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Using Climate Models To Predict Water Supply And Demand In Las Vegas Valley
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Book Synopsis Using Climate Models to Predict Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley by : Ranjan Parajuli
Download or read book Using Climate Models to Predict Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley written by Ranjan Parajuli and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigated the impact of changing climate and growing population on water supply and demand in one of the most rapidly growing cities in the semi-arid regions of western US, Las Vegas Valley (LVV), Nevada. Future scenarios of supply and demand using climate and hydrological models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and a more recent CMIP5 have been evaluated and a comparison of their results has been made. A system dynamics model for LVV was developed with a period of study from 1989 to 2049. For the study area, climate and hydrological data projections for the future period (2013-2049) were obtained from the outputs of 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of CMIP3 model ensemble with 3 emission scenarios and that from 37 GCMs of CMIP5 model ensemble with 4 Representative concentration pathways. Population growth forecast by Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) and prevalent conservation practices by Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) were used for the model. The water availability scenario in the future for LVV in the form of Lake Mead elevation was assessed and the water demand was also predicted. This study found that mean lake elevation for the future period (2013-2049) can go as low as 21.8% lesser than that for the historical period (1989-2012). 59 of 97 projections of CMIP5 models against 27 of 48 projections of CMIP3 models indicated that the future mean lake elevation would be lower than the historical mean. Demand forecasts showed Southern Nevada Water Authority conservation goal for 2035 could be met under prevalent conservation practices. This study can be very useful for the water managers and planners to predict the future water budget, plan accordingly, and make decisions to achieve water sustainability. This study has been performed as a part of the Thriving Earth Exchange (TEX) program to assess the current vulnerability of LVV to drought, and the impact on supply and demand of water resources for the future climate scenarios.
Book Synopsis Analysis and Modelling of Water Supply and Demand Under Climate Change, Land Use Transformation and Socio-Economic Development by : Katharina Fricke
Download or read book Analysis and Modelling of Water Supply and Demand Under Climate Change, Land Use Transformation and Socio-Economic Development written by Katharina Fricke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-12 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Located in a narrow grassland corridor between the semi-desert and a mountain range in Northwest China, the research area Urumqi Region is despite its semi-arid climate in a relatively favourable hydrological situation. The nearby mountains provide water for settlements and agriculture, making human development possible in the first place. Due to the development of agriculture, population and economy during the last sixty years and the increasing water consumption, a demand- and population-driven water scarcity exists today and is expected to aggravate. At the same time, the effects of climate change and land use transformations on the hydrological system and the water availability are uncertain. This study evaluates the recent and future situation by combining a hydrological water balance model for the simulation of the water supply based on scenarios of climate and land use change with a socio-economic model for projecting the future water demand including predicted growth of population and economy.
Book Synopsis Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources by : C. Fai Fung
Download or read book Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources written by C. Fai Fung and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-05 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and water resources management requires knowledge of climate, hydro(geo)logical and water resources models, and particularly the relationships between each of them. This book brings together world experts on each of these aspects, distilling each complex topic into concise and easy to understand chapters, in which both the uses and limitations of modelling are explored. The book concludes with a set of case studies using real-life examples to illustrate the steps required and the problems that can be faced in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on water resource systems. For students, scientists, engineers and decision-makers alike, this book provides an invaluable and critical look at the information that is provided by climate models, and the ways it is used in modelling water systems. A key focus is the exploration of how uncertainties may accrue at each stage of an impacts assessment, and the reliability of the resulting information. The book is a practical guide to understanding the opportunities and pitfalls in the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in the water resource sector.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Urban Water Demand by : R. Bruce Billings
Download or read book Forecasting Urban Water Demand written by R. Bruce Billings and published by American Water Works Association. This book was released on 2011-01-12 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Urban Water Use by : Trevor C. Hughes
Download or read book Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Urban Water Use written by Trevor C. Hughes and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Modeling Environmental Change by : Elizabeth Allen
Download or read book Modeling Environmental Change written by Elizabeth Allen and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication introduces policy makers and natural resource managers to the use of scenarios in environmental modeling. Managers increasingly recognize that the climate is changing and that those changes pose a threat that must be understood in more detail and incorporated into planning decisions at all scales. High quality information about likely environmental change impacts is critically important to help decision-makers address risks in an adaptive manner. To provide concrete examples of the types of scenarios that may be considered in making management decisions, we draw from the 2016 Columbia River Basin Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast, which the Washington Department of Ecology publishes every five years to assist stakeholders in planning for future water resource conditions. There are many different approaches to developing and testing scenarios to inform decision-making. When decision-makers understand how scenarios are developed and how models are run, they can better use model outputs to inform their management decisions.
Download or read book Environment written by Peter H. Raven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-12-17 with total page 1166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Raven's 8th edition of Environment offers more detailed content than the Visualizing text for a better understanding and integration of the core environmental systems and to view and analyze the role those systems play. Shorter, but still comprehensive coverage focuses on ethical decision making and key local environmental science issues, requiring readers to think critically about the course material outside of the classroom. Other features include brief text in the comprehensive segment; extensive chapter pedagogy to help reinforce the systems approach; more opportunities to think critically about the how systems intersect and fit together; and new data interpretation questions at the end of each chapter"--
Book Synopsis Climate Change and Water Resources by : Kathleen A. Miller
Download or read book Climate Change and Water Resources written by Kathleen A. Miller and published by American Water Works Association. This book was released on 2006 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this project was to produce a succinct, educational report (Primer) for use by the drinking water utility industry outlining the current state of scientific understanding regarding the potential impacts of global climate change on water utilities, water supply, demand, and relevant water quality. Utilizing input from industry and science participants, the report includes a summary of the relevant science that explains the linkages between climate change and the hydrologic cycle and outlines what is known and unknown about future changes in regional hydrologic conditions. The report also discusses planning and response strategies. Contains CD with the full searchable Primer, with extensive links to additional reference materials; color pages throughout.
Book Synopsis Hydrologic Models and Analysis of Water Availability in Cuyama Valley, California by :
Download or read book Hydrologic Models and Analysis of Water Availability in Cuyama Valley, California written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changes in population, agricultural development practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in the Cuyama Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in Santa Barbara County. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that could be considered in the evaluation of the sustainable water supply. The Cuyama Valley Hydrologic Model (CUVHM) was designed to simulate the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including components dependent on variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help to improve planning for future conditions. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a precipitation-runoff model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM). The hydrologic models were calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use and, then, used to assess the use and movement of water throughout the Valley. These tools provide a means to understand the evolution of water use in the Valley, its availability, and the limits of sustainability. The conceptual model identified inflows and outflows that include the movement and use of water in both natural and anthropogenic systems. The groundwater flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence that--in combination with the effects of groundwater pumping, natural recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface--displays vertical hydraulic-head gradients. Overall, most of the agricultural demand for water in the Cuyama Valley in the initial part of the growing season is supplied by groundwater, which is augmented by precipitation during wet winter and spring seasons. In addition, the amount of groundwater used for irrigation varies from year to year in response to climate variation and can increase dramatically in dry years. Model simulation results, however, also indicated that irrigation may have been less efficient during wet years. Agricultural pumpage is a major component to simulated outflow that is often poorly recorded. Therefore, an integrated, coupled farm-process model is used to estimate historical pumpage for water-balance subregions that evolved with the development of groundwater in the Valley from 1949 through 2010. The integrated hydrologic model includes these water-balance subregions and delineates natural, municipal, and agricultural land use; streamflow networks; and groundwater flow systems. The redefinition of the geohydrologic framework (including the internal architecture of the sedimentary units) and incorporation of these units into the simulation of the regional groundwater flow system indicated that faults have compartmentalized the alluvial deposits into subregions, which have responded differently to regional groundwater flow, locations of recharge, and the effects of development. The Cuyama Valley comprises nine subregions grouped into three regional zones, the Main, Ventucopa Uplands, and Sierra Madre Foothills, which are fault bounded, represent different proportions of the three alluvial aquifers, and have different water quality. The CUVHM uses MF-OWHM to simulate and assess the use and movement of water, including the evolution of land use and related water-balance regions. The model is capable of being accurate at annual to interannual time frames and at subregional to valley-wide spatial scales, which allows for analysis of the groundwater hydrologic budget for the water years 1950-2010, as well as potential assessment of the sustainable use of groundwater. Simulated changes in storage over time showed that significant withdrawals from storage generally occurred not only during drought years (1976-77 and 1988-92) but also during the early stages of industrial agriculture, which was initially dominated by alfalfa production. Since the 1990s, agriculture has shifted to more water-intensive crops. Measured and simulated groundwater levels indicated substantial declines in selected subregions, mining of groundwater that is thousands to tens of thousands of years old, increased groundwater storage depletion, and land subsidence. Most of the recharge occurs in the upland regions of Ventucopa and Sierra Madre Foothills, and the largest fractions of pumpage and storage depletion occur in the Main subregion. The long-term imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in simulated overdraft (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin over the 61-year period of 1949-2010. Changes in storage varied considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatically driven factors can greatly affect inflows, outflows, and water use by more than a factor of two between wet and dry years. Although precipitation during inter-decadal wet years previously replenished the basin, the water use and storage depletion have lessened the effects of these major recharge events. Simulated and measured water-level altitudes indicated the presence of large areas where depressed water levels have resulted in large desaturated zones in the younger and Older Alluvium layers in the Main-zone subregions. The results of modeled projection of the base-case scenario 61 years into the future indicated that current supply-and-demand are unsustainable and will result in additional groundwater-level declines and related storage depletion and land subsidence. The reduced-supply and reduced-demand projections reduced groundwater storage depletion but may not allow for sustainable agriculture under current demands, agricultural practices, and land use.
Book Synopsis Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources by : Komaragiri Srinivasa Raju
Download or read book Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources written by Komaragiri Srinivasa Raju and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-12-29 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives an overview of various aspects of climate change by integrating global climate models, downscaling approaches, and hydrological models. It also covers themes that help in understanding climate change in a holistic manner. The book includes worked-out examples, revision questions, exercise problems, and case studies, making it relevant for use as a textbook in graduate courses and professional development programs. The book will serve well researchers, students, as well as professionals working in the area of hydroclimatology.
Book Synopsis Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty by : National Research Council
Download or read book Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1991-02-01 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The question of whether the earth's climate is changing in some significant human-induced way remains a matter of much debate. But the fact that climate is variable over time is well known. These two elements of climatic uncertainty affect water resources planning and management in the American West. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty examines the scientific basis for predictions of climate change, the implications of climate uncertainty for water resources management, and the management options available for responding to climate variability and potential climate change.
Book Synopsis Climate, Climatic Change, and Water Supply by : National Research Council
Download or read book Climate, Climatic Change, and Water Supply written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1977-02-01 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Water Demand Forecasting by : V. Gardiner
Download or read book Water Demand Forecasting written by V. Gardiner and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1986-06-30 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an outcome of the workshop on water demand forecasting in 1985. It summarises the 'state-of-the-art' in water demand forecasting, and identifies some of its links with environmental issues. The book discusses some of the issues raised in more detail and provides case studies.
Book Synopsis Preparing Water Supply Systems for Climate Change by : Leslie DeCristofaro
Download or read book Preparing Water Supply Systems for Climate Change written by Leslie DeCristofaro and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fresh water is a resource strongly impacted by climactic conditions. Water supply systems in the northeastern United States will see the effects of climate change on their water quality and quantity in various ways, including changes in seasonality of flows, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, and changes in the variability of precipitation and water availability. Five northeastern water supplies examined are expected to maintain at least 95% monthly reliability over a range of climates wider than the current projections. However, model results indicate that turbidity levels in New York City's Ashokan Reservoir will change with changes in mean annual precipitation and temperature. Through a series of linked models of stochastic weather, hydrologic processes, and the supply system, Chapter 2 demonstrates the robustness of several adaptations available to the New York City Water Supply System to mitigate drought and manage water quality under climate change projections through the end of the century. Results illustrate how reducing demand and managing storage and releases based on hydrologic forecasting reduce the frequency of drought warnings and emergencies and improve system reliability in all climate change scenarios investigated. Through operations that limit turbidity propagation through the system and improvements to the Catskill Aqueduct to lower the minimum flow under conditions with high turbidity, results demonstrate decreases lower turbidity loads and a reduction in emergency Alum use. These options demonstrate cumulative benefits when used in combination. Chapter 3 seeks to quantify the amount of water supply system performance improvement that can be expected from improved forecasting in managing drought conditions. Using existing forecasts for Lancaster, PA, synthetic forecasts with varying quality, and a system model of the Baltimore, MD water supply system, this chapter demonstrated a method for quantifying improved system performance as a function of improved forecast quality, finding improvements in system performance to be approximately linear over a large range of forecast quality. Chapter 4 tests a new method for the creation of statistical first-order autoregressive streamflow forecasts by conditioning the parameters and ensemble variance on a "hydrologic regime," defined in several different ways. National Weather Service seasonal outlooks for precipitation are used as categorical forecasts of precipitation. The forecasts are found to have small positive skill, and for two of three sites, this skill is enough to result in small gains in the CRPSS of the ensemble hydrologic forecast. Utilizing perfect categorical forecasts indicates that adjusting the ensemble variance (rather than the autoregressive parameter) based on forecasted precipitation is responsible for the majority of improvements in skill for this method. The method is limited by the difficulty of long lead-time precipitation forecasting.
Book Synopsis Estimating Future Water Demand for San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District by : Michelle E. Miro
Download or read book Estimating Future Water Demand for San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District written by Michelle E. Miro and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Water agencies in California regularly evaluate the water supply reliability for their service areas in an Urban Water Management Plan which is updated every five years. These plans generally compare the total demand for the agency with the total anticipated water supplies available to the agency. A careful evaluation of supply and demand projections can be used to help identify any vulnerabilities and can be used by decisionmakers to make more informed decisions about investments in water use efficiency and new supplies. The San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District (Valley District) is taking the first step in a comprehensive evaluation of its supplies and demands by evaluating the demand projections used in its service area. The RAND Corporation provided an independent evaluation of the long-term demand methodology and assumptions used by Valley District's retail agencies, and then developed a single consolidated approach that reflects additional drivers and accounts for uncertainties in these drivers. The study team then used this approach to develop new demand forecasts for each retail agency that reflect a range of plausible future drivers of demand, including climate, population growth and per capita water use. This broader range of plausible future water demands was then analyzed with the goal of helping the Valley District better understand how water demand could evolve in the coming decades. This report suggests that the Valley District incorporate the demand forecasting approach developed in this study in future Regional Urban Water Management Plans. The analysis presented in this report also shows that the Valley District could monitor the drivers of water demand, including population growth, water use rates and temperature, to ensure the Valley District plans for a sufficient buffer between supply and demand into the future. This report is also relevant to water management efforts more broadly, as water supply agencies in California and the Western United States face similar uncertainties around water demand that impact their planning and management decisions.
Book Synopsis Abstracts, Annual Water Resources Conference of the American Water Resources Association : November 16-19, 1998, Point Clear, Alabama by : American Water Resources Association. Conference
Download or read book Abstracts, Annual Water Resources Conference of the American Water Resources Association : November 16-19, 1998, Point Clear, Alabama written by American Water Resources Association. Conference and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Urban Water Planning written by and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
