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Uncertainty And Strategic Decision Making
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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making by : Richard J. Arend
Download or read book Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making written by Richard J. Arend and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024-01-03 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Strategic Decision Making by : Kristian J. Sund
Download or read book Uncertainty and Strategic Decision Making written by Kristian J. Sund and published by Emerald Group Publishing Limited. This book was released on 2016-11-14 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, leading researchers on Managerial and Organizational Cognition consider the foundations of individual and social cognition and their effect on strategic decision-making.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Strategic Decision Making by :
Download or read book Uncertainty and Strategic Decision Making written by and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-11-14 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, leading researchers on Managerial and Organizational Cognition consider the foundations of individual and social cognition and their effect on strategic decision-making.
Book Synopsis Managing Risk and Uncertainty by : Richard Friberg
Download or read book Managing Risk and Uncertainty written by Richard Friberg and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-11-13 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.
Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making by : Panagiotis E. Petrakis
Download or read book Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making written by Panagiotis E. Petrakis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making fills an existing gap in understanding three key concepts of business management: entrepreneurship, uncertainty, and strategy. By extending the impact of uncertainty on entrepreneurship and the role of strategy in reducing uncertainty, Petrakis and Konstantakopoulou emphasize that uncertainty can be converted into creative advantage. Given that the business environment is changing both very quickly and very often, any wrong decisions taken can lead to devastation. This exciting new volume explains the reasons why we cannot see the complete the future and our position in it. This uncertainty affects entrepreneurship and how it can be turned into a competitive advantage for businesses sustainability.
Book Synopsis Managerial and Organizational Cognition by : Colin Eden
Download or read book Managerial and Organizational Cognition written by Colin Eden and published by SAGE. This book was released on 1998-03-19 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest in the field of managerial and organizational cognition has been intense over the last few years. This book explores and provides an in-depth overview of the latest developments in the area and presents answers to the questions accompanying its growth: Is the field distinctive? How does it extend our understanding of managerial processes? From different disciplinary perspectives and empirical settings, the contributors study patterns of managerial cognition. In particular, the longitudinal approach reflected in the volume contributes to its impact as a grounded, practice-based analysis of cognition in organizations.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets by : Antonio J. Conejo
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets written by Antonio J. Conejo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.
Book Synopsis Strategic Decision Making by : Simon Haslam
Download or read book Strategic Decision Making written by Simon Haslam and published by Kogan Page Publishers. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Making strategic decisions is a fundamental skill for leaders and managers. However, in a business environment that is in a constant state of change, making strategic decisions has never been more difficult. Strategic Decision Making addresses this challenge by providing a framework that can be used to make sound decisions in an uncertain world. Structured around the core concepts of framing, experimenting and scaling, this book will ensure that efforts are focused where the need is greatest, that interventions are tested, evaluated and revised if necessary and that successful initiatives are effectively rolled out across the business. Packed with real world examples and backed up by academic research, Strategic Decision Making will allow today's leaders and the leaders of tomorrow to make successful and defensible business choices. It shows how to: avoid decision-making bias, overcome organizational inertia, manage the difficulties of rigid organizational structures and avoid being side tracked by outdated or irrelevant experience. Essential reading for business practitioners and management students alike, this comprehensive guide provides a robust approach to achieving strategic success.
Book Synopsis Strategic Decisions by : Vassilis Papadakis
Download or read book Strategic Decisions written by Vassilis Papadakis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past ten years, there has been growing interest in the process of strategic decision-making among both managers and researchers. Strategic decisions are important for five main reasons: They are large-scale, risky and hard to reverse; they are a bridge between deliberate and emerging strategies; they can be a major source of organizational learning; they play an important part in the development of individual managers and they cut accross functions and academic disciplines. Strategic Decisions summarizes the current state of the art in research on strategic decision-making, with chapters prepared by leading strategy researchers. The editors also present implications for current application and proposed directions for future research.
Book Synopsis Strategic Decision Making by : Craig W. Kirkwood
Download or read book Strategic Decision Making written by Craig W. Kirkwood and published by Brooks/Cole. This book was released on 1997 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work on strategic decision making focuses on multi-objective decision analysis with spreadsheets
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Book Synopsis Profiting From Uncertainty by : Paul Schoemaker
Download or read book Profiting From Uncertainty written by Paul Schoemaker and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2012-12-25 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity. Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty. More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can’t do without them.
Author :Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan Publisher :Psychology Press ISBN 13 :9780415369404 Total Pages :312 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (694 download)
Book Synopsis Managing Uncertainties in Networks by : Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan
Download or read book Managing Uncertainties in Networks written by Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite sophisticated technology and knowledge, the strategic networks and games required to solve uncertainties becomes more complex and more important than ever before.
Book Synopsis Multi-objective Decision Analysis by : Clinton W. Brownley
Download or read book Multi-objective Decision Analysis written by Clinton W. Brownley and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2013-03-28 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether managing strategy, operations or products, knowing how to make the best decision in a complex, uncertain business environment is difficult. You might be faced with multiple, competing objectives, which means making trade-offs. To complicate matters, any uncertainty makes it hard to explicitly understand how different objectives will impact potential outcomes. This book will help you face these problems. It provides a decision analysis framework implemented as a simple spreadsheet tool. This multi-objective decision analysis framework helps you to measure trade-offs among objectives and incorporate uncertainties and risk preferences. With this book, you will be able to identify what information is needed to make a decision, define how that information should be combined, and, finally, provide quantifiable evidence to clearly communicate and justify the decision. The process involves minimal overhead and is perfect for busy professionals who need a simple, structured process for making, tracking, and communicating decisions. This process makes decision making more efficient by focusing only on information and factors that are well-defined, measureable, and relevant to the decision at hand. The framework requires clear characterization of a decision, ensuring that it can be traced and is consistent with the intended objectives and organizational values. Using this structured decision-making framework, anyone can consistently make better decisions to gain competitive and strategic advantage.
Download or read book 20/20 Foresight written by Hugh Courtney and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the midst of a changing economy, most executives continue to use a strategy toolkit designed for yesterday's more stable marketplace. As a result, strategies emerge that neither manage the risks nor take advantage of the opportunities that arise in highly uncertain times. Now, McKinsey shows strategists how to tailor every aspect of the decision-making process-from formulation to implementation-to the level of uncertainty faced, describes the strategic-planning processes readers can use to monitor, update, and revise strategies as necessary in volatile markets, and includes a toolkit for identifying, developing, and testing new strategy options-complete with guidelines for applying the right tool to the right situation at the right time. A comprehensive approach to strategy development under all possible levels of uncertainty and across all kinds of industries, this is the essential guide for making tough strategic choices in a changing world. Hugh Courtney is an Associate Principal with the Global Strategy Practice at McKinsey Company in Washington D.C.
