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Uncertainty And Public Investment Multipliers The Role Of Economic Confidence
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Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Public Investment Multipliers: The Role of Economic Confidence by : William Gbohoui
Download or read book Uncertainty and Public Investment Multipliers: The Role of Economic Confidence written by William Gbohoui and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates how macroeconomic uncertainty affects the fiscal multiplier of public investment. In theory, uncertainty can reduce the multiplier if the private sector becomes more cautious and does not respond to the fiscal stimulus. Conversely, it can increase the fiscal multiplier if public investment shocks improve private agents’ expectations about future economic outlook, and lead to larger private spending. Using the disagreement about GDP forecasts as a proxy for uncertainty, we find that unexpected increases in public investment have larger and longer-lasting effects on output, investment, and employment during periods of high uncertainty, with multipliers above 2, and the larger multipliers are not driven by economic slack. Public investment shocks are also found to boost private sector confidence during heightened uncertainty, driving-up expectations about future economic development which in turn magnify private sector response to the initial stimulus.
Book Synopsis How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? by : Ethan Ilzetzki
Download or read book How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? written by Ethan Ilzetzki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fisscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero.
Book Synopsis The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment by : Mr.Abdul Abiad
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-04 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
Book Synopsis The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity by : Richard Hemming
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Book Synopsis Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers? by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers? written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-19 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities can generate more than a dollar’s worth of economic activity. Although not all green and non-ecofriendly expenditures in the dataset are strictly comparable due to data limitations, estimated multipliers associated with spending on renewable and fossil fuel energy investment are comparable, and the former (1.1-1.5) are larger than the latter (0.5-0.6) with over 90 percent probability. These findings survive several robustness checks and lend support to bottom-up analyses arguing that stabilizing climate and reversing biodiversity loss are not at odds with continuing economic advances.
Book Synopsis Making Public Investment More Efficient by :
Download or read book Making Public Investment More Efficient written by and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2015-01-05 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public investment supports the delivery of key public services, connects citizens and firms to economic opportunities, and can serve as an important catalyst for economic growth. After three decades of decline, public investment has begun to recover as a share of GDP in emerging markets (EMs) and low income developing countries (LIDCs), but remains at historic lows in advanced economies (AEs). The increase in public investment in EMs and LIDCs has led to some convergence between richer and poorer countries in the quality of and access to social infrastructure (e.g., schools and hospitals), and, to a lesser extent, economic infrastructure (e.g., roads and electricity). However, the economic and social impact of public investment critically depends on its efficiency. Comparing the value of public capital (input) and measures of infrastructure coverage and quality (output) across countries reveals average inefficiencies in public investment processes of around 30 percent. The economic dividends from closing this efficiency gap are substantial: the most efficient public investors get twice the growth “bang” for their public investment “buck” than the least efficient.
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 1 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 1 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2019-05-21 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on the effects of digitalisation on productivity and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 by : World Bank
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis written by Alberto Alesina and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-25 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484348834 Total Pages :657 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Mastering the Risky Business of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure by : Manal Fouad
Download or read book Mastering the Risky Business of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure written by Manal Fouad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-10 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment in infrastructure can be a driving force of the economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of shrinking fiscal space. Public-private partnerships (PPP) bring a promise of efficiency when carefully designed and managed, to avoid creating unnecessary fiscal risks. But fiscal illusions prevent an understanding the sources of fiscal risks, which arise in all infrastructure projects, and that in PPPs present specific characteristics that need to be addressed. PPP contracts are also affected by implicit fiscal risks when they are poorly designed, particularly when a government signs a PPP contract for a project with no financial sustainability. This paper reviews the advantages and inconveniences of PPPs, discusses the fiscal illusions affecting them, identifies a diversity of fiscal risks, and presents the essentials of PPP fiscal risk management.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1589068068 Total Pages :252 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (89 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2009 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2009 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04-22 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.
Book Synopsis Policy Uncertainty in Japan by : Ms.Elif C Arbatli
Download or read book Policy Uncertainty in Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Book Synopsis The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by : John Maynard Keynes
Download or read book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Macroeconomics by : Olivier Blanchard
Download or read book Macroeconomics written by Olivier Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This print textbook is available for students to rent for their classes. The Pearson print rental program provides students with affordable access to learning materials, so they come to class ready to succeed. For intermediate courses in economics. A unified view of the latest macroeconomic events In Macroeconomics, Blanchard presents an integrated, global view of macroeconomics, enabling students to see the connections between goods markets, financial markets, and labor markets worldwide. Organized into two parts, the text contains a core section that focuses on short-, medium-, and long-run markets and two major extensions that offer more in-depth coverage of the issues at hand. From the major economic crisis that engulfed the world in the late 2000s, to monetary policy in the US, to the problems of the Euro area, and growth in China, the text helps students make sense not only of current macroeconomic events but also of those that may unfold in the future. Integrated, detailed boxes in the 8th Edition have been updated to convey the life of macroeconomics today, reinforce lessons from the models, and help students employ and develop their analytical and evaluative skills. Also available with MyLab Economics By combining trusted author content with digital tools and a flexible platform, MyLab personalizes the learning experience and improves results for each student.
