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Transition Scenarios
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Book Synopsis Transition Scenarios by : David P. Rapkin
Download or read book Transition Scenarios written by David P. Rapkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-09-24 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s rising status in the global economy alongside recent economic stagnation in Europe and the United States has led to considerable speculation that we are in the early stages of a transition in power relations. Commentators have tended to treat this transitional period as a novelty, but history is in fact replete with such systemic transitions—sometimes with perilous results. Can we predict the future by using the past? And, if so, what might history teach us? With Transition Scenarios, David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson identify some predictors for power transitions and take readers through possible scenarios for future relations between China and the United States. Each scenario is embedded within a particular theoretical framework, inviting readers to consider the assumptions underlying it. Despite recent interest in the topic, the probability and timing of a power transition—and the processes that might bring it about—remain woefully unclear. Rapkin and Thompson’s use of the theoretical tools of international relations to crucial transitions in history helps clarify the current situation and also sheds light on possible future scenarios.
Book Synopsis Universal Scenarios of Transitions to Chaos Via Homoclinic Bifurcations by : D. V. Lyubimov
Download or read book Universal Scenarios of Transitions to Chaos Via Homoclinic Bifurcations written by D. V. Lyubimov and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1989 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Energy Transition Metals by : Lukas Boer
Download or read book Energy Transition Metals written by Lukas Boer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-12 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
Book Synopsis Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals by : Sven Teske
Download or read book Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals written by Sven Teske and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-02-01 with total page 491 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents detailed pathways to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050, globally and across ten geographical regions. Based on state-of-the-art scenario modelling, it provides the vital missing link between renewable energy targets and the measures needed to achieve them. Bringing together the latest research in climate science, renewable energy technology, employment and resource impacts, the book breaks new ground by covering all the elements essential to achieving the ambitious climate mitigation targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. For example, sectoral implementation pathways, with special emphasis on differences between developed and developing countries and regional conditions, provide tools to implement the scenarios globally and domestically. Non-energy greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios define a sustainable pathway for land-use change and the agricultural sector. Furthermore, results of the impact of the scenarios on employment and mineral and resource requirements provide vital insight on economic and resource management implications. The book clearly demonstrates that the goals of the Paris Agreement are achievable and feasible with current technology and are beneficial in economic and employment terms. It is essential reading for anyone with responsibility for implementing renewable energy or climate targets internationally or domestically, including climate policy negotiators, policy-makers at all levels of government, businesses with renewable energy commitments, researchers and the renewable energy industry.
Book Synopsis Stability and Transition in Shear Flows by : Peter J. Schmid
Download or read book Stability and Transition in Shear Flows written by Peter J. Schmid and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2000-12-28 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed look at some of the more modern issues of hydrodynamic stability, including transient growth, eigenvalue spectra, secondary instability. It presents analytical results and numerical simulations, linear and selected nonlinear stability methods. By including classical results as well as recent developments in the field of hydrodynamic stability and transition, the book can be used as a textbook for an introductory, graduate-level course in stability theory or for a special-topics fluids course. It is equally of value as a reference for researchers in the field of hydrodynamic stability theory or with an interest in recent developments in fluid dynamics. Stability theory has seen a rapid development over the past decade, this book includes such new developments as direct numerical simulations of transition to turbulence and linear analysis based on the initial-value problem.
Book Synopsis Future Scenarios by : David Holmgren
Download or read book Future Scenarios written by David Holmgren and published by Chelsea Green Publishing. This book was released on 2012-04-04 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of “energy descent” that faces us. “Scenario planning,” Holmgren explains, “allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed.” Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario. As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin website, says, “These aren’t two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures.” Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world’s options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year.
Book Synopsis Development of a Process for Integrated Development and Evaluation of Energy Scenarios for Lower Saxony by : Bernd Engel
Download or read book Development of a Process for Integrated Development and Evaluation of Energy Scenarios for Lower Saxony written by Bernd Engel and published by Cuvillier Verlag. This book was released on 2019-12-11 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the research project NEDS – Sustainable Energy Supply Lower Saxony, conceivable transition paths towards a power supply based on renewable energies in Lower Saxony by 2050 are developed and examined for their sustainability and feasibility. Both the different technical focal points and the joint development of methods and models represent important aspects of the project. A comprehensive method for the integrated development and evaluation of energy scenarios is developed and applied to Lower Saxony. As a basic framework, five future scenarios for the target year 2050 are developed. Based on the qualitative future scenarios and three chosen alternatives, quantitative assumptions are made for the simulation and evaluation. The simulation results of the system model form the basis for the system evaluation. Defined system states for the transition years are simulated and then compared using a multi-criteria decision analysis based on sustainability criteria. In dem Forschungsprojekt NEDS – Nachhaltige Energieversorgung Niedersachsen werden denkbare Transitionspfade hin zu einer auf erneuerbaren Energien basierenden Stromversorgung in Niedersachsen bis 2050 entwickelt und auf ihre Nachhaltigkeit und Umsetzbarkeit untersucht. Sowohl die unterschiedlichen fachlichen Schwerpunkte als auch die gemeinsame Entwicklung von Methodik und Modellen stellen wichtige Aspekte im Projekt dar. Es wird eine umfassende Methodik zur integrierten Entwicklung und Bewertung von Energieszenarien erarbeitet und auf Niedersachsen angewendet. Als Grundgerüst werden fünf Zukunftsszenarien für das Zieljahr 2050 entwickelt. Aus den qualitativen Zukunftsszenarien und drei ausgewählten Alternativen werden quantitative Annahmen für die Simulation und Bewertung erstellt. Die Ergebnisse der Simulationen des Systemmodells bilden die Grundlage für die Systembewertung. Definierte Systemzustände für die Transitionsjahre werden simuliert und anschließend mithilfe einer multikriteriellen Bewertungsmethode anhand von Nachhaltigkeitskriterien verglichen.
Book Synopsis Bank Stress Testing of Physical Risks Under Climate Change Macro Scenarios: Typhoon Risks to the Philippines by : Stephane Hallegatte
Download or read book Bank Stress Testing of Physical Risks Under Climate Change Macro Scenarios: Typhoon Risks to the Philippines written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-08-19 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bank stress tests of climate change risks are relatively new, but are rapidly proliferating. The IMF and World Bank staff collaborated to develop an experimental macro scenario stress testing approach to examine physical risks for banks by building a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model linked to global climate and a catastrophe risk model specifically for the Philippines. Our model shows that the impact of extremely rare typhoons on GDP could already be systemic and worsen substantially with climate change. However, bank capital declines only modestly unless the event is compounded with other disasters, partly thanks to the strength of Philippines’ banks and economy before the COVID crisis. However, more work is needed before drawing strong conclusions about the relevance of climate risk, as the model focused only on typhoons’ physical capital destructions and their macroeconomic-level transmissions to banks.
Download or read book Hydrogen Energy written by Paul Ekins and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-08-12 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hydrogen could be a significant fuel of the future, with the potential to make a major contribution to the resolution of pressing social and environmental problems such as carbon emissions, energy security and local air pollution. This book, based on four years of detailed research, subjects the promise and potential of hydrogen to searching, in-depth socio-economic analysis. It discusses the different technologies for the production, distribution, storage and use of hydrogen, and analyses the economics of these technologies and their current market prospects. It also describes various experiences with aspects of a hydrogen economy in two parts of the world - the UK and Canada - and then assesses the nature of different hydrogen futures that might develop depending on how the technology, economics, social acceptance and policy frameworks play out in different contexts. The book ends by setting out the policy drivers and levers which could stimulate a virtuous circle of research and development, innovation and investment that might ultimately generate a sustainable hydrogen economy. This is essential reading for economists, engineers, business leaders, investors, policy makers, researchers and students who are interested in the future of the energy system and the part that hydrogen might play in it.
Download or read book RED-IMPACT written by Werner von Lensa and published by Forschungszentrum Jülich. This book was released on 2008 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Governing the Energy Transition by : Geert Verbong
Download or read book Governing the Energy Transition written by Geert Verbong and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-03-29 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Energy Transition, the inevitable shift away from cheap, centralized, largely fossil-based energy systems, is one of the core challenges of our time. This book provides a coherent and novel insight into the nature of this challenge and possible strategies to accelerate and guide such transitions. It brings together prominent European scholars and practitioners from the fields of energy transition research and governance to draw attention to the current complex dynamics in the energy domain, and offer elegant and provocative explanations for current crises and lock-ins. They identify multiple energy transition pathways that emerge and increasingly compete, and emphasize the need and possibilities for novel governance. By analysing the complexity of energy transition processes and the difficulties in shifting to sustainable pathways, this text questions the extent to which actually governing energy transitions is already reality, just an illusion, or a bare necessity.
Book Synopsis Geomatic Approaches for Modeling Land Change Scenarios by : María Teresa Camacho Olmedo
Download or read book Geomatic Approaches for Modeling Land Change Scenarios written by María Teresa Camacho Olmedo and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a detailed overview of the concepts, techniques, applications, and methodological approaches involved in land use and cover change (LUCC) modeling, also known simply as land change modeling. More than 40 international experts in this field have participated in this book, which illustrates recent advances in LUCC modeling with examples from North and South America, the Middle East, and Europe. Given the broad range of geomatic approaches available, it helps readers select the approach that best meets their needs. The book is structured into five parts preceded by a foreword written by Roger White and a general introduction. Part I consists of four chapters, each of which focuses on a specific stage in the modeling process: calibration, simulation, validation, and scenarios. It presents and explains the fundamental ideas and concepts underlying LUCC modeling. This is complemented by a comparative analysis of the selected software packages, practically applied in various case studies in Part II and Part III. Part II discusses recently proposed methodological developments that have enhanced modeling procedures and results while Part III offers case studies as well as interesting, innovative methodological proposals. Part IV revises different fundamental techniques used in LUCC modeling and finally Part V describes the best-known software packages used in the applications presented in Parts II and III.
Author :International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA Publisher :International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) ISBN 13 :9292602500 Total Pages :344 pages Book Rating :4.2/5 (926 download)
Book Synopsis Global Renewables Outlook: Energy Transformation 2050 by : International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA
Download or read book Global Renewables Outlook: Energy Transformation 2050 written by International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA and published by International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). This book was released on 2020-04-01 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This outlook highlights climate-safe investment options until 2050, policies for transition and specific regional challenges. It also explores options to eventually cut emissions to zero.
Book Synopsis The Plausibility of Future Scenarios by : Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele
Download or read book The Plausibility of Future Scenarios written by Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele and published by transcript Verlag. This book was released on 2020-07-31 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundations remain unexplored in previous research. Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.
Download or read book Drawdown written by Paul Hawken and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2017-04-18 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: • New York Times bestseller • The 100 most substantive solutions to reverse global warming, based on meticulous research by leading scientists and policymakers around the world “At this point in time, the Drawdown book is exactly what is needed; a credible, conservative solution-by-solution narrative that we can do it. Reading it is an effective inoculation against the widespread perception of doom that humanity cannot and will not solve the climate crisis. Reported by-effects include increased determination and a sense of grounded hope.” —Per Espen Stoknes, Author, What We Think About When We Try Not To Think About Global Warming “There’s been no real way for ordinary people to get an understanding of what they can do and what impact it can have. There remains no single, comprehensive, reliable compendium of carbon-reduction solutions across sectors. At least until now. . . . The public is hungry for this kind of practical wisdom.” —David Roberts, Vox “This is the ideal environmental sciences textbook—only it is too interesting and inspiring to be called a textbook.” —Peter Kareiva, Director of the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA In the face of widespread fear and apathy, an international coalition of researchers, professionals, and scientists have come together to offer a set of realistic and bold solutions to climate change. One hundred techniques and practices are described here—some are well known; some you may have never heard of. They range from clean energy to educating girls in lower-income countries to land use practices that pull carbon out of the air. The solutions exist, are economically viable, and communities throughout the world are currently enacting them with skill and determination. If deployed collectively on a global scale over the next thirty years, they represent a credible path forward, not just to slow the earth’s warming but to reach drawdown, that point in time when greenhouse gases in the atmosphere peak and begin to decline. These measures promise cascading benefits to human health, security, prosperity, and well-being—giving us every reason to see this planetary crisis as an opportunity to create a just and livable world.
Book Synopsis Carbon Risk and Green Finance by : Aaron Ezroj
Download or read book Carbon Risk and Green Finance written by Aaron Ezroj and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-28 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the world plans for economic recovery following the global COVID-19 pandemic, major economies are looking to comprehensive strategies for addressing carbon risks and identifying green finance opportunities. Since Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Michael Bloomberg began tackling climate change as a financial concern, the international financial community has been developing sophisticated analytical tools that will enable the success of comprehensive efforts to address carbon risks and identify green finance opportunities. This timely publication offers a cutting-edge analysis of the financial aspects of climate change. It discusses the most important analytical tools, their origin, how they work, where they can go, and how they fit into a larger strategy. First, reporting frameworks can allow companies to see how well they are addressing carbon risks, in particular with respect to the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. Second, by quantifying how much greenhouse gas companies emit into the atmosphere as a direct or indirect result of their operations, carbon footprint calculations can help identify carbon risks with particular companies, especially within supply chains. Third, brown taxonomies can help investors identify current carbon risks by classifying fossil fuel assets in a systematic manner. Fourth, green taxonomies can help investors identify current green finance opportunities by classifying sustainable activities in a systematic manner. Fifth, scenario analysis for assets can help investors identify future carbon risks and green finance opportunities. Finally, stress testing for liabilities can help insurers and banks address future carbon risks and better inform policymakers. Scholars, policymakers, and business professionals will find this book informative. They will gain a comprehensive understanding of the analytical tools supporting efforts to address carbon risks and identify green finance opportunities. This will hopefully make these individuals more successful in their personal endeavors to build a more sustainable and resilient economy for future generations.
Book Synopsis Youth Unemployment Scenarios by : Maximilian Matschke
Download or read book Youth Unemployment Scenarios written by Maximilian Matschke and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-10-27 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the factors driving youth unemployment in South Africa, exploring potential future outcomes of its mass unemployment, and offering a variety of strategies to avoid an impending crisis in the country. Utilizing scenario analysis rooted in complex systems theory while building on statistical and fi eld research, the author illustrates four possible future states of youth employment in South Africa in the year 2040. This includes the South African version of the Arab Spring, where young people riot or agitate for extreme political and social change because of a belief that access to education and jobs is only possible through social status or corruption (Spring), fair access to a high number of jobs supported by Chinese interventions (Summer), a technology- driven decline in the number of jobs where merit- based access for youth is granted (Fall), and the collapse of the economy, with the economy collapsing and youth becoming increasingly desperate (Winter). The author then presents five strategies to fight youth unemployment, including training of youth to start businesses, stimulating small- and medium- sized enterprises, and sending unemployed youth abroad for skills development and to where their labour is needed. This book will be of interest to scholars of South African politics and economics, labour economics and youth studies, and readers with an interest in tackling youth unemployment independent of the country.
