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Tourism In Sri Lanka And A Computable General Equilibrium Cge Analysis Of The Effects Of Post War Tourism Boom
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Book Synopsis Tourism in Sri Lanka and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Effects of Post-War Tourism Boom by : Sriyantha Fernando
Download or read book Tourism in Sri Lanka and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Effects of Post-War Tourism Boom written by Sriyantha Fernando and published by . This book was released on 2015-11-17 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main objective of this study is two-fold. First, it aims to undertake a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the performance of the Sri Lankan tourism sector using historical data and policy documents and to present a historical narrative on tourism. Second, it aims to analyse the effects of the post-war tourism boom on the Sri Lankan economy within an economy-wide framework by developing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, labelled as SLCGE-Tourism. In the process of achieving the above objectives, the study addressed two knowledge gaps related to Sri Lankan tourism as identified in the literature. The first knowledge gap is that there is a lack of systematic historical analysis of Sri Lankan tourism both in terms of policy and data. This study contributes significantly in addressing this knowledge gap by undertaking a number of complementary analyses. Firstly, it undertakes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of post-independence tourism promotion strategies in the economic development process. It shows that Sri Lanka had many post-independence advantages, especially given its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and on the major air and sea routes between Europe and the Far East. However, it missed opportunities due to inward-oriented development policies implemented by successive governments until 1977 and the three-decade long civil war and other political violence ending in 2009Secondly, it carries out two systematic econometric studies on tourism demand and volatility within the Sri Lankan context by using well-recognised econometric techniques. In the first econometric study, data on monthly tourism arrivals is used to model volatility of tourist arrivals for the first time in the case of Sri Lanka and as such this represents a contribution to the tourism literature in Sri Lanka. As generally accepted, and in common with many other tourist destinations, the empirical results of this study demonstrate that the Sri Lankan tourism industry is very sensitive to political violence, exchange rate changes, and seasonal variations. The analysis suggests that significant increases in political violence lowered tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka and created a substantial amount of volatility in tourism demand. The second econometric study explores empirically whether the targets set in the recent Tourism Development Strategy (TDS) by the Sri Lankan government are achievable or realistic by using a simple econometric model. The econometric analysis suggests that tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka would increase by 26 percent per year if a peaceful environment can be maintained in Sri Lanka. This is broadly consistent with the targets set out in the TDS without the benefit of systematic modelling work. The second knowledge gap was that there was a lack of an integrated economy-wide modelling model capable of use for examining the impact of tourism on the Sri Lankan economy. This study has addressed this knowledge gap by developing a tourism-focused CGE model. Its usefulness has been demonstrated by examining the economy-wide effects of the recent tourism boom and associated policy targets on the Sri Lankan economy in the second part of the thesis. The projected results of the model support the view that tourism can play a major role in the post-war development in Sri Lanka in terms of economic growth and employment generation. However, both the macro and sectoral results demonstrate that the expansion of tourism will not assist the economy without imposing some negative impacts on some other sectors in the economy. It is clear from the results of policy simulations carried out with the model that a tourism boom may lead to 'Dutch disease' type effects. The manufacturing export sectors, such as wearing apparel, may suffer as a result of an appreciation of the real exchange rate due to the tourism boom. The results also demonstrate that positive effects of a tourism boom on the economy would be much stronger.
Book Synopsis An Assessment of the Impacts of Tourism in Sri Lanka by : Sriyantha Fernando
Download or read book An Assessment of the Impacts of Tourism in Sri Lanka written by Sriyantha Fernando and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2017-09-07 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2012 in the subject Tourism - Miscellaneous, Griffith University, course: PhD, language: English, abstract: After the end of nearly three decades of civil war in 2009, Sri Lanka is experiencing a tourism boom with a record level of international tourist arrivals. The Sri Lankan government has now identified tourism as a main component in its post-war development strategy. Despite this new policy enthusiasm there is dearth of research on tourism in Sri Lanka. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to contribute to the literature on tourism in Sri Lanka in a number of ways. First, it provides a systematic historical narrative on Sri Lankan tourism and explains how Sri Lanka missed opportunities in the past. Second, it develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model focusing on tourism and constructs a database with an emphasis on tourism. Third, it examines the economy-wide effects of the post-war tourism boom in Sri Lanka.
Book Synopsis The Tourism-Led Development Strategy in Sri Lanka by : Sriyantha Fernando
Download or read book The Tourism-Led Development Strategy in Sri Lanka written by Sriyantha Fernando and published by . This book was released on 2017-05-09 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2017 in the subject Tourism, University of Kelaniya, language: English, abstract: Sri Lanka has an ability to become one of the best tourism countries in Asia. However, it missed opportunities on a number of occasions due to inappropriate economic policies, continuous political violence and wars. Since 1983 the Sri Lankan tourism sector was seriously affected by the nearly three decades of separatist war which ended in May 2009. Immediately after the end of the war tourism in Sri Lanka bounced back and it now has become the engine of economic growth in post war Sri Lanka. In this paper, a historical analysis has been undertaken to demonstrate how Sri Lanka missmatched their development strategies in terms of tourism, although the country had potential to attract record number of tourists. The post-war tourism boom has given Sri Lankans and the Sri Lankan tourism sector new hopes and optimism. This paper demonstrates that the Sri Lankan tourism sector has potential and opportunities to play a vital role in the post-war inclusive development strategy in terms of generating much needed foreign exchange, poverty alleviation via employment generation, accelerating economic growth and uplifting living standards of all Sri Lankans.
Book Synopsis Tourism Demand, Volatility and Post-War Tourism in Sri Lanka by : Sriyantha Fernando
Download or read book Tourism Demand, Volatility and Post-War Tourism in Sri Lanka written by Sriyantha Fernando and published by . This book was released on 2016-06 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historically Sri Lanka has always been a tourist destination for centuries because of its strategic location and uniqueness. Although Sri Lankan tourism sector has been growing since 1967, International tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka have experienced notable fluctuations during the nearly three decades of civil war, particularly between 1983 and 2009. Sri Lankan tourism has managed to recover quickly since the end of the war in 2009. After recognising the role of post-war tourism, the Sri Lankan government has launched the Tourism Development Strategies (TDS) for the period 2011-2016. Firstly, The paper carried out systematic statistical analysis for Sri Lankan tourism focussing in particular on the civil war and associated political violence. Secondly, the paper empirically explored whether the targets set in the TDS by the Sri Lankan government are achievable or realistic by using a simple econometric model. Furthermore, post-war tourism development and the tourism boom are being evaluated within the context of the current political and economic situation. The empirical results of the first study demonstrating that the Sri Lankan tourism industry is very sensitive to political violence, exchange rate changes, and seasonal variations. The analysis suggests that significant increases in political violence lowered tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka and created a substantial amount of volatility in tourism demand. The results of the second study indicate that the Sri Lankan tourism industry was in a favourable position to achieve the targets until 2014 but missing the targets in 2015 and it is a challenge to achieve of 2.5 million tourism arrivals by 2016. A number of policy inferences can be drawn from this study. Given the limited resources available to the Sri Lankan government and the competing claims on these resources, development of strategies for and active promotion of public-private partnerships aimed at creating new tourism related infrastructure (hotel resorts, cruise line facilities, road transport upgrades, etc.) are recommended. There is should be a consideration for promoting the country as a price competitive and safe tourism destination. Finally, the country has to maintain political stability and work towards reconciliation process with improved governance and maintaining rules of law in order for the development strategy to be fully realised.
Book Synopsis Time Series Behaviour of Burgeoning International Tourist Arrivals in Sri Lanka by : Nisantha Kurukulasooriya
Download or read book Time Series Behaviour of Burgeoning International Tourist Arrivals in Sri Lanka written by Nisantha Kurukulasooriya and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research provides a comprehensive study of time series behavior of the postwar international tourist arrivals. The empirical study is carried out based on outbound tourist arrivals from all origins that create a demand for tourism in Sri Lanka. The time span is covers from July 2009 to June 2013. In the modeling exercise, classical time series decomposition approach is employed. Mann-Kendall test evidenced for existing linear trend while Kruskal-Wallis tests confirmed the seasonality in tourism. Thus, linear trend component and seasonal fluctuations are the two prominent components whereas multiplicative model is comparatively the most accurate model in forecasting. Tourism sector is booming after the war in Sri Lanka with an approximate increase of 1200 tourists per month. Seasonality accounts for over 85 percent of seasonal variation in arrivals and the seasonal pattern which prevailed within the war period has considerably changed to a new behaviour. According to the Gini coefficient, seasonality reached to an equilibrium after the war and hence June, July and October are tourism months. Since the seasonality is a prominent component in international tourist arrivals, the results of the study recommend necessary arrangements to minimize the negative impact of seasonality in arrivals in respective months. Therefore, different categories of travellers should be focused in low demand periods to alleviate negative impact of seasonality.
Book Synopsis Demand, Volatility and Post-war Tourism in Sri Lanka by : Sriyantha Fernando
Download or read book Demand, Volatility and Post-war Tourism in Sri Lanka written by Sriyantha Fernando and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Managing Domestic and International Challenges and Opportunities in Post-conflict Development by : Dushni Weerakoon
Download or read book Managing Domestic and International Challenges and Opportunities in Post-conflict Development written by Dushni Weerakoon and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-05-31 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book draws lessons from the story of Sri Lanka’s post-conflict development in the context of a struggle for socio-political reconciliation, a turbulent world economy, and difficult internal and external political challenges. Heightened volatility in the global economy and intensifying geopolitical rivalries pose complex policy challenges for small countries embarking on post-conflict daunting challenges. To sustain peace, development needed to be broad based and inclusive. It needed to rapidly reconstruct war-devastated regions, restore macroeconomic stability, while delivering a ‘peace dividend’. The book contains contributions that highlight Sri Lanka’s endeavours of coping with adverse shocks, while exploiting new opportunities. It showcases how the island country had to attract capital and assistance, and support of the international community, including that of the rising Asian giants – China and India. Addressing the post-conflict challenges of sourcing development finance in a new global financial and political landscape, the book would be of interest to researchers working on post-conflict development in the context of a volatile global economy and changing aid architecture, and would also act as an important resource for policy makers.
Book Synopsis Forecasting International Tourism Income of Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Forecasting International Tourism Income of Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 3 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth of the tourism industry in Sri Lanka shows the historical development in mainly in two ways. That is the growth of tourist arrivals and income.Tourism impact on the economy of Sri Lanka, which rely heavily on foreign exchange earnings. This has been a general interest of the government. Therefore government needs reliable forecasting to cope with uncertain situations and developing sound strategies to maintain the growth of tourism industry. This study was focused to identify suitable trend model for forecasting international tourism income of Sri Lanka. Monthly income data from 2009 to 2013 were obtained from statistical reports of 2012 and 2013 of Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA). Study concern the period of post war, which is after year 2009. Model fitting was done by utilizing data from January 2009 to April 2012 and data from May 2012 to May 2013 utilized for model verification. Four trend models were tested with log transformation including one linear and three non linear models. Residual plots and Anderson Darling tests for residuals were used as model validation criterion. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by considering Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). Box and whisker plot showed no outliers in the data set. Results revealed that Quadratic Trend Model has least MAPE's in model fitting and verification: 0.90% and 1.12 % respectively. MAD and MSE also confirmed the smallest deviation compared with other trend models. Residual plots and Anderson Darling test confirmed the normality of residuals. Also residuals Vs fits confirmed the independence of residuals. It was concluded that the Quadratic Trend Model with log transformation is suitable for forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka. It is recommended to try other time series techniques namely decomposition techniques, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models etc. to capture the seasonal behavior of the series.
Book Synopsis A Computable General Equilibrium Model of the Sri Lankan Economy with Applications to Analysis of the Effects of the Financial Liberalisation by : Kasipillai Kandiah
Download or read book A Computable General Equilibrium Model of the Sri Lankan Economy with Applications to Analysis of the Effects of the Financial Liberalisation written by Kasipillai Kandiah and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Tourism in Sri Lanka by : Anja Strehlow
Download or read book Tourism in Sri Lanka written by Anja Strehlow and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2009-07-27 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2006 in the subject Tourism - Miscellaneous, grade: 1, University of Hertfordshire, course: Socio-Cultural Impacts of Tourism, language: English, abstract: Whether Tourism is ‘good’ or ‘bad’ has been a topic of discussion and disagreement for several decades. There are two opposing, rather radical points of view: the advocacy platform and the cautionary platform. In this essay both platforms will be explained and illustrated on the example of Sri Lanka.
Book Synopsis The Tourism Industry in the Post-conflict Provinces of Sri Lanka by : Borja Santos Porras
Download or read book The Tourism Industry in the Post-conflict Provinces of Sri Lanka written by Borja Santos Porras and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Managing the Post-War Tourism Development in Sri Lanka by : Sriyantha Fernando
Download or read book Managing the Post-War Tourism Development in Sri Lanka written by Sriyantha Fernando and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Routledge Handbook of Tourism in Asia by : C. Michael Hall
Download or read book The Routledge Handbook of Tourism in Asia written by C. Michael Hall and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-13 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia is regarded as the fastest growing area for international and domestic tourism in the world today and over the next 20 years. Given the economic, social and environmental importance of tourism in the region, there is a need for a comprehensive and readable overview of the critical debates and controversies in tourism in the region and the major factors that are affecting tourism development both now and in the foreseeable future. This Handbook provides a contemporary survey of the region and its continued growth and development as a key destination and generator of tourism, which is marked by a high proportion of intra-regional travel. The book is divided into five sections. This first section provides an introduction to the region and context to the nationally focused chapters. The next three sections are then broadly based on the three UNWTO Asian regions: South-East Asia, South and Central Asia, and East and North-East Asia, providing readers with a valuable snapshot of tourism at various scales, and from various approaches and positions. The concluding section considers future prospects for tourism in Asia. The handbook is interdisciplinary in coverage and is also international in scope through its authorship and content. It presents a range of perspectives and understanding of the processes and forces that are shaping tourism in this fascinating and dynamic region that is one of the focal points of global tourism. This is essential reading for students, researchers and academics interested in tourism in the growth region of Asia now and in the future.
Book Synopsis Lin-Log Model for Forecasting International Tourism Income in Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Lin-Log Model for Forecasting International Tourism Income in Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Income forecasting is an essential discipline in planning and other decision-making processes within any business. Fitting a suitable Lin-log model for forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka is the objective of the study. Monthly income data utilized from January 2009 to December 2013. Data obtained from annual reports of Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with log transformation (Lin-Log Model) was tested on forecasting income at different lags. One way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) technique was used for overall model testing and t-test was used for individual parameter testing. Residual plots and Anderson-Darling test for residuals and the Durbin-Watson test was used as a model validation criterion. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by considering adjusted R2 and three measurements of errors. Box and whisker plot showed no outliers in the data set. Results revealed that Lin-log model was significant at lag 1, 2 and 3. MAPE's of the model in model fitting and verification were 14.86% and 16.63% respectively. Adjusted R2 of the model was 83.6 %. Residual plots and Anderson-Darling tests confirmed the normality of residuals. Also, residuals Vs fits confirmed the independence of residuals. Durbin-Watson statistic confirms the same. It was concluded that the Lin- log model is suitable for forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka. It is recommended to test Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models also on forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka.
Author :Susantha Goonatilake Publisher :Centre for developing-Area Studies, McGill University ISBN 13 :9780888190215 Total Pages :58 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (92 download)
Book Synopsis Tourism in Sri Lanka by : Susantha Goonatilake
Download or read book Tourism in Sri Lanka written by Susantha Goonatilake and published by Centre for developing-Area Studies, McGill University. This book was released on 1978-01-01 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sounding the Alarm written by Sarah Tam and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United Nations has concluded that climate change is unequivocal and without a rapid decarbonization of the global economy there will be risks of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts. The World Bank also emphasized that no scenario exists by which the Sustainable Development Goals of 2030 could be met in a world transformed by climate change. Climate change has already affected the sustainability and competitiveness of global tourism yet it remains to be one of the least prepared economic sectors for the risks and opportunities of climate change. Several studies have highlighted persistent and significant regional knowledge gaps within the scholarship on tourism and climate change - particularly in the South and South-East Asia sub-regions where global tourism is expected to grow the fastest by 2030. Consequently, it is unclear the scale and scope of potential climate change impacts on tourism in these countries or how the tourism sector is planning for climate change in policy and practice. Tourism is Sri Lanka's third largest economic sector and has been earmarked as one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change by the Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment. This thesis fills the regional knowledge gap and examines the preparedness of Sri Lanka's tourism sector at the national scale (Phase I) and the destination level (Phase II). Phase I established the state of knowledge of climate change risks and impacts facing the tourism sector and reviewed the policy coherence between Sri Lanka's national tourism strategy and climate adaptation plan. Phase II examined tourism stakeholder perceptions' of climate change and identified barriers to climate adaptation at the embedded case study site (Unawatuna). This study found that Sri Lanka's tourism sector is not prepared for climate change. The policy review indicated that climate change receives minimal attention in the tourism strategy and therefore does not enable stakeholders to take a proactive and planned approach to adaptation. Interviews suggested that despite being acutely aware of changes in the climate system, climatic conditions were not a priority in the context of other more immediate challenges among tourism stakeholders in Unawatuna. In light of these findings, this thesis recommends the following actions: 1) Conduct research studies to improve understanding of sector relevant climate change risks and impacts; 2) Communicate climate change as a local problem to tourism stakeholders; and, 3) Strengthen institutional capacities to mainstream adaptation. These findings can be used to inform future tourism policies and adaptation plans in Sri Lanka and can offer insight on mainstreaming adaptation in other developing countries facing similar challenges.
Book Synopsis Perceptions of Socio-economic and Cultural Impact of Tourism in Sri Lanka : a Research Study by : Sadrudin A. Ahmed
Download or read book Perceptions of Socio-economic and Cultural Impact of Tourism in Sri Lanka : a Research Study written by Sadrudin A. Ahmed and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
