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Author : Dong Hwan Oh
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (931 download)
Download or read book Time-varying Systemic Risk written by Dong Hwan Oh and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Joseph G. Haubrich
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226921964
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)
Download or read book Quantifying Systemic Risk written by Joseph G. Haubrich and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.
Author : Andreas Jobst
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475505590
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL) written by Andreas Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the externalities caused by impact of the interconnectedness within institutions and markets on funding and market liquidity risk within financial systems. The Systemic Risk-adjusted Liquidity (SRL) model combines option pricing with market information and balance sheet data to generate a probabilistic measure of the frequency and severity of multiple entities experiencing a joint liquidity event. It links a firm’s maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other firms, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price liquidity risk within a macroprudential framework that, if used to motivate a capital charge or insurance premia, provides incentives for liquidity managers to internalize the systemic risk of their decisions. The model can also accommodate a stress testing approach for institution-specific and/or general funding shocks that generate estimates of systemic liquidity risk (and associated charges) under adverse scenarios.
Author : Mr.Raphael A Espinoza
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536176
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics written by Mr.Raphael A Espinoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-03-13 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterparty risk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a “Minsky" cycle of optimism. The empirical model uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equity returns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a bad macro-outcome. Theses “cross-sectional" moments are used to re-calibrate the theoretical model and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemic risk.
Author : Xin Zhang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789036103435
Total Pages : 133 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (34 download)
Download or read book Modeling Time Variation in Systemic Risk written by Xin Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475557531
Total Pages : 93 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
Author : Andrea Ugolini
Publisher : Ed. Universidad de Cantabria
ISBN 13 : 8481028037
Total Pages : 118 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (81 download)
Download or read book Modelling Systemic Risk in Financial Markets written by Andrea Ugolini and published by Ed. Universidad de Cantabria. This book was released on 2017-04-26 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation provides a study on systemic risk in financial markets; it is laid out as follows. Chapter 1 provides a survey of the quantitative measure of systemic risk in the economics and finance literature. In Chapter 2 examine, using conditional VaR (CoVaR), the systemic risk generated by major Spanish financial institutions in the recent global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis as a systemic risk measure. CoVaR was quantified using quantile regression, multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) and copula approaches. We also describe a novel copula-based approach to computing the CoVaR value, given that copula are flexible modellers of joint distribution and are particularly useful for characterizing the tail behaviour that provides such crucial information for the CoVaR.
Author : Mr.Kasper Lund-Jensen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475504578
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Monitoring Systemic Risk Basedon Dynamic Thresholds written by Mr.Kasper Lund-Jensen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Successful implementation of macroprudential policy is contingent on the ability to identify and estimate systemic risk in real time. In this paper, systemic risk is defined as the conditional probability of a systemic banking crisis and this conditional probability is modeled in a fixed effect binary response model framework. The model structure is dynamic and is designed for monitoring as the systemic risk forecasts only depend on data that are available in real time. Several risk factors are identified and it is hereby shown that the level of systemic risk contains a predictable component which varies through time. Furthermore, it is shown how the systemic risk forecasts map into crisis signals and how policy thresholds are derived in this framework. Finally, in an out-of-sample exercise, it is shown that the systemic risk estimates provided reliable early warning signals ahead of the recent financial crisis for several economies.
Author : Stefan Laseen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151357924X
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Systemic Risk written by Stefan Laseen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We introduce time-varying systemic risk in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model to study whether a simple leaning-against-the-wind policy can reduce systemic risk and improve welfare. We find that an unexpected increase in policy rates reduces output, inflation, and asset prices without fundamentally mitigating financial risks. We also find that while a systematic monetary policy reaction can improve welfare, it is too simplistic: (1) it is highly sensitive to parameters of the model and (2) is detrimental in the presence of falling asset prices. Macroprudential policy, similar to a countercyclical capital requirement, is more robust and leads to higher welfare gains.
Author : Mr.Luc Laeven
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484363728
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Bank Size and Systemic Risk written by Mr.Luc Laeven and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-08 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The proposed SDN documents the evolution of bank size and activities over the past 20 years. It discusses whether this evolution can be explained by economies of scale or “too big to fail” subsidies. The paper then presents evidence on the extent to which bank size and market-based activities contribute to systemic risk. The paper concludes with policy messages in the area of capital regulation and activity restrictions to reduce the systemic risk posed by large banks. The analysis of the paper complements earlier Fund work, including SDN 13/04 and the recent GFSR chapter on “too big to fail” subsidies, and its policy message is in line with this earlier work.
Author : Xavier Freixas
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262028697
Total Pages : 487 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)
Download or read book Systemic Risk, Crises, and Macroprudential Regulation written by Xavier Freixas and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-06-19 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A framework for macroprudential regulation that defines systemic risk and macroprudential policy, describes macroprudential tools, and surveys the effectiveness of existing macroprudential regulation. The recent financial crisis has shattered all standard approaches to banking regulation. Regulators now recognize that banking regulation cannot be simply based on individual financial institutions' risks. Instead, systemic risk and macroprudential regulation have come to the forefront of the new regulatory paradigm. Yet our knowledge of these two core aspects of regulation is still limited and fragmented. This book offers a framework for understanding the reasons for the regulatory shift from a microprudential to a macroprudential approach to financial regulation. It defines systemic risk and macroprudential policy, cutting through the generalized confusion as to their meaning; contrasts macroprudential to microprudential approaches; discusses the interaction of macroprudential policy with macroeconomic policy (monetary policy in particular); and describes macroprudential tools and experiences with macroprudential regulation around the world. The book also considers the remaining challenges for establishing effective macroprudential policy and broader issues in regulatory reform. These include the optimal size and structure of the financial system, the multiplicity of regulatory bodies in the United States, the supervision of cross-border financial institutions, and the need for international cooperation on macroprudential policies.
Author : Nikolaus Hautsch
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (115 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Systemic Impact in Financial Networks written by Nikolaus Hautsch and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Daniele Bianchi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Modeling Systemic Risk with Markov Switching Graphical SUR Models written by Daniele Bianchi and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a Markov Switching Graphical Seemingly Unrelated Regression (MS-GSUR) model to investigate time-varying systemic risk based on a range of multi-factor asset pricing models. Methodologically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme in which latent states are identified on the basis of a novel weighted eigenvector centrality measure. An empirical application to the S&P100 constituents shows that cross-firm connectivity significantly increased over the period 1999-2003 and the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Finally, we provide evidence that firm-level centrality does not correlate with market values and is instead positively linked to realized financial losses.
Author : Mr.Ivailo Arsov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484343786
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Near-Coincident Indicators of Systemic Stress written by Mr.Ivailo Arsov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-17 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative has called for the IMF to develop standard measures of tail risk, which we identify in this paper with systemic risk. To understand the conditions under which tail risk is present, it is first necessary to develop a measure of what constitutes a systemic stress, or tail, event. We develop such a measure and uses it to assess the performance of eleven near-term systemic risk indicators as ‘early’ warning of distress among top financial institutions in the United States and the euro area. Two indicators perform particularly well in both regions, and a couple of other simple indicators do well across a number of criteria. We also find that the sizes of institutions do not necessarily correspond with their contribution to spillover risk. Some practical guidance for policies is provided.
Author : Champa Wijethunga
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 11 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Time Varying Estimate of Beta (Systemic Risk) written by Champa Wijethunga and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates the time varying behavior of betas (Systematic risk) in Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE). The study used the trading data of 26 stocks listed in Bank Finance & Insurance, Hotels & Travel, and Manufacturing sectors for a period of 9 years for the analysis from 2005 to 2013. This study estimates time varying betas using two different approaches; Recursive regression and Rolling regression. These two different approaches are employed in order to estimate and analyze the time varying betas of 26 stocks under full period and three sub periods as 2005-2007, 2008-2010, and 2011-2013. The empirical finding of this study provides a clear evidence of time varying nature of 26 betas and indicates increasing and decreasing beta trends. It is also found that beta values varied across the techniques used to estimate the betas. Finally, finding suggests that, similar to some other evidences in developed and emerging markets, betas are not stable and demonstrate time varying nature in the CSE. The findings imply that the assumption of beta constancy is not valid in Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) and the users of this model in estimating the systematic risk in CSE will not get the anticipated results.
Author : Stijn Claessens
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475733143
Total Pages : 461 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book International Financial Contagion written by Stijn Claessens and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 461 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No sooner had the Asian crisis broken out in 1997 than the witch-hunt started. With great indignation every Asian economy pointed fingers. They were innocent bystanders. The fundamental reason for the crisis was this or that - most prominently contagion - but also the decline in exports of the new commodities (high-tech goods), the steep rise of the dollar, speculators, etc. The prominent question, of course, is whether contagion could really have been the key factor and, if so, what are the channels and mechanisms through which it operated in such a powerful manner. The question is obvious because until 1997, Asia's economies were generally believed to be immensely successful, stable and well managed. This question is of great importance not only in understanding just what happened, but also in shaping policies. In a world of pure contagion, i.e. when innocent bystanders are caught up and trampled by events not of their making and when consequences go far beyond ordinary international shocks, countries will need to look for better protective policies in the future. In such a world, the international financial system will need to change in order to offer better preventive and reactive policy measures to help avoid, or at least contain, financial crises.
Author : Xavier Freixas
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262549018
Total Pages : 487 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)
Download or read book Systemic Risk, Crises, and Macroprudential Regulation written by Xavier Freixas and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2023-08-22 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A framework for macroprudential regulation that defines systemic risk and macroprudential policy, describes macroprudential tools, and surveys the effectiveness of existing macroprudential regulation. The recent financial crisis has shattered all standard approaches to banking regulation. Regulators now recognize that banking regulation cannot be simply based on individual financial institutions' risks. Instead, systemic risk and macroprudential regulation have come to the forefront of the new regulatory paradigm. Yet our knowledge of these two core aspects of regulation is still limited and fragmented. This book offers a framework for understanding the reasons for the regulatory shift from a microprudential to a macroprudential approach to financial regulation. It defines systemic risk and macroprudential policy, cutting through the generalized confusion as to their meaning; contrasts macroprudential to microprudential approaches; discusses the interaction of macroprudential policy with macroeconomic policy (monetary policy in particular); and describes macroprudential tools and experiences with macroprudential regulation around the world. The book also considers the remaining challenges for establishing effective macroprudential policy and broader issues in regulatory reform. These include the optimal size and structure of the financial system, the multiplicity of regulatory bodies in the United States, the supervision of cross-border financial institutions, and the need for international cooperation on macroprudential policies.
