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Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions And Monetary Policy
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Book Synopsis Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis by : Lutz Kilian
Download or read book Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis written by Lutz Kilian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 757 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics by : Gary Koop
Download or read book Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics written by Gary Koop and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.
Book Synopsis Classical Time-Varying FAVAR Models - Estimation, Forecasting and Structural Analysis by : Sandra Eickmeier
Download or read book Classical Time-Varying FAVAR Models - Estimation, Forecasting and Structural Analysis written by Sandra Eickmeier and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a classical approach to estimate factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models with time variation in the factor loadings, in the factor dynamics, and in the variance-covariance matrix of innovations. When the time-varying FAVAR is estimated using a large quarterly dataset of US variables from 1972 to 2007, the results indicate some changes in the factor dynamics, and more marked variation in the factors' shock volatility and their loading parameters. Forecasts from the time-varying FAVAR are more accurate than those from a constant parameter FAVAR for most variables and horizons when computed insample, for some variables in pseudo real time, mostly financial indicators. Finally, we use the time-varying FAVAR to assess how monetary transmission to the economy has changed. We find substantial time variation in the volatility of monetary policy shocks, and we observe that the reaction of GDP, the GDP deflator, inflation expectations and long-term interest rates to an equally-sized monetary policy shock has decreased since the early-1980s.
Book Synopsis Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis by : Lutz Kilian
Download or read book Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis written by Lutz Kilian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 757 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for empirical work in macroeconomics, finance, and related fields. This book not only reviews the many alternative structural VAR approaches discussed in the literature, but also highlights their pros and cons in practice. It provides guidance to empirical researchers as to the most appropriate modeling choices, methods of estimating, and evaluating structural VAR models. The book traces the evolution of the structural VAR methodology and contrasts it with other common methodologies, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is intended as a bridge between the often quite technical econometric literature on structural VAR modeling and the needs of empirical researchers. The focus is not on providing the most rigorous theoretical arguments, but on enhancing the reader's understanding of the methods in question and their assumptions. Empirical examples are provided for illustration.
Book Synopsis Asset Price Bubbles by : William Curt Hunter
Download or read book Asset Price Bubbles written by William Curt Hunter and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.
Book Synopsis Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova by : Juan J. Dolado
Download or read book Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova written by Juan J. Dolado and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-09-21 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both parts of Volume 44 of Advances in Econometrics pay tribute to Fabio Canova for his major contributions to economics over the last four decades.
Book Synopsis Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR by : Woon Gyu Choi
Download or read book Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR written by Woon Gyu Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to demand shocks than to supply shocks, and more aggressive toward inflation than output growth. Our estimated dynamic policy coefficients characterize the style of policy as a "bang-bang" control for the pre-1979 period and as a gradual control for the post-1979 period.
Download or read book Okun's Law written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-14 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
Book Synopsis Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR by : Woon Gyu Choi
Download or read book Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR written by Woon Gyu Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to demand shocks than to supply shocks, and more aggressive toward inflation than output growth. Our estimated dynamic policy coefficients characterize the style of policy as a "bang-bang" control for the pre-1979 period and as a gradual control for the post-1979 period.
Book Synopsis Statistical Modeling and Computation by : Dirk P. Kroese
Download or read book Statistical Modeling and Computation written by Dirk P. Kroese and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-18 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook on statistical modeling and statistical inference will assist advanced undergraduate and graduate students. Statistical Modeling and Computation provides a unique introduction to modern Statistics from both classical and Bayesian perspectives. It also offers an integrated treatment of Mathematical Statistics and modern statistical computation, emphasizing statistical modeling, computational techniques, and applications. Each of the three parts will cover topics essential to university courses. Part I covers the fundamentals of probability theory. In Part II, the authors introduce a wide variety of classical models that include, among others, linear regression and ANOVA models. In Part III, the authors address the statistical analysis and computation of various advanced models, such as generalized linear, state-space and Gaussian models. Particular attention is paid to fast Monte Carlo techniques for Bayesian inference on these models. Throughout the book the authors include a large number of illustrative examples and solved problems. The book also features a section with solutions, an appendix that serves as a MATLAB primer, and a mathematical supplement.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Volatility by : Neil Shephard
Download or read book Stochastic Volatility written by Neil Shephard and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2005 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic volatility is the main concept used in the fields of financial economics and mathematical finance to deal with time-varying volatility in financial markets. This work brings together some of the main papers that have influenced this field, andshows that the development of this subject has been highly multidisciplinary.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics by : Nigar Hashimzade
Download or read book Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics written by Nigar Hashimzade and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 627 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook concentrates on the most important issues, models and techniques for research in macroeconomics, and highlights the core methodologies and their empirical application in an accessible manner. Each chapter is largely self-contained, whilst the comprehensive introduction provides an overview of the key statistical concepts and methods. All of the chapters include the essential references for each topic and provide a sound guide for further reading. Topics covered include unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks, time aggregation, forecasting, the Kalman filter, generalised method of moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation, vector autoregressive, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and dynamic panel models. Presenting the most important models and techniques for empirical research, this Handbook will appeal to students, researchers and academics working in empirical macro and econometrics.
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference on Bigdata Blockchain and Economy Management (ICBBEM 2022) by : Daowen Qiu
Download or read book Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference on Bigdata Blockchain and Economy Management (ICBBEM 2022) written by Daowen Qiu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-12-28 with total page 1730 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access book. As a leading role in the global megatrend of scientific innovation, China has been creating a more and more open environment for scientific innovation, increasing the depth and breadth of academic cooperation, and building a community of innovation that benefits all. These endeavors have made new contribution to globalization and creating a community of shared future. With the rapid development of modern economic society, in the process of economic management, informatization has become the mainstream of economic development in the future. At the same time, with the emergence of advanced management technologies such as blockchain technology and big data technology, real market information can be quickly obtained in the process of economic management, which greatly reduces the operating costs of the market economy and effectively enhances the management level of operators, thus contributing to the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the market economy. Under the new situation, the innovative application of economic management research is of great practical significance. 2022 International Conference on Bigdata, Blockchain and Economic Management (ICBBEM 2022) will be held on March 25–27, 2022 in Wuhan, China. ICBBEM 2022 will focus on the latest fields of Bigdata, Blockchain and Economic Management to provide an international platform for experts, professors, scholars and engineers from universities, scientific institutes, enterprises and government-affiliated institutions at home and abroad to share experiences, to expand professional fields, to exchange new ideas face to face, to present research results, and to discuss the key challenging issues and research directions facing the development of this field, with a view to promoting the development and application of theories and technologies in universities and enterprises.
Book Synopsis Structural Macroeconometrics by : David N. DeJong
Download or read book Structural Macroeconometrics written by David N. DeJong and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-03 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The revised edition of the essential resource on macroeconometrics Structural Macroeconometrics provides a thorough overview and in-depth exploration of methodologies, models, and techniques used to analyze forces shaping national economies. In this thoroughly revised second edition, David DeJong and Chetan Dave emphasize time series econometrics and unite theoretical and empirical research, while taking into account important new advances in the field. The authors detail strategies for solving dynamic structural models and present the full range of methods for characterizing and evaluating empirical implications, including calibration exercises, method-of-moment procedures, and likelihood-based procedures, both classical and Bayesian. The authors look at recent strides that have been made to enhance numerical efficiency, consider the expanded applicability of dynamic factor models, and examine the use of alternative assumptions involving learning and rational inattention on the part of decision makers. The treatment of methodologies for obtaining nonlinear model representations has been expanded, and linear and nonlinear model representations are integrated throughout the text. The book offers a rich array of implementation algorithms, sample empirical applications, and supporting computer code. Structural Macroeconometrics is the ideal textbook for graduate students seeking an introduction to macroeconomics and econometrics, and for advanced students pursuing applied research in macroeconomics. The book's historical perspective, along with its broad presentation of alternative methodologies, makes it an indispensable resource for academics and professionals.
Book Synopsis The Next Great Globalization by : Frederic S. Mishkin
Download or read book The Next Great Globalization written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-10-08 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many prominent critics regard the international financial system as the dark side of globalization, threatening disadvantaged nations near and far. But in The Next Great Globalization, eminent economist Frederic Mishkin argues the opposite: that financial globalization today is essential for poor nations to become rich. Mishkin argues that an effectively managed financial globalization promises benefits on the scale of the hugely successful trade and information globalizations of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This financial revolution can lift developing nations out of squalor and increase the wealth and stability of emerging and industrialized nations alike. By presenting an unprecedented picture of the potential benefits of financial globalization, and by showing in clear and hard-headed terms how these gains can be realized, Mishkin provides a hopeful vision of the next phase of globalization. Mishkin draws on historical examples to caution that mismanagement of financial globalization, often aided and abetted by rich elites, can wreak havoc in developing countries, but he uses these examples to demonstrate how better policies can help poor nations to open up their economies to the benefits of global investment. According to Mishkin, the international community must provide incentives for developing countries to establish effective property rights, banking regulations, accounting practices, and corporate governance--the institutions necessary to attract and manage global investment. And the West must be a partner in integrating the financial systems of rich and poor countries--to the benefit of both. The Next Great Globalization makes the case that finance will be a driving force in the twenty-first-century economy, and demonstrates how this force can and should be shaped to the benefit of all, especially the disadvantaged nations most in need of growth and prosperity.
Book Synopsis Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness by : Francis X. Diebold
Download or read book Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.
Book Synopsis Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
