Three Essays On The Pricing And Management Of Credit Risk

Author : Mirela Raluca Predescu Vasvari
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780494219478
Total Pages : 234 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (194 download)

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Download or read book Three Essays in Credit Risk written by Mirela Raluca Predescu Vasvari and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays in credit risk. The first essay examines the relationship between credit default swap (CDS) spreads and bond yields as well as the relationship between CDS spreads and credit rating announcements. We test the no-arbitrage theoretical relationship between CDS spreads and bond yields and reach conclusions on the benchmark risk-free rate used by participants in the credit derivatives market. We then carry out a series of tests to explore the extent to which credit rating announcements by Moody's are anticipated by participants in the credit default swap market. The third essay extends the 1976 Black and Cox structural model in order to value correlation-dependent credit derivatives. The proposed model assumes that the correlations between the assets of the obligors are determined by one or more common factors. We first implement a base case model where the asset correlations and recovery rates are constant. We compare our model with the widely used Gaussian copula model of survival time and test how well our model fits market prices of CDO tranches. We then consider two extensions of the base case model. One reflects empirical research showing that default correlations are positively dependent on default rates. The other reflects empirical research showing that recovery rates are negatively dependent on default rates. The second essay investigates the performance of structural models of credit risk along two dimensions. First, I analyze the models' ability to explain CDS spreads. I find that the pricing accuracy of structural models depends heavily on the market information set used in the estimation. Incorporating past time series of CDS spreads in addition to equity and balance sheet information improves the out-of-sample model pricing performance by 50%. Second, I investigate the incremental value of structural models above and beyond CDS spreads in predicting credit ratings migrations. I find evidence that three-month changes in the Distance to Default (DD) have incremental value for anticipating rating downgrades over and above changes in CDS spreads. However, this is not the case for one-month changes in DD.