Three Essays On The Application Of The Markov Switching Multifractal Model

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Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis

Author : Marc S. Paolella
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119431859
Total Pages : 900 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis by : Marc S. Paolella

Download or read book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis written by Marc S. Paolella and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-10-10 with total page 900 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and timely edition on an emerging new trend in time series Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH sets a strong foundation, in terms of distribution theory, for the linear model (regression and ANOVA), univariate time series analysis (ARMAX and GARCH), and some multivariate models associated primarily with modeling financial asset returns (copula-based structures and the discrete mixed normal and Laplace). It builds on the author's previous book, Fundamental Statistical Inference: A Computational Approach, which introduced the major concepts of statistical inference. Attention is explicitly paid to application and numeric computation, with examples of Matlab code throughout. The code offers a framework for discussion and illustration of numerics, and shows the mapping from theory to computation. The topic of time series analysis is on firm footing, with numerous textbooks and research journals dedicated to it. With respect to the subject/technology, many chapters in Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis cover firmly entrenched topics (regression and ARMA). Several others are dedicated to very modern methods, as used in empirical finance, asset pricing, risk management, and portfolio optimization, in order to address the severe change in performance of many pension funds, and changes in how fund managers work. Covers traditional time series analysis with new guidelines Provides access to cutting edge topics that are at the forefront of financial econometrics and industry Includes latest developments and topics such as financial returns data, notably also in a multivariate context Written by a leading expert in time series analysis Extensively classroom tested Includes a tutorial on SAS Supplemented with a companion website containing numerous Matlab programs Solutions to most exercises are provided in the book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH is suitable for advanced masters students in statistics and quantitative finance, as well as doctoral students in economics and finance. It is also useful for quantitative financial practitioners in large financial institutions and smaller finance outlets.

Volatility and Correlation

Author : Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470091401
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Correlation by : Riccardo Rebonato

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444627405
Total Pages : 667 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models

Author : Edward P. Herbst
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691161089
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models by : Edward P. Herbst

Download or read book Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models written by Edward P. Herbst and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-29 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.

Bayesian Econometrics

Author : Mauro Bernardi
Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3039437852
Total Pages : 146 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Econometrics by : Mauro Bernardi

Download or read book Bayesian Econometrics written by Mauro Bernardi and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-12-28 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.

RETRACTED BOOK: 151 Trading Strategies

Author : Zura Kakushadze
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030027929
Total Pages : 480 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis RETRACTED BOOK: 151 Trading Strategies by : Zura Kakushadze

Download or read book RETRACTED BOOK: 151 Trading Strategies written by Zura Kakushadze and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-13 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides detailed descriptions, including more than 550 mathematical formulas, for more than 150 trading strategies across a host of asset classes and trading styles. These include stocks, options, fixed income, futures, ETFs, indexes, commodities, foreign exchange, convertibles, structured assets, volatility, real estate, distressed assets, cash, cryptocurrencies, weather, energy, inflation, global macro, infrastructure, and tax arbitrage. Some strategies are based on machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks, Bayes, and k-nearest neighbors. The book also includes source code for illustrating out-of-sample backtesting, around 2,000 bibliographic references, and more than 900 glossary, acronym and math definitions. The presentation is intended to be descriptive and pedagogical and of particular interest to finance practitioners, traders, researchers, academics, and business school and finance program students.

Global House Price Fluctuations

Author : Mr.Hideaki Hirata
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475591608
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Global House Price Fluctuations by : Mr.Hideaki Hirata

Download or read book Global House Price Fluctuations written by Mr.Hideaki Hirata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-06 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.

Volatility

Author : Torben Gustav Andersen
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9781788110617
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (16 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility by : Torben Gustav Andersen

Download or read book Volatility written by Torben Gustav Andersen and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volatility ranks among the most active and successful areas of research in econometrics and empirical asset pricing finance over the past three decades. This two-volume collection of papers comprises some of the most influential published works from this burgeoning literature, both classic and contemporary. Topics covered include GARCH, stochastic and multivariate volatility models as well as forecasting, evaluation and high-frequency data. Together with an original introduction by the editors, this definitive compilation presents the most important milestones and contributions that helped pave the way to today's understanding of volatility.

Stochastic Processes in Physics and Engineering

Author : Sergio Albeverio
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400928939
Total Pages : 418 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Processes in Physics and Engineering by : Sergio Albeverio

Download or read book Stochastic Processes in Physics and Engineering written by Sergio Albeverio and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Approach your problems from the right end It isn't that they can't see the solution. It is and begin with the answers. Then one day, that they can't see the problem. perhaps you will find the final question. O. K. Chesterton. The Scandal of Father 'The Hermit Qad in Crane Feathers' in R. Brown 'The point of a Pin'. van Gu!ik's The Chinese Maze Murders. Growing specialization and diversification have brought a host of monographs and textbooks on increasingly specialized topics. However, the "tree" of knowledge of mathematics and related fields does not grow only by putting forth new branches. It also happens, quite often in fact, that branches which were thought to be completely disparate are suddenly seen to be related. Further, the kind and level of sophistication of mathematics applied in various sciences has changed drastically in recent years: measure theory is used (non-trivially) in regional and theoretical economics; algebraic geometry interacts with physics; the Minkowsky lemma, coding theory and the structure of water meet one another in packing and covering theory; quantum fields, crystal defects and mathematical programming profit from homotopy theory; Lie algebras are relevant to filtering; and prediction and electrical engineering can use Stein spaces. And in addition to this there are such new emerging subdisciplines as "experimental mathematics", "CFD", "completely integrable systems", "chaos, synergetics and large-scale order", which are almost impossible to fit into the existing classification schemes. They draw upon widely different sections of mathematics.

Interacting Stochastic Systems

Author : Jean-Dominique Deuschel
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783540230335
Total Pages : 470 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Interacting Stochastic Systems by : Jean-Dominique Deuschel

Download or read book Interacting Stochastic Systems written by Jean-Dominique Deuschel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-01-12 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Research Network on "Interacting stochastic systems of high complexity" set up by the German Research Foundation aimed at exploring and developing connections between research in infinite-dimensional stochastic analysis, statistical physics, spatial population models from mathematical biology, complex models of financial markets or of stochastic models interacting with other sciences. This book presents a structured collection of papers on the core topics, written at the close of the 6-year programme by the research groups who took part in it. The structure chosen highlights the interweaving of certain themes and certain interconnections discovered through the joint work. This yields a reference work on results and methods that will be useful to all who work between applied probability and the physical, economic, and life sciences.

Recent Developments in Alternative Finance

Author : Fredj Jawadi
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1781903999
Total Pages : 371 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (819 download)

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Book Synopsis Recent Developments in Alternative Finance by : Fredj Jawadi

Download or read book Recent Developments in Alternative Finance written by Fredj Jawadi and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-11-28 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the global financial crisis began in 2008-2009, there has been a strong decline in financial markets and investment. Alternative finance presents challenges intended to stimulate investment and promote economic growth and development. This volume aims to provide the reader an understanding of alternative finance in its various forms.

Pricing Derivative Securities

Author : T. W. Epps
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9812700331
Total Pages : 644 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (127 download)

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Book Synopsis Pricing Derivative Securities by : T. W. Epps

Download or read book Pricing Derivative Securities written by T. W. Epps and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2007 with total page 644 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents techniques for valuing derivative securities at a level suitable for practitioners, students in doctoral programs in economics and finance, and those in masters-level programs in financial mathematics and computational finance. It provides the necessary mathematical tools from analysis, probability theory, the theory of stochastic processes, and stochastic calculus, making extensive use of examples. It also covers pricing theory, with emphasis on martingale methods. The chapters are organized around the assumptions made about the dynamics of underlying price processes. Readers begin with simple, discrete-time models that require little mathematical sophistication, proceed to the basic Black-Scholes theory, and then advance to continuous-time models with multiple risk sources. The second edition takes account of the major developments in the field since 2000. New topics include the use of simulation to price American-style derivatives, a new one-step approach to pricing options by inverting characteristic functions, and models that allow jumps in volatility and Markov-driven changes in regime. The new chapter on interest-rate derivatives includes extensive coverage of the LIBOR market model and an introduction to the modeling of credit risk. As a supplement to the text, the book contains an accompanying CD-ROM with user-friendly FORTRAN, C++, and VBA program components.

Geologic Modeling and Simulation

Author : Daniel F. Merriam
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461513596
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (615 download)

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Book Synopsis Geologic Modeling and Simulation by : Daniel F. Merriam

Download or read book Geologic Modeling and Simulation written by Daniel F. Merriam and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling and simulation were introduced to the earth sciences about four decades ago. Modeling has proven its worth and now it is an accepted procedure for analyzing and solving geological problems. The papers in this collection are focused on modeling sediment deposition and sedimentary sequences and have a decidedly practical flavor. Some of the leading simulation packages, such as CORRELATOR, SEDFLUX, SEDpak, SEDSIM, STRATA, and STRATSIM are applied to problems in hydrocarbon exploration, oil production, groundwater development, coal-bed appraisal, geothermics, and environmental diagnosis. All of these subjects fall under the broad heading of sedimentary basin analysis. The fifteen papers in this volume are written by internationally recognized experts from academia and industry. The contributions represent the status of geologic modeling and simulation at the start of the 21st century, and will give the reader an insight into current research problems and their possible solutions.

Fractals in Graz 2001

Author : Peter J. Grabner
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783764370060
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Fractals in Graz 2001 by : Peter J. Grabner

Download or read book Fractals in Graz 2001 written by Peter J. Grabner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2003 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains the proceedings of the conference "Fractals in Graz 2001 - Analysis, Dynamics, Geometry, Stochastics" that was held in the second week of June 2001 at Graz University of Technology, in the capital of Styria, southeastern province of Austria. The scientific committee of the meeting consisted of M. Barlow (Vancouver), R. Strichartz (Ithaca), P. Grabner and W. Woess (both Graz), the latter two being the local organizers and editors of this volume. We made an effort to unite in the conference as well as in the present pro ceedings a multitude of different directions of active current work, and to bring together researchers from various countries as well as research fields that all are linked in some way with the modern theory of fractal structures. Although (or because) in Graz there is only a very small group working on fractal structures, consisting of "non-insiders", we hope to have been successful with this program of wide horizons. All papers were written upon explicit invitation by the editors, and we are happy to be able to present this representative panorama of recent work on poten tial theory, random walks, spectral theory, fractal groups, dynamic systems, fractal geometry, and more. The papers presented here underwent a refereeing process.

Econophysics & Economics of Games, Social Choices and Quantitative Techniques

Author : Banasri Basu
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 8847015014
Total Pages : 394 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Econophysics & Economics of Games, Social Choices and Quantitative Techniques by : Banasri Basu

Download or read book Econophysics & Economics of Games, Social Choices and Quantitative Techniques written by Banasri Basu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The combined efforts of the Physicists and the Economists in recent years in analyzing and modelling various dynamic phenomena in monetary and social systems have led to encouraging developments, generally classified under the title of Econophysics. These developments share a common ambition with the already established field of Quantitative Economics. This volume intends to offer the reader a glimpse of these two parallel initiatives by collecting review papers written by well-known experts in the respective research frontiers in one cover. This massive book presents a unique combination of research papers contributed almost equally by Physicists and Economists. Additional contributions from Computer Scientists and Mathematicians are also included in this volume. The book consists of two parts: the first part concentrates on Econophysics problems and the second part stresses on various quantitative issues in Economics. Both parts specialize on frontier problems in Games and Social Choices.

Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics

Author : Katharine G. Abraham
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022680125X
Total Pages : 502 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (268 download)

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Book Synopsis Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics by : Katharine G. Abraham

Download or read book Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics written by Katharine G. Abraham and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-03-11 with total page 502 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction.Big data for twenty-first-century economic statistics: the future is now /Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian C. Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro --Toward comprehensive use of big data in economic statistics.Reengineering key national economic indicators /Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, David Johnson, and Matthew D. Shapiro ;Big data in the US consumer price index: experiences and plans /Crystal G. Konny, Brendan K. Williams, and David M. Friedman ;Improving retail trade data products using alternative data sources /Rebecca J. Hutchinson ;From transaction data to economic statistics: constructing real-time, high-frequency, geographic measures of consumer spending /Aditya Aladangady, Shifrah Aron-Dine, Wendy Dunn, Laura Feiveson, Paul Lengermann, and Claudia Sahm ;Improving the accuracy of economic measurement with multiple data sources: the case of payroll employment data /Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz --Uses of big data for classification.Transforming naturally occurring text data into economic statistics: the case of online job vacancy postings /Arthur Turrell, Bradley Speigner, Jyldyz Djumalieva, David Copple, and James Thurgood ;Automating response evaluation for franchising questions on the 2017 economic census /Joseph Staudt, Yifang Wei, Lisa Singh, Shawn Klimek, J. Bradford Jensen, and Andrew Baer ;Using public data to generate industrial classification codes /John Cuffe, Sudip Bhattacharjee, Ugochukwu Etudo, Justin C. Smith, Nevada Basdeo, Nathaniel Burbank, and Shawn R. Roberts --Uses of big data for sectoral measurement.Nowcasting the local economy: using Yelp data to measure economic activity /Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim, and Michael Luca ;Unit values for import and export price indexes: a proof of concept /Don A. Fast and Susan E. Fleck ;Quantifying productivity growth in the delivery of important episodes of care within the Medicare program using insurance claims and administrative data /John A. Romley, Abe Dunn, Dana Goldman, and Neeraj Sood ;Valuing housing services in the era of big data: a user cost approach leveraging Zillow microdata /Marina Gindelsky, Jeremy G. Moulton, and Scott A. Wentland --Methodological challenges and advances.Off to the races: a comparison of machine learning and alternative data for predicting economic indicators /Jeffrey C. Chen, Abe Dunn, Kyle Hood, Alexander Driessen, and Andrea Batch ;A machine learning analysis of seasonal and cyclical sales in weekly scanner data /Rishab Guha and Serena Ng ;Estimating the benefits of new products /W. Erwin Diewert and Robert C. Feenstra.

A Mathematician Plays The Stock Market

Author : John Allen Paulos
Publisher : Basic Books
ISBN 13 : 0465009700
Total Pages : 227 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (65 download)

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Book Synopsis A Mathematician Plays The Stock Market by : John Allen Paulos

Download or read book A Mathematician Plays The Stock Market written by John Allen Paulos and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2007-10-11 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can a renowned mathematician successfully outwit the stock market? Not when his biggest investment is WorldCom. In A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market , best-selling author John Allen Paulos employs his trademark stories, vignettes, paradoxes, and puzzles to address every thinking reader's curiosity about the market -- Is it efficient? Is it random? Is there anything to technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and other supposedly time-tested methods of picking stocks? How can one quantify risk? What are the most common scams? Are there any approaches to investing that truly outperform the major indexes? But Paulos's tour through the irrational exuberance of market mathematics doesn't end there. An unrequited (and financially disastrous) love affair with WorldCom leads Paulos to question some cherished ideas of personal finance. He explains why "data mining" is a self-fulfilling belief, why "momentum investing" is nothing more than herd behavior with a lot of mathematical jargon added, why the ever-popular Elliot Wave Theory cannot be correct, and why you should take Warren Buffet's "fundamental analysis" with a grain of salt. Like Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street , this clever and illuminating book is for anyone, investor or not, who follows the markets -- or knows someone who does.