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Author : Timothy P. Bianco
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 135 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (16 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Credit Markets and the Macroeconomy written by Timothy P. Bianco and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Stefano William Giglio
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (775 download)
Download or read book Essays on Credit Markets and the Macroeconomy written by Stefano William Giglio and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Qiao Zhang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (918 download)
Download or read book Three Essays in Monetary Economics written by Qiao Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this dissertation, my research aims at dwelling on the questions, at understanding and explaining -- as a follow of current strand of literature on financial frictions -- the mechanisms that allowed the imperfect and perfect credit intermediation to affect the dynamics of economy and the transmission of monetary policy, and providing a new theoretical formulation for evaluating the unconventional monetary policy. To do this, I first considered the impact of financial intermediation on the analysis of central bank transparency issue (Chapter 2). ln Chapter 3, I focused on the role played by the imperfect financial intermediation/financial frictions in the transmission of shocks : through which mechanisms, do the presence of balance-sheet constraint financial intermediaries affect the effect of shocks on the macroeconomy? Finally, in Chapter 4, 1 construct an theoreticalmodel to analyze an important issue which have net been carried out in existing literature: the transmission mechanism of the central bank's large-scale purchase of mortgage-backed securities. ln this chapter, I first simulated a financial crisis to see if the model is able to replicate some of the most important stylized facts of the Great Recession. Then, basing on the simulated crisis, I examine the efficacy and transmission mechanism of large scale purchases of MBS through comparing these purchases to the purchases of corporate bonds. This experiment is conducted in two credit market configurations, i.e., a partially and a totally segmented credit market. The latter case of market condition is considered by many economists as main obstacle that impedes the nominal functioning of the financial markets. ln this work, we have obtained rich and important findings for guiding the use of unconventional monetary policy. The following parts briefly present the findinqs of the thesis.
Author : Hiroyuki Ito
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 464 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (73 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on International Finance and Macroeconomics written by Hiroyuki Ito and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jagdish Tripathy
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (112 download)
Download or read book Essays on macroeconomic effects of credit market fluctuations written by Jagdish Tripathy and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation includes three chapters on the macroeconomic effects of the financial system, particularly the credit market. In the first chapter, I show a causal link between household credit supply and economic activity using an exogenous shock to household credit supply by Spanish banks in Mexico resulting from macroprudential regulations in Spain. I use the variation in exposure to this shock across Mexican municipalities as a natural experiment and measure the elasticity of lending to the non-tradable sector to changes in household credit ranging from 1.6-3.5. In the second chapter, I show that the Spanish regulations did not affect lending to Mexican firms by Spanish banks. I use firm-level data to show that firms with multiple bank relationships did not experience a change in loan-terms (in levels and interest rates) of marginal credit offered by Spanish banks vis-a-vis the terms offered by non-Spanish banks. I write a theoretical model that accounts for the asymmetric effect of the Spanish regulations on lending to firms and households based on the relationship rents earned by banks depending upon the proprietary information held by them on a given borrower. In the third chapter, I study the effect of asset bubbles in the presence of financial frictions and heterogeneous projects. I consider an economy with two sectors - a productive, financially constrained sector and an unproductive sector with lower levels of financial constraints. Financial constraints create conditions for the existence of asset bubbles. Asset bubbles, in turn, raise interest rates and lower investment productivity by directing financial resources away from the financially constrained, productive sector to the less constrained, unproductive sector. Such bubbles guide the economy to steady states with low levels of consumption that I call bubbly growth traps.
Author : Unja Chae
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (622 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Macroeconomic and International Finance Issues written by Unja Chae and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jeffrey Malcolm Lacker
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Three Essays in Macroeconomics written by Jeffrey Malcolm Lacker and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : J. W. Mason
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 197 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Three Essays in Macroeconomic History written by J. W. Mason and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following Minsky, an economy can be understood as a set of units linked to each other by flows of money payments and by the commitments to future payments reflected on balance sheets. This dissertation offers three accounts of the historical evolution of the US economy, conceived of a network of balance sheets, over the course of 20th and early 21st century. The first essay looks at changes in the pattern of payment flows between nonfinancial corporations and financial markets associated with the ``shareholder revolution" of the 1980s. It argues that the shift in payouts to shareholders from a quasi-fixed stream of dividends to a claim on every dollar actually or potentially available to the firm, has had important effects on the behavior of aggregate investment; in particular, it has weakened the link between corporate investment, on the one hand, and earnings and credit conditions, on the other. The second essay looks at household debt. It argues that that the evolution of household debt-income ratios must be understood as a monetary phenomenon and not merely the reflection of developments in ``real" expenditure and income. Decomposing the changes in household debt since 1929 using an appropriate accounting framework shows that changes in household behavior account for only a small part of the trajectory of household leverage over the past 80 years. The third essay applies this same broad perspective to the historical evolution of interest rate spreads. It argues that from a Keynesian perspective that regards interest as fundamentally the price of liquidity, there is no conceptual basis for picking out the difference in yield between money and a short-term government bond as``the" interest rate; there are many other pairs of asset yields the difference between which is determined on the same principles, and may have equal macroeconomic significance. This perspective helps make sense of the increasing gap between the policy rate and the interest rates facing most private borrowers.
Author : Zhiyi Wei
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (133 download)
Download or read book Essays on Incomplete Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy written by Zhiyi Wei and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Cheong-Seok Chang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 234 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Policies Towards Risk written by Cheong-Seok Chang and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Martin Shubik
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262693110
Total Pages : 472 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (931 download)
Download or read book The Theory of Money and Financial Institutions written by Martin Shubik and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This first volume in a three-volume exposition of Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics" explores a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. This is the first volume in a three-volume exposition of Martin Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics"--a term he coined in 1959 to describe the theoretical underpinnings needed for the construction of an economic dynamics. The goal is to develop a process-oriented theory of money and financial institutions that reconciles micro- and macroeconomics, using as a prime tool the theory of games in strategic and extensive form. The approach involves a search for minimal financial institutions that appear as a logical, technological, and institutional necessity, as part of the "rules of the game." Money and financial institutions are assumed to be the basic elements of the network that transmits the sociopolitical imperatives to the economy. Volume 1 deals with a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. Volume 2 explores the new economic features that arise when we consider multi-period finite and infinite horizon economies. Volume 3 will consider the specific role of financial institutions and government, and formulate the economic financial control problem linking micro- and macroeconomics.
Author : Yang Li
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (133 download)
Download or read book Three Essays in Macroeconomics and Finance written by Yang Li and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chapter 1 develops a continuous-time, heterogeneous agents version of the Barro-Rietz rare disasters model. Following Gabaix (2012), the disaster probability is assumed to be time-varying. The economy consists of two types of agents: (1) a "rational" agent, who updates his beliefs using Bayes Rule, and (2) a "robust" agent, who updates his beliefs using a pessimistically distorted prior. Following Hansen and Sargent (2008), pessimism is disciplined using detection error probabilities. Disaster risk is assumed to be nontradeable. The model is calibrated to US data, and focuses on three disaster episodes: (1) The Great Depression of 1929-33, (2) The Financial Crisis of 2008-09, and (3) The Covid Pandemic of 2020. The key contribution of the paper is to show that the model can replicate the observed spike in trading volume that occurs during disasters. Trading produces endogenous low frequency dynamics in the distribution of wealth. The relative wealth of robust agents gradually declines during normal times, but rises sharply during disasters. These results sound a note of caution when interpreting short-run movements in the distribution of wealth. Chapter 2 examines the market selection hypothesis in a continuous time asset pricing model with jumps. It is shown that the hypothesis is valid when agents have log preferences. The result is robust as it does not depend on whether markets are incomplete. Jumps affect long-run wealth dynamics through a redistribution channel: Disasters lead to large wealth redistribution as agents with heterogeneous beliefs about disasters have different exposures to risky assets. Using tools from ergodic theory, I prove a novel result that generalizes the rationality concept in the existing literature: an agent endowed with the optimal filter will outperform other agents in complete financial markets asymptotically. Chapter 3, a joint paper with Xiaowen Lei, develops a continuous-time overlapping generations model with rare disasters and agents who learn from their own experiences. Using microdata about household finance in China, we establish that economic disasters such as the Great Leap Forward make investors distrustful of the market. Generations that experience disasters invest a lower fraction of their wealth in risky assets, even if similar disasters are not likely to occur again during their lifetimes. "Fearing to attempt" therefore inhibits wealth accumulation by these "depression babies" relative to other generations.
Author : Cesar Saturnino Salinas Depaz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (144 download)
Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics, Financial Markets, and Epidemics written by Cesar Saturnino Salinas Depaz and published by . This book was released on 2024 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three chapters about how access to financial markets and composition of the labor market determine aggregate macroeconomic outcomes. The first chapter examines the macroeconomic consequences of credit uncertainty using a structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (SVAR-SV). Credit supply conditions in the U.S. is captured by the banks' reports on how credit standards for approving loans have change over time (Bank Lending Standards). The empirical analysis shows that the volatility of macroeconomic and financial variables rises in response to an increase in the credit uncertainty shock. The economic activity falls and credit growth and related interest rates decrease persistently. Moreover, credit volatility shocks explain around 10% of the FEV of endogenous variables. A dissagregated analysis shows that the effect of these shocks are mainly explained by their effects on the corporate business sector. The second chapter studies the role of time-varying credit limits through the lens of a life cycle incomplete markets model calibrated for the U.S. Changes in credit card limits are explained by observable household characteristics and the estimated unobservable variation is quite large. The quantitative exercise shows that even though young households are more indebted in an economy with stochastic borrowing limits, aggregate consumption is not greatly affected by transitory or persistent shocks of this type. However, in the presence of these shocks, households lose the ability to self-insure against other uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks, e.g., labor income shocks. A disaggregated analysis shows that the loss of self-insurance capacity is mainly explained by the effects that stochastic borrowing limits have on the wealth distribution, the precautionary savings channel households have to face unexpected risks. The third chapter studies the role of informal markets to explain economic and demographic variables during a pandemic. The quantitative exercise shows that lockdown policies are less effective in economies with large informal markets, infection and death rates will not decrease as much as formal economies. Moreover, the size of the recession would be exacerbated because informal activities are not counted in the calculation of the GDP. To generate similar results to an economy with only formal markets, the economy with informal markets must implement more severe containment policies.
Author : Hongkil Kim
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 98 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (112 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Public Money Creation, Endogenous Bank Credit Creation, and Remaining Empirical Issues written by Hongkil Kim and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation examines the interconnectedness between money/credit creation and its empirical relevance to macroeconomic variables. It takes the position that the amount of money/credit created for GDP-related transactions inevitably influences the business cycle and inflation while the money/credit extension for non-GDP based transactions (mainly for purchasing financial assets) helps explain movements of interest rates, exchange rates, and an asset bubble/crash. With this approach, the main objectives of this dissertation is to demonstrate that 1) excess bank credit creation/depletion for households' spending is crucial in explaining US inflation, 2) the European Central Bank could successfully contain pressures in struggling sovereign bond markets, relying on its unique power to create its currency (the Euro) and 3) interest rate exogeneity is, if not theoretically impossible, difficult to attain due to market psychology and endogenous credit creation. Having recognized effects of money/credit creation on a macroeconomic environment, the dissertation naturally proceeds to suggest policy proposals that guide credit creation and allocation of credit for productive purposes and assign a proper role for public money creation to counter ebb and flow of private credit creation.
Download or read book Essays on Macroeconomic Risk in Financial Markets written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis contains three essays. In the first essay, I provide new evidence on the failure of the Q theory of investment. The Q theory implies the state-by-state equivalence of stock returns and investment returns. However in the data, I find that investment and stock returns are negatively correlated. I also show that a production economy with time-to-build can explain these empirical facts. When I compute Q theory based investment returns on simulated data of the time-to-build model, they are uncorrelated with simulated stock returns, as in the data. Moreover, the model replicates the empirical negative correlation between stock returns and investment growth which some researchers have interpreted as evidence for irrational markets. In the second essay, I analyze the equilibrium effects of investment commitment on asset prices when the representative consumer has Epstein-Zin utility. Investment commitment captures the idea that long-term investment projects require not only current expenditures but also commitment to future expenditures. The general equilibrium effects of investment commitment and Epstein-Zin preferences generate endogenously time-varying first and second moments of consumption growth and stock returns. As a result, the first and second moments of excess returns are endogenously counter-cyclical, excess returns are predictable, and the equity premium increases by an order of magnitude. This paper also offers novel empirical findings regarding the predictability of returns. In the real and simulated data, the lagged investment rate helps to forecast the mean and volatility of returns. In the third essay, we embed a structural model of credit risk inside a consumption based model, which allows us to price equity and corporate debt in a single framework. Our key economic assumptions are that the first and second moments of earnings and consumption growth depend on the state of the economy which switches randomly, creating intertemporal risk, which.
Author : Huifeng Chang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 197 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (132 download)
Download or read book Essays on Macroeconomics and Finance written by Huifeng Chang and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three chapters on macroeconomics and finance. In Chapter 1, I study how disruptions in secondary bond market liquidity affect the macroeconomy. I introduce search-based secondary markets for long-term corporate bonds into a dynamic general equilibrium model. In the model, with borrowing constraints and incomplete insurance, firms restrict hiring ex-ante when default risk increases. A worsening of bond market liquidity, by affecting bond prices and thus the borrowing limits for firms, has aggregate negative impact on firms' labor choices. A positive default-liquidity spiral further amplifies these effects. In the quantitative analysis of my model, I show that a liquidity shock calibrated to match the observed increase in the bid-ask spread could explain about 20% of the employment losses in the Great Recession. I also provide a structural estimate of the impacts of the Fed's corporate bond purchasing program on the real economy during the COVID-19 crisis. By improving bond market liquidity, the Fed's interventions avoided a 2 percentage point drop in employment. In Chapter 2 (joint with Adrien d'Avenas and Andrea Eisfeldt), we explain why credit spreads explain firm-level investment better than equity volatility does. While credit spreads always predict lower investment, the sensitivity of investment to equity volatility changes sign in the cross section of firms depending on their distance to default. Higher equity volatility predicts greater investment for firms far from their default threshold, consistent with a larger option value of investment at higher levels of volatility. On the other hand, higher equity volatility predicts lower investment for firms with high credit spreads, consistent with debt overhang. Opposite effects at the firm level wash out and confound aggregate inference. We provide clean intuition using a simple model. In Chapter 3 (joint with Lucyna Gornicka, Federico Grinberg, and Marcello Miccoli), we study how the introduction of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) might disintermediate the banking sector. Using a simple portfolio choice model we find that CBDC reduces bank credit only in special cases and when it does, the effect is quantitatively small. In the model, households allocate their wealth between an illiquid asset and three liquid assets: cash, bank deposits and CBDC. An imperfectly competitive banking sector provides deposits and lending. When all liquid assets are costless to access, the introduction of CBDC does not lead to bank disintermediation, as banks increase the return on deposits to fight off the competition from CBDC. However, if the access to deposits and CBDC is costly, the introduction of the latter may lead to bank disintermediation under specific conditions. The conditions are that CBDC is much cheaper to access than bank deposits and that the wealth distribution is very unequal. Under these conditions, poorer households will stop holding deposits in favor of CBDC, but banks will not aggressively fight the outflow of customers due to their relatively small wealth. Still, the impact on lending turns out quantitatively small if banks have access to other forms of funding.
Author : Liang Ma
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (141 download)
Download or read book Three Essays in Monetary and Financial Economics written by Liang Ma and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays in the field of monetary and financial economics. Specifically, we use high-frequency financial data to study monetary policies with a focus on the information effect, namely, that some of the interest rate movements around central bank announcements are not policy-driven, but are results of the market becoming aware of the central bank's view about future economic prospects. Understanding the role played by the information effect will help us apprehend monetary policy implications in both normal times and extraordinary situations. Chapter 1 evaluates the impact of unconventional monetary policy in the newly developed instrumental variable structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework. In the current low interest rate environment, central banks must resort to using unconventional monetary policies, such as forward guidance and quantitative easing, to flight recessions. To empirically evaluate the effectiveness of these unconventional policies, we need to rely on the clean policy shock. A prominent concern is that the often used high-frequency interest rate surprises not only reflect unexpected policy changes, but also contain the information effect. We contribute to the literature by using a heteroskedasticity identification approach, taking advantage of changes in the relative dominance of economic shocks around different macroeconomic announcements. Analysis based on clean policy shocks suggests that the unconventional policies successfully aided the recovery in the U.S. More importantly, we show that the information effect, while it may introduce bias, is rather modest when it comes to estimating the real impact of unconventional monetary policies. Chapter 2 studies the stock return pattern after the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement. This research is motivated by recent literature that documents stock returns drifts, both before and after FOMC announcements, according to policy rate surprises. Indeed, research has shown that the information contained in the central bank announcement is multifaceted: its current monetary policy stances (monetary policy news) and news about future economic prospects (non-monetary policy news). Our contribution is to combine these two strands of literature. To the best of our knowledge, no study has looked at stock market reactions to the non-monetary news stemming from policy announcements. We identify both good and bad news events using a combination of sign restriction with high-frequency financial prices. The novel finding is that following bad FOMC announcements, that is the market interpreted the Fed announcements as revealing negative information about the economy, we observe significant positive stock returns in a 20-day period. We call this the ``post-FOMC drift.'' Further analysis suggests that the drift is likely caused by relatively heightened risks associated with bad announcements, although the drift is consistent with market overreactions as well. Moreover, the post FOMC drift is a market-wide phenomenon and can be exploited in an easy-to-implement trading strategy with a historical record of earning 40\% of the annual equity premium. In Chapter 3, we explore the channels through which the FOMC announcements affect the financial market. While much of the existing literature measures the surprise components with only changes in policy rates (surrounding the announcement), we contribute to the existing literature by taking a broader view through examining unexpected changes in longer-term yields, corporate credit spreads, and inflation expectations (a proxy for growth prospects), using high-frequency financial data. Through a regression analysis, our findings show that these additional surprises provide orthogonal information and sharply increase the goodness of fit in explaining stock returns around FOMC announcements, with the inclusion of inflation expectations having the biggest contribution. The important role of inflation expectation suggests that the current literature, which uses stock prices together with nominal rates to disentangle the information contents of central bank announcements, may be too limited in the scope of information it uses.
