Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Download Three Essays On Analyst Earnings Forecast full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Three Essays On Analyst Earnings Forecast ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Author : Wenjuan Xie
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 138 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (891 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast written by Wenjuan Xie and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Niklas Blümke
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on the Earnings Forecast Accuracy of Sell-side Analysts written by Niklas Blümke and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jorida Papakroni
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (862 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Analysts' Earnings Forecast Dispersion and Stock Returns written by Jorida Papakroni and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Alexander Stolz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 197 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (1 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on the Accuracy and Timing of Sell-side Analysts' Annual Earnings Forecast written by Alexander Stolz and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Dong Hyun Son
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 130 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (889 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Financial Analysts written by Dong Hyun Son and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Alexander Stolz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (1 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on the Accuracy and Timing of Sell-side Analysts' Annual Earnings Forecasts written by Alexander Stolz and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Quoc Tuan Quoc Ho
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (16 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Financial Analysts' Stock Price Forecasts written by Quoc Tuan Quoc Ho and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis, I study three aspects of sell-side analysts' stock price forecasts, henceforth target prices: analyst teams' target price forecast characteristics, analysts' use of information to revise target prices, and determinants of target price disagreement between analysts. The first essay studies the target price forecast performance of team analysts in the UK and finds that teams issue timelier but not less accurate target prices. Unlike evidence from previous studies, my findings suggest that analyst teamwork may improve forecast timeliness without sacrificing forecast accuracy. However, market reactions to team target price revisions are not significantly different from those to individual analyst target price revisions, suggesting that although target prices issued by analyst teams are timelier and not less accurate than those of individual analysts, investors do not consider analyst team target prices more informative. I conjecture that analysts may work in teams to meet the demand to cover more companies while maintaining the quality of research by individual team members rather than to issue more informative reports. In the second essay, I study how analysts revise their target prices in response to new information implicit in recent market returns, stock excess returns and other analysts' target price revisions. The results suggest that analysts' target price revisions are significantly influenced by market returns, stock excess return and other analysts' target price revisions. I also find that the correlation between target price revisions and stock excess returns is significantly higher when the news implicit in these returns is bad rather than good. I conjecture that analysts discover more bad news from the information in stock excess returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it becomes inevitable, while they disclose good news early. Using a new measure of bad to good news concentration, I show that the asymmetric responsiveness of target price revisions to positive and negative stock excess returns is significant for firms with the highest concentration of bad news but is insignificant for firms with the lowest concentration of bad news. I argue that firms with the highest concentration of bad news are more likely to withhold and accumulate bad news. The findings, therefore, support my hypothesis that analysts discover more bad news than good news from stock returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it is inevitable. The third essay examines the determinants of analyst target price disagreement. I find that while disagreement in short-term earnings and in long-term earnings growth forecasts are significant determinants, recent 12-month idiosyncratic return volatility has the strongest explanatory power for target price disagreement. The findings suggest that target price disagreement is driven not only by analyst disagreement about short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth, but also by differences in analysts' opinions about the impact of recent firm-specific events on value drivers beyond short-term future earnings and long-term growth, which are eventually reflected in past idiosyncratic return volatility.
Author : Marius del Giudice Rodriguez
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 132 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (775 download)
Download or read book Essays on Financial Analysts' Forecasts written by Marius del Giudice Rodriguez and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation contains three self-contained chapters dealing with specific aspects of financial analysts' earnings forecasts. After recent accounting scandals, much attention has turned to the incentives present in the career of professional financial analysts. The literature points to several reasons why financial analysts behave overoptimistically when providing their predictions. In particular, analysts may wish to maintain good relations with firm management, to please the underwriters and brokerage houses at which they are employed, and to broaden career choice. While the literature has focused more on analysts' strategic behavior in these situations, less attention has been paid to the implications these factors have on financial analysts' loss functions. The loss function dictates the criteria that analysts use in order to build their forecasts. Using a simple compensation scheme in which the sign of prediction errors affect their incomes differently, in the first chapter we examine the implications this has on their loss function. We show that depending on the contract offered, analysts have a strict preference for under-prediction or over-prediction and the size of this asymmetric behavior depends on the parameter that governs the financial analyst's preferences over wealth. This is turn affects the bias in their forecasts. Recent developments in the forecasting literature allow for the estimation of asymmetry parameters after observing data on forecasts. Moreover, they allow for a more general test of rationality once asymmetries are present. We make use of forecast data from financial analysts, provided by I/B/E/S, and present evidence of asymmetries and weak evidence against rationality. In the second chapter we study the evolution over time in the revisions to financial analysts' earnings estimates for the 30 Dow Jones firms over a 20 year period. If analysts' forecasts used information efficiently, earnings revisions should not be predictable. However, we find strong evidence that earnings revisions can in fact be predicted by means of the sign of the last revision or by using publicly available information such as short interest rates and past revisions. We propose a three-state model that accounts for the very different magnitude and persistence of positive, negative and `no change' revisions and find that this model forecasts earnings revisions significantly better than an autoregressive model. We also find that our forecasts of earnings revisions predict the actual earnings figure beyond the information contained in analysts' earnings estimates. Finally, the empirical literature on financial analysts' forecast revisions of corporate earnings has focused on past stock returns as the key determinant. The effects of macroeconomic information on forecast revisions is widely discussed, yet rarely tested in the literature. In the third chapter, we use dynamic factor analysis for large data sets to summarize a large cross-section of macroeconomic variables. The estimated factors are used as predictors of the average analyst's forecast revisions for different sectors of the economy. Our analysis suggests that factors extracted from macroeconomic variables do, indeed, improve on the current model with only past stock returns. In trying to explain what drives financial analysts' forecast revisions, the factors representing the macroeconomic environment must be considered to avoid a potential omitted variable problem. Moreover, the explanatory power and direction of such factors strongly depend on the industry in question.
Download or read book Three Essays in Capital Markets Research written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Zhelei Li
Publisher : Open Dissertation Press
ISBN 13 : 9781360996530
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (965 download)
Download or read book 3 ESSAYS ON EQUITY ANALYSTS AG written by Zhelei Li and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Three Essays on Equity Analysts' Agent Role and Investor Inattention" by Zhelei, Li, 李哲磊, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: This thesis includes two essays on equity analysts' agent role and one essay on investors' inattention to good news. From a broader economic perspective, equity analysts are essentially agents acting on behalf of multiple principals including their employers, investors and issuers (Fisch & Sale, 2003). Classic agency theory predicts that analysts selectively provide coverage and report their expectations. In the first essay, I examine empirically if incremental investment value can be uncovered from analysts' choices between silence and speech, measured as the level of analyst reporting not explained by size or turnover. I find that "silence" negatively, and "speech" positively predicts future stock returns. More importantly, as "speech is silver, silence is golden," the observed price shift is mainly driven by silence, providing evidence that analysts' inaction can impede price discovery process. This is consistent with the claims that analysts' expectations are based on valid information, that analyst self-selection is pervasive due to the principal-agent conflicts, and that the loss of information with analyst silence has resulted in some mis-valuation which can be viewed as a form of classic agency cost. The second essay tests if analysts are systematically less forthcoming in reporting bad earnings news when the principal-agent conflicts are exacerbated. I find that analysts' downward consensus earnings forecast revisions are less informative than their upward revisions; that less is more when analysts report bad news - extreme downward revisions contain little incremental information beyond momentum compared with moderate downward revisions; and that the differential richness of information in good and bad news revisions is more pronounced among bigger, more heavily covered stocks and stocks with higher institutional holdings, namely, stocks that are typically more prone to the analyst agency problem. Thus the loss of information in bad news revisions and extreme bad news revisions' lagging behind price action can be viewed as another form of agency cost. In the third essay, I investigate how negativity bias in information processing affects the positive-negative-asymmetry in the stock price continuation phenomenon. Psychology literature document that negative stimuli elicit more attention and negative information is generally processed more thoroughly and is weighed more heavily in impression formation, memory, learning and decision making than positive information (Baumeister, Bratslavsky, Finkenauer, & Vohs, 2001; Rozin & Royzman, 2001). Insofar as people are cognitive misers, all else being equal, investors tend to pay less attention to good news than to bad news. Using earnings announcement as the information shock, I document evidences that investors incorporate bad earnings news to fuller extent than they do with good earnings news. Furthermore, given that psychological biases are typically increased when there is more uncertainty (Hirshleifer, 2001) and ambiguity or uncertainty is often associated with higher risk and the possibility of hostile manipulation, I also find more pronounced asymmetry in post announcement drift when information uncertainty is greater. DOI: 10.5353/th_b5066225 Subjects: Investment analysis Stocks - Psychological aspects
Author : Alexander Stolz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (995 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on the Accuracy and Timing of Sell-side Analysts' Annual Earning Forecasts written by Alexander Stolz and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Noor Hashim
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (824 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Analyst Target Prices written by Noor Hashim and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis presents three essays on analyst target prices. The essays contribute to the major debate on the value of analyst target prices in the capital market by addressing the following three questions: Does a bull-bear valuation analysis increase the accuracy of analysts' target prices? Does analyst ranking affect how informative target prices are to institutional investors? And, do analysts use their cash flow forecasts when setting target prices?In the first essay, I explore whether conducting a bull-bear analysis (BBA) increases target price accuracy. A bull-bear analysis is a risk assessment tool that analysts use to enhance the credibility of their valuations and limit target price uncertainty. Using propensity score matching to control for selection bias, combined with a difference-in-differences estimation to allow for company- and analyst-specific effects, I estimate the effect of supplementing target prices with a BBA on the target price accuracy of US stocks during 2008-2009. The results suggest that target prices are more accurate when analysts supplement them with a BBA. The findings contribute to the literature exploring the determinants of analyst ability to produce accurate target prices. The second essay examines whether analyst ranking status affects institutional investors' decisions to incorporate target price information into their investment strategies. Evidence shows that market participants value analyst target prices. There is limited evidence, however, on how target price revisions influence the decisions of sophisticated investors. The examination of this study is relevant for the economic question: Does analyst reputation mitigate or exacerbate the conflicts of interest that analysts face? Consistent with institutional investor trades being based on superior information, I observe differences in the information content of target price revisions by star and non-star analysts. Additionally, a duration analysis shows that the quality of analyst target price revisions significantly increases the hazard of analysts losing their star ranking. In the final essay, I examine whether analysts' decisions to issue cash flow forecasts depend endogenously on their decision to use these forecasts to set target prices. Using an endogenous switching regression model, with analyst report regimes of disclosure and non-disclosure of cash flow forecasts, I find that cash flow revisions are more important than earnings revisions in explaining the magnitude of target price revisions in the cash flow disclosure regime. Cash flow forecasts influence and are influenced by analyst valuation choices. Additional analysis shows that cash flow-based pseudo-target prices play a greater role in explaining target price implied returns than do earnings-based pseudo-target prices. These findings provide insights into analysts' valuation decision processes and their sophisticated valuation input choices.
Author : Yubin Li
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (937 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Accounting Information and Financial Derivatives written by Yubin Li and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation comprises of three essays: 1) Accounting information and financial derivatives: a literature review 2) The Effect of Option Transaction Costs on Informed Trading in the Option Market around Earnings Announcements; and 3) The Effects of Credit Default Swaps trading on Analyst Forecast Properties. The first essay surveys the previous researches on accounting information and financial derivatives. The financial derivate instruments we mainly focus on are stock option and credit default swaps. Then we also identify some research gaps for future research. The second essay investigates the effect of transaction costs related to trading options on the directional and volatility informed trading in the option market. We find that both forms of informed trading are significantly stronger among firms with lower option bid-ask spread. Importantly, the effect of transaction costs is significant around earnings announcements, but not significant (on average) around randomly chosen dates with no events of consequence. This suggests that transaction costs play a particularly important role during information intensive periods. Trading strategies based on directional informed trading and option transaction costs earn monthly abnormal returns of 1.39% to 1.91%. The third essay investigates whether the initiation of credit default swaps (CDSs) trading can affect analysts' forecast properties. Using a difference-in-difference research design, we find that the onset of CDS trading help analysts to increase forecast accuracy, which is consistent with notion that a new financial market facilitate information discovery and dissemination. This effect is more pronounced for firms with greater information asymmetry and higher leverage. We also find that CDS initiation can depress analysts' strategic forecast optimism. Relying on several proxies for analysts' strategic optimism, we find that the depressing effect is more pronounced for subsamples with higher optimism level. In addition, we find that the depressing effect is stronger when bad news is realized ex post in the earnings announcement date.
Author : Martin Meuter
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on the Performance of Earnings Forecasts and Forward-looking Proxies for Expected Stock Returns written by Martin Meuter and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Gang Li
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (34 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on Information and Asset Prices written by Gang Li and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Binay Kumar Adhikari
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 197 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (922 download)
Download or read book Three Essays in Corporate Finance written by Binay Kumar Adhikari and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays in corporate finance. There are five chapters. In the first essay, we find that local gambling preferences have economically meaningful effects on corporate innovation. Using a county's Catholics-to-Protestants ratio as a proxy for local gambling preferences, we show that firms headquartered in areas with greater tolerance for gambling tend to be more innovative, i.e. they spend more on R & D, and obtain more and better quality patents. These results are supported by several robustness checks, tests to mitigate identification concerns, and analyses of several secondary implications. Investment in innovation makes a stock more lottery-like, a feature desired by individuals with a taste for gambling. Gambling preferences of both local investors and managers appear to influence firms' innovative endeavors and facilitate transforming their industry growth opportunities into firm value. In the second essay, we find robust evidence that banks headquartered in more religious areas take less risk and remain less vulnerable to financial crises. To reduce risk, these banks grow their assets more slowly, hold safer assets, rely less on non-traditional banking, and provide less incentives to their executives to increase risks. Local religiosity has a more pronounced influence on risks among banks for which local investors and managers are more important. But these banks command lower market valuations during normal times. Overall, this paper provides the first empirical evidence of the importance of human behavior in bank risk-taking. In the third essay, I examine the influence of sell-side financial analysts on corporate social responsibility (CSR), and find that firms with greater analyst coverage tend to be less socially responsible. To establish causality, I employ a difference-in-differences (DiD) technique, using brokerage closures and mergers as exogenous shocks to analyst coverage, as well as an instrumental variables approach. Both identification strategies suggest that analyst coverage has a negative causal effect on CSR. My findings are consistent with the view that spending on CSR is a manifestation of agency problem, and that financial analysts exert pressure on managers to cut back such discretionary spending.
Author : Zhongwei Huang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (959 download)
Download or read book Three Essays on the Monitoring Role of Financial Analysts written by Zhongwei Huang and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three chapters that present three standalone essays on the monitoring role of financial analysts. Chapter 1 investigates the monitoring role of financial analysts in the financial reporting process by examining the informativeness and monitoring effect of their written comments on earnings quality. I find that these comments have incremental predictability with respect to future accounting restatements, and convey information to investors beyond that in the earnings forecasts, stock ratings, price targets, and other qualitative text in analyst reports. Further analyses suggest that the market's reaction to these comments is primarily driven by negative comments and comments written with certainty. In addition, controlling for accrual reversals, I find that firms significantly reduce the level of accruals-based earnings management after receiving negative comments, and this reduction is not accompanied by an increase in real activities management. Overall, the first chapter provides direct evidence on analysts' monitoring role in financial reporting. Chapter 2 examines whether and how analysts' monitoring of the financial reporting process alleviates a well-known agency problem in which a manager inflates her compensation by manipulating earnings. I argue that analysts' monitoring reduces a manager's ability to conceal earnings management from directors, thus facilitating directors' adjustment of executive compensation in the presence of earnings management. Consistent with this argument, I find that earnings carry a lower weight in the determination of CEO compensation in firms that are criticized by analysts regarding earnings quality, but only when directors are likely to be aware of the critical analyst reports. The main findings are robust to matching on performance and controlling for firm-fixed effects and are not driven by other text in the analyst reports. Additional analyses suggest that the weight placed on earnings decreases as the actual accruals deviate from analysts' accruals forecasts. Overall, the second chapter emphasizes analysts' monitoring role in alleviating managerial rent extraction in executive compensation. Chapter 3 provides evidence on the impact of recent analyst independence reforms (the National Association of Securities Dealers [NASD] Rule 2711 and the companion New York Stock Exchange [NYSE] Rule 472 Amendment, and the Global Settlement) on analysts' monitoring role in the financial reporting process. The NASD Rule 2711 requires brokerage firms to structurally separate investment banking from equity research; meanwhile, the Global Settlement mandates the participating banks to fund independent research firms to the amount of 432.5 million dollars from 2004 to 2009. I find evidence consistent with an increase in analysts' monitoring effectiveness following the reforms. Further analyses suggest that this increase is primarily driven by the Global Settlement, rather than by the adoption of NASD Rule 2711. The evidence is robust to a difference-in-difference specification with Canadian firms as the control group. Moreover, I document a reversal of the increase in monitoring effectiveness following the end of the Global Settlement's five-year funding. Overall, the third chapter highlights the interaction between the monitoring role of financial analysts and the regulatory environment.
