Thinking Probabilistically

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Thinking Probabilistically

Author : Ariel Amir
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108802354
Total Pages : 243 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (88 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking Probabilistically by : Ariel Amir

Download or read book Thinking Probabilistically written by Ariel Amir and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-12-17 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability theory has diverse applications in a plethora of fields, including physics, engineering, computer science, chemistry, biology and economics. This book will familiarize students with various applications of probability theory, stochastic modeling and random processes, using examples from all these disciplines and more. The reader learns via case studies and begins to recognize the sort of problems that are best tackled probabilistically. The emphasis is on conceptual understanding, the development of intuition and gaining insight, keeping technicalities to a minimum. Nevertheless, a glimpse into the depth of the topics is provided, preparing students for more specialized texts while assuming only an undergraduate-level background in mathematics. The wide range of areas covered - never before discussed together in a unified fashion – includes Markov processes and random walks, Langevin and Fokker–Planck equations, noise, generalized central limit theorem and extreme values statistics, random matrix theory and percolation theory.

Thinking Probabilistically

Author : Ariel Amir
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108479529
Total Pages : 243 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking Probabilistically by : Ariel Amir

Download or read book Thinking Probabilistically written by Ariel Amir and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-12-17 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introductory text providing the reader with a thorough background to the rich world of applications of stochastic processes.

Probabilistic Thinking

Author : Egan J. Chernoff
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 940077155X
Total Pages : 747 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Thinking by : Egan J. Chernoff

Download or read book Probabilistic Thinking written by Egan J. Chernoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 747 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides a necessary, current and extensive analysis of probabilistic thinking from a number of mathematicians, mathematics educators, and psychologists. The work of 58 contributing authors, investigating probabilistic thinking across the globe, is encapsulated in 6 prefaces, 29 chapters and 6 commentaries. Ultimately, the four main perspectives presented in this volume (Mathematics and Philosophy, Psychology, Stochastics and Mathematics Education) are designed to represent probabilistic thinking in a greater context.

Cognition and Chance

Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 113561461X
Total Pages : 798 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (356 download)

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Book Synopsis Cognition and Chance by : Raymond S. Nickerson

Download or read book Cognition and Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004-06-24 with total page 798 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

HBR Guide to Critical Thinking

Author : Harvard Business Review
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1647824478
Total Pages : 156 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (478 download)

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Book Synopsis HBR Guide to Critical Thinking by : Harvard Business Review

Download or read book HBR Guide to Critical Thinking written by Harvard Business Review and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2023-01-31 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tackle complex situations with critical thinking. You're facing a problem at work. There are many ways you can approach the situation, but each comes with its own pros and cons. How do you sort through all the information so that you know you're taking the right path? The answer is in how you think. The HBR Guide to Critical Thinking will help you navigate your most challenging issues, from difficult problems to tough decisions to complex scenarios. By carefully observing the situation, gathering information, inviting other perspectives, and analyzing what's in front of you, you can move forward with confidence while building this crucial leadership skill. You'll learn how to: Question your assumptions Keep an open mind to opposing viewpoints Sidestep cognitive biases Use data—when appropriate Grow comfortable with ambiguity Find innovative and creative solutions Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, with the most trusted brand in business. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.

The Great Mental Models, Volume 1

Author : Shane Parrish
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0593719972
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (937 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 by : Shane Parrish

Download or read book The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

The Cognitive Science of Belief

Author : Julien Musolino
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1009007475
Total Pages : 627 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis The Cognitive Science of Belief by : Julien Musolino

Download or read book The Cognitive Science of Belief written by Julien Musolino and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-11-17 with total page 627 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beliefs play a central role in our lives. They lie at the heart of what makes us human, they shape the organization and functioning of our minds, they define the boundaries of our culture, and they guide our motivation and behavior. Given their central importance, researchers across a number of disciplines have studied beliefs, leading to results and literatures that do not always interact. The Cognitive Science of Belief aims to integrate these disconnected lines of research to start a broader dialogue on the nature, role, and consequences of beliefs. It tackles timeless questions, as well as applications of beliefs that speak to current social issues. This multidisciplinary approach to beliefs will benefit graduate students and researchers in cognitive science, psychology, philosophy, political science, economics, and religious studies.

Stories, Dice, and Rocks That Think

Author : Byron Reese
Publisher : BenBella Books
ISBN 13 : 1637741359
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (377 download)

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Book Synopsis Stories, Dice, and Rocks That Think by : Byron Reese

Download or read book Stories, Dice, and Rocks That Think written by Byron Reese and published by BenBella Books. This book was released on 2022-08-23 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Byron Reese gets to the heart of what makes humans different from all others." —Midwest Book Review What makes the human mind so unique? And how did we get this way? This fascinating tale explores the three leaps in our history that made us what we are—and will change how you think about our future. Look around. Clearly, we humans are radically different from the other creatures on this planet. But why? Where are the Bronze Age beavers? The Iron Age iguanas? In Stories, Dice, and Rocks That Think, Byron Reese argues that we owe our special status to our ability to imagine the future and recall the past, escaping the perpetual present that all other living creatures are trapped in. Envisioning human history as the development of a societal superorganism he names Agora, Reese shows us how this escape enabled us to share knowledge on an unprecedented scale, and predict—and eventually master—the future. Thoughtful, witty, and compulsively readable, Reese unravels our history as an intelligent species in three acts: Act I: Ancient humans undergo “the awakening,” developing the cognitive ability to mentally time-travel using language Act II: In 17th century France, the mathematical framework known as 'probability theory' is born—a science for seeing into the future that we used to build the modern world Act III: Beginning with the invention of the computer chip, humanity creates machines to gaze into the future with even more precision, overcoming the limits of our brains A fresh new look at the history and destiny of humanity, readers will come away from Stories, Dice, and Rocks that Think with a new understanding of what they are—not just another animal, but a creature with a mastery of time itself.

Cognition and Chance

Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1135614628
Total Pages : 450 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (356 download)

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Book Synopsis Cognition and Chance by : Raymond S. Nickerson

Download or read book Cognition and Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004-06-24 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an overview of the necessary information needed to make educational assumptions about the statistical or probable characteristics of a situation. The book can be used as a supplemental text in courses on probability, logic, statistics,

Research on Reasoning with Data and Statistical Thinking: International Perspectives

Author : Gail F. Burrill
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031294599
Total Pages : 375 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (312 download)

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Book Synopsis Research on Reasoning with Data and Statistical Thinking: International Perspectives by : Gail F. Burrill

Download or read book Research on Reasoning with Data and Statistical Thinking: International Perspectives written by Gail F. Burrill and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-07-21 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is derived from selected papers from the Fourteenth International Congress on Mathematical Education Topic Study Group 12, Teaching and Learning Statistics. It describes recent research on curriculum, pedagogy and outreach initiatives from countries as diverse as Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The book has a focus on the use of data in the teaching and learning of statistics across grade levels and begins with an overview of the status of statistics education and the use of data from seven different countries across the continents and the link between research and practice in those countries. Because it contains specific examples of the research, for example, on the ways children learn, the choice and implementation of tasks, or the role of informal inference, the book will be a great resource to those interested and involved in the teaching of statistics, curriculum developers, and statistics education researchers.

The Essentials of Political Analysis

Author : Philip H. Pollock III
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1506305822
Total Pages : 281 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (63 download)

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Book Synopsis The Essentials of Political Analysis by : Philip H. Pollock III

Download or read book The Essentials of Political Analysis written by Philip H. Pollock III and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2015-09-16 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Fifth Edition of The Essentials of Political Analysis equips students with the skills to conduct political analysis and critically assess statistical research. Bestselling author Philip H. Pollock III builds students’ analytic abilities and develops their statistical reasoning with new data, fresh exercises, and engaging examples. This accessible introduction to the essential elements of political analysis walks students through the basics—measuring concepts, describing variables, formulating and testing hypotheses, controlling for alternative explanations, and interpreting graphic displays, and nearly 50 practical exercises motivate them to use their new skills with confidence.

The Yellow Pad

Author : Robert E. Rubin
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0593491394
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (934 download)

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Book Synopsis The Yellow Pad by : Robert E. Rubin

Download or read book The Yellow Pad written by Robert E. Rubin and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2023-05-16 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert Rubin, former secretary of the Treasury and co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, shares thoughts on decision-making developed over more than six decades in markets, business, government, and politics, and offers readers an astute and original guide for navigating uncertain times In 1958, as a college sophomore, Robert Rubin took a class that changed his life. The class was introduction to philosophy, and the professor, Raphael Demos, instilled in his students an idea that was simple yet profound: There is no such thing as certainty. For Rubin, this led to a critically important question: How can we make sound decisions in a fundamentally uncertain world? While serving in some of the most significant roles in markets, business, and government, Rubin has grappled with that question. Time and again, when faced with a high-stakes decision, he turned to his most trusted tool: a simple yellow legal pad. Rubin’s yellow pad (or more recently, his iPad) became an expression of a larger decision-making philosophy that has both lasted and shaped a lifetime. In The Yellow Pad, Rubin lays out that philosophy with depth and detail, and presents a compelling intellectual framework for confronting some of the most difficult issues we face today. The Yellow Pad contains a former Treasury secretary’s approach to economic policymaking. A former Goldman Sachs senior partner’s approach to personal investing and understanding risk. A former director of the National Economic Council’s approach to managing people in both private- and public-sector organizations. And much more. Yet despite his lifetime of experiences, Rubin remains refreshingly open-minded, interested in exploring ideas rather than promoting ideologies. With its combination of wisdom and relevance, The Yellow Pad is an essential guide for anyone looking to make better decisions in life, work, and public policy.

Bounded Thinking

Author : Adam Morton
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191633100
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (916 download)

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Book Synopsis Bounded Thinking by : Adam Morton

Download or read book Bounded Thinking written by Adam Morton and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2012-11-08 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bounded Thinking offers a new account of the virtues of limitation management: intellectual virtues of adapting to the fact that we cannot solve many problems that we can easily describe. Adam Morton argues that we do give one another guidance on managing our limitations, but that this has to be in terms of virtues and not of rules, and in terms of success—knowledge and accomplishment—rather than rationality. He establishes a taxonomy of intellectual virtues, which includes 'paradoxical virtues' that sound like vices, such as the virtue of ignoring evidence and the virtue of not thinking too hard. There are also virtues of not planning ahead, in that some forms of such planning require present knowledge of one's future knowledge that is arguably impossible. A person's best response to many problems depends not on the most rationally promising solution to solving them but on the most likely route to success given the profile of intellectual virtues that the person has and lacks. Morton illustrates his argument with discussions of several paradoxes and conundra. He closes the book with a discussion of intelligence and rationality, and argues that both have very limited usefulness in the evaluation of who will make progress on which problems.

Think Straight

Author : Jon Guy
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 1633887987
Total Pages : 397 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (338 download)

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Book Synopsis Think Straight by : Jon Guy

Download or read book Think Straight written by Jon Guy and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-10-31 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Put simply, Think Straight is an owner’s manual for the human brain. Drawing from the vast history of scientific and cognitive research, this book is a tour de force through the science and philosophy of the human mind, and what it means to think as a rational human being in the 21st century. Our world is awash in mis- and disinformation, baseless conspiracy theories, New Age ideology, anti-science propaganda, and all manner of magical thinking. Pseudo-experts fill the airwaves with false and bogus claims, news media twist and spin information to suit their ends, celebrities and corporations push evidence-free beliefs on their followers, and politicians continue to mislead the masses with false promises and bad thinking. In careful detail, author Jon Guy investigates the art of thinking critically, offering readers the ability to empower themselves and our society at large. In order to think critically, we must also learn what it means to know, what knowledge is, how to investigate, how to question, and how everything from computer algorithms written by geniuses to psychological traits embedded in us from our evolutionary origins conspire to construct a model of reality that we have much reason to doubt. The human mind is not only the most powerful and complex structure ever discovered, it is also riddled with a host of flaws, shortcomings, errors, and limitations, most of which none of us are ever made aware of. Critical thinking is the ability to both capitalize on the strengths and power of human cognition, as well as understand and combat the error-prone nature of our brains. Think Straight encourages us to accept that not everything we think is true and explores how we can compensate for the many errors of our minds. Backed by the best available research and data, and written in clear and decisive language, Think Straight provides readers with the proper guidance and tools to improve your thinking, inform your decisions, avoid fraud and deceit, and make the world a better place to live and prosper.

Bayesian Rationality

Author : Mike Oaksford
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198524498
Total Pages : 342 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (985 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Rationality by : Mike Oaksford

Download or read book Bayesian Rationality written by Mike Oaksford and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2007-02-22 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.

Teaching Statistics in School Mathematics-Challenges for Teaching and Teacher Education

Author : Carmen Batanero
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9789400711310
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (113 download)

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Book Synopsis Teaching Statistics in School Mathematics-Challenges for Teaching and Teacher Education by : Carmen Batanero

Download or read book Teaching Statistics in School Mathematics-Challenges for Teaching and Teacher Education written by Carmen Batanero and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-07-31 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Teaching Statistics in School Mathematics-Challenges for Teaching and Teacher Education results from the Joint ICMI/IASE Study Teaching Statistics in School Mathematics: Challenges for Teaching and Teacher Education. Oriented to analyse the teaching of statistics in school and to recommend improvements in the training of mathematics teachers to encourage success in preparing statistically literate students, the volume provides a picture of the current situation in both the teaching of school statistics and the pre-service education of mathematics teachers. A primary goal of Teaching Statistics in School Mathematics-Challenges for Teaching and Teacher Education is to describe the essential elements of statistics, teacher’s professional knowledge and their learning experiences. Moreover, a research agenda that invites new research, while building from current knowledge, is developed. Recommendations about strategies and materials, available to train prospective teachers in university and in-service teachers who have not been adequately prepared, are also accessible to the reader.

Cognition on Cognition

Author : Jacques Mehler
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262631679
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (316 download)

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Book Synopsis Cognition on Cognition by : Jacques Mehler

Download or read book Cognition on Cognition written by Jacques Mehler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1995 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This broad-ranging volume includes a series of articles that were originally published as a special issue of Cognition produced to celebrate the 50th volume of the journal.This broad-ranging volume includes a series of articles that were originally published as a special issue of Cognition produced to celebrate the 50th volume of the journal. Written by some of the foremost scientists studying different aspects of the mind, the articles review progress achieved over the past twenty-five years in the main areas of the discipline. They provide a unique record of what is happening today in the field of cognition, with an added historical perspective that is often absent from other volumes that seek to cover so much ground.The chapters have been arranged in sections on Neuropsychology, Thinking, and Language and Perception. These thematic areas deal with theoretical aspects ranging from the status of explanations in cognitive science, to evolutionary accounts of human cognitive faculties, to the way in which humans use these faculties to reason about, perceive, and interact with their environment and each other. There are also contributions dealing with the abilities of young infants and articles that relate behaviors to their underlying neural substrata.