Author : Jonathan S. Leonard
Publisher : Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Wage Expectations in the Labor Market by : Jonathan S. Leonard
Download or read book Wage Expectations in the Labor Market written by Jonathan S. Leonard and published by Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research. This book was released on 1980 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a new set of directly observed wage expectations among firms, this paper finds that in general firms' forecasts fail the unbiasedness and efficiency requirements of weak-form rational expectations. These market participants consistently underestimate the wages they actually end up paying, and their expectations do not efficiently utilize the information in past realizations. The mean absolute forecast error of two percent compares with an error of only five percent if static expectations were held. The major source of wage fore-cast error seems to be errors in predicting demand, rather than in predicting supply or the general price level. Wage forecast errors are positively correlated across fields with distinct supply patterns, and are positively correlated with quantity forecast error. The properties of stochastically weighted expectations and the effectiveness of the wage and price controls of the early 1970's are also discussed.