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The Unreliability Of Output Gap Estimates In Real Time
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Book Synopsis How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Book Synopsis The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time by : Athanasios Orphanides
Download or read book The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy by : Francesco Grigoli
Download or read book Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-23 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? by : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Book Synopsis Estimates of the Output Gap in Real Time by : Michael Graff
Download or read book Estimates of the Output Gap in Real Time written by Michael Graff and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Negative Mean Output Gap by : Mr.Shekhar Aiyar
Download or read book The Negative Mean Output Gap written by Mr.Shekhar Aiyar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-08-23 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns than they increase employment during expansions. This is demonstrated in a simple New Keynesian model with asymmetric wage adjustment costs. Using the model's output gap as a benchmark, we further show that common output gap estimation methods exhibit a systematic bias because they assume a zero mean. The bias is especially large in deep recessions when potential output tends to be most severely underestimated.
Book Synopsis Structural Balance Targeting and Output Gap Uncertainty by : Eugen Tereanu
Download or read book Structural Balance Targeting and Output Gap Uncertainty written by Eugen Tereanu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-13 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential output estimation plays a crucial role in conducting fiscal policy based on structural balances. Difficulties in estimating potential output could lead to an erroneous policy stance with a consequent impact on growth. This paper analyzes historical data on revisions of actual and potential growth in the European Union and the implication of these revisions for the measurement of fiscal effort using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB). It finds that revisions in output gap estimates were large, at almost 11⁄2 percent of potential GDP on average. Revisions in potential GDP also contributed significantly to revisions in the estimated CAPB, especially during the crisis years. Given these findings and historical correlations, it proposes an indicative rule of thumb for reducing errors in the measurement of fiscal effort by factoring in that about 30 percent of revisions in actual growth capture changes in potential growth. In other words, the standard advice of “letting automatic stabilizers operate fully” in response to a positive/negative growth shocks likely implies a strengthening/weakening of the structural position.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time by : Anton Cheremukhin
Download or read book Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time written by Anton Cheremukhin and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output--the output gap--satisfies Okun's law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool useful for understanding current economic conditions and guiding policymaking.
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 by : Mark Gertler
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy Making in the European Union by : Martin Larch
Download or read book Fiscal Policy Making in the European Union written by Martin Larch and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ""Fiscal policy making in the European Union is a national prerogative that is carried out and co-ordinated within the remits of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The SGP Member States have agreed upon a rules-based framework which, abstracting from operational details, aims to ensure long-term sustainability of public finances while allowing for short-term fiscal stabilization. The success of the EU fiscal framework depends to a large extent on the effectiveness and accuracy of the tool-kit of indicators and methods used at the EU level to monitor and assess the fiscal performance of the Member States vis-a-vis the requirements of the SGP. The contributions to this volume examine key aspects of the measurement of fiscal policy making in the context of the EU fiscal surveillance framework. They highlight strengths and weaknesses of current assessment practice, including innovations implied by the 2005 revision of the SGP." "--Jacket.
Book Synopsis What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables by : Michal Andrle
Download or read book What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
Book Synopsis Second-Generation Fiscal Rules by : Luc Eyraud
Download or read book Second-Generation Fiscal Rules written by Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog
Book Synopsis The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time by : Athanasios Orphanides
Download or read book The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A stable predictive relationship between inflation and the output gap, often referred to as a Phillips curve, provides the basis for countercyclical monetary policy in many models. In this paper, we evaluate the usefulness of alternative univariate and multivariate estimates of the output gap for predicting inflation. Many of the ex post output gap measures we examine appear to be quite useful for predicting inflation. However, forecasts using real-time estimates of the same measures do not perform nearly as well. The relative usefulness of real-time output gap estimates diminishes further when compared to simple bivariate forecasting models which use past inflation and output growth. Forecast performance also appears to be unstable over time, with models often performing differently over periods of high and low inflation. These results call into question the practical usefulness of the output gap concept for forecasting inflation"--Abstract.
Book Synopsis Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics by : Terence C. Mills
Download or read book Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics written by Terence C. Mills and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-06-25 with total page 1406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following theseminal Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Volume I , this second volume brings together the finestacademicsworking in econometrics today andexploresapplied econometrics, containing contributions onsubjects includinggrowth/development econometrics and applied econometrics and computing.
Book Synopsis Perspectives on Econometrics and Applied Economics by : Mark Taylor
Download or read book Perspectives on Econometrics and Applied Economics written by Mark Taylor and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is dedicated to the memory and the achievements of Professor Sir Clive Granger, economics Nobel laureate and one of the great econometricians and applied economists of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. It comprises contributions from leading econometricians and applied economists who knew Sir Clive and interacted with him over the years, and who wished to pay tribute to him as both a great economist and econometrician, and as a great man. This book was originally published as a special issue of Applied Financial Economics.
Book Synopsis Efficient Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty Based on Recent Forecast Errors by : Malte Knüppel
Download or read book Efficient Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty Based on Recent Forecast Errors written by Malte Knüppel and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time by : Mr.Jens R. Clausen
Download or read book Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time written by Mr.Jens R. Clausen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-02-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time since GDP data is subject to sometimes substantial revisions. In addition to using real-time datasets for the UK and the US, we employ a dataset for real-time German GDP data not used before. We find that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation.
