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The Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle In The Foreign Exchange Market
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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Norman C. Miller
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Norman C. Miller and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2014-09-26 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) puzzle has remained a moot point since it first circulated economic discourse in 1984 and, despite a number of attempts at a solution, the UIP puzzle and other anomalies in Exchange Rate Economics continue to perplex
Book Synopsis The Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market by : Sahil Aggarwal
Download or read book The Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market written by Sahil Aggarwal and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Reinvestigating the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle Via Analysis of Multivariate Tail Dependence in Currency Carry Trades by : Matthew Ames
Download or read book Reinvestigating the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle Via Analysis of Multivariate Tail Dependence in Currency Carry Trades written by Matthew Ames and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The currency carry trade is the investment strategy that involves selling low interest rate currencies in order to purchase higher interest rate currencies, thus profiting from the interest rate differentials. This is a well known financial puzzle to explain, since assuming foreign exchange risk is uninhibited and the markets have rational risk-neutral investors, then one would not expect profits from such strategies. That is uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), the parity condition in which exposure to foreign exchange risk, with unanticipated changes in exchange rates, should result in an outcome that changes in the exchange rate should offset the potential to profit from the interest rate differentials. Given foreign exchange market equilibrium, the interest rate parity condition implies that the expected return on domestic assets will equal the exchange rate-adjusted expected return on foreign currency assets.However, it has been shown empirically, that investors can actually earn profits by borrowing in a country with a lower interest rate, exchanging for foreign currency, and investing in a foreign country with a higher interest rate, whilst allowing for any losses (or gains) from exchanging back to their domestic currency at maturity. Therefore trading strategies that aim to exploit the interest rate differentials can be profitable on average. The intention of this paper is therefore to reinterpret the currency carry trade puzzle in light of heavy tailed marginal models coupled with multivariate tail dependence features. We analyse the returns of currency carry trade portfolios adjusting for tail dependence risk. To achieve this analysis of the multivariate extreme tail dependence we develop several parametric models and perform detailed model comparison. It is thus demonstrated that tail dependencies among specific sets of currencies provide other justifications to the carry trade excess return and also allow us to detect construction and unwinding periods of such carry portfolios.
Book Synopsis Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle by : Lucio Sarno
Download or read book Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle written by Lucio Sarno and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-05 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major market inefficiencies than previously thought. Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile these results with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the anomalies documented in previous research.
Book Synopsis Uncovered Interest Parity by : Peter Isard
Download or read book Uncovered Interest Parity written by Peter Isard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-04 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of the uncovered interest parity assumption. It traces the history of the interest parity concept, summarizes evidence on the empirical validity of uncovered interest parity, and discusses different interpretations of the evidence and the implications for macroeconomic analysis. The uncovered interest parity assumption has been an important building block in multiperiod models of open economies, and although its validity is strongly challenged by the empirical evidence, at least at short time horizons, its retention in macroeconomic models is supported on pragmatic grounds by the lack of much empirical support for existing models of the exchange risk premium.
Book Synopsis Uncovered Interest Parity by : Mr.Peter Isard
Download or read book Uncovered Interest Parity written by Mr.Peter Isard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-05 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides an overview of the uncovered interest parity assumption. It traces the history of the interest parity concept, summarizes evidence on the empirical validity of uncovered interest parity, and discusses the implications for macroeconomic analysis. The uncovered interest parity assumption has been an important building block in multiperiod and continuous time models of open economies, and although its validity is strongly challenged by the empirical evidence, its retention in macroeconomic models is supported on pragmatic grounds, at least for the time being, by the lack of much empirical support for existing models of the exchange risk premium.
Book Synopsis Uncovered Interest Parity and Carry Trades by : Torsten Abendroth
Download or read book Uncovered Interest Parity and Carry Trades written by Torsten Abendroth and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2016 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,0, University of Frankfurt (Main) (Goethe Business School), language: English, abstract: The aim of this thesis is to test UIP by implementing an OLS regression analysis for five currency pairs which, according to CFTC data, global turnover data and carry-to-risk ratios, were among the most popular in the investor community. To increase the significance of this thesis for practitioners, the work will use one-month forward contracts which are used frequently by investors and include bid and ask rates in order to account for transaction costs. In addition, all currency pairs include the US Dollar for reasons of better liquidity, and therefore tighter bid-ask spreads. Moreover, this thesis will present recent findings in literature which try to explain deviations from UIP. Approaches can be separated by the focus on a risk premium, by irrational market behavior or by learning problems and market inefficiency. While most focus is laid on an explanation by a risk premium, it will be shown that it is crucial to combine the different scientific disciplines in order to solve the forward premium puzzle. In addition to this, the thesis will provide an outlook on the future attractiveness of carry trade strategies.
Book Synopsis Violations of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and International Exchange Rate Dependences by : Matthew Ames
Download or read book Violations of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and International Exchange Rate Dependences written by Matthew Ames and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The uncovered interest rate parity puzzle questions the economic relation existing between short term interest rate differentials and exchange rates. One would indeed expect that the differential of interest rates between two countries should be offset by an opposite evolution of the exchange rate between them, hence ruling out any limited risk profit opportunities. However, it has been shown empirically that this relation is not holding and accordingly has led, over the past two decades, to the reinforcement of a well-known trading strategy in financial markets, namely the currency carry trade. This paper investigates how highly leveraged, mass speculator behaviour affects the dependence structure of currency returns. We propose a rigorous statistical modelling approach using two complementary techniques in order to demonstrate that speculative carry trade volumes are informative in both the covariance and tail dependence of high and low interest rate currency returns, whereas the price based factors previously suggested in the literature hold little explanatory power. We add a new feature to the understanding of the link between the UIP condition and the carry trade strategy, specifically attributed to the large joint exchange rate movements in high and low risk environments.The appendices for this paper are available at the following URL: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2638103" http://ssrn.com/abstract=2638103.
Book Synopsis The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited by : Guy Meredith
Download or read book The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited written by Guy Meredith and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-02 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The forward premium is a notoriously poor predictor of exchange rate movements. This failure must reflect deviations from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that generates the appropriate correlation between the forward premium and shocks arising from risk premia or expectations errors. This paper extends McCallum (1994) to show how such a correlation can arise from the response of monetary policy to output and inflation, which are in turn affected by the exchange rate. The theoretical models considered all generate results that are consistent with the forward premium being a biased predictor of short-term exchange rate movements; the bias decreases, however, as the horizon of the exchange rate change lengthens. Another common feature of the models is that the true reduced-form equation for exchange rate changes contains variables other than the interest differential, providing a justification for "eclectic" relationships for forecasting exchange rates. The results, however, remain consistent with using uncovered interest parity as a building block for structural models.
Book Synopsis Uncovered Interest Parity by : Alain P. Chaboud
Download or read book Uncovered Interest Parity written by Alain P. Chaboud and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity by : Mr.Evan Tanner
Download or read book Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity written by Mr.Evan Tanner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-08-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ex-post deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP) – realized differences between dollar returns on identical assets of different currencies – equal the real interest differential plus real exchange rate growth. Among industrialized countries, UIP deviations are largely explained by unanticipated real exchange rate growth, but among developing countries, real interest differentials are “where the action is.” This observation is due to the greater variability of inflation in developing countries, but may also stem from higher and more variable risks and capital controls in these countries. Also, among developing countries with moderate inflation, offsetting comovements of real interest differentials and real exchange growth support the sticky-price hypothesis.
Download or read book Fixes written by Robert P. Flood and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Regressions of ex post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high- interest rate currency tends to appreciate, the `forward discount puzzle.' Using data from the European Monetary System, we find that a large part of the forward discount puzzle vanishes for regimes of fixed exchange rates. That is, deviations from uncovered interest parity appear to vary in a way which is dependent upon the exchange rate regime. By using the many EMS realignments, we are also able to quantify the `peso problem.'
Book Synopsis The Forward Bias Puzzle and Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity by : Giorgio Valente
Download or read book The Forward Bias Puzzle and Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity written by Giorgio Valente and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide empirical evidence that deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition display significant nonlinearities, which have a natural interpretation consistent with several recent theories based on transactions costs or limits to speculation in the foreign exchange market. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major inefficiencies in the foreign exchange market than previously thought. Further, Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile our results with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true data generating process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional linear spot-forward regressions would generate the well known anomalies documented in much previous research.
Book Synopsis The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor Rules by : Charles Engel
Download or read book The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor Rules written by Charles Engel and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent research has found that the Taylor-rule fundamentals have power to forecast changes in U.S. dollar exchange rates out of sample. Our work casts some doubt on that claim. However, we find strong evidence of a related in-sample anomaly. When we include U.S. inflation in the well-known uncovered interest parity regression of the change in the exchange rate on the interest-rate differential, we find that the inflation variable is highly significant and the interest-rate differential is not. Specifically, high U.S. inflation in one month forecasts dollar appreciation in the subsequent month. We introduce a model in which a Taylor rule determines monetary policy, but in which not only monetary shocks but also liquidity shocks drive nominal interest rates. This model can potentially account for the empirical findings.
Book Synopsis Essays on the Puzzles in International Finance by : Seojin Lee
Download or read book Essays on the Puzzles in International Finance written by Seojin Lee and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The overall theme of this dissertation is the explanation of puzzles in international finance. Empirically, exchange rates seem to be disconnected to the economic fundamentals, and it is referred to as the exchange rate disconnect puzzle. Another puzzling feature in foreign exchange market is that high interest rate currency tends to appreciate, and it is called as ``uncovered interest rate parity puzzle.'' Chapter 1 and 3 of this dissertation examine the exchange rate disconnect puzzle, while chapter 2 investigates the explanation for the UIP puzzle. The first chapter, ``Imperfect Proxies for Market Expectations and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle'', develop an econometric framework which can capture the relation between exchange rate and economic variables. Conventional empirical studies assume the linear relation between exchange rate and its determinants implied by the theory. I show that this linear modeling strategy leads to the spurious instance of the exchange rate disconnect puzzle and propose the new model which allows imperfectness of the macro variables as a predictor for market expectation. The proposed model provides empirical evidence that the domestic currency appreciates in response to an unanticipated increase in domestic output growth or inflation. Furthermore, results for out-of-sample predictability tests suggest that the proposed model outperforms the random walk model over various horizons less than two years, for most of the countries under investigation. The second chapter of my dissertation, ``Is It Risk or Expectational Error? Explaining Deviation from Uncovered Interest Parity'' explores the behavior of ex-ante excess return to explain the UIP puzzle. Implementing empirical models of ex-ante excess return has proven to be very difficult and previous attempts have not been successful in explaining what makes ex-ante excess return. In this chapter, I propose the new framework which estimates the ex-ante excess return more efficiently by incorporating information in economic variables. The extracted series show that high inflation or output in the foreign country raises the ex-ante excess return for holding foreign currency, while high inflation or high output in home country lowers it. Moreover, using the survey-based forecast of exchange rate data, I find that ex-ante excess return is strongly connected with the market's systematic forecast error instead of with the implied risk premium. These empirical findings suggest that the market's expectation is not fully rational, and this systematic expectational error results in the UIP puzzle. Lastly, the third chapter, ``Commodity Currency Predictions: the Role of Expectations'', examines the dynamic linkage between commodity prices and exchange rate. Even though exchange rates and commodity prices are highly correlated contemporaneously, commodity prices are not shown to have predictive power for exchange rates. With several time-series techniques and alternative data, such as survey-based forecast of exchange rate and foreign exchange option prices, I show that commodity price is linked to the future exchange rate through the market expectation: markets consider aggregate commodity prices when they form expectations of the exchange rates. These empirical findings suggest that commodity price movements are incorporated into the nominal exchange rate with lasting impact beyond one quarter.
Book Synopsis Puzzles in International Financial Markets by : Karen K. Lewis
Download or read book Puzzles in International Financial Markets written by Karen K. Lewis and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a survey of two basic puzzles in international finance. The first puzzle is the `predictable excess return puzzle.' The returns on foreign currency deposits relative to domestic currency deposits should be equalized based upon uncovered interest parity. However, not only do researchers find that deviations from uncovered interest parity are predictable ex ante, but their variance exceeds the variance in expected exchange rate changes. In the paper, I describe different explanations of this phenomenon including the view that excess returns are driven by a foreign exchange risk premium, peso problems or learning, and market inefficiencies. While the research to date has been able to better define the `predictable excess return puzzle' and to suggest the most likely directions for future progress, no one explanation has provided a full answer to the puzzle. The second puzzle is the `home bias puzzle.' Empirical evidence shows that domestic residents do not diversify sufficiently into foreign stocks. This evidence is clear whether looking at models based on portfolio holdings or outcomes of consumption realizations across countries. In this paper, I examine several possible explanations including non-traded goods and market inefficiencies, although even after considering these possibilities, the puzzle remains.
Book Synopsis Long-horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity by : Guy Meredith
Download or read book Long-horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity written by Guy Meredith and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements, although there is little consensus on why it fails. In contrast to previous studies, which have used relatively short-horizon data, we test UIP using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the G-7 countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP -- all the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to the zero coefficient implied by the random walk hypothesis. We then use a small macroeconomic model to explain the differences between the short- and long-horizon results. Regressions run on data generated by stochastic simulations replicate the important regularities in the actual data, including the sharp differences between short- and long-horizon parameters. In the short run from risk premium shocks in the face of endogenous monetary policy. In the long run, in contrast, exchange rate movements are driven by the "fundamentals," leading to a relationship between interest rates and exchange rates that is more consistent with UIP.
