The Truth Of Uncertainty

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Risk and Uncertainty in a Post-Truth Society

Author : Sander van der Linden
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000022625
Total Pages : 97 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Risk and Uncertainty in a Post-Truth Society by : Sander van der Linden

Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty in a Post-Truth Society written by Sander van der Linden and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-06-10 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume looks at whether it is possible to be more transparent about uncertainty in scientific evidence without undermining public understanding and trust. With contributions from leading experts in the field, this book explores the communication of risk and decision-making in an increasingly post-truth world. Drawing on case studies from climate change to genetic testing, the authors argue for better quality evidence synthesis to cut through the noise and highlight the need for more structured public dialogue. For uncertainty in scientific evidence to be communicated effectively, they conclude that trustworthiness is vital: the data and methods underlying statistics must be transparent, valid, and sound, and the numbers need to demonstrate practical utility and add social value to people’s lives. Presenting a conceptual framework to help navigate the reader through the key social and scientific challenges of a post-truth era, this book will be of great relevance to students, scholars, and policy makers with an interest in risk analysis and communication.

The Truth of Uncertainty

Author : Edward L. Galligan
Publisher : University of Missouri Press
ISBN 13 : 9780826211927
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (119 download)

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Book Synopsis The Truth of Uncertainty by : Edward L. Galligan

Download or read book The Truth of Uncertainty written by Edward L. Galligan and published by University of Missouri Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Galligan (Professor Emeritus, English, Western Michigan U.-Kalamazoo) argues that contemporary American critics should embrace literary truths with all of their uncertainties rather than cling to make- believe certainties of ideologies. He celebrates values commonly associated with modern, not postmodern, criticism, applying them to contemporary works in a series of fresh and unusual inquiries. He finds implications for criticism in work from the physical sciences and in the works of largely ignored novelists. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Masters of Uncertainty

Author : Phaedra Daipha
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022629868X
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)

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Book Synopsis Masters of Uncertainty by : Phaedra Daipha

Download or read book Masters of Uncertainty written by Phaedra Daipha and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2015-11-17 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In Masters of Uncertainty, Phaedra Daipha offers a new framework for understanding decision-making practice after spending years immersed in a northeastern office of the National Weather Service. Arguing that forecasters have made a virtue of the unpredictability of the weather, Daipha shows how they enlist an onmivorous appetite for information and improvisational collage techniques to create a locally meaningful forecast on their computer screens. This richly detailed and lucidly written book advances a theory of decision making that foregrounds the pragmatic and situated nature of expert cognition and casts new light on how we make decisions in the digital age"--Page {4] of cover.

Uncertainty

Author : William Briggs
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319397567
Total Pages : 274 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : William Briggs

Download or read book Uncertainty written by William Briggs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-15 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.

Uncertainty

Author : Kostas Kampourakis
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0190871660
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (98 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : Kostas Kampourakis

Download or read book Uncertainty written by Kostas Kampourakis and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anti-evolutionists, climate denialists, and anti-vaxxers, among others, question some of the best-established scientific findings by referring to the uncertainties in these areas of research. Uncertainty: How It Makes Science Advance shows that uncertainty is an inherent feature of science that makes it advance by motivating further research.

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight

Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

The Art of Uncertainty

Author : Dennis Merritt Jones
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1101516984
Total Pages : 306 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis The Art of Uncertainty by : Dennis Merritt Jones

Download or read book The Art of Uncertainty written by Dennis Merritt Jones and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2011-06-09 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What if we could learn to accept I don't know and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? The Art of Uncertainty is an invitation to the reader to consider its essential message: learning to love the unknown by staying present in the moment. If the difficulties of recent years have taught us anything-particularly those who "did everything right" and still saw it all fall apart-it's that none of us has as much control over our lives as we believe. The only thing we can control is our next thought. What if we could learn how to be at peace with uncertainty and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? What if we discovered that a new paradigm can be more fulfilling, more rewarding, and more peaceful than what we have known? Living in the I don't know and loving it is an art form we can all master, and The Art of Uncertainty is the perfect guidebook.

Uncertainty Theory

Author : Baoding Liu
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642139582
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (421 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty Theory by : Baoding Liu

Download or read book Uncertainty Theory written by Baoding Liu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-11-07 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty theory is a branch of mathematics based on normality, monotonicity, self-duality, countable subadditivity, and product measure axioms. Uncertainty is any concept that satisfies the axioms of uncertainty theory. Thus uncertainty is neither randomness nor fuzziness. It is also known from some surveys that a lot of phenomena do behave like uncertainty. How do we model uncertainty? How do we use uncertainty theory? In order to answer these questions, this book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertainty theory, including uncertain programming, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, uncertain differential equation, uncertain logic, uncertain entailment, and uncertain inference. Mathematicians, researchers, engineers, designers, and students in the field of mathematics, information science, operations research, system science, industrial engineering, computer science, artificial intelligence, finance, control, and management science will find this work a stimulating and useful reference.

The Oasis Within

Author : Tom Morris
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780996712309
Total Pages : 194 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (123 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oasis Within by : Tom Morris

Download or read book The Oasis Within written by Tom Morris and published by . This book was released on 2015-09-01 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a book about our inner power to live and flourish in a challenging world. In 1934, a thirteen-year-old boy from a small village in western Egypt is on his first trip across the desert when he discovers something about his life that transforms his future. He's traveling with his seventy-year-old uncle, who is exceptionally wise for any stage of life. The boy and his older relative are also accompanied by a caravan of merchants and animals traveling to Cairo to bring goods to market. The young man has had no idea what awaits him on this trip. His uncle will decide to share with him the basic elements of a practical and yet profound philosophy of life, as they deal with events and challenges that appear throughout the journey. And this wisdom for living will prove to have come at just the right time, when the boy learns that he is on his way, not just to a marketplace, but to a life change that will thrust him into new dangers and opportunities beyond anything he has ever imagined. This book is the short prologue to a forthcoming series of seven novels entitled, Walid and the Mysteries of Phi.

Embracing Uncertainty

Author : Susan Jeffers
Publisher : Macmillan + ORM
ISBN 13 : 1429975865
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (299 download)

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Book Synopsis Embracing Uncertainty by : Susan Jeffers

Download or read book Embracing Uncertainty written by Susan Jeffers and published by Macmillan + ORM. This book was released on 2007-04-01 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Author of Feel The Fear And Do It Anyway From the multi-million bestselling author of Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway comes a powerful and healing book designed to offer a safety net in a world of never-ending change. It may be one of the most comforting and life-affirming books you will ever read. With her invaluable insights and exercises, Susan Jeffers gives you the tools you need to deal with all the uncertainty in your life with a sense of peace and possibility. You will learn: - Forty-two exercises to help make your life an exciting adventure instead of a continuous worry - How to lighten up and put problems into a life-affirming perspective - The amazing power of the word "maybe" - And much more. You will discover that there is a wondrous, joyous, and abundant life that can exist in the presence of uncertainty. The question is, "What do you need to do to reach this wonderful state?" And the answers abound in Embracing Uncertainty..

Uncertainty

Author : David Lindley
Publisher : Anchor
ISBN 13 : 0307389480
Total Pages : 274 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (73 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : David Lindley

Download or read book Uncertainty written by David Lindley and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2008-02-12 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gripping, entertaining, and vividly-told narrative of a radical discovery that sent shockwaves through the scientific community and forever changed the way we understand the world. Werner Heisenberg’s “uncertainty principle” challenged centuries of scientific understanding, placed him in direct opposition to Albert Einstein, and put Niels Bohr in the middle of one of the most heated debates in scientific history. Heisenberg’s theorem stated that there were physical limits to what we could know about sub-atomic particles; this “uncertainty” would have shocking implications. In a riveting and lively account, David Lindley captures this critical episode and explains one of the most important scientific discoveries in history, which has since transcended the boundaries of science and influenced everything from literary theory to television.

Managing Project Uncertainty

Author : David Cleden
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351920413
Total Pages : 131 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Project Uncertainty by : David Cleden

Download or read book Managing Project Uncertainty written by David Cleden and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dealing effectively with uncertainty requires today's project manager to be familiar with a broad spectrum of strategies, encompassing both 'hard' and 'soft' methods. This theme of unified thinking (i.e. the need to selectively draw upon a wide range of strategies in any given situation) will differentiate the book from its contemporaries. By picking up where traditional risk management techniques begin to fail, it brings together leading-edge thinking from a variety of disciplines and shows how these techniques can be used to conquer uncertainty in projects. The ability to make good decisions when faced with uncertainty is the real challenge. It is a universal truth that a decision is only as good as the information it is based on. But good information is often hard to come by, and all projects are vulnerable to the unknown and the unknowable. Thus, uncertainty becomes the sworn enemy of the project manager. Wherever we try to analyse, quantify, plan and act, uncertainty lies in wait to surprise us with its ambiguity and unpredictability. It lurks in every stage of the project lifecycle: in the planning (how long will this really take?), the initiation (this isn't the situation I expected!), the execution (who could have foreseen that happening?), and even the completion of a project (where are the expected benefits?). But managing uncertainty is a lot more than just applying risk management techniques. It requires a deep appreciation of how uncertainty arises and, by recognising its different guises, the appropriate strategies can be formulated. If we can learn how to reduce uncertainty, we can make better management decisions and increase the chances of the project succeeding. This book addresses five key questions: ¢ Why is there uncertainty in projects? ¢ How do you spot the symptoms of uncertainty, preferably at an early stage? ¢ What can be done to avoid uncertainty? ¢ What strategies can be used to deal with project uncertainty? ¢ How can both the individual and the organisation learn to cope more effectively in the future? The reader is assumed to be a either a project management professional, or a senior manager looking for ways to improve project management strategy within their organisation. As such, a foundation in project management basics is assumed, although not essential. The book then builds on this by exposing new ideas and concepts, and shows how these can be harnessed to tackle uncertainty in its many guises.

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Author : John Kay
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 1324004789
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by : John Kay

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Surfing Uncertainty

Author : Andy Clark
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0190217014
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Surfing Uncertainty by : Andy Clark

Download or read book Surfing Uncertainty written by Andy Clark and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exciting new theories in neuroscience, psychology, and artificial intelligence are revealing minds like ours as predictive minds, forever trying to guess the incoming streams of sensory stimulation before they arrive. In this up-to-the-minute treatment, philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark explores new ways of thinking about perception, action, and the embodied mind.

The Aesthetics of Uncertainty

Author : Janet Wolff
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231140967
Total Pages : 198 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (311 download)

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Book Synopsis The Aesthetics of Uncertainty by : Janet Wolff

Download or read book The Aesthetics of Uncertainty written by Janet Wolff and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract:

The Blind Spot

Author : William Byers
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400838150
Total Pages : 223 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis The Blind Spot by : William Byers

Download or read book The Blind Spot written by William Byers and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-03-28 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why absolute certainty is impossible in science In today's unpredictable and chaotic world, we look to science to provide certainty and answers—and often blame it when things go wrong. The Blind Spot reveals why our faith in scientific certainty is a dangerous illusion, and how only by embracing science's inherent ambiguities and paradoxes can we truly appreciate its beauty and harness its potential. Crackling with insights into our most perplexing contemporary dilemmas, from climate change to the global financial meltdown, this book challenges our most sacredly held beliefs about science, technology, and progress. At the same time, it shows how the secret to better science can be found where we least expect it—in the uncertain, the ambiguous, and the inevitably unpredictable. William Byers explains why the subjective element in scientific inquiry is in fact what makes it so dynamic, and deftly balances the need for certainty and rigor in science with the equally important need for creativity, freedom, and downright wonder. Drawing on an array of fascinating examples—from Wall Street's overreliance on algorithms to provide certainty in uncertain markets, to undecidable problems in mathematics and computer science, to Georg Cantor's paradoxical but true assertion about infinity—Byers demonstrates how we can and must learn from the existence of blind spots in our scientific and mathematical understanding. The Blind Spot offers an entirely new way of thinking about science, one that highlights its strengths and limitations, its unrealized promise, and, above all, its unavoidable ambiguity. It also points to a more sophisticated approach to the most intractable problems of our time.

Know Doubt

Author : John Ortberg
Publisher : Zondervan
ISBN 13 : 031032503X
Total Pages : 194 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Know Doubt by : John Ortberg

Download or read book Know Doubt written by John Ortberg and published by Zondervan. This book was released on 2009-12-21 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ortberg demonstrates how doubt is very much a part of faith and how uncertainty can lead to trust. "The beliefs that really matter," he writes, "are the ones that guide our behavior. We cannot hope without faith, and so we must not hope for something but someone--Jesus Christ.