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Author : Philip Liu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (299 download)
Download or read book The Role of International Shocks in Australia's Business Cycle written by Philip Liu and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Philip Liu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book The Effects of International Shocks on Australia's Business Cycle written by Philip Liu and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article examines the sources of Australia's business cycle fluctuations. The cyclical component of gross domestic product is extracted using the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and a structural Vector autoregressive model (VAR) model is identified using robust sign restrictions derived from a structural small open economy model. In contrast to previous VAR studies, international factors are found to contribute to over half of the output forecast errors whereas demand shocks have relatively modest effects.
Author : Mr.Paul Cashin
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781451858501
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (585 download)
Download or read book Key Features of Australian Business Cycles written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2001-11-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies and describes the key features of Australian business cycles during 1959-2000. In particular, we identify the chronologies in Australia's classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth). We find that while there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in Australia's classical cycle, on both measures the Australian growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, our results indicate that over the sample period Australian (filtered) output and prices have moved in a counter-cyclical fashion, suggesting a dominance of shocks to aggregate supply affecting the Australian economy.
Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author : Jamie Lee Cross
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (144 download)
Download or read book Essays on Economic and Policy Time Variations in Small Open Economies written by Jamie Lee Cross and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of four research papers. The first three papers explore the prevalence and significance of time variation within the Australian economy. The final paper is distinct in that it analyzes the effects of economic and policy uncertainty on the Canadian economy. In the first paper (Chapter 2), I address recent concerns that Australian monetary policy is currently less effective than in the past. To investigate this hypothesis, I estimate a time varying structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The main result is that monetary policy effectiveness has increased over the sample period, with little evidence to support the claim of a weaker transmission mechanism since the 2007/08 global financial crisis. In the second paper (Chapter 3 - joint with Aubrey Poon), we build on the results in the first paper by investigating the forecasting properties of Gaussian and Student's-t distributed classes of time varying autoregressive models when predicting Australian macroeconomic variables. The main result is that time varying parameters, stochastic volatility and the Student's-t error distribution are all important modeling features of the data. More specifically, a VAR model with the proposed features provides the best inflation and interest rate forecasts over the entire sample. Surprisingly, a simple rolling window autoregressive model provides the best real GDP growth forecasts. In the third paper (Chapter 4 - joint with Aubrey Poon), we build on the results in the first two papers, by quantifying the impacts of international shocks in driving Australian business cycle fluctuations. Our methodology builds on classes of Gaussian and Student's-t distributed, time varying panel VAR models, by proposing a fat-tailed common stochastic volatility factor. We find an important asymmetry in the effects of international shocks, with around 47 percent of negative and 68 percent of positive fluctuations resulting from foreign disturbances. More generally, international shocks have contributed to around half of all Australian business cycle fluctuations over the past two decades. The fourth paper (Chapter 5 - joint with Aubrey Poon, Joshua Chan and Timothy Kam), deviates from the first three papers in that it uses Canadian data. Our objective is to quantify the impacts of uncertainty shocks to the business cycle fluctuations of a small open economy. Using a Bayesian-estimated structural model, we quantify which time-varying risk - in domestic demand or supply conditions, in domestic monetary or fiscal policy, or, in international economic and policy spillovers factors - matter for a small open economy like Canada. Our results suggest that the historical movements in Canadian real GDP are due largely to domestic fiscal- and monetary-policy shocks, and, due to non-negligible time variations in the riskiness of these policy shocks.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781451830248
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (32 download)
Download or read book New Zealand: Selected Issues written by International Monetary Fund and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2003-05-02 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper examines the external linkages of the New Zealand economy. Empirical results from vector autoregressive models suggest that economic activity in Australia tends to have more of a significant direct impact on New Zealand than does activity in the United States. Fluctuations in the U.S. GDP, however, appear to be transmitted to New Zealand indirectly through their effects on the Australian economy. Financial linkages also have been important components in transmitting shocks from Australia and the United States to the New Zealand economy.
Author : M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464815283
Total Pages : 475 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)
Download or read book A Decade after the Global Recession written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-19 with total page 475 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.
Author : Mardi H. Dungey
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book International Transmissions to Australia written by Mardi H. Dungey and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the influences of the world's two largest developed economies, namely the USA and the Euro area, on Australia as an exemplar of a small open economy. To do so, we specify and estimate a structural VAR with bilateral linkages between the two large economies, and allow shocks originating in either to affect the Australian economy. More specifically, we show the role of foreign output shocks, the differential effects of USA- or Euro-area-sourced inflation and interest rate shocks on the Australian economy, and the relative unimportance of these foreign shocks to variations in the value of the Australian currency.
Author : Reserve Bank of Australia
Publisher : Reserve Bank of Australia and Australian Treasury
ISBN 13 : 9780987148858
Total Pages : 392 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (488 download)
Download or read book The Australian Economy in the 2000s written by Reserve Bank of Australia and published by Reserve Bank of Australia and Australian Treasury. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This is the fourth time the Reserve Bank has held a conference to review the Australian economy over the preceding decade. These decadal reviews provide an opportunity to place the events that have shaped the economy in perspective, consider patterns of structural change, and reflect on the persistent themes through the decade and across successive decades. The 2000s were particularly eventful for both the international and Australian economies. There were: two recessions in many countries; the largest international financial crisis since the Great Depression; the ongoing rapid development of Asia; asset booms and busts; and Australia experienced the longest sustained increase in commodity prices and the terms of trade in the nation's history." -- Introduction.
Author : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451875657
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Author : Laurent Ferrara
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319790757
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451870019
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451871325
Total Pages : 77 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts? written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42
Author : Alistair Dieppe
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464816093
Total Pages : 552 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)
Download or read book Global Productivity written by Alistair Dieppe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475561008
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Author : Mr.Serhat Solmaz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513598988
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy written by Mr.Serhat Solmaz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-23 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VAR consisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for small open economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolbox can be used for “nowcasting” the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that external shocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.
Author : Jordi Galí
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226278875
Total Pages : 663 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
