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The Management Of Uncertainty Approaches Methods And Applications
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Book Synopsis The Management of Uncertainty: Approaches, Methods and Applications by : Luc Wilkin
Download or read book The Management of Uncertainty: Approaches, Methods and Applications written by Luc Wilkin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For thirty years, the literature on decision-making and planning has been divided into two camps : work premised on rational models of choice and work designed to discredit such models. The sustained critic of fully rational decision-making theories has al ready a long history and a constant message to deliver : in practice, consequential decision-making hardly fulfills the canons of perfect rationality. There is also evidence that decision-making and planning are not unitary processes. Although the concept of "decision-making" connotes the idea of a single process, making a single choice involves a complex of processing tasks : structuring the problem, finding alternatives worth considering, deciding what information is relevant, assessing various consequences, and a variety of others. The aim of this volume is to bring together and try to inter relate some of the concepts and relevant knowledge from various disciplines concerned with one important aspect of this complex process : the management of uncertainty. It is hardly necessary to reiterate the case made by numerous authors about our changing and increasingly uncertain world. Suffice it to say here that it is uncertainty about the future, and in many cases about the past and the present also, which makes decision-making and planning so difficul t. The management of uncertainty may be defined as the way in which uncertainty is treated and processed in decision-making.
Book Synopsis The management of uncertainty : approaches, methods and applications by : Luc Wilkin
Download or read book The management of uncertainty : approaches, methods and applications written by Luc Wilkin and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The management of uncertainty: approaches, methods and applications by :
Download or read book The management of uncertainty: approaches, methods and applications written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Management of Uncertainty by : Alan Sutton
Download or read book The Management of Uncertainty written by Alan Sutton and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Scaling and Uncertainty Analysis in Ecology by : Jianguo Wu
Download or read book Scaling and Uncertainty Analysis in Ecology written by Jianguo Wu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-07-02 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book of its kind – explicitly considering uncertainty and error analysis as an integral part of scaling. The book draws together a series of important case studies to provide a comprehensive review and synthesis of the most recent concepts, theories and methods in scaling and uncertainty analysis. It includes case studies illustrating how scaling and uncertainty analysis are being conducted in ecology and environmental science.
Book Synopsis Management of Uncertainty by : Gudela Grote
Download or read book Management of Uncertainty written by Gudela Grote and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-09-17 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As I write, the financial systems of the world are collapsing with still no clear indication of what the consequences will be and which measures should be taken to avoid such a crisis in the future. There seems to be agreement though, that the financial instruments introduced in the past few decades entailed far too much complexity and uncertainty and that there was too little regulatory control over the use of these instruments. Management of uncertainty with the aim of achieving self-control is the core concern of this book. It was not written with a focus on financial systems, but many concepts developed in this book are applicable to this field as well. The - neric principles of reducing, maintaining or increasing uncertainties in view of the different contingencies an organization is faced with, the fundamental issue of how much control is possible and who should be in control, and the question of how much and what kind of regulation is necessary with the overall aim of finding an appropriate balance between system stability and flexibility are at the centre of heated debates on the future of finance.
Book Synopsis How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk by : Stephen Ward
Download or read book How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk written by Stephen Ward and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-11-30 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since I wrote the Foreword for the second edition of this book, risk management processes have become much more widely used, but controversy about what should be done and how best to do it has grown. Managing risk is a risky business. Chapman and Ward provide an in-depth explanation of why it is important to understand and manage underlying uncertainty in all its forms, in order to realise opportunities more fully and enhance corporate performance. They show what best practice should look like. The implications go well beyond the conventional wisdom of project risk management, providing an enlightening new perspective. —Professor Tony M. Ridley Imperial College London, Past President, Institution of Civil Engineers Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward continue to educate the profession with this masterful exposition of the differences between, and the potentials for combinations of, risk, uncertainty and opportunity. Particularly welcome is the way they integrate this trio into the project lifecycle – the bedrock of project management control and organization. —Peter W.G. Morris Head of School and Professor of Construction and Project Management University College London Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward’s books on Project Risk Management have been an essential part of my repertoire for twenty years, and they are top of my recommended reading for the courses I do on that subject. In this book they have enhanced their previous work to focus on uncertainty management and emphasise more strongly opportunities for improving project performance, rather then just identifying what can go wrong. A structured process is an essential part of managing project uncertainty, and their process is one of the most powerful. This book will be added to my repertoire. —Rodney Turner Professor of Project Management, SKEMA Business School Lille A profoundly important book. With How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk, Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward take a good thing and make it better. Members of the project management profession have been influenced for years by their insights into project risk management. With this latest instalment the authors demonstrate that risk and uncertainty needn’t be dreaded; in fact, the reverse side of the ‘risk coin’ has always been opportunity. My sincere appreciation to Chapman and Ward for turning this particular coin over and showing readers, academic and practitioner alike, the opportunity embedded in managing projects. —Jeffrey K. Pinto Andrew Morrow and Elizabeth Lee Black Chair in Management of Technology Sam and Irene Black School of Business, Penn State Erie
Author :Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan Publisher :Psychology Press ISBN 13 :9780415369404 Total Pages :312 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (694 download)
Book Synopsis Managing Uncertainties in Networks by : Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan
Download or read book Managing Uncertainties in Networks written by Johannes Franciscus Maria Koppenjan and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite sophisticated technology and knowledge, the strategic networks and games required to solve uncertainties becomes more complex and more important than ever before.
Book Synopsis Possibilistic methods for uncertainty treatment by : Enrico Zio
Download or read book Possibilistic methods for uncertainty treatment written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2014-06-02 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors propose a method for assessing the performance of a maintenance policy whilst accounting for uncertainty in various parameters of the degradation model. The method is appropriate for the representation and propagation of epistemic uncertainty which is elicited from an expert, who can provide a family of confidence intervals for each uncertain parameter. Information elicited from the expert is described using possibility distributions and propagated through the degradation model using fuzzy random variables and the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence. In classical approaches to uncertainty propagation based on probability theory, probability distributions are used to represent information obtained from experts. However, expert judgment is often expressed using imprecise linguistic statements, and the imposition of specific probability distributions over-constrains this uncertain information in a arbitrary and unjustified manner. Possibility theory allows the epistemic uncertainty arising from expert opinion to be represented in an arguably more rigorous manner, without introducing additional bias. A practical case study concerning the maintenance of a check valve of a turbo-pump lubricating system in a nuclear power plant illustrates the method. A rupture failure model caused by fatigue is modeled, and a Condition-Based Maintenance policy is applied to the component over a fixed time horizon. The performance of the maintenance policy is assessed in terms of cost and component unavailability.
Book Synopsis Applications of Uncertainty Formalisms by : Anthony Hunter
Download or read book Applications of Uncertainty Formalisms written by Anthony Hunter and published by Springer. This book was released on 2003-06-29 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introductory review of uncertainty formalisms by the volume editors begins the volume. The first main part of the book introduces some of the general problems dealt with in research. The second part is devoted to case studies; each presentation in this category has a well-delineated application problem and an analyzed solution based on an uncertainty formalism. The final part reports on developments of uncertainty formalisms and supporting technology, such as automated reasoning systems, that are vital to making these formalisms applicable. The book ends with a useful subject index. There is considerable synergy between the papers presented. The representative collection of case studies and associated techniques make the volume a particularly coherent and valuable resource. It will be indispensable reading for researchers and professionals interested in the application of uncertainty formalisms as well as for newcomers to the topic.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Approaches for Spatial Data Modeling and Processing by : Frederick E. Petry
Download or read book Uncertainty Approaches for Spatial Data Modeling and Processing written by Frederick E. Petry and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-03-10 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We are facing an immense growth of digital data and information resources, both in terms of size, complexity, modalities and intrusiveness. Almost every aspect of our existence is being digitally captured. This is exemplified by the omnipresent existence of all kinds of data storage, far beyond those stored in traditional relational databases. The spectrum of data being digitally stored runs from multimedia data repositories to your purchases in most stores. Every tweet that you broadcast is captured for posterity. Needless to say this situation posses new research opportunities, challenges and problems in the ways we store, manipulate, search, and - in general - make use of such data and information. Attempts to cope with these problems have been emerging all over the world with thousands of people devoted to developing tools and techniques to deal with this new area of research. One of the prominent scholars and researchers in this field was the late Professor Ashley Morris who died suddenly and tragically at a young age. Ashley's career begun in industry, where he specialized in databases.
Book Synopsis Scientific Methods for the Treatment of Uncertainty in Social Sciences by : Jaime Gil-Aluja
Download or read book Scientific Methods for the Treatment of Uncertainty in Social Sciences written by Jaime Gil-Aluja and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-06-17 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of selected papers presented at the SIGEF conference, held at the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Girona (Spain), 06-08 July, 2015. This edition of the conference has been presented with the slogan “Scientific methods for the treatment of uncertainty in social sciences”. There are different ways for dealing with uncertainty in management. The book focuses on soft computing theories and their role in assessing uncertainty in a complex world. It gives a comprehensive overview of quantitative management topics and discusses some of the most recent developments in all the areas of business and management in soft computing including Decision Making, Expert Systems and Forgotten Effects Theory, Forecasting Models, Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Sets, Modelling and Simulation Techniques, Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms and Optimization and Control. The book might be of great interest for anyone working in the area of management and business economics and might be especially useful for scientists and graduate students doing research in these fields.
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the International Symposium on Engineering under Uncertainty: Safety Assessment and Management (ISEUSAM - 2012) by : Subrata Chakraborty
Download or read book Proceedings of the International Symposium on Engineering under Uncertainty: Safety Assessment and Management (ISEUSAM - 2012) written by Subrata Chakraborty and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-12 with total page 1349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International Symposium on Engineering under Uncertainty: Safety Assessment and Management (ISEUSAM - 2012) is organized by Bengal Engineering and Science University, India during the first week of January 2012 at Kolkata. The primary aim of ISEUSAM 2012 is to provide a platform to facilitate the discussion for a better understanding and management of uncertainty and risk, encompassing various aspects of safety and reliability of engineering systems. The conference received an overwhelming response from national as well as international scholars, experts and delegates from different parts of the world. Papers received from authors of several countries including Australia, Canada, China, Germany, Italy, UAE, UK and USA, besides India. More than two hundred authors have shown their interest in the symposium. The Proceedings presents ninety two high quality papers which address issues of uncertainty encompassing various fields of engineering, i.e. uncertainty analysis and modelling, structural reliability, geotechnical engineering, vibration control, earthquake engineering, environmental engineering, stochastic dynamics, transportation system, system identification and damage assessment, and infrastructure engineering.
Book Synopsis Managing Risk and Uncertainty by : Richard Friberg
Download or read book Managing Risk and Uncertainty written by Richard Friberg and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making.
Book Synopsis Modeling and Management of Resources under Uncertainty by : Thomas L. Vincent
Download or read book Modeling and Management of Resources under Uncertainty written by Thomas L. Vincent and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This vol ume contains the proceedings of the second U. S. -Austral ia workshop on Renewable Resource Management held at the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 9-12, 1985. The workshop was jointly sponsored by the National Science Foundation (USA) and the Department of Science and Technology (Austral ia) under the U. S. -Austral ia Cooperative Science Program. The objective of the workshop was to focus on problems associated with the management of renewable resource systems. A particular emphasis was given to methods for handling uncertain elements whieh are present in any real system. Toward this end, the partiei pants were chosen so that the collective expertise included mathematical modeling, dynamical control/game theory, ecology, and practical management of real systems. Each participant was invited to give an informal presentation in his field of expertise as related to the overall theme. The formal papers (contained in this vo 1 ume) were written after the workshop so that the authors coul d util ize the workshop experience in relating their own work to others. To further encourage this exchange, each paper contained in this volume was reviewed by two other participants who then wrote formal comments. These comments (with author's reply in some cases) are attached to the end of each paper.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by : Terje Aven
Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Book Synopsis Rule Technologies. Research, Tools, and Applications by : Jose Julio Alferes
Download or read book Rule Technologies. Research, Tools, and Applications written by Jose Julio Alferes and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-27 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th International RuleML Symposium, RuleML 2016, held in New York, NY, USA during July 2016. The 19 full papers, 1 short paper, 2 keynote abstracts, 2 invited tutorial papers, 1 invited standard paper, presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 36 submissions. RuleML is a leading conference aiming to build bridges between academia and industry in the field of rules and its applications, especially as part of the semantic technology stack. It is devoted to rule-based programming and rule-based systems including production rule systems, logic programming rule engines, and business rule engines and business rule management systems, Semantic Web rule languages and rule standards and technologies, and research on inference rules, transformation rules, decision rules, and ECA rules.
