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The Information Of Option Volume For Future Stock Prices
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Book Synopsis The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices by : Allen M. Poteshman
Download or read book The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices written by Allen M. Poteshman and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present strong evidence that option trading volume contains information about future stock prices. Taking advantage of a unique data set, we construct put-call ratios from option volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. Stocks with low put-call ratios outperform stocks with high put-call ratios by more than 40 basis points on the next day and more than 1% over the next week. Partitioning our option signals into components that are publicly and nonpublicly observable, we find that the economic source of this predictability is nonpublic information possessed by option traders rather than market inefficiency. We also find greater predictability for stocks with higher concentrations of informed traders and from option contracts with greater leverage.
Book Synopsis The Information of Option Volume for Future Stock Prices by : Jun Pan
Download or read book The Information of Option Volume for Future Stock Prices written by Jun Pan and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present strong evidence that option trading volume contains information about future stock price movements. Taking advantage of a unique dataset from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, we construct put-call ratios from option volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. On a risk-adjusted basis, stocks with low put-call ratios outperform stocks with high put-call ratios by more than 40 basis points on the next day and more than 1% over the next week. Partitioning our option signals into components that are publicly and non-publicly observable, we find that the economic source of this predictability is non-public information possessed by option traders rather than market inefficiency. We also find greater predictability from option signals for stocks with higher concentrations of informed traders and from option contracts with greater leverage.
Book Synopsis The Information in Option Volume for Stock Prices by : Allen M. Poteshman
Download or read book The Information in Option Volume for Stock Prices written by Allen M. Poteshman and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We find strong evidence of information transmission from the options market to underlying stock prices. Taking advantage of a unique dataset from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, we construct put to call volume ratios for underlying stocks, using only volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. Performing daily cross-sectional analyses from 1990 to 2001, we find that buying stocks with low put/call ratios and selling stocks with high put/call ratios generates an expected return of 40 basis points per day and 1 percent per week. This result is present during each year of our sample period, and is not affected by the exclusion of earnings announcement windows. Moreover, the result is stronger for smaller stocks, indicating that the options market may be a more important avenue for information transmission for stocks with less efficient information flow. Our analysis also sheds light on the type of investor behind the informed option trading. Specifically, we find that option trading from customers of full service brokers provides the strongest predictability, while that from firm proprietary traders is not informative. Furthermore, our analysis shows that while public customers on average trade in the options market as contrarians -- buying fresh new puts on stocks that have done well and calls on stocks that have done poorly, firm proprietary traders exhibit the opposite behavior. Finally, in contrast to the equity options market, we do not find any evidence of informed trading in the index options market.
Book Synopsis Option Volume and Stock Prices by : David Easley
Download or read book Option Volume and Stock Prices written by David Easley and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the informational role of transactions volume in options markets. We develop an asymmetric information model in which informed traders may trade in option or equity markets. We show conditions under which informed traders trade options, and we investigate the implications of this for the linkage between markets. Our model predicts an important informational role for the volume of particular types of option trades. We empirically test our model's hypotheses with intra-day option data. Our main empirical result is that negative and positive option volumes contain information about future stock prices.
Book Synopsis The Information Content of Option Ratios by : Benjamin M. Blau
Download or read book The Information Content of Option Ratios written by Benjamin M. Blau and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A broad stream of research shows that information flows into underlying stock prices through the options market. For instance, prior research shows that both the Put-Call Ratio (P/C) and the Option-to-Stock Volume Ratio (O/S) predict negative future stock returns. In this paper, we compare the level of information contained in these two commonly used option volume ratios. Our comparison of the return predictability contained in these ratios yields some new results. First, we find that P/C ratios contain more predictability about future stock returns at the daily level than O/S ratios. Second, in contrast to our first set of results, O/S ratios contain more predictability about future returns at the weekly and monthly levels than P/C ratios. In fact, our tests show that while P/C ratios contain predictability about future daily returns and, to some extent, future weekly returns, the return predictability in P/C ratios is fleeting. O/S ratios, on the other hand, significantly predict negative returns at both the weekly and monthly levels, respectively.
Book Synopsis Options Trading Strategies by : Stock Market Guru
Download or read book Options Trading Strategies written by Stock Market Guru and published by Stock Market Guru. This book was released on with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Options Trading Strategies Options are great for novice and experienced investors, great for all investors who wish to expand their portfolios and make money in stock market.Learn profitable and powerful options trading strategies which will lower your risk and increase your profits in today's market. This book contains the following topics that will guide you through the path of Options Trading Strategy. Index Chapter 1 Introduction to Options Options defined The Importance of Learning Options The Difficult Side of Options Chapter 2a: Advantages of Options Trading Hedging and Speculation The Good and the Bad Sides of Options Trading Chapter 2b: Nature and Characteristics of Options Options Trading Parties What is Call Option? What is Put Option? The Variants of Option Option Trade Transacting versus Closing Out Option Pricing and How It is Done Chapter 3: Important Options Terms to Remember Strike Price Listed Option Premium Conversion Intrinsic Value Underlying Asset Chapter 4: Should I Buy Futures or Should I Buy Options? Buying Futures, Buying Options Buying Options: Short Term and Long Term Puts and Call – Buy Them but Don’t Sell Them Buying Puts How to Make Money when the Market is Falling Buying Puts for Surefire Gains Buying Calls Buying Calls to Profit From an Up Trend How to Profit when Buying Calls from a Bottoming Out Market Buying Futures Chapter 5: How to Trade F&Os in Several Market Conditions What It Means When You Buy in Wild Swings Buying When Risk Aversion is High Playing the Bull Market How to Play in the Bear Market Direction less Markets Playing Range Bound Markets Playing Intra day Moves Being a Compulsive Trader Trading a Falling Market Caused by Crazy Valuations Trading a Falling Market Caused by Negative News Trading a Rising Market Caused by Increasing Interest Selling Puts Amidst High Tendency of Risk Aversion Trading Accumulation and Distribution Chapter 6: Understanding the Golden Rules of F&O Trading Start by Having a Plan Each Single Stock is Not a Trade Don’t Buy a Mercedes if What You Can Afford is a Motorcycle! Set Your Trades to a Maximum Limit of Three at Any Single Time Don’t Trade Stocks That Have No Heavy Liquidity Trade According to the Trend The Value of Timing Trade the Body and not the Head of the Price Move Always Keep Track Of Your Emotions Learn the Value of Being Consistent and Disciplined Reality as Opposed to One’s Belief A Trade is Born out of Positive Expectation that is Backed by a Positive Trend Bread and Butter Money must be for Bread and Butter Alone Be Contrarian in Your Thinking and Not When You Go Trading Be Patient When You Find a Trade But Not When You Cut Losses Emotions versus F&O Trading The Value of Moderation in F&O Trading Having a Profit Then Going Out With a Loss When You Average a Loss in a Futures Position, You Are Simply Burning Money! Avoid Watching TV! The Unique Personality of Stock Futures and Options Getting Different Results Mean Doing Things Differently Trading Options Time Frame Buy Options in Low Cost/Premium Buy Options When a Stock, a Sector or the Market is Trending Very Strongly The Reality after Waking up from a Dream Open Interest – How Real Can It Be Understanding if the Option Price is Right So What is the Real Deal on Options Understanding How Options Really Work Calls and Puts Long and Short European and American Options Some Terminology Futures or Options?
Book Synopsis Essays on Single-Stock Futures and Options Markets by : Cuyler Lawrence Strong
Download or read book Essays on Single-Stock Futures and Options Markets written by Cuyler Lawrence Strong and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These two essays demonstrate the important role that derivative markets play in assimilating information into financial markets. In the first essay I use the 2008 short-selling ban to examine the impact of single-stock futures (SSFs) trading on options market quality. I show that there is a substitution effect between options trading and SSFs trading during the ban period. In addition, my results show that SSFs trading had a significant effect in narrowing the bid-ask spreads of options contracts. Moreover, compared to stocks without SSFs, stocks with SSFs were less likely to violate put-call parity during the ban period. My results suggest that SSFs trading helps mitigate the negative effect of the short-selling ban on options market quality documented in the literature.In the second essay I look at information flows through large option trades. The motivation comes from CNBC's "Halftime Report" which regularly covers unusual option activity, i.e., those abnormally large trades, and recommend investors to follow the "smart money". I investigate the impact of the CNBC coverage on underlying stock prices and whether investors can indeed profit by following the "smart money". I document an immediate spike in trading volume and abnormal returns at the time of the CNBC coverage, and evidence that the unusual option trades are informative of stock prices around the coverage. However, I also document a significant reversal in underlying stock prices following the CNBC coverage. Using the same criteria advocated by the CNBC commentators, I identify unusual option activities for a large sample of stocks without CNBC coverage. I confirm that the unusual option trades significantly predict underlying stock returns, but find no evidence of reversal in underlying stock prices. My findings suggest that the CNBC coverage of unusual option activity has a destabilizing effect on underlying stock prices and investors cannot profit by simply following the CNBC reporting on the "smart money".
Book Synopsis The Options Trading Body of Knowledge by : Michael C. Thomsett
Download or read book The Options Trading Body of Knowledge written by Michael C. Thomsett and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Complete Idiot's Guide to Options and Futures by : Scott Barrie
Download or read book The Complete Idiot's Guide to Options and Futures written by Scott Barrie and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2002 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides an overview of futures trading with information on such topics as options, price analysis, futures markets, single stock futures, and managed futures.
Book Synopsis Volatility Information Trading in the Option Market by : Sophie Xiaoyan Ni
Download or read book Volatility Information Trading in the Option Market written by Sophie Xiaoyan Ni and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates informed trading on stock volatility in the option market. Using a unique data set from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, we construct non-market maker net demand for stock volatility from the trading volume of individual equity options. We find that this volatility demand is informative about the future realized volatility of underlying stocks which suggests the presence of volatility information traders in the option market. We also examine asset pricing implications of volatility information trading by measuring Kyle's lambda: The impact on option prices for each unit increase in volatility demand. The price impact is positive which is consistent with the existence of informational asymmetry about stock volatility. More importantly, we link the time variation in the price impact to the time variation in the degree of informational asymmetry. In particular, the price impact increases by over 50 percent as informational asymmetry about stock volatility intensifies in the days leading up to earnings announcements and diminishes to its normal level soon after the volatility uncertainty is resolved.
Book Synopsis An Empirical Examination of Informed Trading in the Option Market by : Thi Thanh Van Le
Download or read book An Empirical Examination of Informed Trading in the Option Market written by Thi Thanh Van Le and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite a growing research interest in option trading and its impact on the pricing of the underlying asset, the role of options as a vehicle for informed trading remains an important economic question which has not yet been fully explored. In fact, even though academics have often argued that informed traders may prefer to trade in the option market rather than the equity market1, the question of whether (and to what extent) such a proposition would hold in practice has not been systematically addressed in the literature. This overarching research problem forms the foundation of this doctoral research project, leading to two important research questions. First, if investors do in fact use options to trade on information about underlying stock prices in practice, what implications does this have for the option (stock) pricing and forecasting? Second, what are the key factors driving traders' decisions to trade on new information in one market over another? These two issues correspond to the two gaps found in the extant literature on option trading, and also in the strand of empirical studies focusing on the role of options as a mechanism for trading on information about the underlying asset. To explore these research questions, three interrelated projects have been undertaken, each with a unique contribution to informing the research topic. These closely related investigations jointly provide consolidated answers to the two research questions raised previously. In response to the first research question, we pursue two strands of empirical investigation to examine the presence of informed trading in the option market. Firstly, we investigate the extent to which the information content extracted from options trading can be used to enhance predictions of the future volatility realised by underlying stocks. Secondly, we examine the price impact of information trading activities within the option market, focusing especially on the way in which the level of trading activities can explain and predict the future dynamics of the option implied volatility smile. Both of these strands yield evidence in support of information trading activities existing in the option market. Regarding the second research question, our collective evidence indicates that the allocation of informed traders between option and stock markets depends on the trade-off of transaction costs and trading opportunities existing in two related markets. This finding has consistently been corroborated by separate evidence emerging from our independent investigations. We found that the degree of information trading in the option market varies across different stocks, corresponding to variations in the level of individual stock liquidity. It has also been found that the degree of information asymmetry of option trades changed in response to changes in trading costs driven by regulatory changes observed during the 2008 short-sale ban. This research makes a valuable contribution to the field of option research. From the theoretical perspective, it addresses significant gaps in the existing literature and extends our understanding of informed trading activities in the option market. In particular, it contributes to the body of knowledge on the economic value of derivatives by investigating the critical role they have played in the process of incorporating new information into the market. From the practical perspective, it proposes a simple-yet-effective technique which employs trading volume to improve forecasts of the underlying stock volatility and of the option implied volatility (price) respectively. Since volatility plays such a central role in the practice of derivatives trading, risk analysis and portfolio management, better forecasts of these quantities are clearly important and highly regarded by practitioners. 1 Mainly due to higher financial leverages, reduced transactions costs and wider trading opportunities (eg speculation on volatility) (Black, 1975).
Book Synopsis Options Trading for Beginners & Dummies by : Giovanni Rigters
Download or read book Options Trading for Beginners & Dummies written by Giovanni Rigters and published by Giovanni Rigters. This book was released on with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Options trading has become an appealing option for many investors today, particularly as trading volume continues to rise and investors have decided to try new types of investments. If you want to make the most of this type of investment and are interested in trying options in lieu of or in addition to other types of investments, you’ll benefit from gaining a full understanding of options and how they work.
Book Synopsis Advanced Options Trading by : Robert T. Daigler
Download or read book Advanced Options Trading written by Robert T. Daigler and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 1994 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book thoroughly explains the options markets. Moreover, the work contains several unique features, including computer codes to calculate changes in options properties and a historic evaluation of options strategies and pricing theories. As a result, traders learn what works and what doesn't wor
Book Synopsis The nature of informed option trading: Evidence from the takeover market by : Marco Klapper
Download or read book The nature of informed option trading: Evidence from the takeover market written by Marco Klapper and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2014-02-01 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the kind of information ‘informed’ traders have prior to a takeover announcement using options of target firms and elaborates on the cross-sectional relationship between options and stocks around takeover announcements. Financial markets are driven by information and by individuals that generate, process, and disclose this information to the market. Naturally, there have to be individuals who possess more information about a firm or a future event than other market participants. Mergers and acquisitions are particularly interesting events in this regard because they can have significant implications for the firms and stakeholders involved, as well as for the competitive dynamics in the respective market. Because of the large potential price impact of such transactions, traders with private information about a prospective takeover are expected to trade on this information to make a profit. But who are these ‘informed traders’ and what kind of information do they possess? This study tries to give a respond to this question.
Book Synopsis Understanding Options by : Michael Sincere
Download or read book Understanding Options written by Michael Sincere and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2006-10-13 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Illustrates profit and loss results for simple options and option spreads Explains the Greeks and their importance Outlines how options offer four ways to approach the market Includes a step-by-step walk-through of placing an order
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Quantitative Asset Management by : Bernd Scherer
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Quantitative Asset Management written by Bernd Scherer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the current state of the art in quantitative investment management across seven key areas. Chapters by academics and practitioners working in leading investment management organizations bring together major theoretical and practical aspects of the field.
Download or read book Options Markets written by John C. Cox and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1985 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes the first published detailed description of option exchange operations, the first published treatment using only elementary mathematics and the first step-by-step procedure for implementing the Black-Scholes formula in actual trading.
