The Fat Tail

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The Fat Tail

Author : Ian Bremmer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780199752881
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (528 download)

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Book Synopsis The Fat Tail by : Ian Bremmer

Download or read book The Fat Tail written by Ian Bremmer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-05-13 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist

Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781544508054
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by . This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions

Author : Svetlozar T. Rachev
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0471758906
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (717 download)

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Book Synopsis Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions by : Svetlozar T. Rachev

Download or read book Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions written by Svetlozar T. Rachev and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-09-15 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While mainstream financial theories and applications assume that asset returns are normally distributed, overwhelming empirical evidence shows otherwise. Yet many professionals don’t appreciate the highly statistical models that take this empirical evidence into consideration. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions examines this dilemma and offers readers a less technical look at how portfolio selection, risk management, and option pricing modeling should and can be undertaken when the assumption of a non-normal distribution for asset returns is violated. Topics covered in this comprehensive book include an extensive discussion of probability distributions, estimating probability distributions, portfolio selection, alternative risk measures, and much more. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions provides a bridge between the highly technical theory of statistical distributional analysis, stochastic processes, and econometrics of financial returns and real-world risk management and investments.

Fat-Tailed Scorpion

Author : Julie Murray
Publisher : ABDO
ISBN 13 : 1098222016
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (982 download)

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Book Synopsis Fat-Tailed Scorpion by : Julie Murray

Download or read book Fat-Tailed Scorpion written by Julie Murray and published by ABDO. This book was released on 2020-08-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fat-tailed scorpions are one of the most dangerous scorpion species in the world. This title introduces readers to the fat-tailed scorpion and why and how it uses its powerful venom. This title is at a Level 1 and is written specifically for beginning readers. Aligned to Common Core standards & correlated to state standards. Dash! is an imprint of Abdo Zoom, a division of ABDO.

Leopard and Fat-Tailed Geckos

Author : R. D. Bartlett
Publisher : B.E.S. Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9780764140952
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (49 download)

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Book Synopsis Leopard and Fat-Tailed Geckos by : R. D. Bartlett

Download or read book Leopard and Fat-Tailed Geckos written by R. D. Bartlett and published by B.E.S. Publishing. This book was released on 2009 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: (back cover) Reptile and Amphibian Keeper's Guides Keeping and caring for reptiles and amphibians is a fascinating and rewarding experience Books in this series provide basic information on reptiles and amphibians plus expert advice on their care. You'll learn how to select good specimens, determine sex, provide proper caging and feeding, and protect your animal against diseases and parasites. You'll also find detailed instruction on breeding your reptile or amphibian. Filled with full-color photos Glossary and Index Titles Available in This Series: Anoles - Aquatic Turtles - Ball Pythons - Bearded Dragons - Box Turtles - Corn Snakes - Crested Geckos and Relatives - Day Geckos - Green Iguanas - Horned Frog Family and African Bullfrogs - Jackson's and Veiled Chameleons - Leopard and Fat-tailed Geckos - Milksnakes and Tricolored Kingsnakes - Poison Dart Frogs - Rainbow Boas and Neotropical Tree Boas - Red-eyed Treefrogs and Leaf Frogs - Red-tailed Boas and Relatives - Rosy, Rubber, and Sand Boas - Spiny-tailed Agamids - White's and White-Lipped Tree Frogs

The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails

Author : Jayakrishnan Nair
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1009062964
Total Pages : 266 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails by : Jayakrishnan Nair

Download or read book The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails written by Jayakrishnan Nair and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-06-09 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.

Extreme Events

Author : Malcolm Kemp
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119962870
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Extreme Events by : Malcolm Kemp

Download or read book Extreme Events written by Malcolm Kemp and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-10-04 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Taking due account of extreme events when constructing portfolios of assets or liabilities is a key discipline for market professionals. Extreme events are a fact of life in how markets operate. In Extreme Events: Robust Portfolio Construction in the Presence of Fat Tails, leading expert Malcolm Kemp shows readers how to analyse market data to uncover fat-tailed behaviour, how to incorporate expert judgement in the handling of such information, and how to refine portfolio construction methodologies to make portfolios less vulnerable to extreme events or to benefit more from them. This is the only text that combines a comprehensive treatment of modern risk budgeting and portfolio construction techniques with the specific refinements needed for them to handle extreme events. It explains in a logical sequence what constitutes fat-tailed behaviour and why it arises, how we can analyse such behaviour, at aggregate, sector or instrument level, and how we can then take advantage of this analysis. Along the way, it provides a rigorous, comprehensive and clear development of traditional portfolio construction methodologies applicable if fat-tails are absent. It then explains how to refine these methodologies to accommodate real world behaviour. Throughout, the book highlights the importance of expert opinion, showing that even the most data-centric portfolio construction approaches ultimately depend on practitioner assumptions about how the world might behave. The book includes: Key concepts and methods involved in analysing extreme events A comprehensive treatment of mean-variance investing, Bayesian methods, market consistent approaches, risk budgeting, and their application to manager and instrument selection A systematic development of the refinements needed to traditional portfolio construction methodologies to cater for fat-tailed behaviour Latest developments in stress testing and back testing methodologies A strong focus on the practical implementation challenges that can arise at each step in the process and on how to overcome these challenges “Understanding how to model and analyse the risk of extreme events is a crucial part of the risk management process. This book provides a set of techniques that allow practitioners to do this comprehensively.” Paul Sweeting, Professor of Actuarial Science, University of Kent “How can the likeliness of crises affect the construction of portfolios? This question is highly topical in times where we still have to digest the last financial collapse. Malcolm Kemp gives the answer. His book is highly recommended to experts as well as to students in the financial field.” Christoph Krischanitz, President Actuarial Association of Austria, Chairman WG “Market Consistency” of Groupe Consultatif

Fat-tailed Distributions

Author : Roger M. Cooke
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781119054207
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (542 download)

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Book Synopsis Fat-tailed Distributions by : Roger M. Cooke

Download or read book Fat-tailed Distributions written by Roger M. Cooke and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Long Tail

Author : Chris Anderson
Publisher : Hachette Books
ISBN 13 : 1401384633
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis The Long Tail by : Chris Anderson

Download or read book The Long Tail written by Chris Anderson and published by Hachette Books. This book was released on 2006-07-11 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What happens when the bottlenecks that stand between supply and demand in our culture go away and everything becomes available to everyone? "The Long Tail" is a powerful new force in our economy: the rise of the niche. As the cost of reaching consumers drops dramatically, our markets are shifting from a one-size-fits-all model of mass appeal to one of unlimited variety for unique tastes. From supermarket shelves to advertising agencies, the ability to offer vast choice is changing everything, and causing us to rethink where our markets lie and how to get to them. Unlimited selection is revealing truths about what consumers want and how they want to get it, from DVDs at Netflix to songs on iTunes to advertising on Google. However, this is not just a virtue of online marketplaces; it is an example of an entirely new economic model for business, one that is just beginning to show its power. After a century of obsessing over the few products at the head of the demand curve, the new economics of distribution allow us to turn our focus to the many more products in the tail, which collectively can create a new market as big as the one we already know. The Long Tail is really about the economics of abundance. New efficiencies in distribution, manufacturing, and marketing are essentially resetting the definition of what's commercially viable across the board. If the 20th century was about hits, the 21st will be equally about niches.

Life - As a Matter of Fat

Author : Ole G. Mouritsen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540270760
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (42 download)

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Book Synopsis Life - As a Matter of Fat by : Ole G. Mouritsen

Download or read book Life - As a Matter of Fat written by Ole G. Mouritsen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-03-30 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents a multi-disciplinary perspective on the physics of life and the particular role played by lipids and the lipid-bilayer component of cell membranes. Emphasizes the physical properties of lipid membranes seen as soft and molecularly structured interfaces. By combining and synthesizing insights obtained from a variety of recent studies, an attempt is made to clarify what membrane structure is and how it can be quantitatively described. Shows how biological function mediated by membranes is controlled by lipid membrane structure and organization on length scales ranging from the size of the individual molecule, across molecular assemblies of proteins and lipid domains in the range of nanometers, to the size of whole cells. Applications of lipids in nano-technology and biomedicine are also described.

Climate Shock

Author : Gernot Wagner
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400880769
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Shock by : Gernot Wagner

Download or read book Climate Shock written by Gernot Wagner and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How knowing the extreme risks of climate change can help us prepare for an uncertain future If you had a 10 percent chance of having a fatal car accident, you'd take necessary precautions. If your finances had a 10 percent chance of suffering a severe loss, you'd reevaluate your assets. So if we know the world is warming and there's a 10 percent chance this might eventually lead to a catastrophe beyond anything we could imagine, why aren't we doing more about climate change right now? We insure our lives against an uncertain future—why not our planet? In Climate Shock, Gernot Wagner and Martin Weitzman explore in lively, clear terms the likely repercussions of a hotter planet, drawing on and expanding from work previously unavailable to general audiences. They show that the longer we wait to act, the more likely an extreme event will happen. A city might go underwater. A rogue nation might shoot particles into the Earth's atmosphere, geoengineering cooler temperatures. Zeroing in on the unknown extreme risks that may yet dwarf all else, the authors look at how economic forces that make sensible climate policies difficult to enact, make radical would-be fixes like geoengineering all the more probable. What we know about climate change is alarming enough. What we don't know about the extreme risks could be far more dangerous. Wagner and Weitzman help readers understand that we need to think about climate change in the same way that we think about insurance—as a risk management problem, only here on a global scale. With a new preface addressing recent developments Wagner and Weitzman demonstrate that climate change can and should be dealt with—and what could happen if we don't do so—tackling the defining environmental and public policy issue of our time.

Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot and Other Observations

Author : Al Franken
Publisher : Random House Digital, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 0440508649
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (45 download)

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Book Synopsis Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot and Other Observations by : Al Franken

Download or read book Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot and Other Observations written by Al Franken and published by Random House Digital, Inc.. This book was released on 1999 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Move over P.J. O'Rourke! From Al Franken, America's premier liberal satirist, comes a hilarious homage to the wonderful, awful, and always absurd American political process that skewers a whole new crop of presidential hopefuls--just in time for the 1996 presidential election. "(Franken is) responsible in part for some of the most brilliant political satire of our time".--John Podhoretz, New York Post.

Tail Risk Killers: How Math, Indeterminacy, and Hubris Distort Markets

Author : Jeffrey McGinn
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 0071784918
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (717 download)

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Book Synopsis Tail Risk Killers: How Math, Indeterminacy, and Hubris Distort Markets by : Jeffrey McGinn

Download or read book Tail Risk Killers: How Math, Indeterminacy, and Hubris Distort Markets written by Jeffrey McGinn and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reshape your investing strategy for an increasingly uncertain world “An engrossing, fast-paced, terrific read for anyone interested in the financial imbalances due to too much reliance on math and too little respect for indeterminacy.” —Tyler Durden, ZeroHedge.com The world does not unfold according to a fixed set of rules. It is a dynamical system whose evolution looks like a bell curve with fat “tails.” The same is true of financial markets. However, every day we rely on the certainty and precision of mathematical strategies that assume the contrary to control and grow wealth in markets. Tail Risk Killers shows you how the rigidity of model-based thinking has led to the fragility of today’s global financial marketplace, and it explains how to use adaptive trading strategies to mitigate risk in impending market conditions. Risk management veteran Jeff McGinn pokes holes in prevalent assumptions about how financial markets act that tend to underestimate the likelihood of occurrence of extreme events. Through clear, conversational writing, real-world anecdotes, and easy-tofollow formulas, he provides a glimpse into the way tomorrow’s successful traders are viewing financial markets—with an eye for probability distributions. While illustrating how to protect your assets from tail risk, he shows you how to: Implement the six axioms for risk management Prepare for the unintended consequences of central banks suppressing tail risk Identify and avoid the dark risks hidden in today’s derivative-laden financial system Anticipate the fate of credit default swaps that may not face extinction McGinn argues that the intervention of central banks has robbed global markets of their opportunities to adapt, but this highly relevant book shows you that it is not too late to adapt your portfolio to survive the extreme events that happen more often than popular financial models suggest. Tail Risk Killers helps you discover useful information and processes beyond the focus of industry standards, helps you connect the dots of evolving trading strategies and time your next trade for maximum profitability.

Fat Cat - a Small Tail

Author : K. A. Salter
Publisher : CreateSpace
ISBN 13 : 9781515053286
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (532 download)

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Book Synopsis Fat Cat - a Small Tail by : K. A. Salter

Download or read book Fat Cat - a Small Tail written by K. A. Salter and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2015-07-13 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A homeless cat arrives in the neighborhood and is shunned by all but a housewife and her two young children. The father of the family is not a cat lover and both his wife and children set about trying to change his mind until the cat does it on his own. This story highlights the importance of not judging a book by its cover.

The Book of St John

Author : Fergus Henderson
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 1473564409
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (735 download)

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Book Synopsis The Book of St John by : Fergus Henderson

Download or read book The Book of St John written by Fergus Henderson and published by Random House. This book was released on 2019-10-03 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'The Book of St John is too witty to be a manifesto, but it is a sturdy invocation of the need for comfort, generosity and ritual at the table. And it is a gurglingly delightful compendium of - quite simply - delicious ideas and stories' Nigella Lawson 'An unutterable joy from the team behind one of the most influential and important restaurants in Britain ... This is much more than a book of recipes, though (glorious as they are). It’s also about the importance of the table, of feasting, of friendship, of the white cloth napkin on your knee. And it sings of simple but wonderful pleasures: a bacon sandwich and a glass of cider, a doughnut and a glass of champagne.’ Diana Henry, The Telegraph 'The Book of St. JOHN, part food gospel, part memoir, part recipe book.' Observer Food Monthly Join the inimitable Fergus Henderson and Trevor Gulliver as they welcome you into their world-famous restaurant, inviting you to celebrate 25 years of unforgettable, innovative food. Established in 1994, St. JOHN has become renowned for its simplicity, its respect for quality ingredients and for being a pioneer in zero waste cooking – they strive to use every part of an ingredient, from leftover stale bread for puddings, bones for broths and stocks, to typically unused parts of the animal (such as the tongue) being made the hero of a dish. Recipes include: Braised rabbit, mustard and bacon Ox tongue, carrots and caper sauce Duck fat toast Smoked cod’s roe, egg and potato cake Confit suckling pig shoulder and dandelion The Smithfield pickled cucumbers St. JOHN chutney Butterbean, rosemary and garlic wuzz Honey and bay rice pudding Featuring all the best-loved seminal recipes as well as comprehensive menus and wine recommendations, Fergus and Trevor will take a look back at the ethos and working practices of a food dynasty that has inspired a generation of chefs and home cooks.

A Tiger Tail

Author : Mike Boldt
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1481448862
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (814 download)

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Book Synopsis A Tiger Tail by : Mike Boldt

Download or read book A Tiger Tail written by Mike Boldt and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2016-07-05 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the creative mind of rising star Mike Boldt comes a hilarious and original tale about overcoming back-to-school jitters, making new friends, and taking things in stride. Anya wakes up to discover that she has grown a tiger tail. Yes, a striped tiger tail. It also happens to be the first day of school. What will the other kids think? Are girls with tiger tails even allowed to go to school?! Anya is about to find out.

The New Great Depression

Author : James Rickards
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0593330277
Total Pages : 210 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (933 download)

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Book Synopsis The New Great Depression by : James Rickards

Download or read book The New Great Depression written by James Rickards and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2021-01-12 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Wall Street Journal and National Bestseller! The man who predicted the worst economic crisis in US history shows you how to survive it. The current crisis is not like 2008 or even 1929. The New Depression that has emerged from the COVID pandemic is the worst economic crisis in U.S. history. Most fired employees will remain redundant. Bankruptcies will be common, and banks will buckle under the weight of bad debts. Deflation, debt, and demography will wreck any chance of recovery, and social disorder will follow closely on the heels of market chaos. The happy talk from Wall Street and the White House is an illusion. The worst is yet to come. But for knowledgeable investors, all hope is not lost. In The New Great Depression, James Rickards, New York Times bestselling author of Aftermath and The New Case for Gold, pulls back the curtain to reveal the true risks to our financial system and what savvy investors can do to survive -- even prosper -- during a time of unrivaled turbulence. Drawing on historical case studies, monetary theory, and behind-the-scenes access to the halls of power, Rickards shines a clarifying light on the events taking place, so investors understand what's really happening and what they can do about it. A must-read for any fans of Rickards and for investors everywhere who want to understand how to preserve their wealth during the worst economic crisis in US history.