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The Effect Of Declining House Prices On Household Savings A Theoretical And Empirical Study Of The Dutch Case
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Book Synopsis The Effect of Declining House Prices on Household Savings. A Theoretical and Empirical Study of the Dutch Case by : Eduard Suari Andreu
Download or read book The Effect of Declining House Prices on Household Savings. A Theoretical and Empirical Study of the Dutch Case written by Eduard Suari Andreu and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper I analyse the effect of a decrease in house prices on the savings of households. The life cycle model predicts that homeowners compensate an unexpected decrease in home equity by increasing their savings, and that the effect becomes stronger as the age of the household increases. To test these hypotheses I use panel data from the Dutch Central Bank Household Survey (DHS) for the period between 2003 and 2013. The results of the econometric analysis show a negative and significant effect on the savings of homeowners of the yearly price change in the second hand housing market. The effect becomes stronger with age and it appears to be asymmetric between positive and negative changes in house prices.However, homeowners do not appear to react neither to self-reported measures of house price changes nor to their own one-year expectations about future house prices. This might be because, on the one hand, households are not consistent in the way they report changes in the price of the own house, and, on the other hand, longer term expectations may be more important than one-year expectations.
Book Synopsis Household Saving and Real House Prices by : Neale Kennedy
Download or read book Household Saving and Real House Prices written by Neale Kennedy and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This cross-country study provides empirical evidence on the influence of house prices on the aggregate consumption and saving behaviour of households. Housing wealth constitutes a significant portion of total wealth for households, suggesting that their expenditure patterns are likely to reflect housing market developments. The paper first describes developments in house prices in 15 industrialised countries over the period 1970-72 and then empirically tests the relationship between house prices, household debt and saving. The main findings are that while house price movements have played a significant role in the 1980s in determining households' saving behaviour, the magnitude and direction of their impact has varied considerably across countries. A negative effect is identified in Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the Untied States, and a positive one in the remaining countries. The reasons for the differing responses are to be found in variations in the characteristics of national housing market, in the redistribution of wealth within the household sector and in changes in financial markets.
Book Synopsis House Prices, Second Mortgages and Household Savings by : Jan Rouwendall
Download or read book House Prices, Second Mortgages and Household Savings written by Jan Rouwendall and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on the Household-level Effects of House Price Growth by : Claudia Ayanna Sitgraves
Download or read book Essays on the Household-level Effects of House Price Growth written by Claudia Ayanna Sitgraves and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation explores the effects of fluctuations in housing values on household saving and investment decisions. Chapter 1 examines the relationship between changes in housing values and household saving decisions. Fluctuations in housing values may affect household saving and consumption by increasing households' perceived wealth, or by relaxing borrowing constraints. Moreover, the increased liquidity of home equity during the recent housing boom may have led household behavior to respond more than in past years to changes in housing wealth. This chapter is the first analysis to provide evidence from household-level microdata suggesting that the housing wealth effect may have increased in line with increased access to housing-collateralized debt. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation for the years 1984 - 2003, I estimate an average elasticity of household active saving with respect to MSA-level house prices of -0.222, which corresponds to a 1 cent decrease in annual active saving when housing wealth increases by 1 dollar. When I estimate housing wealth effects separately between 1984 and 1990, and between 1996 and 2003, I find smaller effects during the earlier period, but large and significant effects during the later period. During the later period, I estimate an average elasticity of household active saving with respect to MSA-level house prices of -1.044, which corresponds to a 3 cent decrease in annual active saving when housing wealth increases by 1 dollar. Further evidence comparing the magnitude of the wealth effect between different subpopulations -- older homeowners versus younger homeowners, and recent homebuyers versus those with longer tenure -- suggests that a relaxation of liquidity constraints, rather than changes in the composition of the homeowner population, is a central factor contributing to the increase in the housing wealth effect. Chapter 2 explores the connection between growth in housing values, uncertainty over future housing values, and property owners' investments in housing. Residential housing is a significant share of most American households' asset holdings. As such, the decision to build, to buy, or to make significant improvements to a home is driven not only by consumption considerations, but is also an investment decision. By modeling property owners' housing investment decisions using a framework of optimal capital investment where investments are irreversible and there is uncertainty in future asset values, this analysis theoretically predicts and empirically estimates the extent to which property owners respond to changes in the profitability of housing investment by making investments in their stock of housing. Using a unique dataset of residential sales, geographic information, and the universe of building permits issued in Los Angeles between 1999 and 2008, and focusing on nonresident landlords and "improver-movers"--Owner-occupiers who make improvements to their properties and subsequently sell the property, I find that when housing values increase, property owners are more likely to make capital investments, and that the value and square footage of these investments is larger. When house price volatility is high, property owners are less likely to make investments. However, conditional on the decision to invest, the value and square footage of investments is larger. This result is shown to be a consequence of property owners' optimally delaying capital investment when uncertainty over future prices is high. Chapter 3 documents the extent to which residential real estate development is cyclical - exhibiting periods of rapid expansion followed by periods of rapid contraction - using New York City as a case study. This chapter provides an overview of residential development activity in New York City during the years 2000 - 2008. In this analysis, I describe the effects of this real estate "boom" on the housing market in New York City during these years, and characterize the long-term effects of the "boom" and subsequent "bust" in residential development on the composition of the City's housing stock. Economic theories of cyclicality in real estate markets, outlined in this chapter, show that uncertainty over the exact timing of price declines coupled with a long development lag can lead to buildings being completed and new units entering the market even as prices decline. Although the elasticity of housing supply is lower in New York City than in other areas, building activity tends to follow a boom-and-bust pattern similar to other areas. Neighborhoods with higher levels of amenities experienced more growth in residential housing supply, and public involvement in development activity (both to facilitate and to restrict development) became less important for builders as the boom progressed. As building activity slows, City officials and developers are taking steps to ensure that stalled construction sites, rather than becoming eyesores and safety hazards, are preserved for future use.
Book Synopsis The Effect of House Prices on Home Owners Savings by : Askar Darmenov
Download or read book The Effect of House Prices on Home Owners Savings written by Askar Darmenov and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis investigates the correlation between house prices and home owners savings. The data from Panel Study of Income Dynamics is used to construct a sample of under age 65 home owning households for period of 1999-2005. Results of analysis suggests that on average increasing of house value has negative affect on households savings with magnitude of 4 cents per each dollar. The recent housing market crisis shows that housing wealth is not an absolutely reliable source of financial wealth even though perceived as stable saving instrument. So, actual existence of established relationship might be a source of concern about households financial security. Households who save less in response to housing prices increase are more vulnerable to the crises on the housing market.
Book Synopsis Dissertation Abstracts International by :
Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstracts of dissertations available on microfilm or as xerographic reproductions.
Book Synopsis Modelling House Prices Before and After the Crisis: The Case of The Netherlands by : Vincent Wauters
Download or read book Modelling House Prices Before and After the Crisis: The Case of The Netherlands written by Vincent Wauters and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies by : Ms.Nan Geng
Download or read book Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies written by Ms.Nan Geng and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-18 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.
Book Synopsis Housing and the Financial Crisis by : Edward L. Glaeser
Download or read book Housing and the Financial Crisis written by Edward L. Glaeser and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-08-19 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional wisdom held that housing prices couldn’t fall. But the spectacular boom and bust of the housing market during the first decade of the twenty-first century and millions of foreclosed homeowners have made it clear that housing is no different from any other asset in its ability to climb and crash. Housing and the Financial Crisis looks at what happened to prices and construction both during and after the housing boom in different parts of the American housing market, accounting for why certain areas experienced less volatility than others. It then examines the causes of the boom and bust, including the availability of credit, the perceived risk reduction due to the securitization of mortgages, and the increase in lending from foreign sources. Finally, it examines a range of policies that might address some of the sources of recent instability.
Book Synopsis Gauging the Influence of House-Price Expectations on Marginal Propensity to Consume Heterogeneity by : Jorge Quintana
Download or read book Gauging the Influence of House-Price Expectations on Marginal Propensity to Consume Heterogeneity written by Jorge Quintana and published by Eliva Press. This book was released on 2023-12-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study identifies a new determinant of household marginal propensities to consume (MPC): house-price growth expectations. We exploit a detailed and representative data set of Dutch households that allows us to link housing and savings decisions with house-price growth expectations and monetary policy shocks. We document a positive empirical relationship between expected house-price growth and the propensity of households to move-both unconditionally and in response to monetary policy shocks. We explain this pattern using a structural life-cycle model of consumption and savings that features mortgage-financed owned- and rental-housing, and where households have subjective beliefs about future house prices. Due to the housing capital gains channel, households with higher expectations have a higher likelihood of moving. This in turn, leads to higher average and more heterogeneous MPCs, as housing is complementary to non-durable consumption. These results carry over to the rebate coefficients (RC) from government stimulus transfers. Low-expectation households tend to have low and insensitive RCs, while high-expectation households exhibit higher and more dispersed RCs, both per stimulus package and across stimulus sizes.
Book Synopsis The Decline in Household Saving and the Wealth Effect by :
Download or read book The Decline in Household Saving and the Wealth Effect written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Household Savings and Mortgage Decisions by : Narcissa Balta
Download or read book Household Savings and Mortgage Decisions written by Narcissa Balta and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper analyses the interactions between household wealth, mortgage decisions and savings in a single empirical framework and identifies an important role for a "down-payment channel" in the euro area. Contrary to the traditional housing wealth channel, the "down-payment channel" posits a positive relation between household savings and house prices: a rise in house prices forces credit-constrained households who wish to acquire a house to accumulate more savings in order to cover a higher down-payment (i.e. the share of the housing acquisition value that is not covered by a mortgage). The overall effect of a rise in house prices on private consumption can be seen as the result of two offsetting forces: a rise in house prices tends to push up consumption via the traditional housing wealth channel but it also tends to depress the consumption of credit-constrained households who wish to acquire a house via the down-payment channel. Estimates based on a structural VEC model for the euro area suggest that the down-payment effect tends to dominate in the medium term, translating into an overall negative impact of higher house prices on consumption in the euro area."--Publication information page.
Book Synopsis Sociological Abstracts by : Leo P. Chall
Download or read book Sociological Abstracts written by Leo P. Chall and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 976 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CSA Sociological Abstracts abstracts and indexes the international literature in sociology and related disciplines in the social and behavioral sciences. The database provides abstracts of journal articles and citations to book reviews drawn from over 1,800+ serials publications, and also provides abstracts of books, book chapters, dissertations, and conference papers.
Book Synopsis Border Effects in House Prices by : Martin Micheli
Download or read book Border Effects in House Prices written by Martin Micheli and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Has the Effect of Housing Wealth on Household Consumption Been Overestimated? New Evidences on Magnitude and Allocation by : Linna Zhu
Download or read book Has the Effect of Housing Wealth on Household Consumption Been Overestimated? New Evidences on Magnitude and Allocation written by Linna Zhu and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effect of housing wealth on household consumption is puzzling as existing empirical results do not match with theoretical predictions. Existing theories - life cycle theory, permanent income hypothesis and user cost model - suggest that housing wealth impact should be small. However, most prior studies find that Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) out of housing wealth ranges between 0.04 to 0.09, indicating material impact of housing wealth on household consumption. Motivated by this discordance, this study uses the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to provide a step by step analysis to show how the housing wealth effect decreases as biases from unobserved variables are properly addressed. Once households' unobserved preferences towards consumption and their future expected income are controlled for, our estimated MPC drops significantly. We also directly control for home equity extraction to disentangle the pure wealth effect channel and the collateral channel. Our findings show that a one percent increase in perceived housing wealth is associated with 0.01-0.02 percent increase in real, non-housing consumption after directly controlling for the collateral channel. Our estimated magnitude of housing wealth effect is much smaller than previous findings. Additionally, we find heterogeneity in MPCs across consumption categories - consumptions that are necessary in daily lives such as food and transportation do not respond to changes in perceived housing wealth while households increase their spending on clothes and recreation as housing wealth increases. We also employ an IV approach to disentangle permanent and transitory housing wealth shocks. Our results indicate that it is the deviation between perceived house price appreciation rate and the real house price appreciation rate in fundamental values that drives this small magnitude of MPC out of housing wealth in the short run (in cloth and recreation) and this housing wealth effect will move towards to zero in the long run as the perception converges with the fundamental values.
Book Synopsis House Prices and Ultra-low Interest Rates by : Daniel Dieckelmann
Download or read book House Prices and Ultra-low Interest Rates written by Daniel Dieckelmann and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The acceleration of house price growth amidst falling interest rates to record-low levels across euro area countries between 2015 and 2021 has sparked renewed interest in the link between the two variables. Asset-pricing theory suggests that real house prices respond to changes in real interest rates in a non-linear fashion. This non-linearity should be especially pronounced at very low real interest rates. Most existing empirical studies estimate models with a constant semi-elasticity, thereby ruling out by design the potential non-linearities between house prices and interest rates. To address this issue, we estimate a panel model for the euro area countries with a constant interest rate elasticity (as opposed to a constant semi-elasticity), which is consistent with asset pricing theory. Our empirical results suggest that, in a low interest rate environment such as the period between 2015 and 2021, non-linearities in the house price response to interest rate changes are important: an increase of real interest rates from ultra-low levels could lead to downward pressure on real house prices three to eight times higher than the literature suggests.
Download or read book Journal of Economic Literature written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 1164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
