Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Download The Economics And Econometrics Of Seasonal Cycles And Business Cycles full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online The Economics And Econometrics Of Seasonal Cycles And Business Cycles ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Author : John Michael Wells
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (35 download)
Download or read book The Economics and Econometrics of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles written by John Michael Wells and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jeffrey A. Miron
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262133234
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (332 download)
Download or read book The Economics of Seasonal Cycles written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on economic rather than purely statistical issues, looking at which of the alternative statistical models of seasonality are plausible for economic variables, and asking why seasonal fluctuations in economic variables require special treatment relative to other kinds of fluctuations.
Author : Francis X. Diebold
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691219583
Total Pages : 438 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Author : Jan Jacobs
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461555914
Total Pages : 237 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (615 download)
Download or read book Econometric Business Cycle Research written by Jan Jacobs and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.
Author : Zheng Liu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (364 download)
Download or read book Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy written by Zheng Liu and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Regina Kaiser
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461301297
Total Pages : 198 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (613 download)
Download or read book Measuring Business Cycles in Economic Time Series written by Regina Kaiser and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book outlines and demonstrates problems with the use of the HP filter, and proposes an alternative strategy for inferring cyclical behavior from a time series featuring seasonal, trend, cyclical and noise components. The main innovation of the alternative strategy involves augmenting the series forecasts and back-casts obtained from an ARIMA model, and then applying the HP filter to the augmented series. Comparisons presented using artificial and actual data demonstrate the superiority of the alternative strategy.
Author : James H. Stock
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226774740
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (267 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Author : J. Joseph Beaulieu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles written by J. Joseph Beaulieu and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a recent paper Barsky and Miron (1989) examine the seasonal fluctuations in the U.S. economy. They show that the key stylized facts about the business cycle characterize the seasonal cycle as well, and they suggest that the interpretation of many of these stylized facts over the seasonal cycle is easier than interpretation over the business cycle. The reason is that the ultimate sources of seasonal cycles are more readily identifiable than those of business cycles. This paper uses the cross country variation in seasonal patterns to pin down the ultimate sources of seasonal variation more precisely than is possible from examination of U.S. data alone. We conclude that a Christmas shift in preferences and synergies across agents are the key determinants of the seasonal patterns around the world. The paper also establishes that, across developed countries, the key observations about aggregate variables that characterize the business cycle also characterize the seasonal cycle. Thus, the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle demonstrated by Barsky and Miron (1989) for the united states is a robust stylized fact.
Author : Haim Y. Bleikh
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1317010183
Total Pages : 149 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (17 download)
Download or read book Time Series Analysis and Adjustment written by Haim Y. Bleikh and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-02-24 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Time Series Analysis and Adjustment the authors explain how the last four decades have brought dramatic changes in the way researchers analyze economic and financial data on behalf of economic and financial institutions and provide statistics to whomsoever requires them. Such analysis has long involved what is known as econometrics, but time series analysis is a different approach driven more by data than economic theory and focused on modelling. An understanding of time series and the application and understanding of related time series adjustment procedures is essential in areas such as risk management, business cycle analysis, and forecasting. Dealing with economic data involves grappling with things like varying numbers of working and trading days in different months and movable national holidays. Special attention has to be given to such things. However, the main problem in time series analysis is randomness. In real-life, data patterns are usually unclear, and the challenge is to uncover hidden patterns in the data and then to generate accurate forecasts. The case studies in this book demonstrate that time series adjustment methods can be efficaciously applied and utilized, for both analysis and forecasting, but they must be used in the context of reasoned statistical and economic judgment. The authors believe this is the first published study to really deal with this issue of context.
Author : Robert B. Barsky
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data. This paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right. We document the quantitative importance of seasonal fluctuations, and we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in a set of standard macroeconomic variables. Our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables. The timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarter, a large decrease in the first quarter, and a mild decrease in the third quarter. The paper demonstrates that, with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles, the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle, in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle. That is, we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies, output movements across broadly defined sectors move together, the timing of production and sales coincide closely, labor productivity is procyclical, nominal money and real output are highly correlated, and prices vary less than quantities. There is a "seasonal business cycle" in the United States economy, and its characteristics mirror closely those of the conventional business cycle.
Author : William R. Bell
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 143984657X
Total Pages : 556 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)
Download or read book Economic Time Series written by William R. Bell and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-03-19 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time series modeling and seasonal adjustment, as is reflected both in the contents of the chapters and in their authorship, with contributors coming from academia and government statistical agencies. For easier perusal and absorption, the contents have been grouped into seven topical sections: Section I deals with periodic modeling of time series, introducing, applying, and comparing various seasonally periodic models Section II examines the estimation of time series components when models for series are misspecified in some sense, and the broader implications this has for seasonal adjustment and business cycle estimation Section III examines the quantification of error in X-11 seasonal adjustments, with comparisons to error in model-based seasonal adjustments Section IV discusses some practical problems that arise in seasonal adjustment: developing asymmetric trend-cycle filters, dealing with both temporal and contemporaneous benchmark constraints, detecting trading-day effects in monthly and quarterly time series, and using diagnostics in conjunction with model-based seasonal adjustment Section V explores outlier detection and the modeling of time series containing extreme values, developing new procedures and extending previous work Section VI examines some alternative models and inference procedures for analysis of seasonal economic time series Section VII deals with aspects of modeling, estimation, and forecasting for nonseasonal economic time series By presenting new methodological developments as well as pertinent empirical analyses and reviews of established methods, the book provides much that is stimulating and practically useful for the serious researcher and analyst of economic time series.
Author : Sumru G. Altug
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9812832785
Total Pages : 161 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (128 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Sumru G. Altug and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title provides an overview of the modern theory and empirics of business cycles. The book examines the notion of a business cycle and discusses alternative approaches to modelling. It also discusses what lies ahead for modern business cycle theory.
Author : Philip Hans Franses
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series written by Philip Hans Franses and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1996 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a self-contained account of periodic models for seasonally observed economic time series with stochastic trends. Two key concepts are periodic integration and periodic cointegration. Periodic integration implies that a seasonally varying differencing filter is required to remove a stochastic trend. Periodic cointegration amounts to allowing cointegration paort-term adjustment parameters to vary with the season. The emphasis is on useful econrameters and shometric models that explicitly describe seasonal variation and can reasonably be interpreted in terms of economic behaviour. The analysis considers econometric theory, Monte Carlo simulation, and forecasting, and it is illustrated with numerous empirical time series. A key feature of the proposed models is that changing seasonal fluctuations depend on the trend and business cycle fluctuations. In the case of such dependence, it is shown that seasonal adjustment leads to inappropriate results.
Author : Bernd Süssmuth
Publisher : Physica
ISBN 13 : 9783790827194
Total Pages : 165 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (271 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles in the Contemporary World written by Bernd Süssmuth and published by Physica. This book was released on 2011-05-06 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Fabio Canova
Publisher : Université de Montréal, Centre de recherche et développement en économique
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Changes in Seasonal Patterns written by Fabio Canova and published by Université de Montréal, Centre de recherche et développement en économique. This book was released on 1992 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226978923
Total Pages : 613 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author : Henry Ludwell Moore
Publisher : New York : The Macmillan Company
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 180 pages
Book Rating : 4.A/5 ( download)
Download or read book Economic Cycles written by Henry Ludwell Moore and published by New York : The Macmillan Company. This book was released on 1914 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
