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The Declining Volatility Of Us Employment
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Book Synopsis The Declining Volatility of U.S. Employment by : Maria Veronica Cacdac Warnock
Download or read book The Declining Volatility of U.S. Employment written by Maria Veronica Cacdac Warnock and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to add to the understanding of changes in the magnitude of business cycle fluctuations by examining disaggregated employment data. Specifically, we use a stochastic variance approach on monthly employment data for the 1946-1996 period to highlight two stylized facts of aggregate U.S. employment - greater volatility in recessions than expansions and reduced volatility since the early 1980s. These patterns are not, however, apparent in each sector of the economy. Asymmetric volatility is only evident in manufacturing and trade; other sectors, such as construction or the narrowly defined services sector, are just as likely to exhibit high volatility in expansions. A general reduction in volatility is evident only in goods-producing sectors; some industries in the broad service-producing sector have become more volatile over time. Our results highlight the close relationship between aggregate and manufacturing volatility, and suggest that to understand why the U.S. business cycle has become more muted, researchers should strive to understand the forces at work that are reducing volatility in the manufacturing sector.
Book Synopsis Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment by : Steven J. Davis
Download or read book Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment written by Steven J. Davis and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unemployment inflows fell from 4 percent of employment per month in the early 1980s to 2 percent or less by the mid 1990s and thereafter. U.S. data also show a secular decline in the job destruction rate and the volatility of firm-level employment growth rates. We interpret this decline as a decrease in the intensity of idiosyncratic labor demand shocks, a key parameter in search and matching models of unemployment. According to these models, a lower intensity of idiosyncratic shocks produces less job destruction, fewer workers flowing through the unemployment pool and less frictional unemployment. To evaluate the importance of this theoretical mechanism, we relate industry-level unemployment flows from 1977 to 2005 to industry-level indicators for the intensity of idiosyncratic shocks. Unlike previous research, we focus on the lower frequency relationship of job destruction and business volatility to unemployment flows. We find strong evidence that declines in the intensity of idiosyncratic labor demand shocks drove big declines in the incidence and rate of unemployment. This evidence implies that the unemployment rate has become much less sensitive to cyclical movements in the job-finding rate.
Book Synopsis The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility by : Gerald A. Carlino
Download or read book The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility written by Gerald A. Carlino and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Business Volatility, Job Destruction and Unemployment by : Steven J. Davis
Download or read book Business Volatility, Job Destruction and Unemployment written by Steven J. Davis and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unemployment inflows fell from 4 percent of employment per month in the early 1980s to 2 percent or less by the mid 1990s and thereafter. U.S. data also show a secular decline in the job destruction rate and the volatility of firm-level employment growth rates. We interpret this decline as a decrease in the intensity of idiosyncratic labor demand shocks, a key parameter in search and matching models of unemployment. According to these models, a lower intensity of idiosyncratic shocks produces less job destruction, fewer workers flowing through the unemployment pool and less frictional unemployment. To evaluate the importance of this theoretical mechanism, we relate industry-level unemployment flows from 1977 to 2005 to industry-level indicators for the intensity of idiosyncratic shocks. Unlike previous research, we focus on the lower frequency relationship of job destruction and business volatility to unemployment flows. We find strong evidence that declines in the intensity of idiosyncratic labor demand shocks drove big declines in the incidence and rate of unemployment. This evidence implies that the unemployment rate has become much less sensitive to cyclical movements in the job-finding rate.
Book Synopsis Postwar Period Changes in Employment Volatility by : Gerald A. Carlino
Download or read book Postwar Period Changes in Employment Volatility written by Gerald A. Carlino and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many recent studies have identified a decline in the volatility of U.S. real output over the last half century. This study examines a less discussed and analyzed trend, but one as significant as the drop in output volatility, namely a substantial decline in employment volatility during the postwar period. Using a new panel data set covering industry employment by state since 1952, the authors find that a large decline in employment growth volatility began in the early 1950s and largely ended by the mid- to late 1960s. This study also illuminates the geographical dimension of the declines, an aspect that has heretofore been unexamined. The data indicate that all states have shared in the volatility decline, although the magnitudes have differed. A pooled cross-section/time-series model indicates that fluctuations in statespecific (state level differences in demographic and industrial composition) and macro variables (e.g., changes in monetary policy regimes) have each played a potentially substantial role in explaining volatility trends. The authors find that state-specific forces account for between 1 percent and 24 percent of the variations in employment volatility across time and space. Macro variables account for between 30 percent and 76 percent of the movements in employment volatility, a range broadly consistent with the findings of Stock and Watson (2002). An important finding of this study is that "unknown forms of good luck," in the form of smaller shocks to employment, account for between 1 percent and 10 percent of the observed fluctuations. This latter finding suggests a reduced role for unknown forms of good luck in describing the postwar decline in volatility compared to the findings in Stock and Watson's (2002) analysis of the variance of real output growth.
Book Synopsis On the Stability of Employment Growth by : Gerald A. Carlino
Download or read book On the Stability of Employment Growth written by Gerald A. Carlino and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1952, the average quarterly volatility of U.S. state employment growth stood at 1.5 percent. By 1995, employment growth volatility came in at just under 0.5 percent. While all states shared in the decline, some states declined much more dramatically than others. We analyze aspects of this decline using new data covering industry employment by state during the postwar period. Estimates from a pooled cross-section/time-series model corrected for spatial dependence indicate that fluctuations in state-specific and aggregate variables have both played an important role in explaining volatility trends. However, state-level differences in responses to aggregate shocks account for less of the postwar fluctuations in employment growth volatility than do state-specific forces.
Book Synopsis Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run by : Pierpaolo Benigno
Download or read book Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run written by Pierpaolo Benigno and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a theory of low-frequency movements in unemployment based on asymmetric real wage rigidities. The theory generates two main predictions: long-run unemployment increases with (i) a fall in long-run productivity growth and (ii) a rise in the variance of productivity growth. Evidence based on U.S. time series and on an international panel strongly supports these predictions. The empirical specifications featuring the variance of productivity growth can account for two U.S. episodes which a linear model based only on long-run productivity growth cannot fully explain. These are the decline in long-run unemployment over the 1980s and its rise during the late 2000s.
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002 by : Ben S. Bernanke
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002 written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current issues in macroeconomics.
Book Synopsis The Less Volatile U.S. Economy by : Chang-Jin Kim
Download or read book The Less Volatile U.S. Economy written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Declines in the Volatility of the US Economy by : Bruce T. Grimm
Download or read book Declines in the Volatility of the US Economy written by Bruce T. Grimm and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Inside the Crystal Ball by : Maury Harris
Download or read book Inside the Crystal Ball written by Maury Harris and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book: Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions. Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment—a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks—in readable and illuminating detail. Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises. Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues—including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies. Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.
Book Synopsis Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates by : Steven J. Davis
Download or read book Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates written by Steven J. Davis and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the variability of business growth rates in the U.S. private sector from 1976 onwards. To carry out our study, we exploit the recently developed Longitudinal Business Database (LBD), which contains annual observations on employment and payroll for all U.S. businesses. Our central finding is a large secular decline in the cross sectional dispersion of firm growth rates and in the average magnitude of firm level volatility. Measured the same way as in other recent research, the employment-weighted mean volatility of firm growth rates has declined by more than 40% since 1982. This result stands in sharp contrast to previous findings of rising volatility for publicly traded firms in COMPUSTAT data. We confirm the rise in volatility among publicly traded firms using the LBD, but we show that its impact is overwhelmed by declining volatility among privately held firms. This pattern holds in every major industry group. Employment shifts toward older businesses account for 27 percent or more of the volatility decline among privately held firms. Simple cohort effects that capture higher volatility among more recently listed firms account for most of the volatility rise among publicly traded firms.
Book Synopsis Accelerating Decline in America's High-Skilled Workforce by : Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Download or read book Accelerating Decline in America's High-Skilled Workforce written by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2008 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kirkegaard explores the increasingly dysfunctional state of present US high-skilled immigration laws and recommends a coherent set of immediate reforms, which should aim to facilitate continuously high and increasingly economically necessary levels of high-skilled immigration to the United States. In recent decades American skill levels have stagnated and struggled to make the global top 10. As baby boomers retire, the United States risks losing these skills altogether. In response, the United States should address high-skilled immigration in its broader foreign economic policies in an attempt to remain a global leader in the face of accelerating global economic integration.
Book Synopsis Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Employment-to-Population Ratio by : Katharine G. Abraham
Download or read book Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Employment-to-Population Ratio written by Katharine G. Abraham and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper first documents trends in employment rates and then reviews what is known about the various factors that have been proposed to explain the decline in the overall employment-to-population ratio between 1999 and 2016. Population aging has had a notable effect on the overall employment rate over this period, but within-age-group declines in employment among young and prime age adults have been at least as important. Our review of the evidence leads us to conclude that labor demand factors, in particular trade and the penetration of robots into the labor market, are the most important drivers of observed within-group declines in employment. Labor supply factors, most notably increased participation in disability insurance programs, have played a less important but not inconsequential role. Increases in the real value of the minimum wage and in the share of individuals with prison records also have contributed modestly to the decline in the aggregate employment rate. In addition to these factors, whose effects we roughly quantify, we also identify a set of potentially important factors about which the evidence is too preliminary to draw any clear conclusion. These include improvements in leisure technology, changing social norms, increased drug use, growth in occupational licensing, and the costs and challenges associated with child care. Our evidence-driven ranking of factors should be useful for guiding future discussions about the sources of decline in the aggregate employment-to-population ratio and consequently the likely efficacy of alternative policy approaches to increasing employment rates.
Book Synopsis Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates by : Steven J. Davis
Download or read book Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates written by Steven J. Davis and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the variability of business growth rates in the U.S. private sector from 1976 onwards. To carry out our study, we exploit the recently developed Longitudinal Business Database (LBD), which contains annual observations on employment and payroll for all U.S. businesses. Our central finding is a large secular decline in the cross sectional dispersion of firm growth rates and in the average magnitude of firm level volatility. Measured the same way as in other recent research, the employment-weighted mean volatility of firm growth rates has declined by more than 40% since 1982. This result stands in sharp contrast to previous findings of rising volatility for publicly traded firms in COMPUSTAT data. We confirm the rise in volatility among publicly traded firms using the LBD, but we show that its impact is overwhelmed by declining volatility among privately held firms. This pattern holds in every major industry group. Employment shifts toward older businesses account for 27 percent or more of the volatility decline among privately held firms. Simple cohort effects that capture higher volatility among more recently listed firms account for most of the volatility rise among publicly traded firms.
Book Synopsis The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy by : Robert Leeson
Download or read book The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy written by Robert Leeson and published by Hoover Press. This book was released on 2013-09-01 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A contributors' "who's who" from the academic and policy communities explain and provide perspectives on John Taylor's revolutionary thinking about monetary policy. They explore some of the literature that Taylor inspired and help us understand how the new ways of thinking that he pioneered have influenced actual policy here and abroad.
Book Synopsis The Investor's Paradox by : Brian Portnoy
Download or read book The Investor's Paradox written by Brian Portnoy and published by Macmillan + ORM. This book was released on 2014-01-07 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investors are in a jam. A troubled global economy, unpredictable markets, and a bewildering number of investment choices create a dangerous landscape for individual and institutional investors alike. To meet this challenge, most of us rely on a portfolio of fund managers to take risk on our behalves. Here, investment expert Brian Portnoy delivers a powerful framework for choosing the right ones – and avoiding the losers. Portnoy reveals that the right answers are found by confronting our own subconscious biases and behavioral quirks. A paradox we all face is the natural desire for more choice in our lives, yet the more we have, the less satisfied we become – whether we're at the grocery store, choosing doctors, or flipping through hundreds of TV channels. So, too, with investing, where there are literally tens of thousands of funds from which to choose. Hence "the investor's paradox": We crave abundant investment choices to conquer volatile markets, yet with greater flexibility, the more overwhelmed and less empowered we become. Leveraging the fresh insights of behavioral economics, Portnoy demystifies the opaque world of elite hedge funds, addresses the limits of mass market mutual funds, and discards the false dichotomy between "traditional" and "alternative" investments. He also explores why hedge funds have recently become such a controversial and disruptive force. Turns out it's not the splashy headlines – spectacular trades, newly minted billionaires, aggressive tactics – but something much more fundamental. The stratospheric rise to prominence and availability of alternative strategies represents a further explosion in the size and complexity of the choice set in a market already saturated with products. It constitutes something we all both crave and detest. The Investor's Paradox lights a path toward simplicity in a world of dangerous markets and overwhelming choice. Written in accessible, jargon-free language, with a healthy skepticism of today's money management industry, it offers not only practical tools for investment success but also a message of empowerment for investors drowning in possibility.
