Trusted Leader

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Author :
Publisher : Berrett-Koehler Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1523093013
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (23 download)

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Book Synopsis Trusted Leader by : David Horsager

Download or read book Trusted Leader written by David Horsager and published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers. This book was released on 2021-03-30 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Without trust, people and businesses fail. Trusted Leader provides a framework for building trust so that you and your organizations can perform at your best. “A lack of trust is your biggest expense,” says Wall Street Journal bestselling author David Horsager. Without trust, transactions cannot occur. Without trust, influence is destroyed. Without trust, leaders lose their people. Trust can be either your most vulnerable weakness or your greatest asset. Horsager introduces readers to his Eight Pillars of Trust through the journey of a senior leader who thought success was certain. Follow CEO Ethan Parker as he discovers the power of trust and how to apply it amid the complexities of leadership, change, and culture transformation. The Eight Pillars of Trust (Clarity, Compassion, Character, Competency, Commitment, Connection, Contribution, and Consistency) are based on Horsager's original research and extensive experience working with Fortune 500 companies and top government agencies around the globe. In addition to the business parable, this book is rich in practical advice for implementing each of the Eight Pillars. You will learn strategies to increase alignment, overcome attrition, and get absolutely clear on executing your top priorities. Horsager offers a road map for how to become the most trusted expert in your industry.

Superforecasting

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Author :
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Time Predictions

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Author :
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319749536
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Predictions by : Torleif Halkjelsvik

Download or read book Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.

Perspectives on Digital Humanism

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030861449
Total Pages : 342 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (38 download)

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Book Synopsis Perspectives on Digital Humanism by : Hannes Werthner

Download or read book Perspectives on Digital Humanism written by Hannes Werthner and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-11-23 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book aims to set an agenda for research and action in the field of Digital Humanism through short essays written by selected thinkers from a variety of disciplines, including computer science, philosophy, education, law, economics, history, anthropology, political science, and sociology. This initiative emerged from the Vienna Manifesto on Digital Humanism and the associated lecture series. Digital Humanism deals with the complex relationships between people and machines in digital times. It acknowledges the potential of information technology. At the same time, it points to societal threats such as privacy violations and ethical concerns around artificial intelligence, automation and loss of jobs, ongoing monopolization on the Web, and sovereignty. Digital Humanism aims to address these topics with a sense of urgency but with a constructive mindset. The book argues for a Digital Humanism that analyses and, most importantly, influences the complex interplay of technology and humankind toward a better society and life while fully respecting universal human rights. It is a call to shaping technologies in accordance with human values and needs.

Future Babble

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Publisher : McClelland & Stewart
ISBN 13 : 0771035217
Total Pages : 319 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Future Babble by : Dan Gardner

Download or read book Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and published by McClelland & Stewart. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

The Future

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262344769
Total Pages : 194 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis The Future by : Nick Montfort

Download or read book The Future written by Nick Montfort and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-12-08 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How the future has been imagined and made, through the work of writers, artists, inventors, and designers. The future is like an unwritten book. It is not something we see in a crystal ball, or can only hope to predict, like the weather. In this volume of the MIT Press's Essential Knowledge series, Nick Montfort argues that the future is something to be made, not predicted. Montfort offers what he considers essential knowledge about the future, as seen in the work of writers, artists, inventors, and designers (mainly in Western culture) who developed and described the core components of the futures they envisioned. Montfort's approach is not that of futurology or scenario planning; instead, he reports on the work of making the future—the thinkers who devoted themselves to writing pages in the unwritten book. Douglas Engelbart, Alan Kay, and Ted Nelson didn't predict the future of computing, for instance. They were three of the people who made it. Montfort focuses on how the development of technologies—with an emphasis on digital technologies—has been bound up with ideas about the future. Readers learn about kitchens of the future and the vision behind them; literary utopias, from Plato's Republic to Edward Bellamy's Looking Backward and Charlotte Perkins Gilman's Herland; the Futurama exhibit at the 1939 New York World's Fair; and what led up to Tim Berners-Lee's invention of the World Wide Web. Montfort describes the notebook computer as a human-centered alterative to the idea of the computer as a room-sized “giant brain”; speculative practice in design and science fiction; and, throughout, the best ways to imagine and build the future.

Entrepreneurship for the Rest of Us

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Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351861891
Total Pages : 162 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Entrepreneurship for the Rest of Us by : Paul B. Brown

Download or read book Entrepreneurship for the Rest of Us written by Paul B. Brown and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-11-03 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today when the competition, technology, and the economy are evolving faster than ever before, organizations and the people like us who work in them need a proven approach to help us adapt--and succeed. The key, according to Paul B. Brown, is to think like an entrepreneur, no matter what your position or industry. What works for the most successful entrepreneurs will work for us, Brown argues, whether we want to stay employed working for someone else or are thinking of going off on our own. Based on extensive research, Entrepreneurship for the Rest of Us reveals the best practices of the most successful entrepreneurs, those who are adept at continually innovating and seeing opportunity where others do not. They do that by following a rigid approach. For example: They never start with a new idea, but by trying to solve a market need. Financing is an afterthought. They get started with the resources at hand (not only does that allow them to move quickly, if things don't work out, they are not out much). Perfect is the enemy of good, it is much more important to get out into the marketplace with a prototype than to keep fiddling with what you have. In short, the entrepreneurial mindset is a protection against economic uncertainty, and Brown's goal is to spread that thinking to individuals and large organizations alike. Though of course we won't all start or run our own companies, we need to learn to think like entrepreneurs so that when uncertainty hits, as it will again and again, individuals and companies will be better prepared to not only survive but win.

Frequency in Language

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107085756
Total Pages : 343 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Frequency in Language by : Dagmar Divjak

Download or read book Frequency in Language written by Dagmar Divjak and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-10 with total page 343 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Re-examines frequency, entrenchment and salience, three foundational concepts in usage-based linguistics, through the prism of learning, memory, and attention.

Expert Political Judgment

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

The Future of Logistics

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3834997641
Total Pages : 325 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (349 download)

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Book Synopsis The Future of Logistics by : Heiko A. von der Gracht

Download or read book The Future of Logistics written by Heiko A. von der Gracht and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-07-22 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on 51 interviews with logistics CEOs, strategists, and scenario experts, Heiko A. von der Gracht shows that the logistics service industry draws a backward picture of scenario planning practices as compared to other industries.

The Education We Need for a Future We Can′t Predict

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Author :
Publisher : Corwin Press
ISBN 13 : 1071838504
Total Pages : 181 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (718 download)

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Book Synopsis The Education We Need for a Future We Can′t Predict by : Thomas Hatch

Download or read book The Education We Need for a Future We Can′t Predict written by Thomas Hatch and published by Corwin Press. This book was released on 2021-01-19 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Improve Schools and Transform Education In order for educational systems to change, we must reevaluate deep-seated beliefs about learning, teaching, schooling, and race that perpetuate inequitable opportunities and outcomes. Hatch, Corson, and Gerth van den Berg challenge the narrative when it comes to the "grammar of schooling"--or the conventional structures, practices, and beliefs that define educational experiences for so many children—to cast a new vision of what school could be. The book addresses current systemic problems and solutions as it: Highlights global examples of successful school change Describes strategies that improve educational opportunities and performance Explores promising approaches in developing new learning opportunities Outlines conditions for supporting wide-scale educational improvement This provocative book approaches education reform by highlighting what works, while also demonstrating what can be accomplished if we redefine conventional schools. We can make the schools we have more efficient, more effective, and more equitable, all while creating powerful opportunities to support all aspects of students’ development. "You won’t find a better book on system change in education than this one. We learn why schools don’t change; how they can improve; what it takes to change a system; and, in the final analysis, the possibilities of system change. Above all, The Education We Need renders complexity into clarity as the writing is so clear and compelling. A powerful read on a topic of utmost importance." ~Michael Fullan, Professor Emeritus, OISE/Universtiy of Toronto "I cannot recommend this book highly enough – Tom tackles long-standing and emerging educational issues in new ways with an impressive understanding of the challenging complexities, but also feasible possibilities, for ensuring excellence and equity for all students." ~Carol Campbell, Associate Professor, Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto

Memory as Prediction

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Author :
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262361221
Total Pages : 211 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Memory as Prediction by : Tomaso Vecchi

Download or read book Memory as Prediction written by Tomaso Vecchi and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theoretical reflections and analytical observations on memory and prediction, linking these concepts to the role of the cerebellum in higher cognition. What is memory? What is memory for? Where is memory in the brain? Although memory is probably the most studied function in cognition, these fundamental questions remain challenging. We can try to answer the question of memory's purpose by defining the function of memory as remembering the past. And yet this definition is not consistent with the many errors that characterize our memory, or with the phylogenetic and ontogenetic origin of memory. In this book, Tomaso Vecchi and Daniele Gatti argue that the purpose of memory is not to remember the past but to predict the future.

Create Your Future the Peter Drucker Way: Developing and Applying a Forward-Focused Mindset

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Author :
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 0071820795
Total Pages : 225 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (718 download)

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Book Synopsis Create Your Future the Peter Drucker Way: Developing and Applying a Forward-Focused Mindset by : Bruce Rosenstein

Download or read book Create Your Future the Peter Drucker Way: Developing and Applying a Forward-Focused Mindset written by Bruce Rosenstein and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2013-11-22 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: YOUR FUTURE BEGINS TODAY You can dream it. You can plan it. You can try to make it happen. But you can never really prepare for the future unless you have a future-focused mindset. That is the underlying message behind the inspiring words and wisdom of Peter Drucker, the legendary "father of modern management." Drucker believed that the future must be created--day by day, person by person--rather than be left to chance or fate. This powerful book by Drucker scholar and author Bruce Rosenstein incorporates the master's time-tested principles into a step-by-step daily plan that will change your life forever. Starting right now, you can: Create a future-focused mindset. Learn how to build a better tomorrow by taking steps today. Determine the future by what has already happened. Look for clues in the past to forecast the future. Become your own successor. Keep yourself in demand and in control of your destiny. Shape the future of your organization. Go beyond the planning stage and create real change. Build your future beyond your current workplace. Identify challenges and opportunities in all aspects of your life. Whether you're a recent college graduate faced with a difficult job market, an ambitious entrepreneur trying to anticipate the Next Big Thing, or a struggling executive weathering a storm of constant global change, Drucker's surprisingly timely approach to the future will guide you through anything the world throws at you. You'll discover creative techniques for rolling with the punches and landing on your feet, open-minded strategies for turning your ideas into action, and the latest tools for adapting to new technologies like social media and Internet marketing. You'll find inspiring advice and insights drawn from personal interviews with Drucker himself and some of the greatest business leaders of our time. Most importantly, you'll develop your own exciting, forwardthinking approach to the future that will dramatically alter your life, inside and outside the office. This is how you take charge of your destiny. This is how you make your dreams come true. This is how to Create Your Future the Peter Drucker Way. PRAISE FOR CREATE YOUR FUTURE THE PETER DRUCKER WAY: "Rosenstein skillfully draws on both his own wisdom and that of his mentor to deliver a plan for individuals and businesses in creating a future rich in personal and professional success. Leave your compass at home; all you need is Rosenstein's new book!" -- MARSHALL GOLDSMITH, million-selling author of the New York Times bestsellers, MOJO and What Got You Here Won't Get You There "Create Your Future the Peter Drucker Way presents Peter Drucker as a role model for designing and living your own future, beginning in the here and now. The book has expanded my understanding of Drucker's work and I'm confident it will do the same for you." -- CHIP CONLEY, founder and former CEO of Joie de Vivre Hospitality; author of New York Times bestseller Emotional Equations "Rosenstein has opened the door to an important and often misunderstood area of Drucker's work--why an understanding of the future is so critical for our development as leaders. It confirms my belief of a bright future ahead." -- FRANCES HESSELBEIN, President and CEO, The Frances Hesselbein Leadership Institute "In this concise and compelling book, Rosenstein provides a unique contribution: mining the nuggets of Peter Drucker's most important work about the future and presenting them in a brief, accessible format. Bruce is the ideal person to make Peter's work useful and valuable in this way." -- BOB BUFORD, Chairman Emeritus, Board of Advisors of The Drucker Institute; author of Halftime

Physics of the Future

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Author :
Publisher : Anchor
ISBN 13 : 0385530811
Total Pages : 456 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (855 download)

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Book Synopsis Physics of the Future by : Michio Kaku

Download or read book Physics of the Future written by Michio Kaku and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2011-03-15 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NATIONAL BESTSELLER • The renowned theoretical physicist and national bestselling author of The God Equation details the developments in computer technology, artificial intelligence, medicine, space travel, and more, that are poised to happen over the next century. “Mind-bending…. [An] alternately fascinating and frightening book.” —San Francisco Chronicle Space elevators. Internet-enabled contact lenses. Cars that fly by floating on magnetic fields. This is the stuff of science fiction—it’s also daily life in the year 2100. Renowned theoretical physicist Michio Kaku considers how these inventions will affect the world economy, addressing the key questions: Who will have jobs? Which nations will prosper? Kaku interviews three hundred of the world’s top scientists—working in their labs on astonishing prototypes. He also takes into account the rigorous scientific principles that regulate how quickly, how safely, and how far technologies can advance. In Physics of the Future, Kaku forecasts a century of earthshaking advances in technology that could make even the last centuries’ leaps and bounds seem insignificant.

Sensing the Future

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Author :
Publisher : Crossroad Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 325 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Sensing the Future by : Trish MacGregor

Download or read book Sensing the Future written by Trish MacGregor and published by Crossroad Press. This book was released on 2020-05-01 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover Your Untapped Potential to Predict the Future Have you ever had a hunch that became reality? You may be ignoring signs from the universe about what is to come. Trish and Rob MacGregor, authors and founders of the blog Synchro Secrets, explain how to train your brain and recognize signs in order to enhance your innate precognitive abilities. Over 400 years ago, Nostradamus wrote predictions that are still relevant, and even today, there are those who experience dreams and physical symptoms prior to catastrophic events such as 9/11. Whether you have had prophetic dreams about a loved one or wish to learn more about these mysterious abilities, Sensing the Future will show you how to harness the power of your intuition. We all have the ability to predict the future if we open ourselves up to the signs of the universe.

Looking Forward

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Author :
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022647500X
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (264 download)

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Book Synopsis Looking Forward by : Jamie L. Pietruska

Download or read book Looking Forward written by Jamie L. Pietruska and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2017-12-08 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction: crisis of certainty -- Cotton guesses -- The daily "probabilities"--Weather prophecies -- Economies of the future -- Promises of love and money -- Epilogue: specters of uncertainty

Critical Path

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Author :
Publisher : Estate of R. Buckminster Fuller
ISBN 13 : 0996827803
Total Pages : 892 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (968 download)

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Book Synopsis Critical Path by : R. Buckminster Fuller

Download or read book Critical Path written by R. Buckminster Fuller and published by Estate of R. Buckminster Fuller. This book was released on 1982-02-15 with total page 892 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The masterwork of a brilliant career, and an important document of the crisis now facing mankind. Today we find ourselves in the midst of the greatest crisis in the history of the human race. Technology has placed in our hands almost unlimited power at the very moment when we have run up against the limits of our resources aboard Spaceship Earth, as the crises of the late twentieth century—political, economic, environmental, and ethical—determine whether or not humanity survives. In this masterful summing up of an entire lifetime’s thought and concern, R. Buckminster Fuller addresses these crucial issues in his most significant, accessible, and urgent work. Critical Path traces the origins and evolution of humanity’s social, political, and economic systems from the obscure mists of prehistory, through the development of the great political empires, to the vast international corporate and political systems that control our destiny today to show how we got to our present situation and what options are available to man. With his customary brilliance, extraordinary energy, and unlimited devotion, Bucky Fuller shows how mankind can survive, and how each individual can respond to the unprecedented threat we face today. The crowning achievement of an extraordinary career, Critical Path offers the reader the excitement of understanding the essential dilemmas of our time and how responsible citizens can rise to meet this ultimate challenge to our future.