The Areas Of My Expertise

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The Areas of My Expertise

Author : John Hodgman
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1101653612
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (16 download)

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Book Synopsis The Areas of My Expertise by : John Hodgman

Download or read book The Areas of My Expertise written by John Hodgman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-10-02 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the great tradition of the American almanac, The Areas of My Expertise is a brilliant and hilarious compendium of handy reference tables, fascinating trivia, and sage wisdom on all topics large and small. Although bestsellers such as Poor Richard’s Almanack and The Book of Lists were certainly valuable, they also were largely true. Here is a different kind of handy desk reference, one in which all of the historical oddities and amazing true facts are sifted through the singular, illuminating imagination of John Hodgman—which is the nice way of saying: He made it all up. John Hodgman brings his considerable expertise to bear in answering all of the questions book buyers have been asking: -What are the mottoes of the 51 United States? THE ANSWER IS PROVIDED -Who were the U.S. presidents who had hooks for hands? THE ANSWER IS PROVIDED -What role does the Yale secret society “Skull and Bones” play in the secret world government? THERE IS NO SECRET WORLD GOVERNMENT -What was the menu at the first Thanksgiving, and did it include eels? Technically, that is two questions, but do not apologize, for John Hodgman shall answer them both . . . LATER. -Aside from a compendium of fake trivia, what is the best kind of book to write? A SIMPLE TABLE OF THE 55 MOST DRAMATIC LITERARY SITUATIONS PROVIDES THE ANSWER, and John Hodgman is the author of that table. Imagine if The Book of Lists had been rewritten by Peter Cook and Jorge Luis Borges under the pseudonym of “John Hodgman” and then renamed The Areas of My Expertise, and you will only begin to have a sense of the dizzying, uproarious, sublimely weird, and strangely wise journey that is contained within this book (along with all the pages and words). Perfect for anyone who thirsts for knowledge, and especially for collectors of books of fake trivia, The Areas of My Expertise offers through absurdity a better understanding of the world we share—and recognizes that while the truth may be stranger than fiction, it is never as strange as lies . . . or as true. Look out for John Hodgman's latest book, Vacationland, available from Viking in Fall 2017.

More Information Than You Require

Author : John Hodgman
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 9780525950349
Total Pages : 376 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (53 download)

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Book Synopsis More Information Than You Require by : John Hodgman

Download or read book More Information Than You Require written by John Hodgman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2008 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The best-selling author of The Areas of My Expertise presents a tongue-in-cheek compendium of made-up facts that fall under such headings as "The Method by Which We Elect Our Presidents," "How to Be a Famous Minor Television Personality," and "Gambling: The Sport of the Asthmatic Man." 150,000 first printing.

The Science of Expertise

Author : David Z. Hambrick
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351624849
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis The Science of Expertise by : David Z. Hambrick

Download or read book The Science of Expertise written by David Z. Hambrick and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-09-22 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offering the broadest review of psychological perspectives on human expertise to date, this volume covers behavioral, computational, neural, and genetic approaches to understanding complex skill. The chapters show how performance in music, the arts, sports, games, medicine, and other domains reflects basic traits such as personality and intelligence, as well as knowledge and skills acquired through training. In doing so, this book moves the field of expertise beyond the duality of "nature vs. nurture" toward an integrative understanding of complex skill. This book is an invaluable resource for researchers and students interested in expertise, and for professionals seeking current reviews of psychological research on expertise.

The Death of Expertise

Author : Tom Nichols
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190469439
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis The Death of Expertise by : Tom Nichols

Download or read book The Death of Expertise written by Tom Nichols and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-02-01 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technology and increasing levels of education have exposed people to more information than ever before. These societal gains, however, have also helped fuel a surge in narcissistic and misguided intellectual egalitarianism that has crippled informed debates on any number of issues. Today, everyone knows everything: with only a quick trip through WebMD or Wikipedia, average citizens believe themselves to be on an equal intellectual footing with doctors and diplomats. All voices, even the most ridiculous, demand to be taken with equal seriousness, and any claim to the contrary is dismissed as undemocratic elitism. Tom Nichols' The Death of Expertise shows how this rejection of experts has occurred: the openness of the internet, the emergence of a customer satisfaction model in higher education, and the transformation of the news industry into a 24-hour entertainment machine, among other reasons. Paradoxically, the increasingly democratic dissemination of information, rather than producing an educated public, has instead created an army of ill-informed and angry citizens who denounce intellectual achievement. When ordinary citizens believe that no one knows more than anyone else, democratic institutions themselves are in danger of falling either to populism or to technocracy or, in the worst case, a combination of both. An update to the 2017breakout hit, the paperback edition of The Death of Expertise provides a new foreword to cover the alarming exacerbation of these trends in the aftermath of Donald Trump's election. Judging from events on the ground since it first published, The Death of Expertise issues a warning about the stability and survival of modern democracy in the Information Age that is even more important today.

The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance

Author : K. Anders Ericsson
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139456466
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance by : K. Anders Ericsson

Download or read book The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance written by K. Anders Ericsson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-06-26 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book was the first handbook where the world's foremost 'experts on expertise' reviewed our scientific knowledge on expertise and expert performance and how experts may differ from non-experts in terms of their development, training, reasoning, knowledge, social support, and innate talent. Methods are described for the study of experts' knowledge and their performance of representative tasks from their domain of expertise. The development of expertise is also studied by retrospective interviews and the daily lives of experts are studied with diaries. In 15 major domains of expertise, the leading researchers summarize our knowledge on the structure and acquisition of expert skill and knowledge and discuss future prospects. General issues that cut across most domains are reviewed in chapters on various aspects of expertise such as general and practical intelligence, differences in brain activity, self-regulated learning, deliberate practice, aging, knowledge management, and creativity.

That Is All

Author : John Hodgman
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1101653507
Total Pages : 397 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (16 download)

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Book Synopsis That Is All by : John Hodgman

Download or read book That Is All written by John Hodgman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-10-02 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Hodgman—bestselling author, The Daily Show's "Resident Expert," minor television celebrity, and deranged millionaire—brings us the third and final installment in his trilogy of Complete World Knowledge. In 2005, Dutton published The Areas of My Expertise, a handy little book of Complete World Knowledge, marked by the distinction that all of the fascinating trivia and amazing true facts were completely made up by its author, John Hodgman. At the time, Hodgman was merely a former literary agent and occasional scribbler of fake trivia. In short: a nobody. But during an interview on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, an incredible transformation occurred. He became a famous minor television personality. You may ask: During his whirlwind tornado ride through the high ether of minor fame and outrageous fortune, did John Hodgman forget how to write books of fake trivia? The answer is: Yes. Briefly. But soon, he remembered! And so he returned, crashing his Kansas farmhouse down upon the wicked witch of ignorance with More Information Than You Require, a New York Times bestseller containing even more mesmerizing and essential fake trivia, including seven hundred mole-man names (and their occupations). And now, John Hodgman completes his vision with That Is All, the last book in a trilogy of Complete World Knowledge. Like its predecessors, That Is All compiles incredibly handy made-up facts into brief articles, overlong lists, and beguiling narratives on new and familiar themes. It picks up exactly where More Information left off—specifically, at page 596—and finally completes COMPLETE WORLD KNOWLEDGE. Look out for John Hodgman's latest book, Vacationland, available from Viking in Fall 2017.

The Philosophy of Expertise

Author : Evan Selinger
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780231136440
Total Pages : 438 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (364 download)

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Book Synopsis The Philosophy of Expertise by : Evan Selinger

Download or read book The Philosophy of Expertise written by Evan Selinger and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the use of expert testimony in the courtroom to the advice we rely on to solve key economic, political, and social problems, expertise is an essential part of our decision-making process. However, the extent to which experts can be trusted is a subject of persistent and contentious debate. The Philosophy of Expertise is the first collection to explore the fundamental philosophical issues surrounding these authorities and their expert knowledge. Part 1 considers the problems surrounding the issue of trust and deference; part 2 launches a phenomenological clarification of expertise that pinpoints the universal structures embodied in cognition and affect; and part 3 examines the consequences of the social and technical externalization of expertise. Contributors including Edward Said, Alvin Goldman, Peter Singer, Hubert Dreyfus, Julia Annas, Harry Collins, and Don Ihde draw on a number of intellectual approaches to explore the justification of expert authority, the potentially dangerous role of expertise in a liberal democratic society, how laypeople can critique experts, and the social and ideological character of expert advice. The contributors also discuss the reasoning process of judges and juries, the ancient Greek view of moral conduct, and the incorporation of experts into governmental bureaucracy. By honestly tackling the legitimacy and consistency of various positions, this volume sheds much-needed light on the theoretical dimensions of a controversial and pervasive practice. Contributors: Alvin I. Goldman, Don Ihde, Edward Said, Evan Selinger and John Mix, Evan Selinger and Robert P. Crease, H. M. Collins and Robert Evans, Hélène Mialet, Hubert Dreyfus, John Hardwig, Julia Annas, Paul Feyerabend, Peter Singer, Scott Brewer, Steve Fuller, Steven Turner

Medallion Status

Author : John Hodgman
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0525561110
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (255 download)

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Book Synopsis Medallion Status by : John Hodgman

Download or read book Medallion Status written by John Hodgman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2019-10-15 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “[An] affecting and hilarious meditation on fame and prestige as seen through the lens of an airline loyalty program.” —The AV Club A hilarious and honest new book in which John Hodgman, New York Times bestselling author of Vacationland, leaves vacation behind and gets back to work as a still somewhat famous person . . . and then loses his job. An uproarious read. After spending most of his twenties pursuing a career as a literary agent, John Hodgman decided to try his own hand at writing. Following an appearance to promote one of his books on The Daily Show, he was invited to return as a contributor. This led to an unexpected and, frankly, implausible career in front of the camera that has lasted to this very day, or at least until 2016. In these pages, Hodgman explores the strangeness of his career, speaking plainly of fame, especially at the weird, marginal level he enjoyed it. Through these stories you will learn many things that only John Hodgman knows, such as how to prepare for a nude scene with an oboe, or what it feels like to go to a Hollywood party and realize that you are not nearly as famous as the Property Brothers, or, for that matter, those two famous corgis from Instagram. And there are stories about how, when your television gig is canceled, you can console yourself with the fact that all of that travel that made your young son so sad at least left you with a prize: platinum medallion status with your airline. Both unflinchingly funny and deeply heartfelt, Medallion Status is a thoughtful examination of status, fame, and identity--and about the way we all deal with those moments when we realize we aren't platinum status anymore and will have to get comfortable in that middle seat again.

The Genius Zone

Author : Gay Hendricks, PH.D.
Publisher : St. Martin's Essentials
ISBN 13 : 1250622611
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (56 download)

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Book Synopsis The Genius Zone by : Gay Hendricks, PH.D.

Download or read book The Genius Zone written by Gay Hendricks, PH.D. and published by St. Martin's Essentials. This book was released on 2021-06-29 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Too often we live lives that we find unfulfilling, fail to reach our own potential, and neglect to practice creativity in our daily routines. Gay Hendricks's The Genius Zone offers a way to change that by tapping into your own innate creativity. Dr. Gay Hendricks broke new ground with his bestselling classic, The Big Leap, which has become an essential resource for coaches, entrepreneurs, executives, and health practitioners around the world. Originally published as The Joy of Genius, The Genius Zone has been updated and expanded throughout, making it the essential next step beyond The Big Leap. In The Genius Zone, Hendricks introduces his brilliant exercise, the Genius Move, a simple, life-altering practice that allows readers to end negative thinking and thrive authentically. By using the Genius Move, readers will learn to spend more of their lives in their zone of genius—where creativity flows freely and they are actively pursuing the things that offer them fulfillment and satisfaction. Filled with hands-on exercises and personal stories from the author, The Genius Zone is an essential guide to creative fulfillment. If you are committed to bringing forth your innate genius and making your largest possible creative contribution, The Genius Zone will become a trusted companion for the journey.

Development of Professional Expertise

Author : K. Anders Ericsson
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521518466
Total Pages : 571 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (215 download)

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Book Synopsis Development of Professional Expertise by : K. Anders Ericsson

Download or read book Development of Professional Expertise written by K. Anders Ericsson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-22 with total page 571 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Professionals such as medical doctors, aeroplane pilots, lawyers, and technical specialists find that some of their peers have reached high levels of achievement that are difficult to measure objectively. In order to understand to what extent it is possible to learn from these expert performers for the purpose of helping others improve their performance, we first need to reproduce and measure this performance. This book is designed to provide the first comprehensive overview of research on the acquisition and training of professional performance as measured by objective methods rather than by subjective ratings by supervisors. In this collection of articles, the world's foremost experts discuss methods for assessing the experts' knowledge and review our knowledge on how we can measure professional performance and design training environments that permit beginning and experienced professionals to develop and maintain their high levels of performance, using examples from a wide range of professional domains.

The Models of Skill Acquisition and Expertise Development

Author : Raman K. Attri
Publisher : Speed To Proficiency Research: S2Pro©
ISBN 13 : 9811189889
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (111 download)

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Book Synopsis The Models of Skill Acquisition and Expertise Development by : Raman K. Attri

Download or read book The Models of Skill Acquisition and Expertise Development written by Raman K. Attri and published by Speed To Proficiency Research: S2Pro©. This book was released on 2019-03-30 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book offers condensed summaries of twenty-three major skill acquisition and expertise development models presented by leading researchers during the last half a century of classic and new research. This book presents new researchers in learning, training, cognitive sciences, or education disciplines with a big picture starting point for their literature review journey. The book presents an easy-to-understand taxonomy of twenty-three models, giving new researchers a good bird’s eye view of existing models and theories. They can decide which direction to dig further. The reviews in this book are complemented with over 200 authentic sources, which a researcher read for a detailed and deeper dive and set the direction for further exploration. This book would also act as an essential reference for training & learning professionals and instructional designers to design research-based training curriculum to develop the skills of their staff. Chapter 1 of the book elaborates on how the processes of learning, skill acquisition, and expertise development are interwoven. Chapter 2 presents a classification system to categorize various models reviewed in the literature under five groups. Chapter 3 describes twelve models of skill and expertise acquisition which are represented in the form of stages used frequently in learning, training, and performance literature. The chapter also briefly discusses each model's implications toward developing the skills and expertise of a less proficient individual to a higher level of proficiency. Chapter 4 reviews practice-, time- or task-based models, which are theories or models suggesting that acquisition of knowledge & skills, development of expertise, and performance improvement is a function of nature of the practice, amount of time spent on the task and task type. Chapter 5 presents the factor-based models, suggesting the interplay of several factors that influence the acquisition of knowledge & skills, development of expertise, and performance improvement. Chapter 6 embarks on describing expert modeling-based models, suggesting modeling an expert through elicitation or guidance for the acquisition of knowledge & skills, development of expertise, and performance improvement. Chapter 7 covers some newer movements toward cognition-based models, which are theories or models focusing on mechanisms of cognitive learning for the acquisition of knowledge & skills, development of expertise, and performance improvement. Chapter 8 concludes the book by integrating views from various thought leaders to explain a famous staged skill acquisition model.

Toward a General Theory of Expertise

Author : K. Anders Ericsson
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521406123
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (61 download)

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Book Synopsis Toward a General Theory of Expertise by : K. Anders Ericsson

Download or read book Toward a General Theory of Expertise written by K. Anders Ericsson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991-08-30 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last twenty years our understanding of expertise has dramatically increased. Laboratory analysis of chess masters, experts in physics and medicine, musicians, athletics, writers, and performance artists have included careful examination of the cognitive processes mediating outstanding performance in very diverse areas of expertise. These analyses have shown that expert performance is primarily a reflection of acquired skill resulting from the accumulation of domain-specific knowledge and methods during many years of training practice. The importance of domain-specific knowledge has led researchers on expertise to focus on characteristics of expertise in specific domains. In Toward a General Theory of Expertise many of the world's foremost scientists review the state-of-the-art knowledge about expertise in different domains, with the goal of identifying characteristics of expert performance that are generalizable across many different areas of expertise. These essays provide a comprehensive summary of general methods for studying expertise and of current knowledge about expertise in chess, physics, medicine, sports and performance arts, music, writing, and decision making. Most important, the essays reveal the existence of many general characteristics of expertise.

Effectuation

Author : Sarasvathy, Saras D.
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1839102586
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (391 download)

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Book Synopsis Effectuation by : Sarasvathy, Saras D.

Download or read book Effectuation written by Sarasvathy, Saras D. and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2022-01-28 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To effectuate is to engage in a specific type of entrepreneurial action. It has special importance for situations where the future is truly unknowable or human agency is of primary importance. In this new and updated edition of the bestselling Effectuation, Saras Sarasvathy explores the theory and techniques of non-predictive control for creating new firms, markets and economic opportunities.

Vacationland

Author : John Hodgman
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0735224811
Total Pages : 274 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (352 download)

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Book Synopsis Vacationland by : John Hodgman

Download or read book Vacationland written by John Hodgman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2017-10-24 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “I love everything about this hilarious book except the font size.” —Jon Stewart Although his career as a bestselling author and on The Daily Show With Jon Stewart was founded on fake news and invented facts, in 2016 that routine didn’t seem as funny to John Hodgman anymore. Everyone is doing it now. Disarmed of falsehood, he was left only with the awful truth: John Hodgman is an older white male monster with bad facial hair, wandering like a privileged Sasquatch through three wildernesses: the hills of Western Massachusetts where he spent much of his youth; the painful beaches of Maine that want to kill him (and some day will); and the metaphoric haunted forest of middle age that connects them. Vacationland collects these real life wanderings, and through them you learn of the horror of freshwater clams, the evolutionary purpose of the mustache, and which animals to keep as pets and which to kill with traps and poison. There is also some advice on how to react when the people of coastal Maine try to sacrifice you to their strange god. Though wildly, Hodgmaniacally funny as usual, it is also a poignant and sincere account of one human facing his forties, those years when men in particular must stop pretending to be the children of bright potential they were and settle into the failing bodies of the wiser, weird dads that they are.

Leading Powerful Professional Learning

Author : Deidre Le Fevre
Publisher : Corwin Press
ISBN 13 : 1544386818
Total Pages : 305 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (443 download)

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Book Synopsis Leading Powerful Professional Learning by : Deidre Le Fevre

Download or read book Leading Powerful Professional Learning written by Deidre Le Fevre and published by Corwin Press. This book was released on 2019-09-19 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Effective facilitation is complex What is central to leading powerful and effective facilitation in professional learning? You. Gone are the one-size-fits-all answers—instead, you’ll draw from your own knowledge and expertise to lead your PLC in actively solving complex problems that are unique to your context. For professional learning to have an improvement impact for both teachers and students, it needs to be more than a single event. Truly successful professional learning is sustained, collaborative, evidence-informed, and student-focused—generating multifaceted solutions to real-life, real-time issues rather than focusing on one piece of the practice puzzle at a time. This book, based on the results of a five-year research study, provides: • An innovative approach to the design and delivery of professional learning grounded in principles of adaptive expertise • Easy-to-use one-page summaries of "Deliberate Acts of Facilitation" • Guidance that’s fully congruent with Learning Forward Standards for Professional Learning The current educational landscape demands a new kind of leadership. This book gives you the tools you need to apply the principles of adaptive expertise to your leadership and facilitation—enabling you to draw on your own deep knowledge to address the complex challenges you and your teachers face every day.

Informed by Knowledge

Author : Kathleen L. Mosier
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1136945105
Total Pages : 534 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (369 download)

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Book Synopsis Informed by Knowledge by : Kathleen L. Mosier

Download or read book Informed by Knowledge written by Kathleen L. Mosier and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2011-01-07 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of this book is on how experts adapt to complexity, synthesize and interpret information in context, and transform or "fuse" disparate items of information into coherent knowledge. The chapters examine these processes across experts (e.g. global leaders, individuals in extreme environments, managers, police officers, pilots, commanders, doctors, inventors), across contexts (e.g. space and space analogs, corporate organizations, command and control, crisis and crowd management, air traffic control, the operating room, product development), and for both individual and team performance. Successful information integration is a key factor in the success of diverse endeavors, including team attempts to climb Mt. Everest, crowd control in the Middle East, and remote drilling operations. This volume is divided into four sections, each with a specific focus on an area of expert performance, resulting in a text that covers a wide range of useful information. These sections present well-researched discussions, such as: the management of complex situations in various fields and decision contexts; technological and training approaches to facilitate knowledge management by individual experts and expert teams; new or neglected perspectives in expert decision making; and the importance of ‘modeling’ expert performance through techniques and frameworks such as Cognitive Task Analysis, computational architectures based on the notion of causal belief mapping such as ‘Convince Me,’ or the data/frame model of sensemaking. The volume provides essential reading for researchers and practitioners of Naturalistic Decision Making and those who study Expertise; Organizational and Cognitive Psychologists; and researchers and students in Business and Engineering.

Expert Political Judgment

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.