The Adaptive Market Hypothesis And Stock Return Predictability

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The Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Stock Return Predictability

Author : Andrew Urquhart
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis The Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Stock Return Predictability by : Andrew Urquhart

Download or read book The Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Stock Return Predictability written by Andrew Urquhart and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the adaptive market hypothesis of the S&P500, FTSE100, NIKKEI225 and EURO STOXX 50 by testing for stock return predictability using daily data from January 1990 to May 2014. We apply three bootstrapped versions of the variance ratio test to the raw stock returns and also whiten the returns through an AR-GARCH process to study the nonlinear predictability after accounting for conditional heteroscedasticity through the BDS test. We evaluate the time-varying return predictability by applying these tests to fixed length moving subsample windows. We also examine whether there is a relationship between the level of predictability in stock returns and market conditions. The results show that there are periods of significant return predictability, but also episodes of no significant predictability in stock returns. We also find that certain market conditions are significantly related to predictability in certain markets but each market interacts differently with the different market conditions. Therefore our findings suggest that significant return predictability in stock markets does vary over time in a manner consistent with the adaptive market hypothesis and that each market adapts differently to certain market conditions.

The Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Predictability of Stock Returns in Africa

Author : Axola Victor Chumani Myendeki
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 106 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (123 download)

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Book Synopsis The Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Predictability of Stock Returns in Africa by : Axola Victor Chumani Myendeki

Download or read book The Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Predictability of Stock Returns in Africa written by Axola Victor Chumani Myendeki and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Stock Returns Predictability and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis in Emerging Markets

Author : Gourishankar S. Hiremath
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 14 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Stock Returns Predictability and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis in Emerging Markets by : Gourishankar S. Hiremath

Download or read book Stock Returns Predictability and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis in Emerging Markets written by Gourishankar S. Hiremath and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency.

The Predictability of Stock Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Author : Zsuzsanna Fluck
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis The Predictability of Stock Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis by : Zsuzsanna Fluck

Download or read book The Predictability of Stock Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis written by Zsuzsanna Fluck and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Quantitative Financial Economics

Author : Keith Cuthbertson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 047009172X
Total Pages : 736 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Quantitative Financial Economics by : Keith Cuthbertson

Download or read book Quantitative Financial Economics written by Keith Cuthbertson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-05-05 with total page 736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edition of the hugely successful Quantitative Financial Economics has been revised and updated to reflect the most recent theoretical and econometric/empirical advances in the financial markets. It provides an introduction to models of economic behaviour in financial markets, focusing on discrete time series analysis. Emphasis is placed on theory, testing and explaining ‘real-world’ issues. The new edition will include: Updated charts and cases studies. New companion website allowing students to put theory into practice and to test their knowledge through questions and answers. Chapters on Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrapping and market microstructure.

Adaptive Markets

Author : Andrew W. Lo
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 069119680X
Total Pages : 503 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Adaptive Markets by : Andrew W. Lo

Download or read book Adaptive Markets written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-05-14 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can’t agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and irrationality coexist—the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo’s new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought—a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how markets really work.

Are Stock Markets Adaptive? Evidence from US, Hong Kong and India

Author : Anand Shah
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Are Stock Markets Adaptive? Evidence from US, Hong Kong and India by : Anand Shah

Download or read book Are Stock Markets Adaptive? Evidence from US, Hong Kong and India written by Anand Shah and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study tests the adaptive market hypothesis for the US (Dow Jones and S&P 500), Hong Kong (Hang Seng) and Indian (BSE Sensex) stock markets by testing the 20 years of daily and the weekly data for the return predictability. The indices exhibit the time varying realized risk premia, and the time varying risk return characteristic (Sharpe ratio), indicating that risk preferences are adaptive to the changing market conditions. We also test the time varying return predictability by applying the Ljung - Box test and the Chow - Denning heteroscedasticity consistent variance ratio test to the fixed length moving sub-sample windows of 100, 200, 300 and 500 days and 25, 50 and 100 weeks. We find the evidence of the changing return predictability for all the indices and for all the sub-sample window sizes. Despite the significant correlation between the log returns of the indices, barring Dow Jones and S&P 500, for the weekly data, the periods of the return predictability of the indices do not coincide. For the daily data, the return predictability for the US and the Indian stock markets coincided during the sub-prime crisis of 2008. The heteroscedasticity consistent Chow - Denning statistic is a better measure for comparing the relative market efficiency between the stock markets. This statistic is robust to the sub-sample window size and data frequency i.e. weekly or daily data. This statistic indicates that the periods of return predictability are sparse and hence an active investment management could add value by implementing appropriate trading strategies in the periods of the return predictability. For the period considered, the relative efficiency of Indian stock market is comparable to that of the US stock market.

The Econometrics of Financial Markets

Author : John Y. Campbell
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400830214
Total Pages : 630 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis The Econometrics of Financial Markets by : John Y. Campbell

Download or read book The Econometrics of Financial Markets written by John Y. Campbell and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-06-28 with total page 630 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.

The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis

Author : Andrew W. Lo
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199681147
Total Pages : 801 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)

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Book Synopsis The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis by : Andrew W. Lo

Download or read book The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024-02-09 with total page 801 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis is a formal and systematic exposition. Lo and Zhang develop the mathematical foundations of the simple yet powerful evolutionary model and show that the most fundamental economic behaviours that we take for granted emerge solely through natural selection.

The Cross-section of Stock Returns

Author : Stijn Claessens
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Cross-section of Stock Returns by : Stijn Claessens

Download or read book The Cross-section of Stock Returns written by Stijn Claessens and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1995 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Predictability of Stock Returns

Author : Zhong-guo Zhou
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 252 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (121 download)

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Book Synopsis The Predictability of Stock Returns by : Zhong-guo Zhou

Download or read book The Predictability of Stock Returns written by Zhong-guo Zhou and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street

Author : Andrew W. Lo
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400829097
Total Pages : 449 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street by : Andrew W. Lo

Download or read book A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-11-14 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles, Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into the financial technologies of the future. The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Application to Stock Markets

Author : Sebastian Harder
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3640743768
Total Pages : 65 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Application to Stock Markets by : Sebastian Harder

Download or read book The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Application to Stock Markets written by Sebastian Harder and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2008 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1.7, The FOM University of Applied Sciences, Hamburg, language: English, abstract: Especially after the 90ies, where the stock markets raised enormously, many private investors joined the stock market and were blended by abnormal profits and neglected possible losses. The same behavior could be observed before the Financial Crisis became reality. But each endless raising stock market would finally collapse, because stock prices are randomly and only driven by relevant news. The adjustment to the news is quickly. This is the theoretical argumentation of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which will be evaluated in this paper. The author gives an overview about the EMH by explaining the basic principles and its mathematical formulation. The practical part evaluated the EMH on selected examples, where the theory could only be partly approved.

Essays on Stock Return Predictability and Market Efficiency

Author : Lei Jiang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Stock Return Predictability and Market Efficiency by : Lei Jiang

Download or read book Essays on Stock Return Predictability and Market Efficiency written by Lei Jiang and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A Nonlinear Time Series Workshop

Author : Douglas M. Patterson
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792386742
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (867 download)

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Book Synopsis A Nonlinear Time Series Workshop by : Douglas M. Patterson

Download or read book A Nonlinear Time Series Workshop written by Douglas M. Patterson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2000 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis ofwhat might be called "dynamic nonlinearity" in time series has its roots in the pioneering work ofBrillinger (1965) - who first pointed out how the bispectrum and higher order polyspectra could, in principle, be used to test for nonlinear serial dependence - and in Subba Rao and Gabr (1980) and Hinich (1982) who each showed how Brillinger's insight could be translated into a statistical test. Hinich's test, because ittakes advantage ofthe large sample statisticalpropertiesofthe bispectral estimates became the first usable statistical test for nonlinear serial dependence. We are forever grateful to Mel Hinich for getting us involved at that time in this fascinating and fruitful endeavor. With help from Mel (sometimes as amentor, sometimes as acollaborator) we developed and applied this bispectral test in the ensuing period. The first application ofthe test was to daily stock returns {Hinich and Patterson (1982, 1985)} yielding the important discovery of substantial nonlinear serial dependence in returns, over and above the weak linear serial dependence that had been previously observed. The original manuscript met with resistance from finance journals, no doubt because finance academics were reluctant to recognize the importance of distinguishing between serial correlation and nonlinear serial dependence. In Ashley, Patterson and Hinich (1986) we examined the power and sizeofthe test in finite samples.

Market Volatility

Author : Robert J. Shiller
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262691512
Total Pages : 486 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (915 download)

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Book Synopsis Market Volatility by : Robert J. Shiller

Download or read book Market Volatility written by Robert J. Shiller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1992-01-30 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.

Investor Behavior

Author : H. Kent Baker
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118492986
Total Pages : 645 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (184 download)

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Book Synopsis Investor Behavior by : H. Kent Baker

Download or read book Investor Behavior written by H. Kent Baker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-02-10 with total page 645 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: WINNER, Business: Personal Finance/Investing, 2015 USA Best Book Awards FINALIST, Business: Reference, 2015 USA Best Book Awards Investor Behavior provides readers with a comprehensive understanding and the latest research in the area of behavioral finance and investor decision making. Blending contributions from noted academics and experienced practitioners, this 30-chapter book will provide investment professionals with insights on how to understand and manage client behavior; a framework for interpreting financial market activity; and an in-depth understanding of this important new field of investment research. The book should also be of interest to academics, investors, and students. The book will cover the major principles of investor psychology, including heuristics, bounded rationality, regret theory, mental accounting, framing, prospect theory, and loss aversion. Specific sections of the book will delve into the role of personality traits, financial therapy, retirement planning, financial coaching, and emotions in investment decisions. Other topics covered include risk perception and tolerance, asset allocation decisions under inertia and inattention bias; evidenced based financial planning, motivation and satisfaction, behavioral investment management, and neurofinance. Contributions will delve into the behavioral underpinnings of various trading and investment topics including trader psychology, stock momentum, earnings surprises, and anomalies. The final chapters of the book examine new research on socially responsible investing, mutual funds, and real estate investing from a behavioral perspective. Empirical evidence and current literature about each type of investment issue are featured. Cited research studies are presented in a straightforward manner focusing on the comprehension of study findings, rather than on the details of mathematical frameworks.