Testing for Structural Breaks in Dynamic Factor Models

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783865585004
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Testing for Structural Breaks in Dynamic Factor Models by : Jörg Breitung

Download or read book Testing for Structural Breaks in Dynamic Factor Models written by Jörg Breitung and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Tests for Parameter Instability in Dynamic Factor Models

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 67 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Tests for Parameter Instability in Dynamic Factor Models by : Xu Han

Download or read book Tests for Parameter Instability in Dynamic Factor Models written by Xu Han and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop tests for structural breaks of factor loadings in dynamic factor models. We focus on the joint null hypothesis that all factor loadings are constant over time. Because the number of factor loading parameters goes to infinity as the sample size grows, conventional tests cannot be used. Based on the fact that the presence of a structural change in factor loadings yields a structural change in second moments of factors obtained from the full sample principal component estimation, we reduce the infinite-dimensional problem into a finite-dimensional one and our statistic compares the pre- and post-break subsample second moments of estimated factors. Our test is consistent under the alternative hypothesis in which a fraction of or all factor loadings have structural changes. The Monte Carlo results show that our test has good finite-sample size and power.

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

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Publisher : OUP USA
ISBN 13 : 0195398645
Total Pages : 732 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (953 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Michael P. Clements

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Dynamic Factor Models

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Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1785603523
Total Pages : 688 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (856 download)

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Book Synopsis Dynamic Factor Models by :

Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 688 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.

Large Dimensional Factor Analysis

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Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1601981449
Total Pages : 90 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Large Dimensional Factor Analysis by : Jushan Bai

Download or read book Large Dimensional Factor Analysis written by Jushan Bai and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Large Dimensional Factor Analysis provides a survey of the main theoretical results for large dimensional factor models, emphasizing results that have implications for empirical work. The authors focus on the development of the static factor models and on the use of estimated factors in subsequent estimation and inference. Large Dimensional Factor Analysis discusses how to determine the number of factors, how to conduct inference when estimated factors are used in regressions, how to assess the adequacy pf observed variables as proxies for latent factors, how to exploit the estimated factors to test unit root tests and common trends, and how to estimate panel cointegration models.

Monitoring Structural Stability of Dynamic Factor Models

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Monitoring Structural Stability of Dynamic Factor Models by : Yu-Chin Chen

Download or read book Monitoring Structural Stability of Dynamic Factor Models written by Yu-Chin Chen and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a test for detecting out-of-sample structural change in factor-augmented regression (FAR) models, as a complement to the in-sample structural stability tests developed in recent literature. In a set-up with a large number, N, of time series whereby each has some predictive ability for the target variable, the common testing procedure is to first estimate factors from the N series using principle component analysis (PCA) - a procedure that itself introduces randomness - before testing for the stability of the predictive coefficients for the estimated factors. In the out-of-sample setting where a new observation arrives sequentially, one thus needs to account for the randomness in the successively estimated factors when monitoring stability. To do so, we introduce a rescaling mechanism to augment the fluctuation-monitoring test developed by Chu, Stinchcombe, and White (1996) for simple linear regressions. Under the null hypothesis of no structural change, we show that the proposed rescaled monitoring test asymptotically behaves as a Brownian bridge, and so the critical values derived in Chu et al. (1996) can be extended to FAR models. We also show that the rescaling test delivers a reasonable finite sample performance. As an empirical application, we use factors based on 132 macroeconomic series to predict U.S. monthly industrial production growth since 1985 and show that the rescaled test detects a clear break in the FAR predictive relationship in early 2009 after the Global Financial Crisis, whereas the traditional test delivers too many breaks throughout the sample. Detecting structural stability in real-time under FAR has clear relevance to various macro or financial forecasting and monitoring applications.

Dynamic Factor Models

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Dynamic Factor Models by : Jörg Breitung

Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Jörg Breitung and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Factor models can cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom.

Testing for a Structural Break in Dynamic Panel Data Models with Common Factors

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Testing for a Structural Break in Dynamic Panel Data Models with Common Factors by : Huanjun Zhu

Download or read book Testing for a Structural Break in Dynamic Panel Data Models with Common Factors written by Huanjun Zhu and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a method for testing for the presence of a single structural break in panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity represented by a factor error structure. The common factor approach is an appealing way to capture the effect of unobserved variables, such as skills and innate ability in studies of returns to education, common shocks and cross-sectional dependence in models of economic growth, law enforcement acts and public attitudes towards crime in statistical modelling of criminal behavior. Ignoring these variables may result in inconsistent parameter estimates and invalid inferences. We focus on the case where the time frequency of the data may be yearly and thereby the number of time series observations is small, even if the sample covers a rather long period of time. We develop a Distance type statistic based on a Method of Moments estimator that allows for unobserved common factors. Existing structural break tests proposed in the literature are not valid under these circumstances. The asymptotic properties of the test statistic are established for both known and unknown breakpoints. In our simulation study, the method performed well, both in terms of size and power, as well as in terms of successfully locating the time at which the break occurred. The method is illustrated using data from a large sample of banking institutions, providing empirical evidence on the well-known Gibrat's 'Law'

Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107196574
Total Pages : 757 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis by : Lutz Kilian

Download or read book Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis written by Lutz Kilian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-23 with total page 757 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.

Large-dimensional Panel Data Econometrics: Testing, Estimation And Structural Changes

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Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811220794
Total Pages : 167 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Large-dimensional Panel Data Econometrics: Testing, Estimation And Structural Changes by : Feng Qu

Download or read book Large-dimensional Panel Data Econometrics: Testing, Estimation And Structural Changes written by Feng Qu and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-08-24 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to fill the gap between panel data econometrics textbooks, and the latest development on 'big data', especially large-dimensional panel data econometrics. It introduces important research questions in large panels, including testing for cross-sectional dependence, estimation of factor-augmented panel data models, structural breaks in panels and group patterns in panels. To tackle these high dimensional issues, some techniques used in Machine Learning approaches are also illustrated. Moreover, the Monte Carlo experiments, and empirical examples are also utilised to show how to implement these new inference methods. Large-Dimensional Panel Data Econometrics: Testing, Estimation and Structural Changes also introduces new research questions and results in recent literature in this field.

Partial Identification in Econometrics and Related Topics

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031591100
Total Pages : 724 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Partial Identification in Econometrics and Related Topics by : Nguyen Ngoc Thach

Download or read book Partial Identification in Econometrics and Related Topics written by Nguyen Ngoc Thach and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 724 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030311503
Total Pages : 716 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data by : Peter Fuleky

Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data written by Peter Fuleky and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-28 with total page 716 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199875510
Total Pages : 732 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Michael P. Clements

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-06-29 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.

Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty

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Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 044452942X
Total Pages : 691 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty by : David E. Rapach

Download or read book Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty written by David E. Rapach and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2008-02-29 with total page 691 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.

Handbook of Econometrics

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Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444636544
Total Pages : 594 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Econometrics by :

Download or read book Handbook of Econometrics written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 594 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 7A, examines recent advances in foundational issues and "hot" topics within econometrics, such as inference for moment inequalities and estimation of high dimensional models. With its world-class editors and contributors, it succeeds in unifying leading studies of economic models, mathematical statistics and economic data. Our flourishing ability to address empirical problems in economics by using economic theory and statistical methods has driven the field of econometrics to unimaginable places. By designing methods of inference from data based on models of human choice behavior and social interactions, econometricians have created new subfields now sufficiently mature to require sophisticated literature summaries. Presents a broader and more comprehensive view of this expanding field than any other handbook Emphasizes the connection between econometrics and economics Highlights current topics for which no good summaries exist

Statistical Learning for Big Dependent Data

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119417392
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Learning for Big Dependent Data by : Daniel Peña

Download or read book Statistical Learning for Big Dependent Data written by Daniel Peña and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-03-02 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master advanced topics in the analysis of large, dynamically dependent datasets with this insightful resource Statistical Learning with Big Dependent Data delivers a comprehensive presentation of the statistical and machine learning methods useful for analyzing and forecasting large and dynamically dependent data sets. The book presents automatic procedures for modelling and forecasting large sets of time series data. Beginning with some visualization tools, the book discusses procedures and methods for finding outliers, clusters, and other types of heterogeneity in big dependent data. It then introduces various dimension reduction methods, including regularization and factor models such as regularized Lasso in the presence of dynamical dependence and dynamic factor models. The book also covers other forecasting procedures, including index models, partial least squares, boosting, and now-casting. It further presents machine-learning methods, including neural network, deep learning, classification and regression trees and random forests. Finally, procedures for modelling and forecasting spatio-temporal dependent data are also presented. Throughout the book, the advantages and disadvantages of the methods discussed are given. The book uses real-world examples to demonstrate applications, including use of many R packages. Finally, an R package associated with the book is available to assist readers in reproducing the analyses of examples and to facilitate real applications. Analysis of Big Dependent Data includes a wide variety of topics for modeling and understanding big dependent data, like: New ways to plot large sets of time series An automatic procedure to build univariate ARMA models for individual components of a large data set Powerful outlier detection procedures for large sets of related time series New methods for finding the number of clusters of time series and discrimination methods , including vector support machines, for time series Broad coverage of dynamic factor models including new representations and estimation methods for generalized dynamic factor models Discussion on the usefulness of lasso with time series and an evaluation of several machine learning procedure for forecasting large sets of time series Forecasting large sets of time series with exogenous variables, including discussions of index models, partial least squares, and boosting. Introduction of modern procedures for modeling and forecasting spatio-temporal data Perfect for PhD students and researchers in business, economics, engineering, and science: Statistical Learning with Big Dependent Data also belongs to the bookshelves of practitioners in these fields who hope to improve their understanding of statistical and machine learning methods for analyzing and forecasting big dependent data.

Handbook of Macroeconomics

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Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444594884
Total Pages : 2744 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Macroeconomics by : John B. Taylor

Download or read book Handbook of Macroeconomics written by John B. Taylor and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-11-12 with total page 2744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Macroeconomics Volumes 2A and 2B surveys major advances in macroeconomic scholarship since the publication of Volume 1 (1999), carefully distinguishing between empirical, theoretical, methodological, and policy issues, including fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies to deal with crises, unemployment, and economic growth. As this volume shows, macroeconomics has undergone a profound change since the publication of the last volume, due in no small part to the questions thrust into the spotlight by the worldwide financial crisis of 2008. With contributions from the world’s leading macroeconomists, its reevaluation of macroeconomic scholarship and assessment of its future constitute an investment worth making. Serves a double role as a textbook for macroeconomics courses and as a gateway for students to the latest research Acts as a one-of-a-kind resource as no major collections of macroeconomic essays have been published in the last decade Builds upon Volume 1 by using its section headings to illustrate just how far macroeconomic thought has evolved