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Synopsis Assessing The Economywide Impacts Of Covid 19 On Rwandas Economy Agri Food System And Poverty A Social Accounting Matrix Sam Multiplier Approach
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Book Synopsis Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach by : Aragie, Emerta
Download or read book Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach written by Aragie, Emerta and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-06-01 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences of the actions taken are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We used economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. In this brief, we present a synopsis of the results of this analysis. • During the six-week lockdown that began in March 2020, we estimate Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation. • Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of economic recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1 to 1.6 billion). • While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a no-COVID situation. • During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points over the pre-COVID situation. While these figures are encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s economic recovery will depend critically on expanding Rwanda’s social protection programs, supporting enterprises of all sizes, providing broad assistance to the agri-food system, and restoring international trade.
Book Synopsis Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri-food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach by : Aragie, Emerta
Download or read book Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri-food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach written by Aragie, Emerta and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-05-17 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We use economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. - Results show that during the six-week lockdown that began in March, Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation in the same period. - Results further show that Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of the recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1–1.6 billion). - While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a noCOVID situation. - During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points. While these figures may be encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s recovery will depend critically on the expansion of Rwanda’s social protection programs, boosting enterprises of all sizes, support to the agri-food system, and restoration of international trade.
Book Synopsis The gendered impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda: Evidence from phone surveys by : Bryan, Elizabeth
Download or read book The gendered impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda: Evidence from phone surveys written by Bryan, Elizabeth and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-09-22 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching impacts in every part of the world, including on vulnerable populations in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries. This report explores the ways in which men and women in rural areas of four countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)—Kenya, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda—experienced the COVID-19 pandemic and associated income losses, as well as their responses to the crisis. To identify and monitor the differential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women and men in rural households, IFPRI conducted phone surveys in selected regions of the four focal countries, with financial and technical support from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The surveys traced gender differences in responses to the pandemic and associated restrictions, such as choice of coping strategies, access to public assistance, and changes in the care burden for men and women.
Book Synopsis The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise by : Pauw, Karl
Download or read book The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise written by Pauw, Karl and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-06-04 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As COVID-19 spread across the globe in early 2020, governments had to make difficult policy choices to balance the socioeconomic costs of social distancing and lockdown measures, on the one hand, and the human costs of increased morbidity and mortality of an unchecked pandemic, on the other. The challenge was particularly daunting for developing countries with their often illequipped and underfunded health systems coupled with general skepticism about the effectiveness of economic restrictions to curb viral spread, especially in densely populated informal urban communities (The Economist 2020). Poorer developing country populations also tend to be less resilient to income shocks, while the social protection measures needed to mitigate against income losses are costly. With developing country governments already heavily indebted before the pandemic (Onyekwena and Ekeruche 2019), and with further anticipated losses in tax revenues due to COVID-related economic restrictions, their ability to finance palliative measures without sacrificing much-needed, longer-term public investments has remained a major concern.
Book Synopsis Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach by : Diao, Xinshen
Download or read book Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-06-29 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Rwanda, as in other countries, different types of households will experience the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic differently. We use a microsimulation approach to highlight the importance of these differences and to draw attention to the diversified livelihood strategies of Rwandan households in order to fully understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status. Our approach complements macro-level assessments of COVID-19’s economic impacts, focusing on the contribution of the income sources, asset holdings, and location (urban/rural) of households to understanding these differential effects.
Book Synopsis Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery by : Aragie, Emerta
Download or read book Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery written by Aragie, Emerta and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-12-09 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.
Book Synopsis The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis by : Baulch, Bob
Download or read book The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis written by Baulch, Bob and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-12-21 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This working paper builds on a report which was prepared for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference in November 2020. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. We also model the impact of a faster and a slower lifting of restrictions and external shocks during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. With faster easing of restrictions, cumulative GDP gains turn positive by the third quarter of 2021 under the fast recovery scenario and exceed their pre-COVID-19 levels by US$178 million before the end of 2021. However, under the slow recovery scenario, Malawi’s GDP continues to decline until the end of 2020 before recovering during quarters 1 and 4 of 2021. However, this is not sufficient to wipe out the losses in quarters 2 to 4 of 2020, resulting in cumulative losses under the slow recovery scenario of US$332 million over the two years. Relative to the without COVID-19 scenario, US$937 million of GDP is lost under the fast recovery scenario and US$1,447 million under the slow recovery one. As both the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic situation in Malawi are highly uncertain at the present time, the results reported in this paper should be regarded as interim estimates, which are subject to revision as the underlying health and economic data change.
Book Synopsis Estimating the economic costs of COVID-19 in Nigeria by : Andam, Kwaw S.
Download or read book Estimating the economic costs of COVID-19 in Nigeria written by Andam, Kwaw S. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-07-21 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we analyze the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policies adopted to curtail the spread of the disease in Nigeria. We carry out simulations using a multiplier model based on the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Nigeria, which includes supply-use tables for 284 goods and services. The pandemic’s global reach and impact on the global economy combined with the response policies in Nigeria represent a large, sudden shock to the country’s economy. The SAM multiplier model is well-suited for measuring the short-term direct and indirect results of this type of shock because the SAM represents both the structure of the economy and the interactions among economic actors via commodity and factor markets. Our analysis focuses on the five-week lockdown implemented by the federal government across the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja and Lagos and Ogun states from late March to early May 2020, the federal lockdown for Kano from mid-April, and the state-level lockdowns that were implemented from mid-April for around seven weeks in Akwa Ibom, Borno, Ekiti, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, and Taraba states. We estimate that during the lockdown periods Nigeria’s GDP suffered a 34.1 percent loss due to COVID-19, amounting to USD 16 billion, with two-thirds of the losses coming from the services sector. The agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Nigerians, suffered a 13.1 percent loss in output (USD 1.2 billion). Although primary agricultural activities were excluded from the direct restrictions on economic activities imposed in the lockdown zones, the broader agri-food system was affected indirectly because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. We estimate that households lost on average 33 percent of their incomes during the period, with the heaviest losses occurring for rural non-farm and for urban households. The economic impacts of COVID-19 include a 14-percentage point temporary increase in the poverty headcount rate for Nigeria, implying that 27 million additional people fell below the poverty line during lockdown. Lastly, we consider economic recovery scenarios as the COVID-19 policies are being relaxed during the latter part of 2020. Our findings have implications for understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, for policy design during the recovery period, and for planning future disease prevention measures while protecting livelihoods and maintaining economic growth.
Book Synopsis The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis by : Baulch, Bob
Download or read book The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis written by Baulch, Bob and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-11-21 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper has been written for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium- erm paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a SAM multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses.
Book Synopsis The short-term impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy through external sector channels: An economywide multiplier model analysis by : Aragie, Emerta
Download or read book The short-term impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy through external sector channels: An economywide multiplier model analysis written by Aragie, Emerta and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-12-09 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to considerably affect the Ethiopian economy directly and indirectly due to global shocks and to the different restrictive preventative measures the country is taking. We analyze these economic effects using multisector economywide income multiplier models built on the two latest Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed for Ethiopia. Three external sector channels are the focus of the analysis: commodity exports, strategic imports, and remittances. Results indicate that in the absence of any policy responses, the Ethiopian economy is expected to experience a loss of approximately 4.3 to 5.5 percent of its annual GDP due to exports, strategic imports, and remittances that are one-third lower relative to the no-COVID situation over a period of six-months. This translates into estimated reductions in labor income of between 4.2 and 5.2 percent. The SAM multiplier model estimates also imply that these negative shocks lead to household income losses that amount to between 3.9 and 6.4 percent. In particular, the urban poor will be the most affected as they lose real incomes in the range of 6.6 to 8.5 percent. These income losses are estimated to result in a 3.5 percentage point rise in the national poverty headcount.
Book Synopsis The economic costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a simulation exercise for Ghana by : Amewu, Sena
Download or read book The economic costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a simulation exercise for Ghana written by Amewu, Sena and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-06-12 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective in this paper is to estimate the economic costs of COVID-19 policies and external shocks in a developing country context, with a focus on agri-food system impacts. Ghana is selected as a case study. Ghana recorded its first two cases of COVID-19 infection on 12 March 2020. The government responded by gradually introducing social distancing measures, travel restrictions, border closures, and eventually a partial, two-week “partial” lockdown in the country’s largest metropolitan areas of Accra and Kumasi. Social distancing measures have been enforced nationwide and include bans on conferences, workshops, and sporting and religious events, as well as the closure of bars and nightclubs. All educational institutions are also closed. The partial lockdown measures in urban areas directed all residents to remain home except for essential business, prohibited non-essential inter-city travel and transport, and only essential manufacturing and services operations were permitted to continue (The Presidency 2020). At the time the lockdown was announced, Ghana’s Ministry of Finance revised its GDP growth estimate for 2020 downwards from 6.8 to 1.5 percent (MoF 2020), although the Minister warned that growth could fall further if lockdown measures were extended. The lockdown was initially extended for a third week but was officially lifted on 20 April. Social distancing measures remain in place nationwide, although a gradual easing of restrictions commenced in June. Ghana’s borders remain closed at the time of writing.
Book Synopsis Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Myanmar: A microsimulation approach by : Diao, Xinshen
Download or read book Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Myanmar: A microsimulation approach written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-08-03 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With policy measures imposed by governments around the world to contain and prevent the spread of COVID 19, global and domestic economic activities and trade flows have been interrupted. The unexpected shocks of COVID 19 negatively affect not only Myanmar’s economy, but also the livelihoods of Myanmar households. This Working Paper assesses such impacts at the household level using a microsimulation model based on the Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS) conducted in 2015.
Book Synopsis COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later by : McDermott, John
Download or read book COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later written by McDermott, John and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-03-07 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected. In COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later, the editors bring together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub to examine the pandemic’s effects on poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. This volume presents key lessons learned on food security and food system resilience in 2020 and 2021 and assesses the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis. Looking forward, the authors consider how the pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Economic Impacts of the First Wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan Using a SAM Multiplier Model by : Muhammad Saad Moeen
Download or read book Estimating the Economic Impacts of the First Wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan Using a SAM Multiplier Model written by Muhammad Saad Moeen and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Poverty, Inequality and Development by : Alain de Janvry
Download or read book Poverty, Inequality and Development written by Alain de Janvry and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-06-09 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of essays honors a remarkable man and his work. Erik Thorbecke has made significant contributions to the microeconomic and the macroeconomic analysis of poverty, inequality and development, ranging from theory to empirics and policy. The essays in this volume display the same range. As a collection they make the fundamental point that deep understanding of these phenomena requires both the micro and the macro perspectives together, utilizing the strengths of each but also the special insights that come when the two are linked together. After an overview section which contains the introductory chapter and a chapter examining the historical roots of Erik Thorbecke's motivations, the essays in this volume are grouped into four parts, each part identifying a major strand of Erik's work—Measurement of Poverty and Inequality, Micro Behavior and Market Failure, SAMs and CGEs, and Institutions and Development. The range of topics covered in the essays, written by leading authorities in their own areas, highlight the extraordinary depth and breadth of Erik Thorbecke's influence in research and policy on poverty, inequality and development. Acknowledgements These papers were presented at a conference in honor of Erik Thorbecke held at Cornell University on October 10-11, 2003. The conference was supported by the funds of the H. E. Babcock Chair in Food, Nutrition and Public Policy, and the T. H. Lee Chair in World Affairs at Cornell University.
Book Synopsis Short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy: Initial results by : Baulch, Bob
Download or read book Short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy: Initial results written by Baulch, Bob and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-06-29 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Report describes the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of the COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020. This analysis has been undertaken in order to inform the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi and represents a first pass attempt to measure the short-term economic impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economic. It should be noted that, unlike NPC (2020) our estimates of the economic impact of the COVID-19 on the Malawian economy do not extend beyond 2020 and do not try to set a value on loss of life or life-years. They do, however, allow for detailed breakdown of the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on different sectors and sub-sectors of the Malawian economy.
Book Synopsis Impacts of COVID-19 on People's Food Security: Foundations for a More Resilient Food System by : Christophe Béné
Download or read book Impacts of COVID-19 on People's Food Security: Foundations for a More Resilient Food System written by Christophe Béné and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
