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Symmetric And Asymmetric Causality Between Current Account Balance And Oil Prices The Case Of Brics T
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Book Synopsis Symmetric and asymmetric causality between current account balance and oil prices: The case of BRICS-T by : Mustafa Kırca
Download or read book Symmetric and asymmetric causality between current account balance and oil prices: The case of BRICS-T written by Mustafa Kırca and published by Litres. This book was released on 2022-01-29 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main aim of the study is to examine the symmetric and asymmetric relationship between oil prices and the current account balances of BRICS-T countries covering the period from 2003:Q1 to 2017:Q2. In the study, Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) for the symmetric causality test and Hatemi-J (2012) for the asymmetric causality test are used to test the relationships between the variables. The symmetrical causality test results support that there is unidirectional causality from Brazil’s current account balances to oil prices and there is unidirectional causality from oil prices to Turkey’s current account balances. On the other hand, asymmetrical causality test results support that there are many causal relationships between the variables shock. There is causality from positive oil price shock to South Africa’s positive current account balances shock, from negative oil price shock to Russia, China, and Turkey’s negative current account balances shocks and to Russia, India, and Turkey’s positive current account balances shocks. Besides, there is causality from Brazil’s negative current account balances shock to both positive and negative oil prices shocks. Also, it is seen that there is causality from India’s positive current account balances shock to negative oil prices shock.Policy-makers should consider the impact of the shocks in oil prices on the current account to evaluate any policy, especially for Russia, China, India and Turkey.
Author :Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti Publisher :International Finance Section Princeton University Internati ISBN 13 : Total Pages :90 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (129 download)
Book Synopsis Current-account Sustainability by : Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book Current-account Sustainability written by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Finance Section Princeton University Internati. This book was released on 1996 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study presents a notion of current-account sustainability that explicitly considers, in addition to intertemporal solvency, a willingness to pay and to lend. It argues that this notion of sustainability provides a useful framework for understanding the variety of country experiences with protracted current-account imbalances. Based on this notion, the authors identify a number of potential sustainability indicators related to the structure of the economy and the economic policy stance. They use these indicators in the evaluation of the experience of a number of countries that have run persistent current-account imbalances and ask whether they help to discriminate between countries that underwent an external crisis and those that did not.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498398588 Total Pages :230 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2016 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.
Book Synopsis External Adjustment by : Maurice Obstfeld
Download or read book External Adjustment written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website
Book Synopsis The Washington Consensus Reconsidered by : Narcís Serra
Download or read book The Washington Consensus Reconsidered written by Narcís Serra and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2008-04-24 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together many of the leading international figures in development studies, such as Jose Antonio Ocampo, Paul Krugman, Dani Rodrik, Joseph Stiglitz, Daniel Cohen, Olivier Blanchard, Deepak Nayyar and John Williamson to reconsider and propose alternative development policies to the Washington Consensus. Covering a wide range of issues from macro-stabilization to trade and the future of global governance, this important volume makes a real contribution to this important and ongoing debate. The volume begins by introducing the Washington Consensus, discussing how it was originally formulated, what it left out, and how it was later interpreted, and sets the stage for a formulation of a new development framework in the post-Washington Consensus era. It then goes on to analyze and offer differing perspectives and potential solutions to a number of key development issues, some which were addressed by the Washington Consensus and others which were not. The volume concludes by looking toward formulating new policy frameworks and offers possible reforms to the current system of global governance.
Author :Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico Publisher : ISBN 13 :9789291319626 Total Pages :0 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (196 download)
Book Synopsis Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs by : Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico
Download or read book Market Volatility and Foreign Exchange Intervention in EMEs written by Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 by : World Bank Publications
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 written by World Bank Publications and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-01-26 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As in previous years, global growth disappointed in 2014, but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies and developing countries. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in highincome countries, low oil prices, and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies. However, continued weak global trade growth and gradually tightening financial conditions will constrain the recovery. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes four essays that analyze key challenges and opportunities currently confronting developing countries: fiscal policy as a countercyclical policy tool; causes and implications of cheap oil; weak trade that fails to act as an engine of growth; and remittances as a means of steadying consumption during sudden stops. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.
Book Synopsis Global Shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture by : Naoyuki Yoshino
Download or read book Global Shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture written by Naoyuki Yoshino and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asian economies continue to be subject to new shocks: US monetary policy tightening, the adoption of negative-interest-rate policies by central banks all over the world, the slowdown of the People's Republic of China, and the sharp drop in oil and other commodity prices. All these highlight the vulnerability of the region to volatile trade and capital flows even as the global and Asian regional financial architecture evolves. This volume analyzes the vulnerabilities of Asian economies to external economic and financial shocks and assesses the performance of Asian regional institutions in financial surveillance and cooperation. It also evaluates ongoing reforms of the global financial architecture, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Financial Stability Board, and reviews the experience of the "Troika" (European Commission, European Central Bank, and the IMF) in managing the European sovereign debt and banking crisis. Based on these, the book develops valuable recommendations to strengthen the Asian regional financial architecture and improve cooperation with global multilateral institutions.
Book Synopsis Strengthening China's and India's Trade and Investment Ties to the Middle East and North Africa by :
Download or read book Strengthening China's and India's Trade and Investment Ties to the Middle East and North Africa written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2009 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China and India's spectacular economic rise over the last two decades has accelerated their trade and investment flows with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), particularly with the oil-producing countries. And while these flows are still small, China and India's presence in the region is on the rise. This report focuses on the following questions: what have been evolution and the impact of MENA's trade and investment relations with China and India? what actions can be taken to maximize the benefits from these relations and to enhance MENA's international integration? The main findings indicate that the region as a whole has benefited from the rise of China and India in terms of better terms of trade, significant increases in oil and gas exports, and cheaper imports. However, producers of industrial goods have been negatively-and in a few cases severely-affected by competition with the two Asian countries in both third and domestic markets. While China and India are investing more in MENA, they are contributing very little to job creation or to the transfer and diffusion of technology. Faster growth in the two Asian countries-and the associated higher demand for energy-will increase revenues from oil and the difficult choices associated with their management. For the labor-abundant, non oil-producing countries, competition with China and India will increase. But the lack of competitive manufacturing industries and services, the insufficient attention given in the past to building technological capabilities and promoting openness and entrepreneurship are constraining their ability to respond to competition. They need to accelerate productivity to tackle unemployment, especially among youth. This may require the broader institutional changes seen in China and India-suggesting the importance of a pragmatic reform agenda that can accelerate productivity, trade, and investment in the region.
Book Synopsis Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World by : Olivier Cattaneo
Download or read book Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World written by Olivier Cattaneo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book looks to address the following questions in a post-crisis world: How have lead firms responded to the crisis? Have they changed their traditional supply chain strategy and relocated and/or outsourced part of their production? How will those changes affect developing countries? What should be the policy responses to these changes?
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Crude Oil by : Basil Oberholzer
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Crude Oil written by Basil Oberholzer and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2017-07-28 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global crude oil market is critically important in many respects. It is the fuel that drives the global economy and, as such, is the focus of climate policies. Moreover, crude oil is the basis of a tradable financial asset. It is therefore connected to several outstanding macroeconomic developments of recent years, including financial market fluctuations, the financial crisis and the exceptional conduct of monetary policy. This book investigates the impacts of monetary policy and the financial system on the global crude oil market. Furthermore, it outlines how monetary policy may also be used to guarantee stability and to contribute to ecological sustainability.
Book Synopsis Oil Shocks and External Balances by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Oil Shocks and External Balances written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-05-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global perspective. In addition to the U.S., the Euro area and Japan, we consider a number of country groups including oil exporters and middle-income oil-importing economies. We find that the effect of oil shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the nonoil trade balance, and differs systematically between the U.S. and other oil importing countries. Using the Lane-Milesi-Ferretti NFA data set, we document the presence of large and systematic (if not always statistically significant) valuation effects in response to oil shocks, not only for the U.S., but also for other oil-importing economies and for oil exporters. Our estimates suggest that increased international financial integration will tend to cushion the effect of oil shocks on NFA positions for major oil exporters and the U.S., but may amplify it for other oil importers.
Book Synopsis The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy by : Mr.Paul Cashin
Download or read book The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-23 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.
Book Synopsis Global Value Chains in a Changing World by : Deborah Kay Elms
Download or read book Global Value Chains in a Changing World written by Deborah Kay Elms and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of papers by some of the world's leading specialists on global value chains (GVCs). It examines how GVCs have evolved and the challenges they face in a rapidly changing world. The approach is multi-disciplinary, with contributions from economists, political scientists, supply chain management specialists, practitioners and policy-makers. Co-published with the Fung Global Institute and the Temasek
Book Synopsis Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate by : Robert A. Amano
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate written by Robert A. Amano and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Industrial Development for the 21st Century by : David O'Connor
Download or read book Industrial Development for the 21st Century written by David O'Connor and published by Zed Books. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With very few exceptions, industrial development has been central to the process of structural transformation which characterises economic development. Industrial Development for the 21st century examines the new challenges and opportunities arising from globalization, technological change and new international trade rules. The first part focuses on key sectors with potential for developing countries, focussing on two key themes. First, traditional points of entry for late industrializers - like textiles and clothing - have become even more intensely competitive than ever before, requiring more innovative adaptive strategies for success. Second, countries now recognize that manufacturing does not exhaust the opportunities for producing high value-added goods and services for international markets. Knowledge intensity is increasing across all spheres of economic activity, including agriculture and services, which can offer promising development paths for some developing countries. The final section addresses social and environmental aspects of industrial development. Labour-intensive, but not necessarily other patterns of industrial development can be highly effective in poverty reduction though further industrial progress may be less labour-intensive. A range of policies can promote industrial energy and materials efficiency, often with positive impacts on firms' financial performance as well as the environment. Promoting materials recycling and reuse is an effective, if indirect means of conserving resources. Finally, the growth of multinational interest in corporate social responsibility is traced, with consideration given to both the barriers and opportunities this can pose for developing country enterprises linked to global supply chains.
Book Synopsis The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets by : Bassam Fattouh
Download or read book The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
