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Sustainability Of External Imbalances
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Book Synopsis Sustainability of External Imbalances by : Angélique Herzberg
Download or read book Sustainability of External Imbalances written by Angélique Herzberg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-08-28 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the mid-1990s, sustainability of large and persistent current account positions have been attracting much attention from policy makers and economists alike. Alongside global imbalances, sustainability of imbalances within the euro area, which started widening shortly after the introduction of the euro, raised much concern. While there exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on sustainability of external imbalances, a systematic survey has been lacking so far. Angélique Herzberg fills this gap by examining a broad range of established sustainability measures concerning their applicability to the various global and intra-euro imbalances of the recent past. Furthermore, the author examines the existence of feedback effects from an economy ́s net international investment position to its trade balance.
Book Synopsis Assessing External Sustainability in India by : Mr.Tim Callen
Download or read book Assessing External Sustainability in India written by Mr.Tim Callen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the solvency and sustainability of India’s external imbalances and analyzes the optimality of its capital flows. We use three approaches: an intertemporal model of the current account that allows for capital controls; a composite model of macroeconomic indicators that yields probabilities of future balance of payments crises; and scenarios that examine the path of the current account consistent with the stabilization of India’s external liability-to-GDP ratio. The results indicate that India’s intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied and that the path of its current account imbalances is sustainable, with some support for the optimality (given capital controls) of its external borrowing.
Book Synopsis The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery by : Vassilis Monastiriotis
Download or read book The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery written by Vassilis Monastiriotis and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High and persistent external imbalances have become a key concern in the global economy, particularly after the Global Financial Crisis. The issue is particularly pertinent in Europe, as it poses challenges not only for its economic cohesion but also for its political coherence and the viability of the European project at large. In this study we investigate the sustainability of external imbalances in 15 countries from what is increasingly seen as the European periphery over the period 2000-2012 using quartely data. We apply a range of methods and compare across them to obtain a comprehensive picture of the patterns characterising external imbalances in this area. We find that external imbalances are on the whole large and, despite some significant adjustments in the post-crisis period, they continue to follow paths that are possibly unsustainable. Our results show a higher likelihood of confirming sustainability when looking separately at the current account and the net foreign asset position than when looking jointly at the trade and capital accounts (and thus at the overall fiscal reaction function - Bohn, 2007). This suggests, albeit tentatively, problems and vulnerabilities that go beyond simple concerns about price competitiveness and the trade performance of the countries under study.
Book Synopsis Assessing the Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Union by : António Afonso
Download or read book Assessing the Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Union written by António Afonso and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We assess the sustainability of the current account (CA) balance, net international investment position (NIIP) and net external debt (NED) in a sample of EU countries using two complementary approaches. First, we employ both time-series and panel-data stationarity tests of current account balance-to-GDP ratios as well as cointegration tests of exports and imports of goods and services. Second, we assess the level of trade balance that stabilizes the NIIP and the NED. We find that there is sustainability of the CA balance mainly in a few surplus countries whereas there is more concern about the sustainability of the NIIP or NED in countries with a credit position than in countries with a debit position. Both approaches are consistent with each other given the relationship between flows and stocks, the existence of important structural breaks, and valuation effects via the exchange rate.
Book Synopsis G7 Current Account Imbalances by : Richard H. Clarida
Download or read book G7 Current Account Imbalances written by Richard H. Clarida and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current account deficit of the United States is more than six percent of its gross domestic product—an all-time high. And the rest of the world, including other G7 countries such as Japan and Germany, must collectively run current account surpluses to finance this deficit. How long can such unevenness between imports and exports be sustained, and what form might their eventual reconciliation take? Putting forth scenarios ranging from a gradual correction to a crash landing for the dollar, G7 Current Account Imbalances brings together economists from around the globe to consider the origins, status, and future of those disparities. An esteemed group of collaborators here examines the role of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the history of previous episodes of current account adjustments, and the possibility of the Euro surpassing the dollar as the leading international reserve currency. Though there are areas of broad agreement—that the imbalances will ultimately decline and that currency revaluations will be part of the solution—many areas of contention remain regarding both the dangers of imbalances and the possible forms of adjustment. This volume will be of tremendous value to economists, politicians, and business leaders alike as they look to the future of the G7 economies.
Book Synopsis Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? by :
Download or read book Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Quest for National and Global Economic Stability by : Wietze Eizenga
Download or read book The Quest for National and Global Economic Stability written by Wietze Eizenga and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-10-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Former students of Dr H. J. Witteveen and many of those who collaborated with him in the past decades have decided a while ago that his great scientific and social merits are ample reason for presenting him with a Liber Amicorum. The fortieth anniversary of his appointment as professor at the Netherlands School of Economics in Rotterdam in the Spring of 1988 seemed a suitable time for presentation. For this purpose a committee was formed consisting of the members listed below. The last three of these also act as editorial committee of this anniversary volume. The topic the editorial committee chose is 'The quest for national and global economic stability'; this topic has always attracted Dr Witteveen's special attention and is in fact the common theme of his publications and speeches. In compiling this volume, the editorial committee tried to give expression to the three fields in which Dr Witt eve en developed his main activities: university, politics and international economic organizations. The committee is deeply grateful to the authors who promised and supplied their contributions with great enthusiasm. All contributions were completed before August 1, 1987.
Book Synopsis Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals by : Luiz R. de Mello
Download or read book Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals written by Luiz R. de Mello and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Large shifts in countries' external current account positions can be disruptive, often reflecting sudden stops in the flows of external finance and leading to exchange rate and banking crises. As a result, an empirical literature has emerged on the sustainability of, and the determinants of large swings in, current account positions. Further light is shed on this issue by testing for the presence of unit roots in the current account balance-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios of a large set of mature and emerging-market economies using a methodology that allows for structural breaks in levels and trends. A chronology is constructed of current account reversals that is consistent with sustainability of external positions and it is used to estimate the factors explaining the likelihood and magnitude of such reversals by utilising a selection model with ordered probit in the selection stage. It is found that most of the factors that explain the probability of reversals, such as trends in capital flows, in the budget balance and in external positions, also influence their magnitude, but there are a few exceptions. For instance, the stance of monetary policy and the magnitude of external imbalances prior to a reversal seem to be more powerful predictors of the probability of reversals than of their magnitude.
Author :Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti Publisher :International Finance Section Princeton University Internati ISBN 13 : Total Pages :90 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (129 download)
Book Synopsis Current-account Sustainability by : Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book Current-account Sustainability written by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Finance Section Princeton University Internati. This book was released on 1996 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study presents a notion of current-account sustainability that explicitly considers, in addition to intertemporal solvency, a willingness to pay and to lend. It argues that this notion of sustainability provides a useful framework for understanding the variety of country experiences with protracted current-account imbalances. Based on this notion, the authors identify a number of potential sustainability indicators related to the structure of the economy and the economic policy stance. They use these indicators in the evaluation of the experience of a number of countries that have run persistent current-account imbalances and ask whether they help to discriminate between countries that underwent an external crisis and those that did not.
Book Synopsis Current Account Sustainability by : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book Current Account Sustainability written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-10-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of developing countries have run large and persistent current account deficits in both the late seventies/early eighties and in the early nineties, raising the issue of whether these persistent imbalances are sustainable. This paper puts forward a notion of current account sustainability and compares the experience of three Latin American countries-Chile, Colombia Mexico-and three East Asian countries-Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. It identifies a number of potential sustainability indicators and discusses their usefulness in predicting external crises.
Book Synopsis External Sustainability by : César Calderón
Download or read book External Sustainability written by César Calderón and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The 1994 crisis in Mexico, developments in East Asia, and persistent turmoil in world financial markets have dramatized the role of external imbalances in macroeconomic crises. Some believe that the current account should be kept from rising beyond a "sustainable" level, some that a current account surplus is the only solid external position. Can those rules of thumb be justified analytically?"--Cover.
Book Synopsis Current Account Imbalances by : Willi Semmler
Download or read book Current Account Imbalances written by Willi Semmler and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this paper is to analyze the external debt of three euro area economies, Italy, Spain, and Germany. To study the effect of debt on the investment-consumption dynamics in those countries, we first discuss the causes, sources, and adjustment processes of current account deficits in industrialized economies, with a particular focus on the Eurozone member states. We then introduce new empirical measures of sustainability. Instead of using the common measure of external debt over GDP, we use debt over assets. To study the dynamics of external debt sustainability we use an intertemporal model of finite time horizon, which we numerically solve through the method of Non-linear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) method. Using our numerical solution method, we provide a calibration of the external debt sustainability for Italy, Spain, and Germany. In the calibration of our model for those countries we also measure sustainability by the debt to asset ratio and show that the periphery economies moved toward a slow moving debt crisis, whereas Germany moved into a stable environment. Yet, the latter is likely to be affected by the former in the long run.
Book Synopsis Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits by : Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits written by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper puts forward a notion of current account sustainability that explicitly takes into account willingness to pay and willingness to lend in addition to intertemporal solvency. It argues that this notion of sustainability provides a better framework for understanding the variety of country experiences with protracted current account imbalances. Based on this notion, we identify a number of operational indicators related to the structure of the economy, the economic policy stance, and political economy factors. We use these sustainability indicators to evaluate the experience of a number of countries that ran persistent current account imbalances, and derive policy implications consistent with our notion of sustainability.
Book Synopsis Assessing External Sustainability in India by : Tim Callen
Download or read book Assessing External Sustainability in India written by Tim Callen and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the solvency and sustainability of India's external imbalances and analyzes the optimality of its capital flows. We use three approaches: an intertemporal model of the current account that allows for capital controls; a composite model of macroeconomic indicators that yields probabilities of future balance of payments crises; and scenarios that examine the path of the current account consistent with the stabilization of India's external liability-to-GDP ratio. The results indicate that India's intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied and that the path of its current account imbalances is sustainable, with some support for the optimality (given capital controls) of its external borrowing.
Book Synopsis Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? by :
Download or read book Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Multicointegration Analysis of the Sustainability of Foreign Debt by : Lori L. Leachman
Download or read book Multicointegration Analysis of the Sustainability of Foreign Debt written by Lori L. Leachman and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using the multicointegration framework suggested by Granger and Lee (1989, 1990) and developed in Engsted, Gonzalo and Haldrup (1997) and Haldrup (1997) this study explores the long-run relationship between components of the U.S. current account during two periods, 1947:i-1973:iv and 1974:i-1994:ii. The paper develops the concept of sustainability of external imbalances in an environment that is non-deterministic and characterized by uncertainty. The sustainability criteria are related to multicointegration. Evidence consistent with sustainable intertemporal external budgeting in the fixed exchange rate era is presented. In the post Bretton Woods period there is no support for sustainable external budgeting. Policy issues and factors that affect sustainability are discussed.
Book Synopsis Intertemporal Sustainability of Current Account Imbalances by : Tarlok Singh
Download or read book Intertemporal Sustainability of Current Account Imbalances written by Tarlok Singh and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study estimates the intertemporal model for the relationship between exports and imports and examines the sustainability of current account deficits (CADs) and the validity of intertemporal budget constraint for 24 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS)-based two-step Engle and Granger test, the cointegration regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test, and the Stock-Watson test performed on the one-regime model with time-invariant parameters and no structural break provide mixed support for the presence of cointegration between exports and imports. The recursive least squares-based cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM) and the cumulative sum of squares of recursive residuals (CUSUMSQ) tests and the OLS-based Andrews-Quandt (AQ) and Andrews - Ploberger (AP) tests suggest the presence of structural breaks in the long-run relationship between exports and imports for a number of countries. The end-of-sample new cointegration breakdown tests performed on the OLS, fully modified OLS, and full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of the model suggest the presence of cointegration between exports and imports for most countries. The dominant support for cointegration between trade flows points toward the sustainability of CADs and the validity of intertemporal budget constraint. The macroeconomic stabilization policies seem to have been effective in correcting the market failures and maintaining the steady-state equilibrium relationship between trade flows in the sample countries. The findings of this study have important implications for empirical research. The structural breaks in the cointegrating vector could occur even over the short time periods and at any point in time. It is essentially important to assess the sustainability of the external position in the presence of long-period as well as short-period breaks in the cointegrating vector.
