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Summary Thinking Fast And Slow In Less Than 30 Minutes
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Book Synopsis Summary Thinking Fast and Slow in Less Than 30 Minutes by : Book Summary
Download or read book Summary Thinking Fast and Slow in Less Than 30 Minutes written by Book Summary and published by . This book was released on 2016-03-22 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman | Book Summary In this book, you'll learn how your mind comes to a conclusion based upon previous results and statistics. You'll learn how to better control your emotions and how to judge why you make the decisions you do. For example, you might find that whenever you think about a friend you'll think of a particular memory related to that person. You'll learn in this book that this is an automatic reaction of System One, and then System Two analyses the memory to remember the conversations or exact experiences.This book, if interpreted correctly, will teach you to have a greater level of understanding about yourself so that you can judge why you say, think, and do, providing insight into the things you do in various scenarios. Here Is A Preview Of What You'll Learn... 2 Systems, One Mind Enhance your Mental Abilities Is Your Personal Halo Shining Bright? $2 Today, or $4 Tomorrow Do You Remember Now? Conclusion Scroll Up and Click on "buy now with 1-Click" to Download Your Copy Right Now ************Tags: thinking fast and slow, thinking fast and slow daniel kahneman, daniel kahneman, thinking, psycology, daniel kahneman books, daniel kahneman thinking fast and slow
Book Synopsis Thinking Fast and Slow by : Book Summary
Download or read book Thinking Fast and Slow written by Book Summary and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2015-10-30 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman | Book SummaryNOTE: This is a summary of the book and NOT the original book.You'll learn about the System One and Two Theory, which is the theory about our mental behaviours and patterns. System One is the sector of your mind that controls knee jerk reactions and memories, whilst System Two controls the analytic tasks that your brain needs to undertake.In this book, you'll learn how your mind comes to a conclusion based upon previous results and statistics. You'll learn how to better control your emotions and how to judge why you make the decisions you do. For example, you might find that whenever you think about a friend you'll think of a particular memory related to that person. You'll learn in this book that this is an automatic reaction of System One, and then System Two analyses the memory to remember the conversations or exact experiences. This book, if interpreted correctly, will teach you to have a greater level of understanding about yourself so that you can judge why you say, think, and do, providing insight into the things you do in various scenarios.Sound like your kind of thing? Sound intriguing?I think so, too! Read on!Here Is A Preview Of What You'll Learn... Two Systems, One Mind Enhance Your Mental Abilities Is Your Personal Halo Shining Bright? $2 Today or $4 Tomorrow Do You Remember Now? Takeaways From Each Chapter Examples Of How Things Can Apply To Your Life Scroll Up and Click on "buy now with 1-Click" to Download Your Copy Right Now________________________________________Tags: thinking fast and slow, daniel kahneman, problem solving, strategic planning
Book Synopsis Thinking, Fast and Slow by : Daniel Kahneman
Download or read book Thinking, Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.
Book Synopsis Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman - A 30-minute Summary by : Instaread Summaries
Download or read book Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman - A 30-minute Summary written by Instaread Summaries and published by Instaread Summaries. This book was released on 2014-10-21 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: PLEASE NOTE: This is a summary of the book and NOT the original book. Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman - A 30-minute Summary Inside this Instaread Summary: • Overview of the entire book • Introduction to the important people in the book • Summary and analysis of all the chapters in the book • Key Takeaways of the book • A Reader's Perspective Preview of this summary: Introduction In this book Daniel Kahneman hopes to identify and understand errors of judgment and choice. He wants to provide a richer and more accurate vocabulary to discuss these errors. He worked with his colleague, Amos Tversky, doing research on intuitive statistics. The two of them had already concluded in an earlier seminar that their own intuitions were lacking. Their subjective judgments were biased, they were too willing to believe research findings based on inadequate evidence, and they collected too few observations in their own research. The goal of their study was to find out whether other researchers had this problem as well. Kahneman and Tversky found that participants in their studies ignored the relevant statistical facts and relied exclusively on resemblance. They used resemblance as a heuristic (rule of thumb) to simplify things when making a difficult judgment. Relying on this heuristic caused predictable biases (systematic errors) in their predictions. The research partners learned that people tend to determine the importance of issues by how easy they are retrieved from their memory. This is brought about in large part by the extent of coverage of the issues in the media. Kahneman presents a view of how the mind works, drawing on recent developments in cognitive and social psychology. He explains the differences between fast (intuitive) thinking and slow (deliberate) thinking. People have a limitation in their minds: an excessive confidence in what they think they know...
Book Synopsis SUMMARY - Thinking, Fast And Slow By Daniel Kahneman by : Shortcut Edition
Download or read book SUMMARY - Thinking, Fast And Slow By Daniel Kahneman written by Shortcut Edition and published by Shortcut Edition. This book was released on 2021-05-31 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: * Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. *As you read this summary, you will learn what the author understood from the many experiences he had with the way we think and make decisions. He carried out these experiments with the help of psychologists and economists. *You will also discover : that the result of these analyses has made it possible to determine two systems of thought; that intuition and reflection are two separate functions; that very often we act without thinking and that the decisions we make "without thinking" are not necessarily bad; that the optimism inherent in human nature leads us towards capitalism; that decision-making involves both systems of thought. *The purpose of this book is to distinguish between intuition and reflection, the "two speeds of thought" that Daniel Kahneman calls System 1 (intuition) and System 2 (reflection). *Without going so far as to say that Man has two brains, he details, with the help of his experiences, the capital differences of these two ways of thinking and shows that these two systems can sometimes be in competition but also prove to be complementary. Daniel Kahneman specifies that most of his research was done with Amos Tversky, an Israeli psychologist who has since passed away. *Other psychologists call this "Fast Thinking" (intuition) and "Slow Thinking" (reflection) but the author prefers to call the two systems because their processes are very different. It is these two systems that will be analyzed in this book. His experiments do not necessarily follow a logic of sequence and do not necessarily have links between them. *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!
Book Synopsis A 30-minute Summary of Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow by : InstaRead Summaries Staff
Download or read book A 30-minute Summary of Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow written by InstaRead Summaries Staff and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: PLEASE NOTE: This is a summary of the book and NOT the original book. Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman - A 30-minute Summary Inside this Instaread Summary: * Overview of the entire book * Introduction to the important people in the book * Summary and analysis of all the chapters in the book * Key Takeaways of the book * A Reader's Perspective Preview of this summary: Introduction In this book Daniel Kahneman hopes to identify and understand errors of judgment and choice. He wants to provide a richer and more accurate vocabulary to discuss these errors. He worked with his colleague, Amos Tversky, doing research on intuitive statistics. The two of them had already concluded in an earlier seminar that their own intuitions were lacking. Their subjective judgments were biased, they were too willing to believe research findings based on inadequate evidence, and they collected too few observations in their own research. The goal of their study was to find out whether other researchers had this problem as well. Kahneman and Tversky found that participants in their studies ignored the relevant statistical facts and relied exclusively on resemblance. They used resemblance as a heuristic (rule of thumb) to simplify things when making a difficult judgment. Relying on this heuristic caused predictable biases (systematic errors) in their predictions. The research partners learned that people tend to determine the importance of issues by how easy they are retrieved from their memory. This is brought about in large part by the extent of coverage of the issues in the media. Kahneman presents a view of how the mind works, drawing on recent developments in cognitive and social psychology. He explains the differences between fast (intuitive) thinking and slow (deliberate) thinking. People have a limitation in their minds: an excessive confidence in what they think they know...
Book Synopsis Summary of Thinking, Fast and Slow by : Instaread Summaries
Download or read book Summary of Thinking, Fast and Slow written by Instaread Summaries and published by Idreambooks. This book was released on 2016-04-06 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Summary and Analysis of Thinking, Fast and Slow by : Worth Books
Download or read book Summary and Analysis of Thinking, Fast and Slow written by Worth Books and published by Open Road Media. This book was released on 2017-01-24 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: So much to read, so little time? This brief overview of Thinking, Fast and Slow tells you what you need to know—before or after you read Daniel Kahneman’s book. Crafted and edited with care, Worth Books set the standard for quality and give you the tools you need to be a well-informed reader. This short summary of Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman includes: Historical context Part-by-part summaries Detailed timeline of key events Important quotes Fascinating trivia Glossary of terms Supporting material to enhance your understanding of the source work About Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman: Nobel Prize–winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman explores the mysteries of intuition, judgment, bias, and logic in the international bestseller Thinking, Fast and Slow. His award-winning book explains the different ways people think, whether they’re deciding how to invest their money or how to make friends. Kahneman’s experiments in behavioral economics, in collaboration with cognitive psychologist Amos Tversky, led to a theory of two systems of thought: the fast thinking used when ducking a blow, and slow thinking that’s better employed for making major life decisions. Applying these psychological concepts to different facets of our lives, Kahneman demonstrates how to better understand your own decision-making, and the choices made by others. The summary and analysis in this ebook are intended to complement your reading experience and bring you closer to great work of nonfiction.
Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
Download or read book Limitless written by Jim Kwik and published by Hay House, Inc. This book was released on 2020-04-07 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlock the full potential of your brain, learn faster, and achieve your goals with this instant New York Times and #1 Wall Street Journal bestseller from Jim Kwik, the world’s #1 brain coach. This ultimate brain training book is packed with practical techniques to help you level-up your mental performance and transform your life. “There’s no genius pill, but Jim gives you the process for unlocking your best brain and brightest future. Just like you want a healthy body, you want a flexible, strong, energized, and fit brain. That’s what Jim does for a living—he is the personal trainer for the mind.” — Mark Hyman, M.D., Head of Strategy and Innovation, Cleveland Clinic Center for Functional Medicine, author of 12 New York Times best-selling books For over 25 years, Jim Kwik has worked closely with successful men and women who are at the top in their fields as actors, athletes, CEOs, and business leaders from all walks of life to unlock their true potential. In Limitless, he reveals the science-based practices and field-tested tips to accelerate self-learning, communication, memory, focus, recall, and speed reading, to create amazing results. Limitless is the ultimate transformation book and gives people the ability to accomplish more--more productivity, more transformation, more personal success and business achievement--by changing their Mindset, Motivation, and Methods. These “3 M’s” live in the pages of Limitless along with practical techniques that unlock the superpowers of your brain and change your habits. Learn how to: FLIP YOUR MINDSET Identify and challenge the assumptions, habits, and procrastinations that limit you and expand the boundaries of what you believe is possible. IGNITE YOUR MOTIVATION By uncovering your passions, purposes, and sources of energy, you can stay focused and clear on your goals. Uncovering what motivates you is the key that opens up limitless mental capacity. This is where Passion + Purpose + Energy meet to move you closer to your goals, while staying focused and clear. MASTER THE METHOD Accelerate learning, improve memory, and enhance brain performance Jim Kwik applies the latest neuroscience for accelerated learning, and will help you finish a book 3x faster through speed reading (and remember every part of it), learn a new language in record time, and master new skills with ease. “What you’ll get within these pages is a series of tools that will help you cast off your perceived restrictions. You’re going to learn how to unlimit your brain. You’re going to learn how to unlimit your drive. You’re going to learn how to unlimit your memory, your focus, and your habits. If I am your mentor in your hero’s journey, then this book is your map to master your mind, motivation, and methods to learn how to learn. And once you’ve done that, you will be limitless.” –Jim Kwik Packed with tips and techniques to improve memory, focus, recall, and speed reading, this brain training book is the perfect gift for anyone looking to transform their life."
Book Synopsis When: The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing by : Daniel H. Pink
Download or read book When: The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing written by Daniel H. Pink and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2018-01-09 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The instant New York Times Bestseller #1 Wall Street Journal Business Bestseller Instant Washington Post Bestseller "Brims with a surprising amount of insight and practical advice." --The Wall Street Journal Daniel H. Pink, the #1 bestselling author of Drive and To Sell Is Human, unlocks the scientific secrets to good timing to help you flourish at work, at school, and at home. Everyone knows that timing is everything. But we don't know much about timing itself. Our lives are a never-ending stream of "when" decisions: when to start a business, schedule a class, get serious about a person. Yet we make those decisions based on intuition and guesswork. Timing, it's often assumed, is an art. In When: The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing, Pink shows that timing is really a science. Drawing on a rich trove of research from psychology, biology, and economics, Pink reveals how best to live, work, and succeed. How can we use the hidden patterns of the day to build the ideal schedule? Why do certain breaks dramatically improve student test scores? How can we turn a stumbling beginning into a fresh start? Why should we avoid going to the hospital in the afternoon? Why is singing in time with other people as good for you as exercise? And what is the ideal time to quit a job, switch careers, or get married? In When, Pink distills cutting-edge research and data on timing and synthesizes them into a fascinating, readable narrative packed with irresistible stories and practical takeaways that give readers compelling insights into how we can live richer, more engaged lives.
Download or read book Think Like a Monk written by Jay Shetty and published by Simon & Schuster. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jay Shetty, social media superstar and host of the #1 podcast On Purpose, distills the timeless wisdom he learned as a monk into practical steps anyone can take every day to live a less anxious, more meaningful life. When you think like a monk, you’ll understand: -How to overcome negativity -How to stop overthinking -Why comparison kills love -How to use your fear -Why you can’t find happiness by looking for it -How to learn from everyone you meet -Why you are not your thoughts -How to find your purpose -Why kindness is crucial to success -And much more... Shetty grew up in a family where you could become one of three things—a doctor, a lawyer, or a failure. His family was convinced he had chosen option three: instead of attending his college graduation ceremony, he headed to India to become a monk, to meditate every day for four to eight hours, and devote his life to helping others. After three years, one of his teachers told him that he would have more impact on the world if he left the monk’s path to share his experience and wisdom with others. Heavily in debt, and with no recognizable skills on his résumé, he moved back home in north London with his parents. Shetty reconnected with old school friends—many working for some of the world’s largest corporations—who were experiencing tremendous stress, pressure, and unhappiness, and they invited Shetty to coach them on well-being, purpose, and mindfulness. Since then, Shetty has become one of the world’s most popular influencers. In 2017, he was named in the Forbes magazine 30-under-30 for being a game-changer in the world of media. In 2018, he had the #1 video on Facebook with over 360 million views. His social media following totals over 38 million, he has produced over 400 viral videos which have amassed more than 8 billion views, and his podcast, On Purpose, is consistently ranked the world’s #1 Health and Wellness podcast. In this inspiring, empowering book, Shetty draws on his time as a monk to show us how we can clear the roadblocks to our potential and power. Combining ancient wisdom and his own rich experiences in the ashram, Think Like a Monk reveals how to overcome negative thoughts and habits, and access the calm and purpose that lie within all of us. He transforms abstract lessons into advice and exercises we can all apply to reduce stress, improve relationships, and give the gifts we find in ourselves to the world. Shetty proves that everyone can—and should—think like a monk.
Download or read book Fluent Forever written by Gabriel Wyner and published by Harmony. This book was released on 2014-08-05 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NATIONAL BESTSELLER • For anyone who wants to learn a foreign language, this is the method that will finally make the words stick. “A brilliant and thoroughly modern guide to learning new languages.”—Gary Marcus, cognitive psychologist and author of the New York Times bestseller Guitar Zero At thirty years old, Gabriel Wyner speaks six languages fluently. He didn’t learn them in school—who does? Rather, he learned them in the past few years, working on his own and practicing on the subway, using simple techniques and free online resources—and here he wants to show others what he’s discovered. Starting with pronunciation, you’ll learn how to rewire your ears and turn foreign sounds into familiar sounds. You’ll retrain your tongue to produce those sounds accurately, using tricks from opera singers and actors. Next, you’ll begin to tackle words, and connect sounds and spellings to imagery rather than translations, which will enable you to think in a foreign language. And with the help of sophisticated spaced-repetition techniques, you’ll be able to memorize hundreds of words a month in minutes every day. This is brain hacking at its most exciting, taking what we know about neuroscience and linguistics and using it to create the most efficient and enjoyable way to learn a foreign language in the spare minutes of your day.
Book Synopsis The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 by : Shane Parrish
Download or read book The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
Book Synopsis Summary of Thinking, Fast and Slow by : Elite Summaries
Download or read book Summary of Thinking, Fast and Slow written by Elite Summaries and published by . This book was released on 2016-07-22 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thinking, Fast and Slow: by Daniel Kahneman | Summary & Analysis A Smarter You In 15 Minutes... What is your time worth? Daniel Kahneman, psychologist and Nobel Prize winner, is the author of the fascinating book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" In general, when we make decisions, be it personally or professionally, all of us utilize two basic thinking systems for problem solving, and the importance of utilizing the right system. This book is all about two basic thinking systems. The first system is Fast Thinking and the second system is Slow Thinking. In short, Fast Thinking is what our "gut" tells us what we should do. It is intuitive, emotional, and done with little thought or effort. Slow thinking is slow, deliberate, and logical. It usually takes more time, often includes numerical or factual information that our brain needs to process and is void of emotion. Kahneman expresses the importance of making it a habit to train our brains into using the right way of "thinking" as we make decisions, as utilizing the wrong thinking system can lead to poor or even disastrous consequences. Kahneman, through intensive behavioral study, has determined that people are more successful if they can lean on the Slow Thinking method. Kahneman teaches his proven theory simply, and includes a plan of action for learning to train the brain to use the correct "thinking" system. This novel takes a fascinating look at behaviors that can change our lives - personally, professionally, and financially. It is a book you should read to improve and utilize your thinking system the right way. Detailed overview of the book Most valuable lessons and information Key Takeaways and Analysis Take action today and grab this best selling book for a limited time discount of only $6.99! Written by Elite Summaries Please note: This is a detailed summary and analysis of the book and not the original book. keyword: Thinking Fast and Slow, Thinking Fast and Slow book, Thinking Fast and Slow kindle, Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow paperback
Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Get Smart! written by Brian Tracy and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2017-03-14 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the secrets for how to think and act like the most successful people in the world and reap the rewards! In today’s constantly changing world, you have to be smart to get ahead. But the average person uses only about two percent of their mental ability. How can we learn to unleash our brain’s full potential to maximize our opportunities, like the most successful people do? In Get Smart!, acclaimed success expert and bestselling author Brian Tracy reveals simple, proven ways to tap into our natural thinking talents and abilities and make quantum leaps toward achieving our dreams. In this indispensable guide, you’ll learn to: · Train your brain to think in ways that create successful results · Recognize and exploit growth opportunities in any situation · Identify and eliminate negative patterns holding you back · Plan, act, and achieve goals with greater precision and speed Whether you want to increase sales, bolster creativity, or better navigate life’s unexpected changes, Get Smart! will help you tap into your powerful mental resources to obtain the results you want and reap the rewards successful people enjoy.
