Strength In Numbers How Polls Work And Why We Need Them

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Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them

Author : G. Elliott Morris
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 039386698X
Total Pages : 175 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (938 download)

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Book Synopsis Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them by : G. Elliott Morris

Download or read book Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them written by G. Elliott Morris and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2022-07-12 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An insightful exploration of political polling and a bold defense of its crucial role in a modern democracy. Public opinion polling is the ultimate democratic process; it gives every person an equal voice in letting elected leaders know what they need and want. But in the eyes of the public, polls today are tarnished. Recent election forecasts have routinely missed the mark and media coverage of polls has focused solely on their ability to predict winners and losers. Polls deserve better. In Strength in Numbers, data journalist G. Elliott Morris argues that the larger purpose of political polls is to improve democracy, not just predict elections. Whether used by interest groups, the press, or politicians, polling serves as a pipeline from the governed to the government, giving citizens influence they would otherwise lack. No one who believes in democracy can afford to give up on polls; they should commit, instead, to understanding them better. In a vibrant history of polling, Morris takes readers from the first semblance of data-gathering in the ancient world through to the development of modern-day scientific polling. He explains how the internet and “big data” have solved many challenges in polling—and created others. He covers the rise of polling aggregation and methods of election forecasting, reveals how data can be distorted and misrepresented, and demystifies the real uncertainty of polling. Candidly acknowledging where polls have gone wrong in the past, Morris charts a path for the industry’s future where it can truly work for the people. Persuasively argued and deeply researched, Strength in Numbers is an essential guide to understanding and embracing one of the most important and overlooked democratic institutions in the United States.

Strength in Numbers

Author : G. Elliot Morris
Publisher : National Geographic Books
ISBN 13 : 0393866971
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (938 download)

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Book Synopsis Strength in Numbers by : G. Elliot Morris

Download or read book Strength in Numbers written by G. Elliot Morris and published by National Geographic Books. This book was released on 2022-07-12 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An insightful exploration of political polling and a bold defense of its crucial role in a modern democracy. Public opinion polling is the ultimate democratic process; it gives every person an equal voice in letting elected leaders know what they need and want. But in the eyes of the public, polls today are tarnished. Recent election forecasts have routinely missed the mark and media coverage of polls has focused solely on their ability to predict winners and losers. Polls deserve better. In Strength in Numbers, data journalist G. Elliott Morris argues that the larger purpose of political polls is to improve democracy, not just predict elections. Whether used by interest groups, the press, or politicians, polling serves as a pipeline from the governed to the government, giving citizens influence they would otherwise lack. No one who believes in democracy can afford to give up on polls; they should commit, instead, to understanding them better. In a vibrant history of polling, Morris takes readers from the first semblance of data-gathering in the ancient world through to the development of modern-day scientific polling. He explains how the internet and “big data” have solved many challenges in polling—and created others. He covers the rise of polling aggregation and methods of election forecasting, reveals how data can be distorted and misrepresented, and demystifies the real uncertainty of polling. Candidly acknowledging where polls have gone wrong in the past, Morris charts a path for the industry’s future where it can truly work for the people. Persuasively argued and deeply researched, Strength in Numbers is an essential guide to understanding and embracing one of the most important and overlooked democratic institutions in the United States.

Lost in a Gallup

Author : W. Joseph Campbell
Publisher : Univ of California Press
ISBN 13 : 0520397827
Total Pages : 366 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (23 download)

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Book Synopsis Lost in a Gallup by : W. Joseph Campbell

Download or read book Lost in a Gallup written by W. Joseph Campbell and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2024-02-20 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.

Polling at a Crossroads

Author : Michael A. Bailey
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108482791
Total Pages : 291 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Polling at a Crossroads by : Michael A. Bailey

Download or read book Polling at a Crossroads written by Michael A. Bailey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2024-03-31 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Polling at a Crossroads presents an intuitive paradigm that allows us to understand and confront the challenges facing modern polling.

Is the Youth Vote Liberal?

Author : Zachary Cook
Publisher : Lexington Books
ISBN 13 : 1666925713
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (669 download)

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Book Synopsis Is the Youth Vote Liberal? by : Zachary Cook

Download or read book Is the Youth Vote Liberal? written by Zachary Cook and published by Lexington Books. This book was released on 2024-02-14 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing off ninety years of survey data, Zachary Cook argues that younger voters, as a function of the life cycle, tend to believe that government should do more to regulate the business sector to help provide high quality jobs for all.

8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World

Author : Jennifer D. Sciubba
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 1324002719
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World by : Jennifer D. Sciubba

Download or read book 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World written by Jennifer D. Sciubba and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2022-03-29 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A provocative description of the power of population change to create the conditions for societal transformation. As the world nears 8 billion people, the countries that have led the global order since World War II are becoming the most aged societies in human history. At the same time, the world’s poorest and least powerful countries are suffocating under an imbalance of population and resources. In 8 Billion and Counting, political demographer Jennifer D. Sciubba argues that the story of the twenty-first century is less a story about exponential population growth, as the previous century was, than it is a story about differential growth—marked by a stark divide between the world’s richest and poorest countries. Drawing from decades of research, policy experience, and teaching, Sciubba employs stories and statistics to explain how demographic trends, like age structure and ethnic composition, are crucial signposts for future violence and peace, repression and democracy, poverty and prosperity. Although we have a diverse global population, demographic trends often follow predictable patterns that can help professionals across the corporate, nonprofit, government, and military sectors understand the global strategic environment. Through the lenses of national security, global health, and economics, Sciubba demonstrates the pitfalls of taking population numbers at face value and extrapolating from there. Instead, she argues, we must look at the forces in a society that amplify demographic trends and the forces that dilute them, particularly political institutions, or the rules of the game. She shows that the most important skills in demographic analysis are naming and being aware of your preferences, rethinking assumptions, and asking the right questions. Provocative and engrossing, 8 Billion and Counting is required reading for business leaders, policy makers, and anyone eager to anticipate political, economic, and social risks and opportunities. A deeper understanding of fertility, mortality, and migration promises to point toward the investments we need to make today to shape the future we want tomorrow.

Statistics for Political Analysis

Author : Theresa Marchant-Shapiro
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1483323684
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (833 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistics for Political Analysis by : Theresa Marchant-Shapiro

Download or read book Statistics for Political Analysis written by Theresa Marchant-Shapiro and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-01-15 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistics are just as vital to understanding political science as the study of institutions, but getting students to understand them when teaching a methods course can be a big challenge. Statistics for Political Analysis makes understanding the numbers easy. The only introduction to statistics book written specifically for political science undergraduates, this book explains each statistical concept in plain language—from basic univariate statistics and the basic measures of association to bivariate and multivariate regression—and uses real world political examples. Students learn the relevance of statistics to political science, how to understand and calculate statistics mathematically, and how to obtain them using SPSS. All calculations are modeled step-by-step, giving students needed practice to master the process without making it intimidating. Each chapter concludes with exercises that get students actively applying the steps and building their professional skills through data calculation, analysis, and memo writing.

Positive Evolutionary Psychology

Author : Glenn Geher
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190647140
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (96 download)

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Book Synopsis Positive Evolutionary Psychology by : Glenn Geher

Download or read book Positive Evolutionary Psychology written by Glenn Geher and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-08-12 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Positive psychologists focus on ways that we can advance the lives of individuals and communities by studying the factors that increase positive outcomes such as life satisfaction and happiness. Evolutionary psychologists use the principles of evolution, based on Darwin's understanding of life, to help shed light on any and all kinds of psychological phenomena. This book brings together both fields to explore positive evolutionary psychology: the use of evolutionary psychology principles to help people and communities experience more positive and fulfilling lives. Across eleven chapters, this book describes the basic ideas of both evolutionary and positive psychology, elaborates on the integration of these two fields as a way to help advance the human condition, discusses several domains of human functioning from the perspective of positive evolutionary psychology, and finally, looks with an eye toward the future of work in this emerging and dynamic field. Over the past few decades, evolutionary psychologists have begun to crack the code on such phenomena as happiness, gratitude, resilience, community, and love. This book describes these facets of the human experience in terms of their evolutionary origins and proposes how we might guide people to optimally experience such positive phenomena in their everyday lives.

Is Voting for Young People?

Author : Martin P. Wattenberg
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317347021
Total Pages : 243 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (173 download)

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Book Synopsis Is Voting for Young People? by : Martin P. Wattenberg

Download or read book Is Voting for Young People? written by Martin P. Wattenberg and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-10-30 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the root causes of the generation gap in voter turnout—changes in media consumption habits over time. It lays out an argument as to why young people have been tuning out politics in recent years, both in the United States and in other established democracies.

The Crisis

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Crisis by :

Download or read book The Crisis written by and published by . This book was released on 1982-06 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Crisis, founded by W.E.B. Du Bois as the official publication of the NAACP, is a journal of civil rights, history, politics, and culture and seeks to educate and challenge its readers about issues that continue to plague African Americans and other communities of color. For nearly 100 years, The Crisis has been the magazine of opinion and thought leaders, decision makers, peacemakers and justice seekers. It has chronicled, informed, educated, entertained and, in many instances, set the economic, political and social agenda for our nation and its multi-ethnic citizens.

Whig Banner

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (742 download)

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Book Synopsis Whig Banner by :

Download or read book Whig Banner written by and published by . This book was released on 1844 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Winner-Take-All Politics

Author : Jacob S. Hacker
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1416588701
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (165 download)

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Book Synopsis Winner-Take-All Politics by : Jacob S. Hacker

Download or read book Winner-Take-All Politics written by Jacob S. Hacker and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2010 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzes the growing divide between the incomes of the wealthy class and those of middle-income Americans, exonerating popular suspects to argue that the nation's political system promotes greed and under-representation.

Are Opinion Polls Useful?

Author : American Historical Association. Historical Service Board
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Are Opinion Polls Useful? by : American Historical Association. Historical Service Board

Download or read book Are Opinion Polls Useful? written by American Historical Association. Historical Service Board and published by . This book was released on 1946 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Assault on Reason

Author : Al Gore
Publisher : A&C Black
ISBN 13 : 0747593345
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (475 download)

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Book Synopsis The Assault on Reason by : Al Gore

Download or read book The Assault on Reason written by Al Gore and published by A&C Black. This book was released on 2008-01-01 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A powerful indictment of the Bush-led radical Right's disdain for the principles of reasoned decision-making, and a rallying cry for a return to reason-based policies at home and abroad.

How Democracies Die

Author : Steven Levitsky
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 1524762946
Total Pages : 321 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (247 download)

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Book Synopsis How Democracies Die by : Steven Levitsky

Download or read book How Democracies Die written by Steven Levitsky and published by Crown. This book was released on 2019-01-08 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • “Comprehensive, enlightening, and terrifyingly timely.”—The New York Times Book Review (Editors' Choice) WINNER OF THE GOLDSMITH BOOK PRIZE • SHORTLISTED FOR THE LIONEL GELBER PRIZE • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY The Washington Post • Time • Foreign Affairs • WBUR • Paste Donald Trump’s presidency has raised a question that many of us never thought we’d be asking: Is our democracy in danger? Harvard professors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt have spent more than twenty years studying the breakdown of democracies in Europe and Latin America, and they believe the answer is yes. Democracy no longer ends with a bang—in a revolution or military coup—but with a whimper: the slow, steady weakening of critical institutions, such as the judiciary and the press, and the gradual erosion of long-standing political norms. The good news is that there are several exit ramps on the road to authoritarianism. The bad news is that, by electing Trump, we have already passed the first one. Drawing on decades of research and a wide range of historical and global examples, from 1930s Europe to contemporary Hungary, Turkey, and Venezuela, to the American South during Jim Crow, Levitsky and Ziblatt show how democracies die—and how ours can be saved. Praise for How Democracies Die “What we desperately need is a sober, dispassionate look at the current state of affairs. Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, two of the most respected scholars in the field of democracy studies, offer just that.”—The Washington Post “Where Levitsky and Ziblatt make their mark is in weaving together political science and historical analysis of both domestic and international democratic crises; in doing so, they expand the conversation beyond Trump and before him, to other countries and to the deep structure of American democracy and politics.”—Ezra Klein, Vox “If you only read one book for the rest of the year, read How Democracies Die. . . .This is not a book for just Democrats or Republicans. It is a book for all Americans. It is nonpartisan. It is fact based. It is deeply rooted in history. . . . The best commentary on our politics, no contest.”—Michael Morrell, former Acting Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (via Twitter) “A smart and deeply informed book about the ways in which democracy is being undermined in dozens of countries around the world, and in ways that are perfectly legal.”—Fareed Zakaria, CNN

Securing the Vote

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030947647X
Total Pages : 181 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Securing the Vote by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Securing the Vote written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-09-30 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the 2016 presidential election, America's election infrastructure was targeted by actors sponsored by the Russian government. Securing the Vote: Protecting American Democracy examines the challenges arising out of the 2016 federal election, assesses current technology and standards for voting, and recommends steps that the federal government, state and local governments, election administrators, and vendors of voting technology should take to improve the security of election infrastructure. In doing so, the report provides a vision of voting that is more secure, accessible, reliable, and verifiable.

How Social Science Got Better

Author : Matt Grossmann
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0197518990
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (975 download)

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Book Synopsis How Social Science Got Better by : Matt Grossmann

Download or read book How Social Science Got Better written by Matt Grossmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2021-07-05 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It seems like most of what we read about the academic social sciences in the mainstream media is negative. The field is facing mounting criticism, as canonical studies fail to replicate, questionable research practices abound, and researcher social and political biases come under fire. In response to these criticisms, Matt Grossmann, in How Social Science Got Better, provides a robust defense of the current state of the social sciences. Applying insights from the philosophy, history, and sociology of science and providing new data on research trends and scholarly views, he argues that, far from crisis, social science is undergoing an unparalleled renaissance of ever-broader understanding and application. According to Grossmann, social science research today has never been more relevant, rigorous, or self-reflective because scholars have a much better idea of their blind spots and biases. He highlights how scholars now closely analyze the impact of racial, gender, geographic, methodological, political, and ideological differences on research questions; how the incentives of academia influence our research practices; and how universal human desires to avoid uncomfortable truths and easily solve problems affect our conclusions. Though misaligned incentive structures of course remain, a messy, collective deliberation across the research community has shifted us into an unprecedented age of theoretical diversity, open and connected data, and public scholarship. Grossmann's wide-ranging account of current trends will necessarily force the academy's many critics to rethink their lazy critiques and instead acknowledge the path-breaking advances occurring in the social sciences today.