Statistical Analysis Of Stratospheric Temperature And Ozone Profile Data For Trends And Model Comparison

Author : Raga Smitha Kalapati
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 210 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (577 download)

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Download or read book Analysis of Ozone Data Trends as an Effect of Meteorology and Development of Forecasting Models for Predicting Hourly Ozone Concentrations and Exceedances for Dayton, OH, Using MM5 Real-time Forecasts written by Raga Smitha Kalapati and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this research was to develop and evaluate models for predicting hourly ozone concentrations, ozone exceedances and hourly air quality index (AQI) in Dayton, OH. As the hourly ozone concentrations are closely related to the meteorological conditions, three variables - temperature, wind speed, and dew point temperature - were chosen for this study. The ozone data were extracted from the EPA's AIRS database for the period 1996-2003. The meteorological data was taken from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for the same period. An analysis of variations in hourly ozone concentrations and ozone episode occurrences was carried out for the period Apr.-Oct. for the years 1996-1999. Also, analysis of the long-term trends in annual means of ozone concentrations, temperature, wind speed, and dew point temperature was performed using the same data set. Based on this analysis, the ozone data was divided into pre-summer (Apr.-Jul.) and post-summer (Aug.-Oct.) seasons, to account for seasonal variations, and each season was further divided into three regimes, namely, stable period (hours: 1-8), ascent period (hours: 9-16), and descent period (hours: 17-24). The KZ filter technique was used to reduce the scatter in the time series, and models were developed for the three regimes for each season by regression, using the corresponding independent parameter values. A total of twelve models were developed to predict ozone concentrations for pre-summer and post-summer periods. Six models considered temperature, wind speed, and dew point temperature as the independent variables (three-parameter models), and the other six considered temperature and wind speed as variables (two-parameter models). Also, three models each for pre-summer and post-summer season were developed for predicting the ozone exceedances. The performance of the models was evaluated in three ways: a) Initial evaluation (or validation) of the models was conducted using 2002 data. b) The effectiveness of these models was further evaluated using available MM5 (a mesoscale meteorological forecasting model) real-time forecasts from the Ohio State University for the months of Aug.-Oct., 2003. c) Finally, the performance of the three-parameter models was compared with that of the two-parameter models. All the evaluations were made using statistical evaluation parameters discussed later. The study shows that the forecasts of hourly ozone concentrations made by the models based on KZ filters are reliable only to a limited extent. However, the models performed well in predicting AQI values reported by the EPA. Also, the three-parameter models performed better in predicting the peak concentrations when compared to the two-parameter models.