Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Stalking The Black Swan
Download Stalking The Black Swan full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Stalking The Black Swan ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis Stalking the Black Swan by : Kenneth A. Posner
Download or read book Stalking the Black Swan written by Kenneth A. Posner and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While many books talk about forecasting and decision making, this one is particularly engaging because of Kenneth A. Posner's personal experience - and the honesty with which he discusses it. As a longtime analyst at Morgan Stanley, Posner had to make decisions about whether to invest in many recent high-profile, high-stakes "Black Swan" anomalies. He explains general models and approaches to dealing with uncertainty, sorting information, and developing your analytical skills and judgment. That alone is worthwhile, but the book is especially lively when Posner reviews his specific decisions. He shares his reasoning and exposes his successes and his failures to public view. The result is a knowledge-dense but very readable work that getAbstract recommends to all analysts, but also to those who want to deal with information overload and improve their decision making.
Book Synopsis Stalking the Black Swan by : Kenneth A. Posner
Download or read book Stalking the Black Swan written by Kenneth A. Posner and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2010-03-31 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.
Book Synopsis Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems by : Luca Podofillini
Download or read book Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems written by Luca Podofillini and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-09-03 with total page 730 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems contains the Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015, held 7-10 September 2015 in Zurich, Switzerland. It includes about 570 papers accepted for presentation at the conference. These contributions focus on theories and methods in the area of risk, safety and
Book Synopsis Sexual Predators by : Robert A. Prentky
Download or read book Sexual Predators written by Robert A. Prentky and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-06-26 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Convicted sex offenders released from custody at the end of their criminal sentences pose a risk for re-offense. In many US states, Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) laws have been enacted that allow for the post-prison preventive detention of high risk sex offenders. SVP laws require the courts to make dispositions that protect the public from harm while at the same time respecting the civil rights of the offender. This book describes these SVP laws, their constitutionality, and aspects of their operation. Courts hear expert risk testimony based heavily on the results of actuarial risk assessment. Problems associated with this testimony include the lack of a theory of recidivism risk, bias due to human decision-making, and the insularity of scholarship and practice along developmental lines. The authors propose changes in legal standards, as well as a unified developmental model that treats sexual violence as an "evolving" condition, with roots traceable to childhood and paths that extend into adolescence and adulthood.
Book Synopsis Advances in Knowledge-Based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems by : Manuel Graña
Download or read book Advances in Knowledge-Based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems written by Manuel Graña and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 2307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this 2012 edition of Advances in Knowledge-Based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems the latest innovations and advances in Intelligent Systems and related areas are presented by leading experts from all over the world. The 228 papers that are included cover a wide range of topics. One emphasis is on Information Processing, which has become a pervasive phenomenon in our civilization. While the majority of Information Processing is becoming intelligent in a very broad sense, major research in Semantics, Artificial Intelligence and Knowledge Engineering supports the domain specific applications that are becoming more and more present in our everyday living. Ontologies play a major role in the development of Knowledge Engineering in various domains, from Semantic Web down to the design of specific Decision Support Systems. Research on Ontologies and their applications is a highly active front of current Computational Intelligence science that is addressed here. Other subjects in this volume are modern Machine Learning, Lattice Computing and Mathematical Morphology.The wide scope and high quality of these contributions clearly show that knowledge engineering is a continuous living and evolving set of technologies aimed at improving the design and understanding of systems and their relations with humans.
Download or read book The Black Swam written by Philippa Carr and published by . This book was released on 1990-06-01 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence XXXIV by : Ngoc Thanh Nguyen
Download or read book Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence XXXIV written by Ngoc Thanh Nguyen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-10-31 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These transactions publish research in computer-based methods of computational collective intelligence (CCI) and their applications in a wide range of fields such as performance optimization in IoT, big data, reliability, privacy, security, service selection, QoS and machine learning. This thirty-fourth issue contains 12 selected papers which present new findings and innovative methodologies as well as discuss issues and challenges in the field of collective intelligence in group decision making with special emphasize given to voting theory, power indices and graphs while addressing elections, social choices, IoT and allocation algorithms.
Download or read book Black Swan Song written by Rod Giblett and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2021-05-06 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Combining memoir and studies in the Environmental Humanities, Black Swan Song weaves together an autobiographically-based account of the unique life and work of Rod Giblett. For over 25 years he was a leading local wetland conservationist, environmental activist, and pioneer transdisciplinary researcher and writer of fiction and non-fiction. He has researched, written, and published more than 25 books in the environmental humanities, especially wetland cultural studies, and psychoanalytic ecology. Black Swan Song traces Rod’s early and later life and work from being born in Borneo as the child of Christian missionaries, through his childhood in Bible College, being a High School dropout and studying at three universities to becoming an academic, activist and author, and now a writer. Following in the footsteps of New Lives of the Saints: Twelve Environmental Apostles, Black Swan Song also comprises conversations in conservation counter-theology between the twelve minor biblical prophets and twelve environmental apostles, such as Henry David Thoreau, Aldo Leopold, John Muir, and Rachel Carson. It also introduces the lives and works of twelve more environmental apostles, such as John Clare, Rebecca Solnit, John Charles Ryan, and others who have made a valuable contribution to green thinking and living. Black Swan Song mixes modes and genres, such as memoir, essay, story, criticism, etc., making up the writer’s black swan song. It provides ways of living and being with the earth in dark and troubled times by providing resources of a journey of hope for learning to live bio- and psycho-symbiotic livelihoods in bioregional home habitats of the living earth and in the Symbiocene, the hoped-for age superseding the Anthropocene.
Book Synopsis Technology Cycles and U.S. Economic Policy in the Early 21st Century by : Nathan Edmonson
Download or read book Technology Cycles and U.S. Economic Policy in the Early 21st Century written by Nathan Edmonson and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-09-08 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The overarching theme of this volume is the cyclical nature of technological change, its impact on economic growth, and the limits of government intervention. Technological revolutions are infrequent; there were only three in all of the twentieth century. When they occur, their possibilities are often not immediately apparent. Technology revolutions induce capital investment, not just because they stimulate the need to acquire the new technology, but also because of the need to replace obsolete capacity and new infrastructure. While government has encouraged general economic progress by carrying out highly risky innovations unrelated to fostering economic growth, it seldom succeeds with specific efforts to foster growth. Recent examples of success include the Internet and the global positioning system (GPS), which trace their origins to defense-related research. In contrast, the countercyclical economic stimuli of 2007-2009 have achieved little in the way of general growth. The lack of data about the technology cycle makes formulating appropriate monetary and other policy countercyclical interventions difficult. A technology-founded upswing animated the American economy after 1990, and the -great recession- of 2007- 2009 reflected the waning of the investment boom that this revolution generated. Edmonson argues that the impact of technology revolutions on general economic growth has never received the attention it deserves. This volume will contribute much to debates on economic policy.
Book Synopsis Red Deer Stalking at Home and Abroad by : Various
Download or read book Red Deer Stalking at Home and Abroad written by Various and published by Read Books Ltd. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Red Deer Stalking at Home and Abroad" is a collection of essays, articles, and personal experiences related to hunting red deer, written by various authors. Full of interesting information and entertaining stories, this volume is not to be missed by modern hunters and collectors of vintage sporting literature. Contents include: "An American's Impressions of Deer-Stalking in Scotland, by Charles W. Ogden", "The Future of Deerstalking", "The Red Deer in England", "The Red Deer in New Zealand", "The Stag That Escaped", "The Sportsman as an Empire Builder", "The Deer Forests of Scotland", etc. Many vintage books such as this are becoming increasingly scarce and expensive. We are republishing this volume now in a modern, high-quality edition complete with a specially commissioned new introduction on deer stalking and hunting.
Book Synopsis Corporate Governance by : Walter Effross
Download or read book Corporate Governance written by Walter Effross and published by Aspen Publishing. This book was released on 2014-12-09 with total page 814 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Walter Effross is a superb teacher and succeeds in making a sometimes dry subject interesting to students. Corporate Governance contrasts schools of thought, explaining the conflicts between such theories as contractarianism and communitarianism, and such emerging academic approaches as empiricism and behavioral economics. The text includes excerpts from only the most important sections of judicial decisions along with their relevant factual and procedural context. Extensive notes address the reactions to decisions from other courts, commentators, counsel, and executives. Dozens of examples ripped from the headlines, excerpted from actual corporate documents, and drawn from popular culture illustrate key principles and spark class discussions. More than one hundred suggestions for paper topics are especially useful for participants in research and writing seminars. An appendix categorizes and details more than eighty separate initiatives that shareholder activists and commentators have proposed. A wide range of excerpts from corporate documents and court decisions interpreting these materials help students translate the caselaw and learn drafting techniques. The Second Edition reflects legislative, regulatory, judicial, and Fortune 500 developments since mid-2009 as well as new examples from corporate documents, the Great Books, and popular culture. Detailed coverage of new and emerging topics includes discussion of the governance of nonprofit corporations the emerging types of social enterprises such as benefit corporations, B corporations, and flexible purpose corporations; the board s responsibility to rein in the cyber-risks raised by hackers, e-mails, Web sites, and social media; and the implications for directors, officers, and counsel of new research on avoiding common cognitive traps that compromise decision-making in situations of risk and uncertainty. The Second Edition explores governance changes wrought by the financial crisis and reform legislation; the responsible corporate officer doctrine, the honest services doctrine, and other theories of executive liability; issues raised by crowdfunding ; and the consequences of the Citizens United decision removing limits on companies independent political expenditures. New appendices give detailed advice on identifying, developing, refining, and researching topics for articles and on using the publishing process to invigorate one s professional network and career.
Book Synopsis Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management by : Dale Lehman
Download or read book Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management written by Dale Lehman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a one-stop resource for performing quantitative risk analyses. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. The specific examples in the text demonstrate a number of cutting-edge tools and techniques that are very powerful in risk analysis but that are not available in other spreadsheet simulation programs. The book covers modeling complex correlations, aggregating uncertainty and variability, and estimating parameter and model uncertainty. The included CD-ROM provides a 120-day trial of ModelRisk.
Book Synopsis The Dark Beneath the Ice by : Amelinda Bérubé
Download or read book The Dark Beneath the Ice written by Amelinda Bérubé and published by Sourcebooks, Inc.. This book was released on 2018-08-07 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Black Swan meets Paranormal Activity in this compelling ghost story about a former dancer whose grip on reality slips when she begins to think a dark entity is stalking her. Something is wrong with Marianne. It's not just that her parents have finally split up. Or that life hasn't been the same since she quit dancing. Or even that her mother has checked herself into the hospital. She's losing time. Doing things she would never do. And objects around her seem to break whenever she comes close. Something is after her. And the only one who seems to believe her is the daughter of a local psychic. But their first attempt at an exorcism calls down the full force of the thing's rage. It demands Marianne give back what she stole. Whatever is haunting her, it wants everything she has—everything it's convinced she stole. Marianne must uncover the truth that lies beneath it all before the nightmare can take what it thinks it's owed, leaving Marianne trapped in the darkness of the other side.
Book Synopsis All the Devils Are Here by : Bethany McLean
Download or read book All the Devils Are Here written by Bethany McLean and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2011-08-30 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Hell is empty, and all the devils are here." -Shakespeare, The Tempest As soon as the financial crisis erupted, the finger-pointing began. Should the blame fall on Wall Street, Main Street, or Pennsylvania Avenue? On greedy traders, misguided regulators, sleazy subprime companies, cowardly legislators, or clueless home buyers? According to Bethany McLean and Joe Nocera, two of America's most acclaimed business journalists, the real answer is all of the above-and more. Many devils helped bring hell to the economy. And the full story, in all of its complexity and detail, is like the legend of the blind men and the elephant. Almost everyone has missed the big picture. Almost no one has put all the pieces together. All the Devils Are Here goes back several decades to weave the hidden history of the financial crisis in a way no previous book has done. It explores the motivations of everyone from famous CEOs, cabinet secretaries, and politicians to anonymous lenders, borrowers, analysts, and Wall Street traders. It delves into the powerful American mythology of homeownership. And it proves that the crisis ultimately wasn't about finance at all; it was about human nature. Among the devils you'll meet in vivid detail: • Angelo Mozilo, the CEO of Countrywide, who dreamed of spreading homeownership to the masses, only to succumb to the peer pressure-and the outsized profits-of the sleaziest subprime lending. • Roland Arnall, a respected philanthropist and diplomat, who made his fortune building Ameriquest, a subprime lending empire that relied on blatantly deceptive lending practices. • Hank Greenberg, who built AIG into a Rube Goldberg contraption with an undeserved triple-A rating, and who ran it so tightly that he was the only one who knew where all the bodies were buried. • Stan O'Neal of Merrill Lynch, aloof and suspicious, who suffered from "Goldman envy" and drove a proud old firm into the ground by promoting cronies and pushing out his smartest lieutenants. • Lloyd Blankfein, who helped turn Goldman Sachs from a culture that famously put clients first to one that made clients secondary to its own bottom line. • Franklin Raines of Fannie Mae, who (like his predecessors) bullied regulators into submission and let his firm drift away from its original, noble mission. • Brian Clarkson of Moody's, who aggressively pushed to increase his rating agency's market share and stock price, at the cost of its integrity. • Alan Greenspan, the legendary maestro of the Federal Reserve, who ignored the evidence of a growing housing bubble and turned a blind eye to the lending practices that ultimately brought down Wall Street-and inflicted enormous pain on the country. Just as McLean's The Smartest Guys in the Room was hailed as the best Enron book on a crowded shelf, so will All the Devils Are Here be remembered for finally making sense of the meltdown and its consequences.
Book Synopsis Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond by : Thomas E. Berghage
Download or read book Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond written by Thomas E. Berghage and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2014-07-29 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For years, financial analysts have struggled with the fact that practically all the financial measures used to analyze corporate performance lack predictive power when it comes to forecasting the market performance of the company's stock. Numerous academic studies have documented and reported this lack of predictability. Correlation coefficients close to zero have been reported for the relationship between stock market performance and such critical financial measures as earnings growth, sales growth, price/earnings ratio, return on equity, intrinsic value (models based on discounted cash flow or dividends), and many more. It is this disconnect between traditional financial measures and the performance of stocks in the marketplace that has led to the now-famous efficient market hypothesis, the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. To accept the idea that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable is to say that nothing a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market, and that is absurd. It would be more accurate to say that everything a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market. The problem with this statement is that it makes the forecasting of future stock performance so complex that it removes it from the realm of human solution.
Book Synopsis Calculating Catastrophe by : Gordon Woo
Download or read book Calculating Catastrophe written by Gordon Woo and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets.The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk.
Book Synopsis Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk by : Dale Lehman
Download or read book Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk written by Dale Lehman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-11 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk provides a guide of how to construct applied decision analysis models in spreadsheets. The focus is on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to provide quantitative assessment of uncertainties and key risk drivers. The book presents numerous examples based on real data and relevant practical decisions in a variety of settings, including health care, transportation, finance, natural resources, technology, manufacturing, retail, and sports and entertainment. All examples involve decision problems where uncertainties make simulation modeling useful to obtain decision insights and explore alternative choices. Good spreadsheet modeling practices are highlighted. The book is suitable for graduate students or advanced undergraduates in business, public policy, health care administration, or any field amenable to simulation modeling of decision problems. The book is also useful for applied practitioners seeking to build or enhance their spreadsheet modeling skills. Features Step-by-step examples of spreadsheet modeling and risk analysis in a variety of fields Description of probabilistic methods, their theoretical foundations, and their practical application in a spreadsheet environment Extensive example models and exercises based on real data and relevant decision problems Comprehensive use of the @Risk software for simulation analysis, including a free one-year educational software license
