Stalking The Black Swan

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Stalking the Black Swan

Author : Kenneth A. Posner
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780231150484
Total Pages : 296 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (54 download)

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Book Synopsis Stalking the Black Swan by : Kenneth A. Posner

Download or read book Stalking the Black Swan written by Kenneth A. Posner and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While many books talk about forecasting and decision making, this one is particularly engaging because of Kenneth A. Posner's personal experience - and the honesty with which he discusses it. As a longtime analyst at Morgan Stanley, Posner had to make decisions about whether to invest in many recent high-profile, high-stakes "Black Swan" anomalies. He explains general models and approaches to dealing with uncertainty, sorting information, and developing your analytical skills and judgment. That alone is worthwhile, but the book is especially lively when Posner reviews his specific decisions. He shares his reasoning and exposes his successes and his failures to public view. The result is a knowledge-dense but very readable work that getAbstract recommends to all analysts, but also to those who want to deal with information overload and improve their decision making.

Stalking the Black Swan

Author : Kenneth A. Posner
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231521677
Total Pages : 284 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Stalking the Black Swan by : Kenneth A. Posner

Download or read book Stalking the Black Swan written by Kenneth A. Posner and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2010-03-31 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

Murder on Black Swan Lane

Author : Andrea Penrose
Publisher : Kensington Books
ISBN 13 : 1496710789
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (967 download)

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Book Synopsis Murder on Black Swan Lane by : Andrea Penrose

Download or read book Murder on Black Swan Lane written by Andrea Penrose and published by Kensington Books. This book was released on 2017-06-27 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Regency London, an unconventional scientist and a fearless female artist team up to trap a cold-hearted killer: “Thoroughly enjoyable” (Deanna Raybourn, New York Times–bestselling author). The Earl of Wrexford possesses a brilliant scientific mind, but boredom and pride lead him to reckless behavior. So when pompous, pious Reverend Josiah Holworthy publicly condemns him for debauchery, Wrexford unsheathes his rapier-sharp wit and strikes back. As their war of words escalates, London’s most popular satirical cartoonist, A.J. Quill, skewers them both. But then the clergyman is found slain in a church—his face burned by chemicals, his throat slashed ear to ear—and Wrexford finds himself the chief suspect. An artist in her own right, Charlotte Sloane has secretly slipped into the persona of her late husband, using his nom de plume, A.J. Quill. When Wrexford discovers her true identity, she fears it will be her undoing. But he has a proposal—use her sources to unveil the clergyman’s clandestine involvement in questionable scientific practices, and unmask the real murderer. Soon Lord Wrexford and the mysterious Mrs. Sloane plunge into a dangerous shadow world hidden among London’s intellectual enclaves to trap a cunning adversary—before they fall victim to the next experiment in villainy . . . “Sharp, engaging characters, rich period detail, and a compellingly twisty plot, Andrea Penrose delivers a winner.” —Deanna Raybourn, New York Times–bestselling author “Fans of C.S. Harris take note! A riveting ride through Regency London, from the slums of St. Giles, to the mansions of Mayfair.” —Lauren Willig, New York Times–bestselling author “Historical chemistry meets alchemy . . . A delight of a book.&rdquo

The Dark Beneath the Ice

Author : Amelinda Bérubé
Publisher : Sourcebooks, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1492657085
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (926 download)

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Book Synopsis The Dark Beneath the Ice by : Amelinda Bérubé

Download or read book The Dark Beneath the Ice written by Amelinda Bérubé and published by Sourcebooks, Inc.. This book was released on 2018-08-07 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Black Swan meets Paranormal Activity in this compelling ghost story about a former dancer whose grip on reality slips when she begins to think a dark entity is stalking her. Something is wrong with Marianne. It's not just that her parents have finally split up. Or that life hasn't been the same since she quit dancing. Or even that her mother has checked herself into the hospital. She's losing time. Doing things she would never do. And objects around her seem to break whenever she comes close. Something is after her. And the only one who seems to believe her is the daughter of a local psychic. But their first attempt at an exorcism calls down the full force of the thing's rage. It demands Marianne give back what she stole. Whatever is haunting her, it wants everything she has—everything it's convinced she stole. Marianne must uncover the truth that lies beneath it all before the nightmare can take what it thinks it's owed, leaving Marianne trapped in the darkness of the other side.

Swan Song

Author : Robert McCammon
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1501131427
Total Pages : 928 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis Swan Song by : Robert McCammon

Download or read book Swan Song written by Robert McCammon and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2016-07-26 with total page 928 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a nightmarish, post-holocaust world, an ancient evil roams a devastated America, gathering the forces of human greed and madness, searching for a child named Swan who possesses the gift of life.

The Inner World of Trauma

Author : Donald Kalsched
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 131772545X
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (177 download)

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Book Synopsis The Inner World of Trauma by : Donald Kalsched

Download or read book The Inner World of Trauma written by Donald Kalsched and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-02-25 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Donald Kalsched explores the interior world of dream and fantasy images encountered in therapy with people who have suffered unbearable life experiences. He shows how, in an ironical twist of psychical life, the very images which are generated to defend the self can become malevolent and destructive, resulting in further trauma for the person. Why and how this happens are the questions the book sets out to answer. Drawing on detailed clinical material, the author gives special attention to the problems of addiction and psychosomatic disorder, as well as the broad topic of dissociation and its treatment. By focusing on the archaic and primitive defenses of the self he connects Jungian theory and practice with contemporary object relations theory and dissociation theory. At the same time, he shows how a Jungian understanding of the universal images of myth and folklore can illuminate treatment of the traumatised patient. Trauma is about the rupture of those developmental transitions that make life worth living. Donald Kalsched sees this as a spiritual problem as well as a psychological one and in The Inner World of Trauma he provides a compelling insight into how an inner self-care system tries to save the personal spirit.

Black Swan, White Raven

Author : Ellen Datlow
Publisher : Wildside Press
ISBN 13 : 9780809572540
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (725 download)

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Book Synopsis Black Swan, White Raven by : Ellen Datlow

Download or read book Black Swan, White Raven written by Ellen Datlow and published by Wildside Press. This book was released on 2008-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offers contemporary retellings of traditional fairy tales, including Gregory Frost's "Sparks," "The Dog Rose" by Sten Westgard, and other works by Jane Yolen, Joyce Carol Oates, Nancy Kress, and John Crowley.

Advances in Knowledge-based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems

Author : Manuel Graña
Publisher : IOS Press
ISBN 13 : 1614991049
Total Pages : 2306 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (149 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Knowledge-based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems by : Manuel Graña

Download or read book Advances in Knowledge-based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems written by Manuel Graña and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 2306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this 2012 edition of Advances in Knowledge-Based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems the latest innovations and advances in Intelligent Systems and related areas are presented by leading experts from all over the world. The 228 papers that are included cover a wide range of topics. One emphasis is on Information Processing, which has become a pervasive phenomenon in our civilization. While the majority of Information Processing is becoming intelligent in a very broad sense, major research in Semantics, Artificial Intelligence and Knowledge Engineering supports the domain specific applications that are becoming more and more present in our everyday living. Ontologies play a major role in the development of Knowledge Engineering in various domains, from Semantic Web down to the design of specific Decision Support Systems. Research on Ontologies and their applications is a highly active front of current Computational Intelligence science that is addressed here. Other subjects in this volume are modern Machine Learning, Lattice Computing and Mathematical Morphology.The wide scope and high quality of these contributions clearly show that knowledge engineering is a continuous living and evolving set of technologies aimed at improving the design and understanding of systems and their relations with humans.

Black Swan Affair

Author : K. L. Kreig
Publisher : K.L. Kreig
ISBN 13 : 9781943443147
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (431 download)

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Book Synopsis Black Swan Affair by : K. L. Kreig

Download or read book Black Swan Affair written by K. L. Kreig and published by K.L. Kreig. This book was released on 2016-09 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I've loved him as long as I can remember. The gangly boy with big brown eyes and unruly hair who grew up into an intoxicating man. He wears scruff like he invented it and ambles with a swagger that makes panties drop. Killian Shepard. Shep. We grew up together. We played Ghost in the Graveyard. Had our own rock band. It didn't matter that he was five years older than me. It didn't matter that he looked at me as a kid sister even as I grew into woman. It didn't even matter when he left me behind to go to college and start his adult life. He'd be back. He was always meant to be mine. He came back, all right. But instead of smelling of promises, he stunk of betrayal. And he destroyed me-us-the day he married my sister instead of me. So I did the only thing a girl like me in my position could do. I got my revenge. I married his brother, Kael. Now we're one big happy f**king family.

Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management

Author : Dale Lehman
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439855544
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management by : Dale Lehman

Download or read book Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management written by Dale Lehman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a one-stop resource for performing quantitative risk analyses. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. The specific examples in the text demonstrate a number of cutting-edge tools and techniques that are very powerful in risk analysis but that are not available in other spreadsheet simulation programs. The book covers modeling complex correlations, aggregating uncertainty and variability, and estimating parameter and model uncertainty. The included CD-ROM provides a 120-day trial of ModelRisk.

Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence XXXIV

Author : Ngoc Thanh Nguyen
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3662605554
Total Pages : 193 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (626 download)

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Book Synopsis Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence XXXIV by : Ngoc Thanh Nguyen

Download or read book Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence XXXIV written by Ngoc Thanh Nguyen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-10-31 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These transactions publish research in computer-based methods of computational collective intelligence (CCI) and their applications in a wide range of fields such as performance optimization in IoT, big data, reliability, privacy, security, service selection, QoS and machine learning. This thirty-fourth issue contains 12 selected papers which present new findings and innovative methodologies as well as discuss issues and challenges in the field of collective intelligence in group decision making with special emphasize given to voting theory, power indices and graphs while addressing elections, social choices, IoT and allocation algorithms.

Sexual Predators

Author : Robert A. Prentky
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136016724
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis Sexual Predators by : Robert A. Prentky

Download or read book Sexual Predators written by Robert A. Prentky and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-06-26 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Convicted sex offenders released from custody at the end of their criminal sentences pose a risk for re-offense. In many US states, Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) laws have been enacted that allow for the post-prison preventive detention of high risk sex offenders. SVP laws require the courts to make dispositions that protect the public from harm while at the same time respecting the civil rights of the offender. This book describes these SVP laws, their constitutionality, and aspects of their operation. Courts hear expert risk testimony based heavily on the results of actuarial risk assessment. Problems associated with this testimony include the lack of a theory of recidivism risk, bias due to human decision-making, and the insularity of scholarship and practice along developmental lines. The authors propose changes in legal standards, as well as a unified developmental model that treats sexual violence as an "evolving" condition, with roots traceable to childhood and paths that extend into adolescence and adulthood.

Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk

Author : Dale Lehman
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429509324
Total Pages : 601 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (295 download)

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Book Synopsis Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk by : Dale Lehman

Download or read book Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk written by Dale Lehman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-11 with total page 601 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk provides a guide of how to construct applied decision analysis models in spreadsheets. The focus is on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to provide quantitative assessment of uncertainties and key risk drivers. The book presents numerous examples based on real data and relevant practical decisions in a variety of settings, including health care, transportation, finance, natural resources, technology, manufacturing, retail, and sports and entertainment. All examples involve decision problems where uncertainties make simulation modeling useful to obtain decision insights and explore alternative choices. Good spreadsheet modeling practices are highlighted. The book is suitable for graduate students or advanced undergraduates in business, public policy, health care administration, or any field amenable to simulation modeling of decision problems. The book is also useful for applied practitioners seeking to build or enhance their spreadsheet modeling skills. Features Step-by-step examples of spreadsheet modeling and risk analysis in a variety of fields Description of probabilistic methods, their theoretical foundations, and their practical application in a spreadsheet environment Extensive example models and exercises based on real data and relevant decision problems Comprehensive use of the @Risk software for simulation analysis, including a free one-year educational software license

Ovid on Screen

Author : Martin M. Winkler
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108485405
Total Pages : 491 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Ovid on Screen by : Martin M. Winkler

Download or read book Ovid on Screen written by Martin M. Winkler and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-01-30 with total page 491 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first study of Ovid, especially his Metamorphoses, as inherently visual literature, explaining his pervasive importance in our visual media.

Running the Long Path

Author : Kenneth A. Posner
Publisher : State University of New York Press
ISBN 13 : 1438462921
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (384 download)

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Book Synopsis Running the Long Path by : Kenneth A. Posner

Download or read book Running the Long Path written by Kenneth A. Posner and published by State University of New York Press. This book was released on 2016-09-30 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finalist for the 2016 Foreword INDIES Book of the Year Award in the Sports category Have you ever considered running 350 miles in nine days? Kenneth A. Posner did just that when he completed a record-setting run along New York's Long Path, a 350-mile hiking trail that stretches from New York City to Albany. Running the Long Path's page-turning narrative combines the thrill and challenges of Posner's extreme endurance feat with the stunning natural beauty and deep historical significance of New York's Hudson Valley. A one-time casual runner, Posner shares his excitement of developing into a trail-runner and eventually an ultrarunner, as well as the pursuit of a "fastest known time"—a new dimension of extreme trail running, where some of the sport's fastest and most experienced athletes vie to set new speed records for important trails. Hikers, walkers, and runners will appreciate his detailed descriptions of planning, pacing, gear selection, nutrition, hydration, and navigation, which will help them prepare for their own adventures on the trails. Interspersed with the running adventure, Posner relates the interesting stories of the Long Path and the places it passes through, which include some of New York's most important parks and preserves and the distinctive mountains and forests they protect. Throughout the book, he channels the voices of famous New Yorkers associated with the Long Path—Walt Whitman, John Burroughs, Theodore Roosevelt, and Raymond Torrey—who express their appreciation of the natural beauty of the region. Running the Long Path is the story of what ordinary people can accomplish with a little determination and a lot of grit. Whether you walk or run, you will find inspiration in Posner's tale.

Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems

Author : Luca Podofillini
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1315648415
Total Pages : 4627 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (156 download)

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Book Synopsis Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems by : Luca Podofillini

Download or read book Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems written by Luca Podofillini and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-09-03 with total page 4627 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems contains the Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015, held 7-10 September 2015 in Zurich, Switzerland. Including 570 papers on theories and methods in the area of risk, safety and reliability, and their applications to a wide range of industrial, civil and social sectors, this book will be of interest to academics and professionals involved or interested in aspect of risk, safety and reliability in various engineering areas.

True Love Story

Author : Willow Aster
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN 13 : 9781482319057
Total Pages : 388 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis True Love Story by : Willow Aster

Download or read book True Love Story written by Willow Aster and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2013-02-24 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growing up in an idealistic home, Sparrow Fisher is sheltered and innocent. When she meets Ian Sterling, a musician who is rising in popularity, she instantly falls for his charm. They run into each other over the next few months and eventually begin an unconventional relationship. At different places in their lives, Sparrow is off to college in New York, and Ian is traveling the country with the band. When they see each other, all seems wonderful and lighthearted, but when they're apart, Sparrow is left to wonder if Ian really cares about her the way he says he does, or if she's just another pretty face to him. Once their relationship steadies, they're both happier than they've ever been, and it's hard to not get caught up in the magic they have together. Until something so devastating comes to light that threatens to shatter everything they've built with each other. True Love Story is a story about the real highs and lows that come with a relationship-happiness, pain, angst, and finding out if love really is enough.