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Stalking The Black Swan
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Book Synopsis Stalking the Black Swan by : Kenneth A. Posner
Download or read book Stalking the Black Swan written by Kenneth A. Posner and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While many books talk about forecasting and decision making, this one is particularly engaging because of Kenneth A. Posner's personal experience - and the honesty with which he discusses it. As a longtime analyst at Morgan Stanley, Posner had to make decisions about whether to invest in many recent high-profile, high-stakes "Black Swan" anomalies. He explains general models and approaches to dealing with uncertainty, sorting information, and developing your analytical skills and judgment. That alone is worthwhile, but the book is especially lively when Posner reviews his specific decisions. He shares his reasoning and exposes his successes and his failures to public view. The result is a knowledge-dense but very readable work that getAbstract recommends to all analysts, but also to those who want to deal with information overload and improve their decision making.
Book Synopsis Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems by : Luca Podofillini
Download or read book Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems written by Luca Podofillini and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-09-03 with total page 730 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems contains the Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015, held 7-10 September 2015 in Zurich, Switzerland. It includes about 570 papers accepted for presentation at the conference. These contributions focus on theories and methods in the area of risk, safety and
Book Synopsis Sexual Predators by : Robert A. Prentky
Download or read book Sexual Predators written by Robert A. Prentky and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-06-26 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Convicted sex offenders released from custody at the end of their criminal sentences pose a risk for re-offense. In many US states, Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) laws have been enacted that allow for the post-prison preventive detention of high risk sex offenders. SVP laws require the courts to make dispositions that protect the public from harm while at the same time respecting the civil rights of the offender. This book describes these SVP laws, their constitutionality, and aspects of their operation. Courts hear expert risk testimony based heavily on the results of actuarial risk assessment. Problems associated with this testimony include the lack of a theory of recidivism risk, bias due to human decision-making, and the insularity of scholarship and practice along developmental lines. The authors propose changes in legal standards, as well as a unified developmental model that treats sexual violence as an "evolving" condition, with roots traceable to childhood and paths that extend into adolescence and adulthood.
Book Synopsis Advances in Knowledge-Based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems by : Manuel Graña
Download or read book Advances in Knowledge-Based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems written by Manuel Graña and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 2307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this 2012 edition of Advances in Knowledge-Based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems the latest innovations and advances in Intelligent Systems and related areas are presented by leading experts from all over the world. The 228 papers that are included cover a wide range of topics. One emphasis is on Information Processing, which has become a pervasive phenomenon in our civilization. While the majority of Information Processing is becoming intelligent in a very broad sense, major research in Semantics, Artificial Intelligence and Knowledge Engineering supports the domain specific applications that are becoming more and more present in our everyday living. Ontologies play a major role in the development of Knowledge Engineering in various domains, from Semantic Web down to the design of specific Decision Support Systems. Research on Ontologies and their applications is a highly active front of current Computational Intelligence science that is addressed here. Other subjects in this volume are modern Machine Learning, Lattice Computing and Mathematical Morphology.The wide scope and high quality of these contributions clearly show that knowledge engineering is a continuous living and evolving set of technologies aimed at improving the design and understanding of systems and their relations with humans.
Download or read book The Black Swam written by Philippa Carr and published by . This book was released on 1990-06-01 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence XXXIV by : Ngoc Thanh Nguyen
Download or read book Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence XXXIV written by Ngoc Thanh Nguyen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-10-31 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These transactions publish research in computer-based methods of computational collective intelligence (CCI) and their applications in a wide range of fields such as performance optimization in IoT, big data, reliability, privacy, security, service selection, QoS and machine learning. This thirty-fourth issue contains 12 selected papers which present new findings and innovative methodologies as well as discuss issues and challenges in the field of collective intelligence in group decision making with special emphasize given to voting theory, power indices and graphs while addressing elections, social choices, IoT and allocation algorithms.
Book Synopsis Technology Cycles and U.S. Economic Policy in the Early 21st Century by : Nathan Edmonson
Download or read book Technology Cycles and U.S. Economic Policy in the Early 21st Century written by Nathan Edmonson and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-09-08 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The overarching theme of this volume is the cyclical nature of technological change, its impact on economic growth, and the limits of government intervention. Technological revolutions are infrequent; there were only three in all of the twentieth century. When they occur, their possibilities are often not immediately apparent. Technology revolutions induce capital investment, not just because they stimulate the need to acquire the new technology, but also because of the need to replace obsolete capacity and new infrastructure. While government has encouraged general economic progress by carrying out highly risky innovations unrelated to fostering economic growth, it seldom succeeds with specific efforts to foster growth. Recent examples of success include the Internet and the global positioning system (GPS), which trace their origins to defense-related research. In contrast, the countercyclical economic stimuli of 2007-2009 have achieved little in the way of general growth. The lack of data about the technology cycle makes formulating appropriate monetary and other policy countercyclical interventions difficult. A technology-founded upswing animated the American economy after 1990, and the -great recession- of 2007- 2009 reflected the waning of the investment boom that this revolution generated. Edmonson argues that the impact of technology revolutions on general economic growth has never received the attention it deserves. This volume will contribute much to debates on economic policy.
Book Synopsis Red Deer Stalking at Home and Abroad by : Various
Download or read book Red Deer Stalking at Home and Abroad written by Various and published by Read Books Ltd. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Red Deer Stalking at Home and Abroad" is a collection of essays, articles, and personal experiences related to hunting red deer, written by various authors. Full of interesting information and entertaining stories, this volume is not to be missed by modern hunters and collectors of vintage sporting literature. Contents include: "An American's Impressions of Deer-Stalking in Scotland, by Charles W. Ogden", "The Future of Deerstalking", "The Red Deer in England", "The Red Deer in New Zealand", "The Stag That Escaped", "The Sportsman as an Empire Builder", "The Deer Forests of Scotland", etc. Many vintage books such as this are becoming increasingly scarce and expensive. We are republishing this volume now in a modern, high-quality edition complete with a specially commissioned new introduction on deer stalking and hunting.
Book Synopsis Corporate Governance by : Walter Effross
Download or read book Corporate Governance written by Walter Effross and published by Aspen Publishing. This book was released on 2014-12-09 with total page 814 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Walter Effross is a superb teacher and succeeds in making a sometimes dry subject interesting to students. Corporate Governance contrasts schools of thought, explaining the conflicts between such theories as contractarianism and communitarianism, and such emerging academic approaches as empiricism and behavioral economics. The text includes excerpts from only the most important sections of judicial decisions along with their relevant factual and procedural context. Extensive notes address the reactions to decisions from other courts, commentators, counsel, and executives. Dozens of examples ripped from the headlines, excerpted from actual corporate documents, and drawn from popular culture illustrate key principles and spark class discussions. More than one hundred suggestions for paper topics are especially useful for participants in research and writing seminars. An appendix categorizes and details more than eighty separate initiatives that shareholder activists and commentators have proposed. A wide range of excerpts from corporate documents and court decisions interpreting these materials help students translate the caselaw and learn drafting techniques. The Second Edition reflects legislative, regulatory, judicial, and Fortune 500 developments since mid-2009 as well as new examples from corporate documents, the Great Books, and popular culture. Detailed coverage of new and emerging topics includes discussion of the governance of nonprofit corporations the emerging types of social enterprises such as benefit corporations, B corporations, and flexible purpose corporations; the board s responsibility to rein in the cyber-risks raised by hackers, e-mails, Web sites, and social media; and the implications for directors, officers, and counsel of new research on avoiding common cognitive traps that compromise decision-making in situations of risk and uncertainty. The Second Edition explores governance changes wrought by the financial crisis and reform legislation; the responsible corporate officer doctrine, the honest services doctrine, and other theories of executive liability; issues raised by crowdfunding ; and the consequences of the Citizens United decision removing limits on companies independent political expenditures. New appendices give detailed advice on identifying, developing, refining, and researching topics for articles and on using the publishing process to invigorate one s professional network and career.
Book Synopsis Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management by : Dale Lehman
Download or read book Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management written by Dale Lehman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a one-stop resource for performing quantitative risk analyses. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. The specific examples in the text demonstrate a number of cutting-edge tools and techniques that are very powerful in risk analysis but that are not available in other spreadsheet simulation programs. The book covers modeling complex correlations, aggregating uncertainty and variability, and estimating parameter and model uncertainty. The included CD-ROM provides a 120-day trial of ModelRisk.
Book Synopsis Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond by : Thomas E. Berghage
Download or read book Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond written by Thomas E. Berghage and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2014-07-29 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For years, financial analysts have struggled with the fact that practically all the financial measures used to analyze corporate performance lack predictive power when it comes to forecasting the market performance of the company's stock. Numerous academic studies have documented and reported this lack of predictability. Correlation coefficients close to zero have been reported for the relationship between stock market performance and such critical financial measures as earnings growth, sales growth, price/earnings ratio, return on equity, intrinsic value (models based on discounted cash flow or dividends), and many more. It is this disconnect between traditional financial measures and the performance of stocks in the marketplace that has led to the now-famous efficient market hypothesis, the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. To accept the idea that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable is to say that nothing a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market, and that is absurd. It would be more accurate to say that everything a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market. The problem with this statement is that it makes the forecasting of future stock performance so complex that it removes it from the realm of human solution.
Book Synopsis Calculating Catastrophe by : Gordon Woo
Download or read book Calculating Catastrophe written by Gordon Woo and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets.The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk.
Book Synopsis Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk by : Dale Lehman
Download or read book Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk written by Dale Lehman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-11 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk provides a guide of how to construct applied decision analysis models in spreadsheets. The focus is on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to provide quantitative assessment of uncertainties and key risk drivers. The book presents numerous examples based on real data and relevant practical decisions in a variety of settings, including health care, transportation, finance, natural resources, technology, manufacturing, retail, and sports and entertainment. All examples involve decision problems where uncertainties make simulation modeling useful to obtain decision insights and explore alternative choices. Good spreadsheet modeling practices are highlighted. The book is suitable for graduate students or advanced undergraduates in business, public policy, health care administration, or any field amenable to simulation modeling of decision problems. The book is also useful for applied practitioners seeking to build or enhance their spreadsheet modeling skills. Features Step-by-step examples of spreadsheet modeling and risk analysis in a variety of fields Description of probabilistic methods, their theoretical foundations, and their practical application in a spreadsheet environment Extensive example models and exercises based on real data and relevant decision problems Comprehensive use of the @Risk software for simulation analysis, including a free one-year educational software license
Book Synopsis China’s Insolvency Law and Interregional Cooperation by : Xinyi Gong
Download or read book China’s Insolvency Law and Interregional Cooperation written by Xinyi Gong and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-11-20 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a result of resumption of sovereignty over Hong Kong and Macao as well as the uncertain relationship between the Mainland and Taiwan, China has become a country composed of peculiar political compounds, resulting in four independent jurisdictions. This makes inter-regional legal cooperation a complicated yet compelling topic. Divided into five parts, this book considers possible solutions to problems in China’s inter-regional cross-border insolvency cooperation. These solutions are developed on the basis of two groups of comparative studies, including comparison among the cross-border insolvency systems of the four independent jurisdictions in China and comparison between EU Insolvency Regulation and the UNCITRAL Model Law. The author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the two systems and presents original recommendations for the way forward. The book will be a valuable resource for academics and policy makers in insolvency law, Asian law and comparative law.
Book Synopsis Seeking Balance by : A. Pablo Iannone
Download or read book Seeking Balance written by A. Pablo Iannone and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-28 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The problems and issues arising from globalization are difficult to resolve, in part because our ways of conceptualizing the conflicts and responding to them are inadequate. This book fills this gap, conceiving of globalization as a consequence of economic, political, technological, scientific, and cultural changes. A. Pablo Iannone provides a taxonomy of globalization processes, investigates the consequences of each, and formulates a comprehensive approach for dealing with them.While his emphasis is philosophical, this is not a single-discipline book. Rather, it belongs at the intersection of philosophy, economics, political science, and technology. Its discussions address issues concerning globalization and correlate the processes of fragmentation and dislocation in a realistic manner.Iannone focuses on concrete and current cases, from the global economic and financial issues posed by the multi-centered nature of contemporary business and technology, through the pressures of ever increasing information overload across the planet. He explores the environmental and social challenges associated with current Amazonian development and its significance to weather patterns on Earth. He considers the issues surrounding the use of robots in war from Pakistan through Mexico, and the militarization of space. In short, the approach, while based on theoretical concerns, is solidly grounded in highly practical applications, which are global in their implications.
Book Synopsis Financial Models and Society by : Ekaterina Svetlova
Download or read book Financial Models and Society written by Ekaterina Svetlova and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2018-02-23 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This innovative book employs the social studies of finance approach which aims to enhance the dialogue between finance and sociology by addressing the blind spots of economic and financial theories. In so doing, it challenges the accusations made towards financial models in the aftermath of the last economic crisis and argues that they cannot be condemned indiscriminately. Their influence on markets and society is not straightforward, but determined by the many ways in which models are created and then used. Ekaterina Svetlova analyses the various patterns of the application of models in asset management, risk management and financial engineering to demonstrate that their power is far more fragile than widespread criticism would indicate.
Download or read book The Black Swan written by Mercedes Lackey and published by Astra Publishing House. This book was released on 2000-05-01 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After his wife's untimely death, a powerful sorcerer dedicates his life to seeking revenge against all womankind. He turns his captives into beautiful swans--who briefly regain human form by the fleeting light of the moon. Only Odette, noblest of the enchanted flock, has the courage to confront her captor. But can she gain the allies she needs to free herself and the other swan-maidens from their magical slavery?A monumental tale of loyalty and betrayal, of magic good and evil, of love both carnal and pure, and of the duality of human nature, The Black Swan is a rich tapestry which is sure to become an all-time masterpiece of fantasy.
