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Spot Price Modeling And The Valuation Of Electricity Forward Contracts
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Book Synopsis Valuation, Hedging and Speculation in Competitive Electricity Markets by : Petter L. Skantze
Download or read book Valuation, Hedging and Speculation in Competitive Electricity Markets written by Petter L. Skantze and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The challenges currently facing particIpants m competitive electricity markets are unique and staggering: unprecedented price volatility, a crippling lack of historical market data on which to test new modeling approaches, and a continuously changing regulatory structure. Meeting these challenges will require the knowledge and experience of both the engineering and finance communities. Yet the two communities continue to largely ignore each other. The finance community believes that engineering models are too detailed and complex to be practically applicable in the fast changing market environment. Engineers counter that the finance models are merely statistical regressions, lacking the necessary structure to capture the true dynamic properties of complex power systems. While both views have merit, neither group has by themselves been able to produce effective tools for meeting industry challenges. The goal of this book is to convey the fundamental differences between electricity and other traded commodities, and the impact these differences have on valuation, hedging and operational decisions made by market participants. The optimization problems associated with these decisions are formulated in the context of the market realities of today's power industry, including a lack of liquidity on forward and options markets, limited availability of historical data, and constantly changing regulatory structures.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets by : Fred Espen Benth
Download or read book Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets written by Fred Espen Benth and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives.This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. Ornstein?Uhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice.
Book Synopsis The Econometrics of Energy Systems by : Jacques Girod
Download or read book The Econometrics of Energy Systems written by Jacques Girod and published by Springer. This book was released on 2006-12-14 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The complexity and volatility of energy markets creates strong demand for quantitative analysis and econometric techniques. This book offers an introduction to the state of the art in econometric modelling applied to the most pertinent issues in today's energy markets for a better understanding of the working of energy systems and energy economics.
Book Synopsis Fuzzy Logic in Financial Analysis by : Anna Maria Gil-Lafuente
Download or read book Fuzzy Logic in Financial Analysis written by Anna Maria Gil-Lafuente and published by Springer. This book was released on 2006-06-10 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today’s increasingly complex and uncertain business environment, financial analysis is yet more critical to business managers who tackle problems of an economic or business nature. Knowledge based on formal logic and even experience becomes less sufficient. This volume systematically sets out the basic elements on which to base financial analysis for business in the new century. It incorporates a previous work that can serve as the basis and foundation for the new contributions that are now being made in the field of financial economy and intend to provide business with instruments and models suitable for dealing with the new economic context. In dealing with rapid and unpredictable changes in technological and business conditions, it postulates a growing reliance on the opinions of experts instead of past data or probabilistic forecasts, which is a radical change but may yield fruitful results. For this reason, much emphasis is devoted to the problem of aggregation of the opinion of experts in the financial field, with the object of limiting, wherever possible, the subjective component of the opinions and making sure that the decisions have the best guarantee of reaching the desired objectives.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Book Synopsis Energy and Power Risk Management by : Alexander Eydeland
Download or read book Energy and Power Risk Management written by Alexander Eydeland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-02-03 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Energy and Power Risk Management "Energy and Power Risk Management identifies and addresses the key issues in the development of the turbulent energy industry and the challenges it poses to market players. An insightful and far-reaching book written by two renowned professionals." -Helyette Geman, Professor of Finance University Paris Dauphine and ESSEC "The most up-to-date and comprehensive book on managing energy price risk in the natural gas and power markets. An absolute imperative for energy traders and energy risk management professionals." -Vincent Kaminski, Managing Director Citadel Investment Group LLC "Eydeland and Wolyniec's work does an excellent job of outlining the methods needed to measure and manage risk in the volatile energy market." -Gerald G. Fleming, Vice President, Head of East Power Trading, TXU Energy Trading "This book combines academic rigor with real-world practicality. It is a must-read for anyone in energy risk management or asset valuation." -Ron Erd, Senior Vice President American Electric Power
Book Synopsis Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives by : Fred Espen Benth
Download or read book Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives written by Fred Espen Benth and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weather derivatives provide a tool for weather risk management, and the markets for these exotic financial products are gradually emerging in size and importance. This unique monograph presents a unified approach to the modeling and analysis of such weather derivatives, including financial contracts on temperature, wind and rain. Based on a deep statistical analysis of weather factors, sophisticated stochastic processes are introduced modeling the time and space dynamics. Applying ideas from the modern theory of mathematical finance, weather derivatives are priced, and questions of hedging analyzed. The treatise contains an in-depth analysis of typical weather contracts traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), including so-called CDD and HDD futures. The statistical analysis of weather variables is based on a large data set from Lithuania.The monograph includes the research done by the authors over the last decade on weather markets. Their work has gained considerable attention, and has been applied in many contexts.
Book Synopsis Commodities and Commodity Derivatives by : Helyette Geman
Download or read book Commodities and Commodity Derivatives written by Helyette Geman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-24 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last few years have been a watershed for the commodities, cash and derivatives industry. New regulations and products have led to an explosion in the commodities markets, creating a new asset for investors that includes hedge funds as well as University endowments, and has resulted in a spectacular growth in spot and derivative trading. This book covers hard and soft commodities (energy, agriculture and metals) and analyses: Economic and geopolitical issues in commodities markets Commodity price and volume risk Stochastic modelling of commodity spot prices and forward curves Real options valuation and hedging of physical assets in the energy industry It is required reading for energy companies and utilities practitioners, commodity cash and derivatives traders in investment banks, the Agrifood business, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Hedge Funds. In Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, Hélyette Geman shows her powerful command of the subject by combining a rigorous development of its mathematical modelling with a compact institutional presentation of the arcane characteristics of commodities that makes the complex analysis of commodities derivative securities accessible to both the academic and practitioner who wants a deep foundation and a breadth of different market applications. It is destined to be a "must have" on the subject.” —Robert Merton, Professor, Harvard Business School "A marvelously comprehensive book of interest to academics and practitioners alike, by one of the world's foremost experts in the field." —Oldrich Vasicek, founder, KMV
Book Synopsis The Application of Econophysics by : Hideki Takayasu
Download or read book The Application of Econophysics written by Hideki Takayasu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econophysics is a newborn field of science bridging economics and physics. A special feature of this new science is the data analysis of high-precision market data. In economics arbitrage opportunity is strictly denied; however, by observing high-precision data we can prove the existence of arbitrage opportunity. Also, financial technology neglects the possibility of market prediction; however, in this book you can find many examples of predicted events. There are other surprising findings. This volume is the proceedings of a workshop on "application of econophysics" at which leading international researchers discussed their most recent results.
Book Synopsis Financial Pricing Models in Continuous Time and Kalman Filtering by : B.Philipp Kellerhals
Download or read book Financial Pricing Models in Continuous Time and Kalman Filtering written by B.Philipp Kellerhals and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Straight after its invention in the early sixties, the Kalman filter approach became part of the astronautical guidance system of the Apollo project and therefore received immediate acceptance in the field of electrical engineer ing. This sounds similar to the well known success story of the Black-Scholes model in finance, which has been implemented by the Chicago Board of Op tions Exchange (CBOE) within a few month after its publication in 1973. Recently, the Kalman filter approach has been discovered as a comfortable estimation tool in continuous time finance, bringing together seemingly un related methods from different fields. Dr. B. Philipp Kellerhals contributes to this topic in several respects. Specialized versions of the Kalman filter are developed and implemented for three different continuous time pricing models: A pricing model for closed-end funds, taking advantage from the fact, that the net asset value is observable, a term structure model, where the market price of risk itself is a stochastic variable, and a model for electricity forwards, where the volatility of the price process is stochastic. Beside the fact that these three models can be treated independently, the book as a whole gives the interested reader a comprehensive account of the requirements and capabilities of the Kalman filter applied to finance models. While the first model uses a linear version of the filter, the second model using LIBOR and swap market data requires an extended Kalman filter. Finally, the third model leads to a non-linear transition equation of the filter algorithm.
Book Synopsis Energy Risk: Valuing and Managing Energy Derivatives by : Dragana Pilipovic
Download or read book Energy Risk: Valuing and Managing Energy Derivatives written by Dragana Pilipovic and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2007-08-13 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Latest Methods and Strategies for Successfully Trading and Managing Risk in Today's Volatile Energy Markets The updated Second Edition of Energy Risk presents an authoritative overview of the contemporary energy trading arena, combining the lesson's from the last decade with proven methods and strategies required for valuing energy derivatives and managing risk in these ever volatile markets. Written by renowned energy risk expert Dragana Pilipovic this revised classic examines market behavior, covering both quantitative analysis and trader-oriented insights. The book shows how to establish a modeling process that involves the key players_managers, traders, quantitative analysts, and engineers_and provides practical answers to energy trading and risk management questions. The Second Edition of Energy Risk features: Detailed coverage of the primary factors that influence energy risk Techniques for building marked-to-market forward price curves, creating volatility matrices, and valuing complex options Specific guidelines and tools for achieving risk goals New to this edition: three new chapters on the emerging energy market and marked-to-market issues; new material on energy-specific models, seasonal effects, and the derivation of the mean-reverting price model; and more
Book Synopsis Martingale Methods in Financial Modelling by : Marek Musiela
Download or read book Martingale Methods in Financial Modelling written by Marek Musiela and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and self-contained treatment of the theory and practice of option pricing. The role of martingale methods in financial modeling is exposed. The emphasis is on using arbitrage-free models already accepted by the market as well as on building the new ones. Standard calls and puts together with numerous examples of exotic options such as barriers and quantos, for example on stocks, indices, currencies and interest rates are analysed. The importance of choosing a convenient numeraire in price calculations is explained. Mathematical and financial language is used so as to bring mathematicians closer to practical problems of finance and presenting to the industry useful maths tools.
Download or read book Energy Derivatives written by Les Clewlow and published by Twayne Publishers. This book was released on 2000 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Electricity Derivatives by : René Aïd
Download or read book Electricity Derivatives written by René Aïd and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-01-14 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offering a concise but complete survey of the common features of the microstructure of electricity markets, this book describes the state of the art in the different proposed electricity price models for pricing derivatives and in the numerical methods used to price and hedge the most prominent derivatives in electricity markets, namely power plants and swings. The mathematical content of the book has intentionally been made light in order to concentrate on the main subject matter, avoiding fastidious computations. Wherever possible, the models are illustrated by diagrams. The book should allow prospective researchers in the field of electricity derivatives to focus on the actual difficulties associated with the subject. It should also offer a brief but exhaustive overview of the latest techniques used by financial engineers in energy utilities and energy trading desks.
Book Synopsis Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand by : Kevin Berk
Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand written by Kevin Berk and published by Springer Spektrum. This book was released on 2015-01-30 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants.
Book Synopsis Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices by : Rafal Weron
Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices written by Rafal Weron and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-01-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
Book Synopsis A Fire Upon The Deep by : Vernor Vinge
Download or read book A Fire Upon The Deep written by Vernor Vinge and published by Tor Science Fiction. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 626 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now with a new introduction for the Tor Essentials line, A Fire Upon the Deep is sure to bring a new generation of SF fans to Vinge's award-winning works. A Hugo Award-winning Novel! “Vinge is one of the best visionary writers of SF today.”-David Brin Thousands of years in the future, humanity is no longer alone in a universe where a mind's potential is determined by its location in space, from superintelligent entities in the Transcend, to the limited minds of the Unthinking Depths, where only simple creatures, and technology, can function. Nobody knows what strange force partitioned space into these "regions of thought," but when the warring Straumli realm use an ancient Transcendent artifact as a weapon, they unwittingly unleash an awesome power that destroys thousands of worlds and enslaves all natural and artificial intelligence. Fleeing this galactic threat, Ravna crash lands on a strange world with a ship-hold full of cryogenically frozen children, the only survivors from a destroyed space-lab. They are taken captive by the Tines, an alien race with a harsh medieval culture, and used as pawns in a ruthless power struggle. Tor books by Vernor Vinge Zones of Thought Series A Fire Upon The Deep A Deepness In The Sky The Children of The Sky Realtime/Bobble Series The Peace War Marooned in Realtime Other Novels The Witling Tatja Grimm's World Rainbows End Collections Collected Stories of Vernor Vinge True Names At the Publisher's request, this title is being sold without Digital Rights Management Software (DRM) applied.
