Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

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Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 1324004789
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by : John Kay

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy

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Author :
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 0393247031
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (932 download)

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Book Synopsis The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy by : Mervyn King

Download or read book The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy written by Mervyn King and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2016-03-21 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Mervyn King may well have written the most important book to come out of the financial crisis. Agree or disagree, King’s visionary ideas deserve the attention of everyone from economics students to heads of state.” —Lawrence H. Summers Something is wrong with our banking system. We all sense that, but Mervyn King knows it firsthand; his ten years at the helm of the Bank of England, including at the height of the financial crisis, revealed profound truths about the mechanisms of our capitalist society. In The End of Alchemy he offers us an essential work about the history and future of money and banking, the keys to modern finance. The Industrial Revolution built the foundation of our modern capitalist age. Yet the flowering of technological innovations during that dynamic period relied on the widespread adoption of two much older ideas: the creation of paper money and the invention of banks that issued credit. We take these systems for granted today, yet at their core both ideas were revolutionary and almost magical. Common paper became as precious as gold, and risky long-term loans were transformed into safe short-term bank deposits. As King argues, this is financial alchemy—the creation of extraordinary financial powers that defy reality and common sense. Faith in these powers has led to huge benefits; the liquidity they create has fueled economic growth for two centuries now. However, they have also produced an unending string of economic disasters, from hyperinflations to banking collapses to the recent global recession and current stagnation. How do we reconcile the potent strengths of these ideas with their inherent weaknesses? King draws on his unique experience to present fresh interpretations of these economic forces and to point the way forward for the global economy. His bold solutions cut through current overstuffed and needlessly complex legislation to provide a clear path to durable prosperity and the end of overreliance on the alchemy of our financial ancestors.

Twenty Years of Inflation Targeting

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Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139491253
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Twenty Years of Inflation Targeting by : David Cobham

Download or read book Twenty Years of Inflation Targeting written by David Cobham and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-09-16 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is now a remarkably strong consensus among academics and professional economists that central banks should adopt explicit inflation targets and that all key monetary policy decisions, especially those concerning interest rates, should be made with a view to ensuring that these targets are achieved. This book provides a comprehensive review of the experience of inflation targeting since its introduction in New Zealand in 1989 and looks in detail at what we can learn from the past twenty years and what challenges we may face in the future. Written by a distinguished team of academics and professional economists from central banks around the world, the book covers a wide range of issues including many that have arisen as a result of the recent financial crisis. It should be read by anyone concerned with better understanding inflation targeting and its past, present and future role within monetary policy.

Re-appointment of Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England

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Author :
Publisher : The Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 9780215520852
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (28 download)

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Book Synopsis Re-appointment of Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England by : Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Treasury Committee

Download or read book Re-appointment of Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England written by Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Treasury Committee and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2008 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Re-appointment of Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England : Tenth report of session 2007-08, Vol. 2: Oral and written Evidence

The Globalizers

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Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 0801456010
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis The Globalizers by : Ngaire Woods

Download or read book The Globalizers written by Ngaire Woods and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2014-11-15 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The IMF and the World Bank have integrated a large number of countries into the world economy by requiring governments to open up to global trade, investment, and capital. They have not done this out of pure economic zeal. Politics and their own rules and habits explain much of why they have presented globalization as a solution to challenges they have faced in the world economy."—from the IntroductionThe greatest success of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank has been as globalizers. But at whose cost? Would borrowing countries be better off without the IMF and World Bank? This book takes readers inside these institutions and the governments they work with. Ngaire Woods brilliantly decodes what they do and why they do it, using original research, extensive interviews carried out across many countries and institutions, and scholarship from the fields of economics, law, and politics.The Globalizers focuses on both the political context of IMF and World Bank actions and their impact on the countries in which they intervene. After describing the important debates between U.S. planners and the Allies in the 1944 foundation at Bretton Woods, she analyzes understandings of their missions over the last quarter century. She traces the impact of the Bank and the Fund in the recent economic history of Mexico, of post-Soviet Russia, and in the independent states of Africa. Woods concludes by proposing a range of reforms that would make the World Bank and the IMF more effective, equitable, and just.

Lords of Finance

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Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 9781594201820
Total Pages : 584 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis Lords of Finance by : Liaquat Ahamed

Download or read book Lords of Finance written by Liaquat Ahamed and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2009 with total page 584 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Argues that the stock market crash of 1929 and subsequent Depression occurred as a result of poor decisions on the part of four central bankers who jointly attempted to reconstruct international finance by reinstating the gold standard.

Radical Uncertainty

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Publisher : Bridge Street Press
ISBN 13 : 9780349143996
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (439 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty by : Mervyn King

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty written by Mervyn King and published by Bridge Street Press. This book was released on 2021-09-02 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Stress Test

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Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 0804138605
Total Pages : 610 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Stress Test by : Timothy F. Geithner

Download or read book Stress Test written by Timothy F. Geithner and published by Crown. This book was released on 2014-05-12 with total page 610 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New York Times Bestseller Washington Post Bestseller Los Angeles Times Bestseller Stress Test is the story of Tim Geithner’s education in financial crises. As president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and then as President Barack Obama’s secretary of the Treasury, Timothy F. Geithner helped the United States navigate the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, from boom to bust to rescue to recovery. In a candid, riveting, and historically illuminating memoir, he takes readers behind the scenes of the crisis, explaining the hard choices and politically unpalatable decisions he made to repair a broken financial system and prevent the collapse of the Main Street economy. This is the inside story of how a small group of policy makers—in a thick fog of uncertainty, with unimaginably high stakes—helped avoid a second depression but lost the American people doing it. Stress Test is also a valuable guide to how governments can better manage financial crises, because this one won’t be the last. Stress Test reveals a side of Secretary Geithner the public has never seen, starting with his childhood as an American abroad. He recounts his early days as a young Treasury official helping to fight the international financial crises of the 1990s, then describes what he saw, what he did, and what he missed at the New York Fed before the Wall Street boom went bust. He takes readers inside the room as the crisis began, intensified, and burned out of control, discussing the most controversial episodes of his tenures at the New York Fed and the Treasury, including the rescue of Bear Stearns; the harrowing weekend when Lehman Brothers failed; the searing crucible of the AIG rescue as well as the furor over the firm’s lavish bonuses; the battles inside the Obama administration over his widely criticized but ultimately successful plan to end the crisis; and the bracing fight for the most sweeping financial reforms in more than seventy years. Secretary Geithner also describes the aftershocks of the crisis, including the administration’s efforts to address high unemployment, a series of brutal political battles over deficits and debt, and the drama over Europe’s repeated flirtations with the economic abyss. Secretary Geithner is not a politician, but he has things to say about politics—the silliness, the nastiness, the toll it took on his family. But in the end, Stress Test is a hopeful story about public service. In this revealing memoir, Tim Geithner explains how America withstood the ultimate stress test of its political and financial systems.

Issues in the Governance of Central Banks

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789291317912
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (179 download)

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Book Synopsis Issues in the Governance of Central Banks by :

Download or read book Issues in the Governance of Central Banks written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report by the Central Bank Governance Group presents information intended to help decision-makers set up governance arrangements that are most suitable for their own circumstances. The report draws on a large body of information on the design and operation of central banks that the BIS has brought together since it initiated work on central bank governance in the early 1990s. The need to deal with chronic inflation in the 1970s and 1980s prompted the identification of price stability as a formal central bank objective and led to a significant reworking of governance arrangements. The current global financial crisis could have equally important implications for central banks, particularly with respect to their role in fostering financial stability. Although it is too early to know how central banking will change as a result, the report takes an important first step in identifying governance questions that the crisis poses.

Unelected Power

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691196303
Total Pages : 662 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Unelected Power by : Paul Tucker

Download or read book Unelected Power written by Paul Tucker and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-09-10 with total page 662 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tucker presents guiding principles for ensuring that central bankers and other unelected policymakers remain stewards of the common good.

Till Time's Last Sand

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Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN 13 : 140886858X
Total Pages : 897 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (88 download)

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Book Synopsis Till Time's Last Sand by : David Kynaston

Download or read book Till Time's Last Sand written by David Kynaston and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2017-09-07 with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ____________________ The authorised history of the Bank of England by the bestselling David Kynaston, 'the most entertaining historian alive' (Spectator). 'Kynaston's aim is to provide a history of the Bank for the general reader and in this he triumphantly succeeds, providing a worthy complement to the notable series of books on different periods of the Bank's history ... wonderfully readable' Financial Times 'Not an ordinary bank, but a great engine of state,' Adam Smith declared of the Bank of England as long ago as 1776. The Bank is now over 320 years old, and throughout almost all that time it has been central to British history. Yet to most people, despite its increasingly high profile, its history is largely unknown. Till Time's Last Sand by David Kynaston is the first authoritative and accessible single-volume history of the Bank of England, opening with the Bank's founding in 1694 in the midst of the English financial revolution and closing in 2013 with Mark Carney succeeding Mervyn King as Governor. This is a history that fully addresses the important debates over the years about the Bank's purpose and modes of operation and that covers such aspects as monetary and exchange-rate policies and relations with government, the City and other central banks. Yet this is also a narrative that does full justice to the leading episodes and characters of the Bank, while taking care to evoke a real sense of the place itself, with its often distinctively domestic side. Deploying an array of piquant and revealing material from the Bank's rich archives, Till Time's Last Sand is a multi-layered and insightful portrait of one of our most important national institutions, from one of our leading historians. ____________________ 'The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street has been waiting for a biographer who could do justice to the richness of her story ... This is the work of a scholar with a gift for illuminating every square inch of each enormous canvas he chooses to paint ... Kynaston brings characters large and small to life' Literary Review 'full of human detail ... an exemplary narrative history, with the archives plundered judiciously and plenty of focus on people and their quirks ... rendered on an entertainingly human scale' The Times 'A triumph ... this portrait of the Bank of England really is fascinating, at times even gripping' Sunday Telegraph

Financial Regulation, Climate Change, and the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy: A Survey of the Issues

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356529
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Regulation, Climate Change, and the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy: A Survey of the Issues by : Mr. Dimitri G Demekas

Download or read book Financial Regulation, Climate Change, and the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy: A Survey of the Issues written by Mr. Dimitri G Demekas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-12-17 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are demands on central banks and financial regulators to take on new responsibilities for supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. Regulators can indeed facilitate the reorientation of financial flows necessary for the transition. But their powers should not be overestimated. Their diagnostic and policy toolkits are still in their infancy. They cannot (and should not) expand their mandate unilaterally. Taking on these new responsibilities can also have potential pitfalls and unintended consequences. Ultimately, financial regulators cannot deliver a low-carbon economy by themselves and should not risk being caught again in the role of ‘the only game in town.’

Adam Smith, Radical and Egalitarian

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349738220
Total Pages : 193 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (497 download)

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Book Synopsis Adam Smith, Radical and Egalitarian by : I. McLean

Download or read book Adam Smith, Radical and Egalitarian written by I. McLean and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-30 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Iain McLean reexamines the radical legacy of AdamSmith, arguing that Smith was a radical egalitarian and that his work supported all three of the slogans of the French Revolution: liberty, equality, and fraternity. McLean suggests that Smith's The Theory of Moral Sentiments , published in 1759, crystallized the radically egalitarian philosophy of the Scottish Enlightenment. This book brings Smith into full view, showing how much of modern economics and political science is in Smith. The author locates Smith's heritage firmly within the context of the Enlightenment, while addressing the international links between American, French, and Scottish histories of political thought.

Value(s)

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Publisher : PublicAffairs
ISBN 13 : 154176871X
Total Pages : 608 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (417 download)

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Book Synopsis Value(s) by : Mark Carney

Download or read book Value(s) written by Mark Carney and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2021-05-25 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A bold, urgent argument on the misplacement of value in financial markets and how we can and need to maximize value for the many, not few. As an economist and former banker, Mark Carney has spent his life in various financial roles, in both the public and private sector. VALUE(S) is a meditation on his experiences that examines the short-comings and challenges of the market in the past decade which he argues has led to rampant, public distrust and the need for radical change. Focusing on four major crises-the Global Financial Crisis, the Global Health Crisis, Climate Change and the 4th Industrial Revolution-- Carney proposes responses to each. His solutions are tangible action plans for leaders, companies and countries to transform the value of the market back into the value of humanity.

The Wealth Effect

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107153743
Total Pages : 597 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis The Wealth Effect by : Jeffrey M. Chwieroth

Download or read book The Wealth Effect written by Jeffrey M. Chwieroth and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-03-21 with total page 597 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Shows how the politics of banking crises has been transformed by the growing 'great expectations' among middle class voters that governments should protect their wealth.

Inflation Expectations

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Monetary Policy Strategy

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262134829
Total Pages : 561 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (621 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Strategy by : Frederic S. Mishkin

Download or read book Monetary Policy Strategy written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book by a leading authority on monetary policy offers a unique view of the subject from the perspectives of both scholar and practitioner. Frederic Mishkin is not only an academic expert in the field but also a high-level policymaker. He is especially well positioned to discuss the changes in the conduct of monetary policy in recent years, in particular the turn to inflation targeting. Monetary Policy Strategydescribes his work over the last ten years, offering published papers, new introductory material, and a summing up, "Everything You Wanted to Know about Monetary Policy Strategy, But Were Afraid to Ask," which reflects on what we have learned about monetary policy over the last thirty years. Mishkin blends theory, econometric evidence, and extensive case studies of monetary policy in advanced and emerging market and transition economies. Throughout, his focus is on these key areas: the importance of price stability and a nominal anch fiscal and financial preconditions for achieving price stability; central bank independence as an additional precondition; central bank accountability; the rationale for inflation targeting; the optimal inflation target; central bank transparency and communication; and the role of asset prices in monetary policy.