Speculation, Risk Premia and Expectations in the Yield Curve

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (866 download)

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Book Synopsis Speculation, Risk Premia and Expectations in the Yield Curve by : Francisco Barillas

Download or read book Speculation, Risk Premia and Expectations in the Yield Curve written by Francisco Barillas and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An affine asset pricing model in which agents have rational but heterogeneous expectations about future asset prices is developed. We estimate the model using data on bond yields and individual survey responses from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectations about short rates (ii) risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneous expectations about the resale value of a bond. We prove that the speculative term must be orthogonal to public information in real time and therefore statistically distinct from risk premia. Empirically, the speculative component is quantitatively important, accounting for up to one percentage point of US yields. Furthermore, estimates of historical risk premia from the heterogeneous information model are less volatile than, and negatively correlated with, risk premia estimated using a standard Affine Gaussian Term Structure model.

Specullation, Risk Premia and Expectations in the Yield Curve

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (867 download)

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Book Synopsis Specullation, Risk Premia and Expectations in the Yield Curve by : Francisco Barillas

Download or read book Specullation, Risk Premia and Expectations in the Yield Curve written by Francisco Barillas and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Expectations and Risk Premia at 8:30am

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (118 download)

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Book Synopsis Expectations and Risk Premia at 8:30am by : Peter Hördahl

Download or read book Expectations and Risk Premia at 8:30am written by Peter Hördahl and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (255 download)

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Book Synopsis Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets by : Wei Xiong

Download or read book Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets written by Wei Xiong and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a dynamic equilibrium model of bond markets, in which two groups of agents hold heterogeneous expectations about future economic conditions. Our model shows that heterogeneous expectations can not only lead to speculative trading, but can also help resolve several challenges to standard representative-agent models of the yield curve. First, the relative wealth fluctuation between the two groups of agents caused by their speculative positions amplifies bond yield volatility, thus providing an explanation for the "excessive volatility puzzle" of bond yields. In addition, the fluctuation in the two groups' expectations and relative wealth also generates time-varying risk premia, which in turn can help explain the failure of the expectation hypothesis. These implications, essentially induced by trading between agents, highlight the importance of incorporating heterogeneous expectations into economic analysis of bond markets.

The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319703447
Total Pages : 430 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money by : John Maynard Keynes

Download or read book The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-20 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book was originally published by Macmillan in 1936. It was voted the top Academic Book that Shaped Modern Britain by Academic Book Week (UK) in 2017, and in 2011 was placed on Time Magazine's top 100 non-fiction books written in English since 1923. Reissued with a fresh Introduction by the Nobel-prize winner Paul Krugman and a new Afterword by Keynes’ biographer Robert Skidelsky, this important work is made available to a new generation. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money transformed economics and changed the face of modern macroeconomics. Keynes’ argument is based on the idea that the level of employment is not determined by the price of labour, but by the spending of money. It gave way to an entirely new approach where employment, inflation and the market economy are concerned. Highly provocative at its time of publication, this book and Keynes’ theories continue to remain the subject of much support and praise, criticism and debate. Economists at any stage in their career will enjoy revisiting this treatise and observing the relevance of Keynes’ work in today’s contemporary climate.

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

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Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1933019158
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Real Economy by : John H. Cochrane

Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

Factor Investing and Asset Allocation: A Business Cycle Perspective

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Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1944960155
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (449 download)

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Book Synopsis Factor Investing and Asset Allocation: A Business Cycle Perspective by : Vasant Naik

Download or read book Factor Investing and Asset Allocation: A Business Cycle Perspective written by Vasant Naik and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-12-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642215750
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (422 download)

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Book Synopsis The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia by : Felix Geiger

Download or read book The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia written by Felix Geiger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-17 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book’s approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.

Handbook of Economic Expectations

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Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128234768
Total Pages : 876 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (282 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Expectations by : Ruediger Bachmann

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. - Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures - Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature - Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics

Identifying Speculative Bubbles

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498332072
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Identifying Speculative Bubbles by : Bradley Jones

Download or read book Identifying Speculative Bubbles written by Bradley Jones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-11-19 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the issue of how best to identify speculative asset bubbles (in real-time) remains in flux. This owes to the difficulty of disentangling irrational investor exuberance from the rational response to lower risk based on price behavior alone. In response, I introduce a two-pillar (price and quantity) approach for financial market surveillance. The intuition is straightforward: while asset pricing models comprise a valuable component of the surveillance toolkit, risk taking behavior, and financial vulnerabilities more generally, can also be reflected in subtler, non-price terms. The framework appears to capture stylized facts of asset booms and busts—some of the largest in history have been associated with below average risk premia (captured by the ‘pricing pillar’) and unusually elevated patterns of issuance, trading volumes, fund flows, and survey-based return projections (reflected in the ‘quantities pillar’). Based on a comparison to past boom-bust episodes, the approach is signaling mounting vulnerabilities in risky U.S. credit markets. Policy makers and regulators should be attune to any further deterioration in issuance quality, and where possible, take steps to ensure the post-crisis financial infrastructure is braced to accommodate a re-pricing in credit risk.

Inflation Expectations

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 132 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (97 download)

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Book Synopsis The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Reuben A. Kessel

Download or read book The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Reuben A. Kessel and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451853750
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates by : Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson

Download or read book Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-09-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.

Introduction to Finance

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118492676
Total Pages : 608 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (184 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Finance by : Ronald W. Melicher

Download or read book Introduction to Finance written by Ronald W. Melicher and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-10-28 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fifteenth edition of Introduction to Finance: Markets, Investments, and Financial Management builds upon the successes of its earlier editions while maintaining a fresh and up-to-date coverage of the field of finance. Distinguished authors Ron Melicher and Edgar Norton continue to cover the three major financial areas: institutions and markets, investments, and financial management. Their effective structure equips instructors with maximum flexibility for how the course is taught, and students with an integrated perspective of the different foundations of finance. This survey of the basic knowledge, concepts, and terms of the discipline is appropriate for all students. For those who do not plan to take additional courses in finance, it provides a valuable overview. For those who want to take additional coursework in finance, it provides a solid foundation for their future studies and careers.

The Term Structure of Interest Rates

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 96 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis The Term Structure of Interest Rates by : David Meiselman

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates written by David Meiselman and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Investment Management (Security Analysis and Portfolio Management), 19th Ed.

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Publisher : S. Chand Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9788121912488
Total Pages : 1112 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (124 download)

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Book Synopsis Investment Management (Security Analysis and Portfolio Management), 19th Ed. by : V.K.Bhalla

Download or read book Investment Management (Security Analysis and Portfolio Management), 19th Ed. written by V.K.Bhalla and published by S. Chand Publishing. This book was released on 2008-06 with total page 1112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: SECURITY ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT. This 5th Edition , is thoroughly revised and updated. It describes techniques, vehicles, and strategies of the funds of an individual investor(s).For the students of Management, Commerce, Professional Course of CA, CS, ICWA, Professional of Financial Institutions and Policy Makers.

Term Structure of Interest Rates

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400879787
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Burton Gordon Malkiel

Download or read book Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Burton Gordon Malkiel and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-08 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can expectations alone explain the yield differentials among bonds of different maturities? To what extend do attitudes toward risk and transactions costs influence the behavior of bond investors? Is it possible for the Federal Reserve to "twist" the interest-rate structure in accordance with its policy objectives? These are among the questions treated. Originally published in 1966. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.