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Author : Matthew D. Shapiro
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Sources of business cycle fluctuations written by Matthew D. Shapiro and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author : Kyungsoo Cha
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780549393498
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (934 download)
Download or read book Two Essays on the Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations written by Kyungsoo Cha and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Re-examining contributions of the 1930s U.S. financial crisis to the Great Depression. This paper tries to resolve the litmus test of macroeconomic theories, the Great Depression. Since the work of Friedman and Schwartz (1963), the contributions of the 1930s financial crisis to the Great Depression have been mainly interpreted via the money-output link with sticky nominal wages within the monetary paradigm. However, some macroeconomists recently argue the plausibility of the monetary explanation and devaluate the effects of the financial crisis. Thus, this paper provides empirical evidence on the plausibility of the monetary explanation and re-examines the contributions of the financial crisis shock to the Great Depression. Results show that it seems difficult to support the money-output link with sticky nominal wages. Nevertheless, the data displays that the financial crisis can account for large fractions of the total variability of aggregate variables during the Great Depression, implying the plausibility of the other channel which emphasizes a reduction in real intermediated investment through the ineffectiveness of financial intermediaries.
Download or read book Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Robert J. Gordon
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226304590
Total Pages : 882 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226978923
Total Pages : 613 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author : Solomos Solomou
Publisher : Manchester University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780719041518
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (415 download)
Download or read book Economic Cycles written by Solomos Solomou and published by Manchester University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?
Author : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451875657
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Author : Robert J. Barro
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 358 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Modern Business Cycle Theory written by Robert J. Barro and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The new classical approach to macroeconomics, which assumes that people gather and use economic information efficiently, has been the most important theoretical advance since the Keynesian revolution of the 1930s. This book surveys the major contributions of the "second generation" of proponents of the new classical approach, emphasizing real business cycle theories and applying them to a variety of phenomena. The chapters include expositions of growth theory, real models of business fluctuations, the informational role of prices, consumption, fiscal policy, rules versus discretion in monetary policy, time consistency and policy, and monetary models. Although the chapters are aimed at advanced undergraduate- and graduate-level students, they will also be of interest to researchers who are looking for a compact and original exposition of the new classical macroeconomics.
Author : Thomas E. Hall
Publisher : Praeger
ISBN 13 : 0275930858
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (759 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Thomas E. Hall and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1990-06-26 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a concise and and up-to-date survey of business cycles, discussing not only early theories of the business cycle and Keynesian and monetarist models, but also the rational expectationist and new Keynesian models along with actual business cycles. Hall traces the history of business cycles from the panic of 1907 to the long cyclical expansion beginning in late 1982. ISBN 0-275-93085-8: $39.95.
Author : Thomas F. Cooley
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780691043234
Total Pages : 452 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (432 download)
Download or read book Frontiers of Business Cycle Research written by Thomas F. Cooley and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1995-02-26 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t
Author : David N. DeJong
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 14 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (349 download)
Download or read book Keynes Vs. Prescott and Solow written by David N. DeJong and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 524 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (4 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1927 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "First printing, July, 1927.""A rewriting, based on new and fuller statistical material, of his book on 'Business cycles, ' published in 1913"--Foreword.
Author : Khurshid M. Kiani
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 134 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Business Cycle Fluctuations and Economic Policy written by Khurshid M. Kiani and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights the importance of studying similarity of business cycles across countries and answers the theoretical question about the behaviour of fluctuations in economic activity over different phases of business cycles. This is done by analysing cross-country data that provides sufficient empirical justifications on the behaviour of economic activity to conclude that business cycles are alike. Further, the book maintains, from the recent empirical research, that business cycles fluctuations are asymmetric. For empirical validation of the hypothesis that business cycles are asymmetric at least in the group of seven highly developed industrialised (G7) countries, real GDP growth rates from these countries are analysed using non-linear time series and switching time series models as well as in-sample and jack-knife out-of-sample forecasts from neural networks. While importance and application of non-linear and switching time series models are employed for testing possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in all the series after taking into account long memory, conditional heteroskedasticity, and time varying volatility in the series, usefulness of non-parametric techniques such as artificial neural networks forecasts are discussed and empirically tested to conclude that forecasts from neural networks are superior to the selected time series models. Additionally, the book presents a robust evidence of business cycle asymmetries in G7 countries, which is indeed, the answer to the basic research question on the behaviour of economic fluctuation over the business cycles. The book compares spill over and contagion effects due to business cycle fluctuations within the countries studied. In addition, having known the type of business cycle asymmetries, policy makers, empirical researchers, and forecasters would be able to employ appropriate forecasting models for forecasting impact of monetary policy or any other shock on the economies of these countries.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (933 download)
Download or read book Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations and Financial Spillovers written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis studies the importance of non-fundamental factors in economic and financial fluctuations. In particular, it studies how the economy responds to changes in expectations about economic fundamentals, independently of actual changes in those fundamentals, and to what extent financial fluctuations in one country spillover to other countries. The first chapter investigates how the economy reacts to the arrival of news about future technological progress. I find that the economy expands following a so-called news shock, but the bulk of the effect is delayed until technology starts to actually improve. News shocks explain around 30 percent of business cycle fluctuations, while their role is more important for explaining variations in forward-looking variables, such as stock prices and the term spread. In the second chapter, jointly written with Stephane Dées, studies the importance of animal spirits - defined as changes in expectations not supported by changes in fundamentals - for producing business cycles. We find that animal spirits are more important for business cycle fluctuations than permanent shocks. We use a novel identification scheme in a vector-autoregressive framework that exploits the fact that the econometrician has a richer data-set than consumers. In the third chapter, jointly written with Roberto De Santis, studies the extent and direction of spillovers, contagion and connectedness in European and US sovereign debt markets from 2005 to 2014. We use a new method that allows us to identify orthogonal country specific shocks in a panel of countries, employing restrictions on the relative size of the contemporaneous impact effect. We find that connectedness declined steadily between 2009 and 2012, indicating increased financial fragmentation. We find that Greece was a key source of systemic risk in 2010, explaining 20-30% of the variance of sovereign yields in stressed countries, while in 2011-2012 Italy, not Spain, was a key source of systemic risk.
Author : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 642 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1913 with total page 642 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781258230067
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (3 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles and Their Causes written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
