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Social Security And Demographic Uncertainty
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Book Synopsis Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty by :
Download or read book Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the U.S. population ages, the growing retiree-worker ratio increases the burden of public retirement systems. Is it efficient to maintain a defined benefit social security system? Should PAYGO benefits be reduced and private retirement savings be encouraged? The paper examines these questions in a neoclassical growth model with overlapping generations and demographic uncertainty. In case of shocks to the birth rate, I find that a defined-benefits social security system is more efficient ex-ante than a defined-contribution or privatized system. This is because small cohorts generally enjoy favorable wage and interest rate movements. They are in the labor force when the capital- labor ratio is high and they earn capital income when the capital-labor ratio is low. A defined benefit system helps to offset the effect of these factor price movements by imposing higher taxes on small cohorts. Neither defined-benefits nor its main alternative are fully efficient, however, because they all fail to adjust current retiree benefits in response to anticipated future demographic changes. In case of changes in life-expectancy, the efficient policy response depends on the predictability of deaths at the individual level and on the availability of annuities. Reduced benefits can be efficient if annuities markets are missing and the mortality change is such that accidental bequests decline, but not otherwise
Book Synopsis Aging and the Macroeconomy by : National Research Council
Download or read book Aging and the Macroeconomy written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-10 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
Book Synopsis Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment by : Jeffrey R. Brown
Download or read book Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment written by Jeffrey R. Brown and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-12-15 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment analyzes the changing economic and demographic environment in which social insurance programs that benefit elderly households will operate. It also explores how these ongoing trends will affect future beneficiaries, under both the current social security program and potential reform options. In this volume, an esteemed group of economists probes the challenge posed to Social Security by an aging population. The researchers examine trends in private sector retirement saving and health care costs, as well as the uncertain nature of future demographic, economic, and social trends—including marriage and divorce rates and female participation in the labor force. Recognizing the ambiguity of the environment in which the Social Security system must operate and evolve, this landmark book explores factors that policymakers must consider in designing policies that are resilient enough to survive in an economically and demographically uncertain society.
Book Synopsis Social Security in Periods of Demographic Uncertainty by : Kenneth William Smith
Download or read book Social Security in Periods of Demographic Uncertainty written by Kenneth William Smith and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :Christoph Hendrik Borgmann Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :3540266976 Total Pages :188 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (42 download)
Book Synopsis Social Security, Demographics, and Risk by : Christoph Hendrik Borgmann
Download or read book Social Security, Demographics, and Risk written by Christoph Hendrik Borgmann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-11-15 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume addresses the most important issues of the ongoing discussion on designing social security. It provides fundamental results for pay-as-you-go social security, covers the issues of social security during demographic transition and examines the inclusion of risk aspects into the analysis of social security. An empirical case study of Germany yields the surprising result that de facto the German public pension scheme already comprises an implicit demographic factor. This book allows a subtle understanding of how interacting risks are treated within different pension systems and thereby provides a basis for the development of innovative ways of risk sharing.
Book Synopsis Demography of Aging by : National Research Council
Download or read book Demography of Aging written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-02-01 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the United States and the rest of the world face the unprecedented challenge of aging populations, this volume draws together for the first time state-of-the-art work from the emerging field of the demography of aging. The nine chapters, written by experts from a variety of disciplines, highlight data sources and research approaches, results, and proposed strategies on a topic with major policy implications for labor forces, economic well-being, health care, and the need for social and family supports.
Book Synopsis The Aging Population in the Twenty-First Century by : National Research Council
Download or read book The Aging Population in the Twenty-First Century written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1988-02-01 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is not news that each of us grows old. What is relatively new, however, is that the average age of the American population is increasing. More and better information is required to assess, plan for, and meet the needs of a graying population. The Aging Population in the Twenty-First Century examines social, economic, and demographic changes among the aged, as well as many health-related topics: health promotion and disease prevention; quality of life; health care system financing and use; and the quality of careâ€"especially long-term care. Recommendations for increasing and improving the data availableâ€"as well as for ensuring timely access to themâ€"are also included.
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography by : Jakub Bijak
Download or read book Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography written by Jakub Bijak and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-12-09 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.
Book Synopsis Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability by : Juha M. Alho
Download or read book Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability written by Juha M. Alho and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-03-13 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.
Book Synopsis Demographic Forecasting by : Federico Girosi
Download or read book Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-08-24 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more
Book Synopsis Beyond Six Billion by : National Research Council
Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-10-11 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309474108 Total Pages :409 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Future Directions for the Demography of Aging by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Future Directions for the Demography of Aging written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-07-21 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Almost 25 years have passed since the Demography of Aging (1994) was published by the National Research Council. Future Directions for the Demography of Aging is, in many ways, the successor to that original volume. The Division of Behavioral and Social Research at the National Institute on Aging (NIA) asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to produce an authoritative guide to new directions in demography of aging. The papers published in this report were originally presented and discussed at a public workshop held in Washington, D.C., August 17-18, 2017. The workshop discussion made evident that major new advances had been made in the last two decades, but also that new trends and research directions have emerged that call for innovative conceptual, design, and measurement approaches. The report reviews these recent trends and also discusses future directions for research on a range of topics that are central to current research in the demography of aging. Looking back over the past two decades of demography of aging research shows remarkable advances in our understanding of the health and well-being of the older population. Equally exciting is that this report sets the stage for the next two decades of innovative researchâ€"a period of rapid growth in the older American population.
Download or read book Polling Matters written by Frank Newport and published by Grand Central Publishing. This book was released on 2004-07-30 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From The Gallup Organization-the most respected source on the subject-comes a fascinating look at the importance of measuring public opinion in modern society. For years, public-opinion polls have been a valuable tool for gauging the positions of American citizens on a wide variety of topics. Polling applies scientific principles to understanding and anticipating the insights, emotions, and attitudes of society. Now in POLLING MATTERS: Why Leaders Must Listen to the Wisdom of the People, The Gallup Organization reveals: What polls really are and how they are conducted Why the information polls provide is so vitally important to modern society today How this valuable information can be used more effectively and more...
Book Synopsis The Global Spread of Fertility Decline by : Jay Winter
Download or read book The Global Spread of Fertility Decline written by Jay Winter and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2013-06-18 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: div This incisive study explores population movements and declining fertility in China, India, Japan, and North America in the 21st century, suggesting that politics, in addition to cultural and economic concerns, must be included as a prime determining factor in these powerful global trends. /DIV
Book Synopsis Demographic Certainties and Uncertainties in the Future of Social Security by : Peter A. Morrison
Download or read book Demographic Certainties and Uncertainties in the Future of Social Security written by Peter A. Morrison and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309482178 Total Pages :77 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Immigration as a Social Determinant of Health by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Immigration as a Social Determinant of Health written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-01-28 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 1965 the foreign-born population of the United States has swelled from 9.6 million or 5 percent of the population to 45 million or 14 percent in 2015. Today, about one-quarter of the U.S. population consists of immigrants or the children of immigrants. Given the sizable representation of immigrants in the U.S. population, their health is a major influence on the health of the population as a whole. On average, immigrants are healthier than native-born Americans. Yet, immigrants also are subject to the systematic marginalization and discrimination that often lead to the creation of health disparities. To explore the link between immigration and health disparities, the Roundtable on the Promotion of Health Equity held a workshop in Oakland, California, on November 28, 2017. This summary of that workshop highlights the presentations and discussions of the workshop.
