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Sentiment Measures And Asset Pricing
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Book Synopsis Sentiment Measures and Asset Pricing by : Luigi Croce
Download or read book Sentiment Measures and Asset Pricing written by Luigi Croce and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis builds on the results of empirical behavioral finance research to shed light on the concept of market sentiment, and to identify and analyze the proxies best suited to capture its effect on asset prices. Market sentiment refers to an irrational behavior of investors, whose causes are divided by behavioral finance literature into two broad categories: biases in expectations' formation and risk preferences not in line with the maxims of expected utility theory. Each proxy of market sentiment is then analyzed considering its ability to capture these two facets of investors' deviations from rationality. No uncontroversial proxy of market sentiment exists; however, it appears that certain classes of proxies are better suited to capture investors' biases in expectations' formation and other better capture changing levels of investors' risk attitude. This master thesis then builds on the conclusions of its initial analysis to investigate whether sentiment could ameliorate the performance of asset pricing models. Traditional asset pricing models, such as the Charart four-factors model, are founded on the idea that asset returns depend on fundamental asset characteristics and should account for observed repeated mispricing in asset markets. Sentiment, interpreted as investors' biases in expectations' formation and measured through the news'-based Ravenpack index, can be interpreted as a repeated mispricing and tested as an additional risk factor to a Charart four-factor model. Alternatively, sentiment, considered as changing levels of investors' risk attitude and measured either by the Baker-Wurgler Index or by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, can influence factors' risk premia and is tested as an explanatory variable of risk-premia time-series. Results show that sentiment retains explanatory power as an additional risk factor during the 2000 to 2009 period in the US stock market, and that it provides sign.
Book Synopsis Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices by : Samuel P. Fraiberger
Download or read book Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices written by Samuel P. Fraiberger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We assess the impact of media sentiment on international equity prices using more than 4.5 million Reuters articles published across the globe between 1991 and 2015. News sentiment robustly predicts daily returns in both advanced and emerging markets, even after controlling for known determinants of stock prices. But not all news-sentiment is alike. A local (country-specific) increase in news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local returns. By contrast, changes in global news sentiment have a larger impact on equity returns around the world, which does not reverse in the short run. We also find evidence that news sentiment affects mainly foreign – rather than local – investors: although local news optimism attracts international equity flows for a few days, global news optimism generates a permanent foreign equity inflow. Our results confirm the value of media content in capturing investor sentiment.
Book Synopsis Investor Sentiment as Conditioning Information in Asset Pricing by : Jerry C. Ho
Download or read book Investor Sentiment as Conditioning Information in Asset Pricing written by Jerry C. Ho and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses whether incorporating investor sentiment as conditioning information in asset pricing models helps capture the impacts of the size, value, liquidity and momentum effects on risk-adjusted returns of individual stocks. We use survey sentiment measures and a composite index as proxies for investor sentiment. In our conditional framework, the size effect becomes less important in the conditional CAPM and is no longer significant in all the other models examined. Furthermore, the conditional models often capture the value, liquidity and momentum effects.
Book Synopsis Inefficient Markets by : Andrei Shleifer
Download or read book Inefficient Markets written by Andrei Shleifer and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2000-03-09 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The efficient markets hypothesis has been the central proposition in finance for nearly thirty years. It states that securities prices in financial markets must equal fundamental values, either because all investors are rational or because arbitrage eliminates pricing anomalies. This book describes an alternative approach to the study of financial markets: behavioral finance. This approach starts with an observation that the assumptions of investor rationality and perfect arbitrage are overwhelmingly contradicted by both psychological and institutional evidence. In actual financial markets, less than fully rational investors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and agency problems. The book presents and empirically evaluates models of such inefficient markets. Behavioral finance models both explain the available financial data better than does the efficient markets hypothesis and generate new empirical predictions. These models can account for such anomalies as the superior performance of value stocks, the closed end fund puzzle, the high returns on stocks included in market indices, the persistence of stock price bubbles, and even the collapse of several well-known hedge funds in 1998. By summarizing and expanding the research in behavioral finance, the book builds a new theoretical and empirical foundation for the economic analysis of real-world markets.
Book Synopsis The Role of Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing by : Chien-Wei Ho
Download or read book The Role of Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing written by Chien-Wei Ho and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis investigates various roles that investor sentiment may play in asset pricing. The empirical analysis consists of three main parts based on the role of investor sentiment in the stock markets. The first part discusses the role of investor sentiment as conditioning information. It aims to examine its ability to explain the dynamic nature of the expected returns for individual stocks and its explanatory power capture the financial market anomalies such as the size, value, liquidity, and effects. The second part focuses on the role of investor sentiment as a risk factor. The purpose is to construct a risk factor on the basis of investor sentiment and test whether this proposed sentiment factor is priced and helps to explain the aforementioned financial market anomalies. The third part explores the role of investor sentiment in different international stock markets. It attempts to assess the extent to which investor sentiment affects the stock market volatility and returns of different regions. The results suggest that investor sentiment exhibits explanatory power for cross section of stock returns in the U.S. market. Acting as conditioning information or a risk factor, investor sentiment can generally capture the size and value effects. Furthermore, it can also capture the momentum effect under certain model specifications. The thesis shows that investors require compensation for bearing noise traders; in other words, investor sentiment is a priced factor. At the market level, the impacts of investor sentiment on stock volatility and returns vary across countries. For some countries investor sentiment affects both volatility and returns while for the others investor sentiment has less influence on stock price behaviour. Overall, the findings of the thesis provide empirical evidence that overlooking the role of investor sentiment in classical finance theory could lead to an imperfect picture of describing the stock price behaviour.
Book Synopsis Exploiting Investor Sentiment for Portfolio Optimization by : Nicolas Banholzer
Download or read book Exploiting Investor Sentiment for Portfolio Optimization written by Nicolas Banholzer and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-09-17 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2018 in the subject Mathematics - Statistics, grade: 1.0, University of Augsburg (Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Lehrstuhl für Statistik), language: English, abstract: In efficient financial markets, there is no room for sentimental investors. Any new information would be immediately absorbed and any mispricing immediately corrected by the forces of rational arbitrageurs doing the maths with the fundamentals. But why should financial markets be different from any other market where humans interact and are subject to psychological biases? There is strong empirical evidence that investor sentiment, broadly defined as "a belief about future cash flows and investment risks that is not justified by the facts at hand", plays an important role in financial markets. It can lead to significant overpricing/underpricing, particularly of assets prone to subjective valuations. With limits/risks to arbitrage in the short term, prices rather correct over the medium to long term as sentimental beliefs mean-revert. Building on the studies by Baker and Wurgler 2006 and Baker, Wurgler, and Y. Yuan 2012, measures of investor sentiment for international markets are constructed. Using the Copula Opinion Pooling approach developed by Attilio Meucci, this thesis shows how to incorporate these sentiment measures into portfolio optimization. Thereby, a sentiment-based trading strategy that exploits the medium-term reversal effect of sentiment is developed and empirically tested. The results are promising as they provide strong evidence that sentiment contains beneficial information that should not be neglected by quantitative portfolio managers.
Book Synopsis Asset Management by : Stephen Satchell
Download or read book Asset Management written by Stephen Satchell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-09-20 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a series of contributions on key issues in the decision-making behind the management of financial assets. It provides insight into topics such as quantitative and traditional portfolio construction, performance clustering and incentives in the UK pension fund industry, pension fund governance, indexation, and tracking errors. Markets covered include major European markets, equities, and emerging markets of South-East and Central Asia.
Book Synopsis Essays on Asset Pricing Implications of Investor Sentiment by :
Download or read book Essays on Asset Pricing Implications of Investor Sentiment written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Retail Investor Sentiment and Behavior by : Matthias Burghardt
Download or read book Retail Investor Sentiment and Behavior written by Matthias Burghardt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-16 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a unique data set consisting of more than 36.5 million submitted retail investor orders over the course of five years, Matthias Burghardt constructs an innovative retail investor sentiment index. He shows that retail investors’ trading decisions are correlated, that retail investors are contrarians, and that a profitable trading strategy can be based on these aggregated sentiment measures.
Book Synopsis An Analysis of “Quality Minus Junk” Strategies. The Asset Pricing Factor by : Mark Matern
Download or read book An Analysis of “Quality Minus Junk” Strategies. The Asset Pricing Factor written by Mark Matern and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2017-08-09 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - General, grade: 1,3, University of Mannheim, language: English, abstract: This term paper deals with the strategy called “quality-minus-junk” (QMJ). The reader will see that both abnormal returns, characterized as alpha, and excess returns, characterized as returns above the risk-free rate, are consistently high for any of the three major asset-pricing models. This particular thesis is going to go through the main findings and observations that Asness, Frazzini and Pedersen have made in their research on the QMJ factor and is also going to extend on some further examination of QMJ. The upcoming chapter briefly discusses the reason behind using the Gordon Growth Model as the basis of the quality score and the four main quality measures which were used in the design of the QMJ strategy. Chapters 3, 4 and 5 retest the findings by using three years of additional data and its most recent updates in May 2015. In Chapter 3 are tests which were performed for different levels of quality. Chapter 4 will focus on the role of the QMJ factor in pricing other risk factors and Chapter 5 analyzes QMJ for different economic environments. Therefore new aspects will be added to the analysis. In Chapter 6 the readers will see how the QMJ strategy has performed during different levels of the sentiment index and the last Chapter deals with the Q-factor model to see how well it explains the QMJ factor performance. There are three main questions that are pursued and dealt with in this thesis. 1. What has changed in terms of the main findings for the QMJ strategy with the new and updated data? 2. The price of quality and the premium paid for higher quality constantly changes, especially for different market cycles and environments. It would therefore be interesting to see what one of the most popular measures of market sentiment, the sentiment-index by Baker and Wurgler, can tell us about the QMJ factor and vice versa. And the last question: Is there any potential relation between the two?
Book Synopsis CAPM with Sentiment by : Claudio Boido
Download or read book CAPM with Sentiment written by Claudio Boido and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyse the relationship between large cap returns and sentiment indexes, using a Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) framework. We try to provide a better explanation of asset prices and their deviations from standard theories by means of sentiment indicators, assuming the latter being measures of the very inclination to speculate. Therefore, when sentiment is high, investor demand for speculative investment is high; conversely when it is low, investor demand for speculative investments is low. Unlike other studies, based on proxies, we use the European Sentiment Indicator and its constituents, based on direct surveys, to assess business and consumer confidence.
Book Synopsis Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models by : Szymon Lis
Download or read book Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models written by Szymon Lis and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Trading on Sentiment by : Richard L. Peterson
Download or read book Trading on Sentiment written by Richard L. Peterson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-21 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his debut book on trading psychology, Inside the Investor’s Brain, Richard Peterson demonstrated how managing emotions helps top investors outperform. Now, in Trading on Sentiment, he takes you inside the science of crowd psychology and demonstrates that not only do price patterns exist, but the most predictable ones are rooted in our shared human nature. Peterson’s team developed text analysis engines to mine data - topics, beliefs, and emotions - from social media. Based on that data, they put together a market-neutral social media-based hedge fund that beat the S&P 500 by more than twenty-four percent—through the 2008 financial crisis. In this groundbreaking guide, he shows you how they did it and why it worked. Applying algorithms to social media data opened up an unprecedented world of insight into the elusive patterns of investor sentiment driving repeating market moves. Inside, you gain a privileged look at the media content that moves investors, along with time-tested techniques to make the smart moves—even when it doesn’t feel right. This book digs underneath technicals and fundamentals to explain the primary mover of market prices - the global information flow and how investors react to it. It provides the expert guidance you need to develop a competitive edge, manage risk, and overcome our sometimes-flawed human nature. Learn how traders are using sentiment analysis and statistical tools to extract value from media data in order to: Foresee important price moves using an understanding of how investors process news. Make more profitable investment decisions by identifying when prices are trending, when trends are turning, and when sharp market moves are likely to reverse. Use media sentiment to improve value and momentum investing returns. Avoid the pitfalls of unique price patterns found in commodities, currencies, and during speculative bubbles Trading on Sentiment deepens your understanding of markets and supplies you with the tools and techniques to beat global markets— whether they’re going up, down, or sideways.
Book Synopsis Investor Sentiment and Asset Pricing by : Sze Nie Ung
Download or read book Investor Sentiment and Asset Pricing written by Sze Nie Ung and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Sentiment Versus Liquidity Pricing Effects in the Cross-Section of UK Stock Returns by : Niall O'Sullivan
Download or read book Sentiment Versus Liquidity Pricing Effects in the Cross-Section of UK Stock Returns written by Niall O'Sullivan and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the asset pricing role of 'sentiment risk' in stock returns in the case of the UK stock market. We define sentiment risk as the sensitivity of stock returns to investor sentiment in financial markets. We incorporate a broad range of financial market variables in measuring financial conditions and use this as a proxy for market-wide investor sentiment. The paper distinguishes between rational and irrational (noisy) investor sentiment. Initial findings indicate a strong role for rational sentiment risk in the returns of FTSE All Share stocks. However, our paper makes a key contribution by identifying that this evidence largely disappears after controlling for the liquidity risk features of stocks. No evidence of sentiment risk pricing is found among the subgroups of FTSE 250 and FTSE 100 stocks. More generally, our findings point to a strong relation between sentiment risk and liquidity risk in returns and the need for careful disentangling of sentiment versus liquidity effects.
Book Synopsis Essays in Investor Sentiment by : Major Coleman
Download or read book Essays in Investor Sentiment written by Major Coleman and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chapter 1. If investors choose consumption and investment levels jointly to maximize expected utility or value, then investor sentiment about stock returns should be reflected in consumption choices. I find a positive contemporaneous relationship between aggregate consumption of nondurables and investor stock sentiment. Investors' false perceptions of changes in stock market wealth appear to move consumption in the same direction initially. But as expected stock returns do not materialize, sentiment-based consumption is reversed. On average, this reversal occurs two to four years later, which coincides with the time it takes for sentiment to correct from prior levels. Sentiment does not positively predict returns as a positive proxy of rational expectations of risk would. Nor does sentiment negatively predict the covariance between consumption growth and returns as an inverse proxy for rational expectations of risk would. The results suggest that bias in investor expectations is an important factor in consumption-based asset pricing models. Chapter 2. I hypothesize that directly observable past returns drive housing investment more so than fundamentals because the difference between price and fundamental value---sentiment---is not directly observable. Housing sentiment only becomes recognizable when it is extreme, so the magnitude of sentiment must be large enough relative to recent returns in order for prices to correct. I construct indices of housing sentiment and use the measures to calibrate a specification of home price growth driven by momentum investing. I find that home price growth is persistent even when prices are moving away from fundamental value, and reversals in home price growth are only likely when the housing sentiment measures are extreme.
Book Synopsis Sentiments and Asset Markets by : Haritima Chauhan
Download or read book Sentiments and Asset Markets written by Haritima Chauhan and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ability of sentiments to impact macroeconomic activity and financial markets is unequivocally recognized. Economists and policymakers alike, agree that the extended periods of pessimistic sentiments impeded the economic recovery after the Great Recession. Despite this knowledge, there is still much more to know about the mechanisms by which these unpredictable changes in confidence perpetuate in economic and financial systems. It is also imperative to learn how to measure the exogenous shifts in the market sentiments and the sensitivity of asset prices and macroeconomic variables to them. This dissertation examines the sentiments in two ways. Using social network data, this work presents methods to identify sentiments of influential investors and highlight the effects of the stated opinions on the broader stock market and on individual securities. This paper concludes that these high-frequency sentiments influence prices and there are incremental benefits of recognizing investor heterogeneity in such analyses. The other research presents a production economy asset pricing model and elaborates on the interplay of macroeconomic and asset market observations with the changes in consumer preferences. The results reveal significant and persistent risks to the changes in market sentiments and simultaneously explain major moments of economic and financial series.
