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Seasonal Adjustment Methods
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Book Synopsis Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation by : Estela Bee Dagum
Download or read book Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation written by Estela Bee Dagum and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-20 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action. This book appeals to practitioners in government institutions, finance and business, macroeconomists, and other professionals who use economic data as well as academic researchers in time series analysis, seasonal adjustment methods, filtering and signal extraction. It is also useful for graduate and final-year undergraduate courses in econometrics and time series with a good understanding of linear regression and matrix algebra, as well as ARIMA modelling.
Book Synopsis Seasonal Adjustment with the X-11 Method by : Dominique Ladiray
Download or read book Seasonal Adjustment with the X-11 Method written by Dominique Ladiray and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most widely used statistical method in seasonal adjustment is implemented in the X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program. Developed by the US Bureau of the Census, it resulted in the X-11-ARIMA software and the X-12-ARIMA. While these integrate parametric methods, they remain close to the initial X-11 method, and it is this "core" that Seasonal Adjustment with the X-11 Method focuses on. It will be an important reference for government agencies, and other serious users of economic data.
Download or read book Seasonal adjustment methods written by and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Seasonal Adjustment Methods written by and published by Statistical Office of European Communities. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Book Synopsis Economic Time Series by : William R. Bell
Download or read book Economic Time Series written by William R. Bell and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-03-19 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time series modeling and seasonal adjustment, as is reflected both in the contents of the chapters and in their authorship, with contributors coming from academia and government statistical agencies. For easier perusal and absorption, the contents have been grouped into seven topical sections: Section I deals with periodic modeling of time series, introducing, applying, and comparing various seasonally periodic models Section II examines the estimation of time series components when models for series are misspecified in some sense, and the broader implications this has for seasonal adjustment and business cycle estimation Section III examines the quantification of error in X-11 seasonal adjustments, with comparisons to error in model-based seasonal adjustments Section IV discusses some practical problems that arise in seasonal adjustment: developing asymmetric trend-cycle filters, dealing with both temporal and contemporaneous benchmark constraints, detecting trading-day effects in monthly and quarterly time series, and using diagnostics in conjunction with model-based seasonal adjustment Section V explores outlier detection and the modeling of time series containing extreme values, developing new procedures and extending previous work Section VI examines some alternative models and inference procedures for analysis of seasonal economic time series Section VII deals with aspects of modeling, estimation, and forecasting for nonseasonal economic time series By presenting new methodological developments as well as pertinent empirical analyses and reviews of established methods, the book provides much that is stimulating and practically useful for the serious researcher and analyst of economic time series.
Book Synopsis A Comparison and Assessment of Seasonal Adjustment Methods for Employment and Unemployment Statistics by : Estela Bee Dagum
Download or read book A Comparison and Assessment of Seasonal Adjustment Methods for Employment and Unemployment Statistics written by Estela Bee Dagum and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Seasonality in Regression by : Svend Hylleberg
Download or read book Seasonality in Regression written by Svend Hylleberg and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seasonality in Regression presents the problems of seasonality in economic regression models. This book discusses the procedures that may have application in practical econometric work. Organized into eight chapters, this book begins with an overview of the tremendous increase in the computational capabilities made by the development of the electronic computer that has profound implications for the way seasonality is handled by economists. This text then examines some seasonal models and their characteristics. Other chapters consider the most frequently applied evaluation criteria and appraise the values in the applications. This book discusses as well the frequency domain estimators and provides insight into problems of estimating the disturbance–covariance matrix through the use of the disturbance spectrum. The final chapter deals with the main objective of the treatment of personality to formulate and estimate econometric models. This book is a valuable resource for economists and econometricians who have knowledge of econometrics at an advanced undergraduate or graduate level.
Book Synopsis The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series by : Eric Ghysels
Download or read book The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series written by Eric Ghysels and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-06-18 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Eric Ghysels and Denise R. Osborn provide a thorough and timely review of the recent developments in the econometric analysis of seasonal economic time series, summarizing a decade of theoretical advances in the area. The authors discuss the asymptotic distribution theory for linear nonstationary seasonal stochastic processes. They also cover the latest contributions to the theory and practice of seasonal adjustment, together with its implications for estimation and hypothesis testing. Moreover, a comprehensive analysis of periodic models is provided, including stationary and nonstationary cases. The book concludes with a discussion of some nonlinear seasonal and periodic models. The treatment is designed for an audience of researchers and advanced graduate students.
Book Synopsis Seasonal Adjustments by Electronic Computer Methods by : Julius Shiskin
Download or read book Seasonal Adjustments by Electronic Computer Methods written by Julius Shiskin and published by . This book was released on 1958 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition by : John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D.
Download or read book SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition written by John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D. and published by SAS Institute. This book was released on 2018-03-14 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series, intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.
Download or read book Signal Extraction written by Marc Wildi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-09-06 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The material contained in this book originated in interrogations about modern practice in time series analysis. • Why do we use models optimized with respect to one-step ahead foreca- ing performances for applications involving multi-step ahead forecasts? • Why do we infer 'long-term' properties (unit-roots) of an unknown process from statistics essentially based on short-term one-step ahead forecasting performances of particular time series models? • Are we able to detect turning-points of trend components earlier than with traditional signal extraction procedures? The link between 'signal extraction' and the first two questions above is not immediate at first sight. Signal extraction problems are often solved by su- ably designed symmetric filters. Towards the boundaries (t = 1 or t = N) of a time series a particular symmetric filter must be approximated by asymm- ric filters. The time series literature proposes an intuitively straightforward solution for solving this problem: • Stretch the observed time series by forecasts generated by a model. • Apply the symmetric filter to the extended time series. This approach is called 'model-based'. Obviously, the forecast-horizon grows with the length of the symmetric filter. Model-identification and estimation of unknown parameters are then related to the above first two questions. One may further ask, if this approximation problem and the way it is solved by model-based approaches are important topics for practical purposes? Consider some 'prominent' estimation problems: • The determination of the seasonally adjusted actual unemployment rate.
Book Synopsis Seasonality in Human Mortality by : Roland Rau
Download or read book Seasonality in Human Mortality written by Roland Rau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-24 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seasonal fluctuations in mortality are a persistent phenomenon, but variations from culture to culture pose fascinating questions. This book investigates whether sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors play a role as important for seasonal mortality as they do for mortality in general. Using modern statistical methods, the book shows, for example, that in the United States the fluctuations between winter and summer mortality are smaller the more years someone has spent in school.
Book Synopsis A Comparison and Assessment of Seasonal Adjustment Methods for Employment and Unemployment Statistics by : Estela Bee Dagum
Download or read book A Comparison and Assessment of Seasonal Adjustment Methods for Employment and Unemployment Statistics written by Estela Bee Dagum and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Time Series Analysis and Adjustment by : Haim Y Bleikh
Download or read book Time Series Analysis and Adjustment written by Haim Y Bleikh and published by Gower Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2014-07-28 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Time Series Analysis and Adjustment the authors explain how the last four decades have brought dramatic changes in the way researchers analyze economic and financial data on behalf of economic and financial institutions and provide statistics to whomsoever requires them. Such analysis has long involved what is known as econometrics, but time series analysis is a different approach driven more by data than economic theory and focused on modelling. An understanding of time series and the application and understanding of related time series adjustment procedures is essential in areas such as risk management, business cycle analysis, and forecasting. Dealing with economic data involves grappling with things like varying numbers of working and trading days in different months and movable national holidays. Special attention has to be given to such things. However, the main problem in time series analysis is randomness. In real-life, data patterns are usually unclear, and the challenge is to uncover hidden patterns in the data and then to generate accurate forecasts. The case studies in this book demonstrate that time series adjustment methods can be efficaciously applied and utilized, for both analysis and forecasting, but they must be used in the context of reasoned statistical and economic judgment. The authors believe this is the first published study to really deal with this issue of context.
Book Synopsis Tests and Revisions of Bureau of the Census Methods of Seasonal Adjustments by : Julius Shiskin
Download or read book Tests and Revisions of Bureau of the Census Methods of Seasonal Adjustments written by Julius Shiskin and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is a reissue of a paper entitled, "Electronic computer seasonal adjustments--tests and revisions of U.S. census methods" [by Julius Shiskin]. The paper was presented at a conference on the use of electronic computers for seasonal adjustments held in Paris, November 28-30, 1960, under the auspices of the Organization for European Economic Cooperation.
Book Synopsis Spectral Analysis and Parametric Methods for Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series by : Harry Myer Rosenblatt
Download or read book Spectral Analysis and Parametric Methods for Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series written by Harry Myer Rosenblatt and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
