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Resource Windfalls And Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads
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Book Synopsis Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effect that revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks have on sovereign bond spreads using panel data for 30 emerging market economies during the period 1997-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the sovereign bond spread in democracies, but to a significant increase in the spread in autocracies. To explain our finding we show that, consistent with the political economy literature on the resource curse, revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks significantly increased real per capita GDP growth in democracies, while in autocracies GDP per capita growth decreased.
Book Synopsis Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by : Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Rabah Arezki and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effect that revenue windfalls from international commodity price booms have on sovereign bond spreads using panel data for 38 emerging market economies during the period 1997-2007. Our main finding is that commodity price booms lead to a significant reduction in the sovereign bond spread in democracies, but to a significant increase in the spread in autocracies. To explain our finding we show that, consistent with the political economy literature on the resource curse, revenue windfalls from international commodity price booms significantly increased real per capita GDP growth in democracies, while in autocracies GDP per capita growth decreased.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by : Iva Petrova
Download or read book Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Iva Petrova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.
Book Synopsis Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by : Mr.Fabio Comelli
Download or read book Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Mr.Fabio Comelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate sovereign bond spreads of 28 emerging economies over the period January 1998-December 2011 and test the ability of the model in generating accurate in-sample predictions for emerging economies bond spreads. The impact and significance of country-specific and global explanatory variables on bond spreads varies across regions, as well as economic periods. During crisis times, good macroeconomic fundamentals are helpful in containing bond spreads, but less than in non-crisis times, possibly reflecting the impact of extra-economic forces on bond spreads when a financial crisis occurs. For some emerging economies, in-sample predictions of the monthly changes in bond spreads obtained with rolling regression routines are significantly more accurate than forecasts obtained with a random walk. Rolling regression-based bond spread predictions appear to convey more information than those obtained with a linear prediction method. By contrast, bond spreads forecasts obtained with a linear prediction method are less accurate than those obtained with random guessing.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets by : Mr.Balazs Csonto
Download or read book Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets written by Mr.Balazs Csonto and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-10 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the relationship between global and country-specific factors and emerging market debt spreads from three different angles. First, we aim to disentangle the effect of global and country-specific developments, and find that while both country-specific and global developments are important in the long-run, global factors are main determinants of spreads in the short-run. Second, we investigate whether and how the strength of fundamentals is related to the sensitivity of spreads to global factors. Countries with stronger fundamentals tend to have lower sensitivity to changes in global risk aversion. Third, we decompose changes in spreads and analyze the behavior of explained and unexplained components over different periods. To do so, we break down fitted changes in spreads into the contribution of country-specific and global factors, as well as decompose changes in the residual into the correction of initial misalignment and an increase/decrease in misalignment. We find that changes in spreads follow periods of tightening/widening, which are well-explained by the model; and the dynamics of the components of the unexplained residual follow all the major developments that impact market sentiment. In particular, we find that in the periods of severe marketstress, such as during the intensive phase of the Eurozone debt crisis, global factors tend to drive changes in the spreads and the misalignment tends to increase in magnitude and its relative share in actual spreads.
Book Synopsis International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by : Andrea Presbitero
Download or read book International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Andrea Presbitero and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-24 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What determines the ability of low-income developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) that issued sovereign bonds at least once during the period 1995-2013 as well as those that did not. We find that an EMDE is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, and has stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. With regard to global factors, the results show that sovereign bond spreads are reduced in periods of lower market volatility.
Book Synopsis Emerging Markets and Financial Globalization by : Paolo Mauro
Download or read book Emerging Markets and Financial Globalization written by Paolo Mauro and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2006-03-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The frequency and virulence of recent financial crises have led to calls for reform of the current international financial architecture. In an effort to learn more about today's international financial environment, the authors turn to an earlier era of financial globalization between 1870 and 1913. By examining data on sovereign bonds issued by borrowing developing countries in this earlier period and in the present day, the authors are able to identify the characteristics ofsuccessful borrowers in the two periods. They are then able to show that global crises or contagion are a feature of the 1990s which was hardly known in the previous era of globalization. Finally, the authors draw lessons for today from archival data on mechanisms used by British investors in the 19thcentury to address sovereign defaults. Using new qualitative and quantitative data, the authors skilfully apply a variety of approaches in order to better understand how problems of volatility and debt crises are dealt with in international financial markets.
Book Synopsis Resource Windfalls, Optimal Public Investment and Redistribution by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Resource Windfalls, Optimal Public Investment and Redistribution written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the optimal public investment decisions in countries experiencing a resource windfall. To do so, we use an augmented version of the Permanent Income framework with public investment faced with adjustment costs capturing the associated administrative capacity as well as government direct transfers. A key assumption is that those adjustment costs rise with the size of the resource windfall. The main results from the analytical model are threefold. First, a larger resource windfall commands a lower level of public capital but a higher level of redistribution through transfers. Second, weaker administrative capacity lowers the increase in optimal public capital following a resource windfall. Third, higher total factor productivity in the non-resource sector reduces the degree of des-investment in public capital commanded by weaker administrative capacity. We further extend our basic model to allow for "investing in investing" - that is public investment in administrative capacity - by endogenizing the adjustment cost in public investment. Results from the numerical simulations suggest, among other things, that a higher initial stock of public administrative "know how" leads to a higher level of optimal public investment following a resource windfall. Implications for policy are discussed.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets by : Mahmood Pradhan
Download or read book Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets written by Mahmood Pradhan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Book Synopsis Governing Natural Resources for Africa’s Development by : Hany Gamil Besada
Download or read book Governing Natural Resources for Africa’s Development written by Hany Gamil Besada and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-13 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bringing together some of the world’s leading thinkers and policy experts in the area of natural resource governance and management in Africa, this volume addresses the most critical policy issues affecting the continent’s ability to manage and govern its precious resources. The narrative of the book is solutions-driven, as experts weigh on specific issues within the context of Africa’s natural resource governance and offer appropriate policy recommendations on how to best manage the continent’s resources. This is a must-read for government policy makers in industrialized economies and, more importantly, in Africa and emerging economies, as well as for academic researchers working in the field, extractive companies operating on the continent, extractive industry and trade associations, and multilateral and donor aid institutions.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.
Book Synopsis Knowledge-Based Growth in Natural Resource Intensive Economies by : Kristin Ranestad
Download or read book Knowledge-Based Growth in Natural Resource Intensive Economies written by Kristin Ranestad and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-07 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book rejects the idea that natural resource industries are doomed to slow growth. Rather, it examines the case of Norway to demonstrate that such industries can prove highly innovative and dynamic. Here, the case is compellingly made that a key empirical problem with the popular ‘resource curse’ argument is that some of the richest countries in the world – namely Norway, Sweden, Canada and Australia – have all developed fast-growing economies based on natural resources. Analysis of innovation and knowledge development in natural resource industries reveal important new insights about the role of learning and innovation. These insights are key to understanding variances in growth levels between natural resource-based economies. Ranestad illustrates how Norway’s high economic performance is built on knowledge-based natural resource industries. While Norwegian industries may have originated because of foreign technology and expertise, they thrived due to further developments carried out by organisations within Norway. Ranestad looks at how these developments were possible due to the country’s high level of human capital, capacity for knowledge absorption and ability to adapt to new global technological and economic circumstances.
Book Synopsis Why Does Development Fail in Resource Rich Economies by : Elissaios Papyrakis
Download or read book Why Does Development Fail in Resource Rich Economies written by Elissaios Papyrakis and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-05-17 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been a lot of interest within the scientific and policy communities in the ‘resource curse’; that is, the tendency of mineral rich economies to turn into development failures. Yet, after more than 20 years of intensive research and action, ‘the curse’ still lingers as a very real global problem, because of volatile mineral prices, bad governance and conflict. This book incorporates current original research on the resource curse (from some of the most prominent contributors to this literature), combined with a critical reflection on the current stock of knowledge. It is a unique attempt to provide a more holistic and interdisciplinary picture of the resource curse and its multi-scale effects. This edited volume reflects the current academic diversity that characterises the resource curse literature with a mix of different methodological approaches (both quantitative and qualitative analyses) and a diverse geographical focus (Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, global). Taken together the studies emphasize the complexities and conditionalities of the ‘curse’ – its presence/intensity being largely context-specific, depending on the type of resources, socio-political institutions and linkages with the rest of the economy and society. This book was originally published as a special issue of the Journal of Development Studies.
Book Synopsis Diversified Development by : Indermit S. Gill
Download or read book Diversified Development written by Indermit S. Gill and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-02-26 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Eurasian economies have to become efficient more productive, job-creating, and stable. But efficiency is not the same as diversification. Governments need to worry less about the composition of exports and production and more about asset portfolios natural resources, built capital, and economic institutions.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1463904924 Total Pages :12 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (639 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, December 2010 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, December 2010 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Q&A in this issue features seven questions about emerging markets and the financial crisis (by Ayhan Kose); the research summaries are "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle" (by Cemile Sancak, Ricardo Velloso, and Jing Xing) and "Banking Crisis Resolution: Was this Time Different?" (by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia). The issue also lists the contents of the second issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 58 Number 2; visiting scholars at the IMF during October-December 2010; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Position Notes.
Download or read book The World Bank Economic Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 584 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
