Refining Financial Analysts Forecasts By Predicting Earnings Forecast Errors

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Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data

Author : Peter Easton
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1601981945
Total Pages : 148 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data by : Peter Easton

Download or read book Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data written by Peter Easton and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2009 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data focuses on estimating the expected rate of return implied by market prices, summary accounting numbers, and forecasts of earnings and dividends. Estimates of the expected rate of return, often used as proxies for the cost of capital, are obtained by inverting accounting-based valuation models. The author describes accounting-based valuation models and discusses how these models have been used, and how they may be used, to obtain estimates of the cost of capital. The practical appeal of accounting-based valuation models is that they focus on the two variables that are commonly at the heart of valuations carried out by equity analysts -- forecasts of earnings and forecasts of earnings growth. The question at the core of this monograph is -- How can these forecasts be used to obtain an estimate of the cost of capital? The author examines the empirical validity of the estimates based on these forecasts and explores ways to improve these estimates. In addition, this monograph details a method for isolating the effect of any factor of interest (such as cross-listing, fraud, disclosure quality, taxes, analyst following, accounting standards, etc.) on the cost of capital. If you are interested in understanding the academic literature on accounting-based estimates of expected rate of return this monograph is for you. Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data provides a foundation for a deeper comprehension of this literature and will give a jump start to those who have an interest in these topics. The key ideas are introduced via examples based on actual forecasts, accounting information, and market prices for listed firms, and the numerical examples are based on sound algebraic relations.

Business Forecasting

Author : Michael Gilliland
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119782473
Total Pages : 435 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Forecasting by : Michael Gilliland

Download or read book Business Forecasting written by Michael Gilliland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting

Author : Jacques Lussier
Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1944960090
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (449 download)

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Book Synopsis Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting by : Jacques Lussier

Download or read book Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting written by Jacques Lussier and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-10-10 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Financial Gatekeepers

Author : Yasuyuki Fuchita
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
ISBN 13 : 0815729820
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (157 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Gatekeepers by : Yasuyuki Fuchita

Download or read book Financial Gatekeepers written by Yasuyuki Fuchita and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2007-02-01 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Brookings Institution Press and Nomura Institute of Capital Markets Research publication Developed country capital markets have devised a set of institutions and actors to help provide investors with timely and accurate information they need to make informed investment decisions. These actors have become known as "financial gatekeepers" and include auditors, financial analysts, and credit rating agencies. Corporate financial reporting scandals in the United States and elsewhere in recent years, however, have called into question the sufficiency of the legal framework governing these gatekeepers. Policymakers have since responded by imposing a series of new obligations, restrictions, and punishments—all with the purpose of strengthening investor confidence in these important actors. Financial Gatekeepers provides an in-depth look at these new frameworks, especially in the United States and Japan. How have they worked? Are further refinements appropriate? These are among the questions addressed in this timely and important volume. Contributors include Leslie Boni (University of New Mexico), Barry Bosworth (Brookings Institution), Tomoo Inoue (Seikei University), Zoe-Vonna Palmrose (University of Southern California), Frank Partnoy (University of San Diego School of Law), George Perry (Brookings Institution), Justin Pettit (UBS), Paul Stevens (Investment Company Institute), Peter Wallison (American Enterprise Institute).

Company Valuation and Information in Analyst Forecasts

Author : Daniel Kreutzmann
Publisher : Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
ISBN 13 : 3832525297
Total Pages : 141 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (325 download)

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Book Synopsis Company Valuation and Information in Analyst Forecasts by : Daniel Kreutzmann

Download or read book Company Valuation and Information in Analyst Forecasts written by Daniel Kreutzmann and published by Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH. This book was released on 2010 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis focuses on the three primitive value drivers of each company valuation model that is based on fundamental analysis: the discount rate, the expected future payoffs during the explicit forecasting period, and the terminal value at the end of the explicit forecasting period. While the first factor is analyzed theoretically by incorporating the government into the classical valuation framework, this thesis studies the other two factors by investigating forecasts made by professional investors, i.e. financial analysts. In the first part we show that the government's and the shareholders discount rate usually differ and analyze how the government's and shareholders different objectives lead to conflicts in the context of capital budgeting. The empirical part of this thesis shows that macroeconomic information is frequently used by financial analysts when updating their earnings expecations and that target price forecastsmade by financial analysts can be used to predict abnormal returns.

Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis

Author : John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461452392
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (614 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis by : John B. Guerard, Jr.

Download or read book Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-01-04 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.

Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting (New Series，2012) Vol．10

Author : Cheng F. Lee
Publisher : Center for PBBEFR & Airiti Press
ISBN 13 : 9866286622
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (662 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting (New Series，2012) Vol．10 by : Cheng F. Lee

Download or read book Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting (New Series，2012) Vol．10 written by Cheng F. Lee and published by Center for PBBEFR & Airiti Press. This book was released on 2012-12-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting (New Series) is an annual publication designed to disseminate developments in the quantitative analysis of finance and accounting. The publication is a forum for statistical and quantitative analyses of issues in finance and accounting as well as applications of quantitative methods to problems in financial management, financial accounting, and business management. The objective is to promote interaction between academic research in finance and accounting and applied research in the financial community and the accounting profession.

A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics

Author : Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226531929
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (265 download)

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Book Synopsis A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics by : Frederic S. Mishkin

Download or read book A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.

Principles of Forecasting

Author : J.S. Armstrong
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792374015
Total Pages : 880 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles of Forecasting by : J.S. Armstrong

Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

Inflation Expectations

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Future Ready

Author : Steve Morlidge
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470662212
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)

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Book Synopsis Future Ready by : Steve Morlidge

Download or read book Future Ready written by Steve Morlidge and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-02-19 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Principles of Forecasting

Author : J.S. Armstrong
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0306476304
Total Pages : 840 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles of Forecasting by : J.S. Armstrong

Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-05-31 with total page 840 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

The Handbook of Forecasting

Author : Spyros G. Makridakis
Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 666 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (512 download)

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Book Synopsis The Handbook of Forecasting by : Spyros G. Makridakis

Download or read book The Handbook of Forecasting written by Spyros G. Makridakis and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1987-04-03 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Role and application of forecasting in organizations; Introduction to management forecasting; Sales forecasting requirements; Forecasting requirements for operations planning and control; Capacity planning forecasting requirements; Financial forecasting; Forecasting and strategic planning; Forecasting in the electric utility industry; State and local government revenue forecasting; Population forecasting; Forecasting: the issues; Approaches to forecasting; Smoothing methods for short-term planning and control; A practical overview of arima models for time series forecasting; Decomposition methods for medium term planning annnd budgeting; Econometric methods for managerial applications; Judgemtal and bayesian forecasting; An integrated approach to medium andlong term forecasting: the marketing mix system; Forecasting challenges; Forecasting and the environment: the challenges of rapid change; Price forecasting using experience curves and the product life-cycle concept; Life cycle forecasting; Forecasting recessions; Forecasting macroeconomic variables: an eclectic approach; ; Managing the forecasting functions; Forecasting and planning: an evaluation; Integrating forecasting and decision making; The forecasting audit; The future of forecasting.

Earnings Management

Author : Joshua Ronen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387257713
Total Pages : 587 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Earnings Management by : Joshua Ronen

Download or read book Earnings Management written by Joshua Ronen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-06 with total page 587 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a study of earnings management, aimed at scholars and professionals in accounting, finance, economics, and law. The authors address research questions including: Why are earnings so important that firms feel compelled to manipulate them? What set of circumstances will induce earnings management? How will the interaction among management, boards of directors, investors, employees, suppliers, customers and regulators affect earnings management? How to design empirical research addressing earnings management? What are the limitations and strengths of current empirical models?

Understanding Economic Forecasts

Author : David F. Hendry
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262582421
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (824 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Economic Forecasts by : David F. Hendry

Download or read book Understanding Economic Forecasts written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.

Financial Statement Analysis

Author : Martin S. Fridson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0471264601
Total Pages : 414 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (712 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Statement Analysis by : Martin S. Fridson

Download or read book Financial Statement Analysis written by Martin S. Fridson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-10-01 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Financial Statement Analysis A Practitioner's Guide Third Edition "This is an illuminating and insightful tour of financial statements, how they can be used to inform, how they can be used to mislead, and how they can be used to analyze the financial health of a company." -Professor Jay O. Light Harvard Business School "Financial Statement Analysis should be required reading for anyone who puts a dime to work in the securities markets or recommends that others do the same." -Jack L. Rivkin Executive Vice President (retired) Citigroup Investments "Fridson and Alvarez provide a valuable practical guide for understanding, interpreting, and critically assessing financial reports put out by firms. Their discussion of profits-'quality of earnings'-is particularly insightful given the recent spate of reporting problems encountered by firms. I highly recommend their book to anyone interested in getting behind the numbers as a means of predicting future profits and stock prices." -Paul Brown Chair-Department of Accounting Leonard N. Stern School of Business, NYU "Let this book assist in financial awareness and transparency and higher standards of reporting, and accountability to all stakeholders." -Patricia A. Small Treasurer Emeritus, University of California Partner, KCM Investment Advisors "This book is a polished gem covering the analysis of financial statements. It is thorough, skeptical and extremely practical in its review." -Daniel J. Fuss Vice Chairman Loomis, Sayles & Company, LP

Basic Concept of Merchandise

Author : Mrs. S. Nazira Begum
Publisher : Leilani Katie Publication
ISBN 13 : 8197059470
Total Pages : 310 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (97 download)

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Book Synopsis Basic Concept of Merchandise by : Mrs. S. Nazira Begum

Download or read book Basic Concept of Merchandise written by Mrs. S. Nazira Begum and published by Leilani Katie Publication. This book was released on 2024-02-29 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mrs. S. Nazira Begum, Assistant Professor, Department of Commerce PA, KG College of Arts & Science, Coimbatore,Tamil Nadu, India. Dr. A. Vennila, Assistant Professor, Department of Commerce PA, Avinashilingam Institute for Home Science and Higher Education for Women, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India. Mrs. M. Jayanthi, Assistant Professor, Department of Commerce PA, KG College of Arts and Science, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India.