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Quantifying Cost And Schedule Uncertainty For Major Defense Acquisition Programs Mdaps
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Book Synopsis Quantifying Cost and Schedule Uncertainty for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) by : Thomas Light
Download or read book Quantifying Cost and Schedule Uncertainty for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) written by Thomas Light and published by . This book was released on 2017-08-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "To help the Air Force better anticipate cost and schedule challenges and manage programs throughout their life cycles, this study developed a methodology that can be used to evaluate the likelihood of cost growth and schedule slip for major defense acquisition projects (MDAPs) based on program characteristics observable at milestone (MS) B. RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) has developed and maintains a comprehensive database of program cost and schedule information obtained by analyzing and summarizing the contents of Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) from the inception of each program through the latest out-of-cycle and annual SARs submitted as part of each year's President's Budget. From this database, the authors calculate cost and schedule factors that serve as the outcome metrics for assessing MDAP performance from MS B to the final or FY14 President's Budget SAR. PAF's ongoing SAR analyses have led to the creation of models that can be used to assess at program inception the risk of future cost growth and schedule slip. This document describes the technical approach and findings of this work. It should be of interest to analysts concerned with MDAP cost and schedule growth issues"--Table of contents page.
Book Synopsis Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth by : Joseph George Bolten
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph George Bolten and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.
Book Synopsis Improved Affordability in DoD Acquisitions Through Strategic Management of Systemic Cost Risk by : David J. Petrucci
Download or read book Improved Affordability in DoD Acquisitions Through Strategic Management of Systemic Cost Risk written by David J. Petrucci and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "For almost 70 years, actual costs of Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) in the Department of Defense (DoD) have exceeded on average between 20% and 506% of their life cycle cost estimates, which are official expectations of actual program costs prior to completion. Despite numerous DoD acquisition reform efforts and implementation of sophisticated cost estimation techniques, this cost growth continues to exist. Accurate cost estimates are vital to the capital budgeting process for the DoD since they are used to set the affordability cap for each MDAP and across DoD Component weapon system program portfolios. Affordability is defined as the upper limit a DoD Component can allocate for a program without reducing costs or shifting resources between programs. To improve affordability in the DoD, a method that quantifies and adjusts for the persistent cost growth to enhance the accuracy of cost estimates is needed to promote more responsible and sustainable MDAP capital investment decisions. This thesis presents a simple yet powerful method of quantifying and correcting for systemic cost estimation risk in MDAPs to improve cost estimate accuracy and, consequently, affordability."--Abstract.
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services. Panel on Defense Acquisition Reform Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :90 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (319 download)
Book Synopsis Measuring Value and Efficiency by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services. Panel on Defense Acquisition Reform
Download or read book Measuring Value and Efficiency written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services. Panel on Defense Acquisition Reform and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Acquisition: Major Defense Acquisition Programs Cost Growth by :
Download or read book Acquisition: Major Defense Acquisition Programs Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) of 1993, Public Law 103-62, initiated program performance reform with a series of pilot projects by setting program goals, measuring program performance against those goals, and reporting publicly on progress achieved. This report is one in a series of reports on how DoD meets the GPRA goals and discusses the FY 2000 GPRA Performance Measure 2.4.1, Major Defense Acquisition Programs Cost Growth, on keeping the cost growth to 1 percent annually. Major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) are designated by the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (USD (AT&L) as a major defense acquisition program, or are estimated by USD (AT&L) as a program that requires an eventual total expenditure of more than $365 million in FY 2000 constant dollars for research, development, test, and evaluation or more than $2.19 billion in FY 2000 constant dollars for procurement. Cost growth is the difference between the MDAP program costs in the current year s budget and the previous year s budget, divided by the program costs in the previous year s budget.
Book Synopsis Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth. Analysis of 35 Major Defense Acquisition Programs by :
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth. Analysis of 35 Major Defense Acquisition Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous RAND Project AIR FORCE work has concluded that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments historically have underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Analysis of the data in Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) for a sample of 68 completed programs showed that the average total cost growth (after adjusting for procurement-quantity changes) was 46 percent over the baseline estimate made at Milestone B (MS B) and 16 percent over the baseline estimate made at MS C. The cost growth typically continued for about 75 percent of the time between the initiation of major development and the expending of 90 percent of program funding. Most of the cost growth occurred early in the acquisition phase, and the magnitude of development cost growth at completion for programs initiated in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s remained relatively steady. Although quantifying cost growth is important, the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To answer that question, this analysis examines 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) from the database of SARs that document the development and procurement of a variety of systems, including aircraft, missiles, electronics systems, launch vehicles, munitions, vehicles, and satellites. The programs were similar in type and complexity to those conducted by the Air Force. We analyzed a relatively small number of programs because of the labor-intensive nature of the work. We first examined the programs as a complete set and then analyzed Air Force and non Air Force programs separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differed.
Book Synopsis Extreme Cost Growth by : Mark A. Lorell
Download or read book Extreme Cost Growth written by Mark A. Lorell and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Prepared for the United States Air Force."
Book Synopsis Program Characteristics That Contribute to Cost Growth by : Mark A. Lorell
Download or read book Program Characteristics That Contribute to Cost Growth written by Mark A. Lorell and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This report is a companion report to an earlier report, which identified the main characteristics of six recent U.S. Air Force acquisition programs with extreme cost growth. This report evaluates four recent Air Force Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) with low cost growth and compares and contrasts their key characteristics to the six programs evaluated with extreme cost growth from the earlier report. The purpose is threefold. First, we seek to determine whether or not the key characteristics identified in the programs with extreme cost growth are present in the programs with low cost growth and, if not, why. If those characteristics are not present, we assume that this finding reinforces our view that the key characteristics of the extreme cost-growth programs that were identified are likely the root causes of extreme cost growth. Second, we seek to determine the common characteristics of the low cost-growth programs and whether such characteristics can be incorporated into future Air Force MDAPs. Finally, we revisit the main recommendations from our earlier report regarding approaches to mitigating extreme cost growth and, based on our findings from the low cost-growth programs, determine whether those recommendations are still valid and broadly applicable to future Air Force MDAPs. This report provides summary case studies of the four MDAPs with low cost growth, how the key characteristics of these programs compare with the six programs with extreme cost growth, and how these findings affect our earlier recommendations on mitigating the causes of extreme cost growth"--Publisher's description.
Book Synopsis Managing Uncertainty by : Robert L. Laughman
Download or read book Managing Uncertainty written by Robert L. Laughman and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The defense acquisition system may be improved through tough, sometimes controversial, decision making based on risk. Three areas of risk management will be examined in the form of good projections of technology maturation, achievable requirements, and producibility. Technology maturation risk will examine the technologies being pursued by major defense acquisition programs and whether the available technologies were underdeveloped at Milestone B based on technology readiness levels (TRL). The requirements investigation will examine how well the program was able to define requirements, map requirements against achievable near term technology, and keep requirements from expanding beyond the core set needed for the mission (what many refer to as "mission creep"). Producibility risk, defined as the ability to produce end items within the projected cost and schedule, will be examined in terms of overall program cost and schedule growth or program restructurings. Some major defense acquisition programs as case examples will be examined to determine influencing factors that affect program acquisition that are beyond the ability of the program office to control. Recommendations are included for areas of further study.
Book Synopsis Cost and Time Overruns for Major Defense Acquisition Programs by :
Download or read book Cost and Time Overruns for Major Defense Acquisition Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost and time overruns in Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) have become a high-profile problem attracting the interest of Congress, government and watchdog groups. According to the GAO, the 96 MDAPs from FY2008 collectively ran $296 billion over budget and were an average of 22 months behind schedule. President Obama's memo on government contracting of 4 March 2009 also highlighted this issue. This paper presents interim findings of research on the root causes of cost and schedule delays for MDAPs. This research is ongoing and will incorporate the 2010 SAR data. The final findings and policy recommendations will be presented at the May 2011 Naval Post Graduate School annual Acquisition Symposium.
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions: Measuring the Value of DoD¿s Weapon Programs Requires Starting with Realistic Baselines by : Michael J. Sullivan
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions: Measuring the Value of DoD¿s Weapon Programs Requires Starting with Realistic Baselines written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2006, the cumulative cost growth in DoD¿s portfolio of 96 major defense acquisition programs was $296 billion and the average delay in delivering promised capabilities to the warfighter was 22 months. These are very poor outcomes. The auditor has used metrics to review the mgmt. and health of these programs from within the framework of best practices. This testimony discusses: (1) ¿knowledge metrics,¿ used to determine how well programs manage tech., design, and manufacturing risks; (2) outcome metrics -- concerning cost, schedule, and capability -- that serve as ¿health indicators¿ of how well programs are being executed in terms of predicted outcomes; and (3) the prerequisites that must be met in order for a program¿s plans and goals to be realistic.
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : Michael J. Sullivan
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2008-10 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The DoD expects the cost to develop and procure the major weapon systems in its portfolio to total $1.6 trill. With increased competition for funding within DoD and across the fed. gov¿t., effectively managing these acquisitions is critical. Yet DoD programs often experience poor outcomes -- like increased costs and delayed fielding of needed capabilities. In 2006, a report was issued on DoD¿s processes for identifying needs and allocating resources for its weapon system programs. In 2007, it was reported that DoD consistently commits to more programs than it can support. This report assesses DoD¿s funding approach, identifies factors that influence the effectiveness of this approach, and identifies practices that could help improve DoD¿s approach.
Book Synopsis Expanding Operating and Support Cost Analysis for Major Programs During the DoD Acquisition Process by : Michael Boito
Download or read book Expanding Operating and Support Cost Analysis for Major Programs During the DoD Acquisition Process written by Michael Boito and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense."
Book Synopsis Achieving Program Success with Productive Outcomes by : Armond E. Sinclair
Download or read book Achieving Program Success with Productive Outcomes written by Armond E. Sinclair and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The DoD budget request for fiscal year 2015 was $560.4B, of which $154B was set aside for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) in the areas of Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDT&E), and Procurement (Harrison, 2014). "98 MDAPs from FY2010 collectively ran $402 billion over budget and were an average of 22 months behind schedule" (Hofbaur, Sanders, Ellman, & Morrow, 2011, p. 2). Each one of these MDAPs are created by organizations commonly known as government/defense contractors that have a high level of specialized knowledge (Junkunc, 2007), advanced manufacturing practices (Boyer & Lewis, 2002), and often times engage in concurrent engineering (Haddad, 1996). There is a clear research need to examine the thresholds and complexities faced by primary contract award winners of MDAPs when engaging in traditional concurrent engineering design practices. With an increase in government spending on defense programs there has also been a massive amount of overages of cost and time for MDAPs. It is the intention of this research to better understand the convolutions that plague defense contractors during their Integrated Product & Process Design efforts via concurrent engineering (Office of Under the Secretary of Defense, 1998; The Pymatuning Group, 1988). For this goal a forecasting model that assesses Product Complexity, Program Size, Work structure, Supply Chain Embeddedness, IS/IT Systems, Governance, and the degree in which a firm is ambidextrous during its concurrent engineering processes is posited. This framework juxtaposes Integrated Product and Process Design of traditional firms (Hong et al., 2004, 2005; Koufteros et al., 2007; Hong et al., 2011; Rauniar et al., 2008; Doll et al., 2010) to that of DoD contractors through empirical analysis and case studies. By doing so, it will allow identification of systemic key differentiators that retard the MDAP Integrated Product and Process Design efforts via concurrent engineering. The assumption is that MDAPs experience greater challenges in the areas of new product realization versus non-defense firms due to product complexity and size, work structure, supplier embeddedness, IS, and governance. These variables have been stratified into three strati based on Swanson's (1994) tri-core model, which is an adaptation of Richard Daft's (1978) Dual-Core model for innovation within the firm. The three strati used are the Technical-Core, Administrative-Core, and IS-Core. All three strati depict the practical norms of the conjectured variables. While some variables are strictly isolated to a single stratum, there are those that belong to more than one, which can explain the cross-functional bearing of a firm/program's operations between business units. This research model inherently possesses significant managerial implications, both operationally and financially. The theoretical contributions of this research were validated through a mixed methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and showcases the differences in concurrent engineering practices of non-defense firms and that of defense firms. This research has foundations based on theories from technology management's tricore model (Swanson, 1994), supply chain's grey-box vs black-box model (Koufteros, Edwin Cheng, & Lai, 2007), and operations' capabilities, absorptive capacity and ambidexterity frameworks (Boyer, Swink, & Rosenzweig, 2005; He & Wong, 2004; Tu, Vonderembse, Ragu-nathan, & Sharkey, 2006). It also extends the concurrent engineering dialog into modern day manufacturing practices for defense contractors.
Book Synopsis Acquisition Trends, 2018 by : Rhys McCormick
Download or read book Acquisition Trends, 2018 written by Rhys McCormick and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2019-09-16 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report analyzes the current state of affairs in defense acquisition by combining detailed policy and data analysis to provide a comprehensive overview of the current and future outlook for defense acquisition. This analysis will provide critical insights into what DoD is buying, how DoD is buying it, from whom is DoD buying, and what are the defense components buying using data from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS). This analysis provides critical insights into understanding the current trends in the defense industrial base and the implications of those trends on acquisition policy.
Book Synopsis Cost and Schedule Control Management by : Charles G. Coutteau
Download or read book Cost and Schedule Control Management written by Charles G. Coutteau and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : U S Government Accountability Office (G
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by U S Government Accountability Office (G and published by BiblioGov. This book was released on 2013-06 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: DOD has more than $1 trillion worth of major defense acquisition programs, on which it must report to Congress, including a comparison of a current program's costs to a baseline containing its cost, quantity, schedule, and performance goals. When these goals are changed, the program is "rebaselined" to reflect current status. However, measuring current estimates against the most recent baseline without additional perspectives may obscure for Congress how programs are performing over time. Concerned over this, you asked GAO to examine how DOD's use of rebaselining has affected the adequacy of data provided to Congress on major defense acquisition programs.
