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Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty
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Book Synopsis Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty by : Rossen Rozenov
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty written by Rossen Rozenov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt by : Issouf Samaké
Download or read book Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt written by Issouf Samaké and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-12-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
Book Synopsis Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt by : Cansın Kemal Can
Download or read book Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt written by Cansın Kemal Can and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.
Book Synopsis A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework by : Ms.Elena Loukoianova
Download or read book A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework written by Ms.Elena Loukoianova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-02-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.
Book Synopsis Public Debt Sustainability by : Barry W. Poulson
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability written by Barry W. Poulson and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-01-04 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic, they are confronted with an even more challenging debt crisis. Xavier Debrun argues in the foreword that in deciding where we go from here that there is no longer a consensus regarding the optimum design and enforcement of fiscal rules. Rather we must address a series of questions and challenges to the conventional wisdom. This book provides an opportunity for scholars to explore these questions from an international perspective, with reference to European countries, and emerging nations as well as the United States.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Sustainability by : Mr.Evan Tanner
Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability written by Mr.Evan Tanner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro’s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.
Book Synopsis Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia by : Benno Ferrarini
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia written by Benno Ferrarini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing the Global Financial Crisis required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent build up of public debt, in particular its sustainability, have moved centre stage in the policy debate. If the Asia Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth its public debt must be sustainable. The book addresses this issue for Asia Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: China, India and Vietnam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons why there is increased attention on debt related issues and outline the contents of the volume. The book also includes fiscal indicators for Developing Member Countries (DMCs) as categorized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Debt sustainability for these countries is assessed through extant approaches and with the most updated data sources. It also surveys the extant literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to debt sustainability and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. The book highlights the importance of doing individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g. federal), and the like as well as in the impact of debt on interest rates. It provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses of China, India and Vietnam. The book is a comprehensive analytical and empirical update of the sustainability public debt in developing Asia. It breakes new ground in that various characteristics of the sustainability that have not yet been explored in the literature which, nevertheless, are crucial to understanding it. As a consequence, the policy analysis is based on firmer footings than in the extant literature and should prove useful to graduate students, researchers as well as policymakers.
Book Synopsis Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth by : Alfred Greiner
Download or read book Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth written by Alfred Greiner and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-10-14 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public debt has become a severe problem for a great many economies. While the effects of tax policies on the allocation of resources are readily derived, the mechanisms that make public deficits and debt influence the economy are not so easily understood. This book elaborates on the effects of public debt starting from the intertemporal budget constraint of the government. It is shown under which conditions a government can stick to the intertemporal budget constraint and then, demonstrated how public debt affects the growth process and welfare in market economies. The effects are derived for models with complete labor markets as well as taking into account labor market imperfections. The focus in this book is on fiscal policy issues, but it also deals with monetary policy aspects. The theoretical analysis is complemented with empirical time series analyses on debt sustainability and with panel studies dealing with the relationship between public debt and economic growth.
Book Synopsis Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty by : Mr.Carlo Cottarelli
Download or read book Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty written by Mr.Carlo Cottarelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-12-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the conditions for sustainability of debt roll-over schemes under uncertainty. In contrast with the requirements identified in recent research, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainability of such schemes is that the asymptotic interest rate on government debt be lower than the asymptotic growth rate of the economy, a natural extension of a familiar criterion in a deterministic framework. However, we also show that for realistic parameter values, Ponzi games that are sustainable in the long run may display explosive patterns over relatively long horizons. This may explain why governments may be reluctant to play Ponzi games even when they are feasible in the long run.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-21 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
Book Synopsis Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability by : Mr.Serhan Cevik
Download or read book Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-07 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the cyclicality and sustainability of fiscal policy in Belize and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis shows that fiscal policy in Belize has been significantly procyclical and unsustainable much of the period since 1976. While the government’s recent commitment to maintain a primary surplus of at least 2 percent of GDP until 2021 is supporting debt reduction, stochastic simulations indicate that further improvement in the primary balance is necessary to reliably bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable path. Given Belize’s history of large economic shocks, this paper proposes explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and debt sustainability. It recommends integrating such rules into a well-designed fiscal responsibility law and establishing an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency.
Book Synopsis Guidelines for Public Debt Management -- Amended by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Guidelines for Public Debt Management -- Amended written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-09-12 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Book Synopsis Fiscal Sustainability and the Fiscal Reaction Function for South Africa by : Charl Jooste
Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability and the Fiscal Reaction Function for South Africa written by Charl Jooste and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating the question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (OLS, VAR, TAR, GMM, State-Space modelling and VECM). The paper finds that since 1946 the South African government has ran a sustainable fiscal policy, by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, the paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/GDP ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.
Book Synopsis Tax Policy and Uncertainty by : Christopher Ball
Download or read book Tax Policy and Uncertainty written by Christopher Ball and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2020-11-27 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presenting innovative modelling approaches to the analysis of fiscal policy and government debt, this book moves beyond previous models that have relied upon the assumption that various age-specific rates and policy variables remain unchanged when it comes to generating government expenditures and tax revenues. As a result of population ageing, current policy settings in many countries are projected to lead to unsustainable levels of public debt; Tax Policy and Uncertainty explores models that allow for feedbacks and uncertainty to combat this.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt by : Issouf Samake
Download or read book Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt written by Issouf Samake and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
Book Synopsis Safe Debt and Uncertainty in Emerging Markets by : Mr.Magnus Saxegaard
Download or read book Safe Debt and Uncertainty in Emerging Markets written by Mr.Magnus Saxegaard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a methodology for estimating a safe public debt level that would allow countries to remain below a maximum sustainable debt limit, taking into account the impact of uncertainty. Our analysis implies that fiscal policy should target a debt level well below the debt ceiling to allow space to absorb shocks that are likely to hit the economy. To illustrate our findings we apply the methodology to estimate a safe debt level for South Africa. Our results suggest that South Africa’s debt ceiling is around 60 percent of GDP, although uncertainty is high. Simulations suggest targeting a debt-to-GDP ratio of 40 percent of GDP would allow South Africa to remain below this debt ceiling over the medium-term with a high degree of confidence.
