Probability Statistics And Other Frightening Stuff

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Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff

Author : Alan R. Jones
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 135166137X
Total Pages : 467 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff by : Alan R. Jones

Download or read book Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 467 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff (Volume II of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) considers many of the commonly used Descriptive Statistics in the world of estimating and forecasting. It considers values that are representative of the ‘middle ground’ (Measures of Central Tendency), and the degree of data scatter (Measures of Dispersion and Shape) around the ‘middle ground’ values. A number of Probability Distributions and where they might be used are discussed, along with some fascinating and useful ‘rules of thumb’ or short-cut properties that estimators and forecasters can exploit in plying their trade. With the help of a ‘Correlation Chicken’, the concept of partial correlation is explained, including how the estimator or forecaster can exploit this in reflecting varying levels of independence and imperfect dependence between an output or predicted value (such as cost) and an input or predictor variable such as size. Under the guise of ‘Tails of the unexpected’ the book concludes with two chapters devoted to Hypothesis Testing (or knowing when to accept or reject the validity of an assumed estimating relationship), and a number of statistically-based tests to help the estimator to decide whether to include or exclude a data point as an ‘outlier’, one that appears not to be representative of that which the estimator is tasked to produce. This is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff

Author : Alan Jones
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781032948539
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (485 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff by : Alan Jones

Download or read book Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff written by Alan Jones and published by . This book was released on 2024-10-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff

Author : Alan R. Jones
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351661388
Total Pages : 472 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff by : Alan R. Jones

Download or read book Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff (Volume II of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) considers many of the commonly used Descriptive Statistics in the world of estimating and forecasting. It considers values that are representative of the ‘middle ground’ (Measures of Central Tendency), and the degree of data scatter (Measures of Dispersion and Shape) around the ‘middle ground’ values. A number of Probability Distributions and where they might be used are discussed, along with some fascinating and useful ‘rules of thumb’ or short-cut properties that estimators and forecasters can exploit in plying their trade. With the help of a ‘Correlation Chicken’, the concept of partial correlation is explained, including how the estimator or forecaster can exploit this in reflecting varying levels of independence and imperfect dependence between an output or predicted value (such as cost) and an input or predictor variable such as size. Under the guise of ‘Tails of the unexpected’ the book concludes with two chapters devoted to Hypothesis Testing (or knowing when to accept or reject the validity of an assumed estimating relationship), and a number of statistically-based tests to help the estimator to decide whether to include or exclude a data point as an ‘outlier’, one that appears not to be representative of that which the estimator is tasked to produce. This is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models

Author : Alan R. Jones
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351661299
Total Pages : 292 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models by : Alan R. Jones

Download or read book Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-09-13 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are ‘black boxes’ and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the ‘black box’. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of ‘it must be right!’ Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Best Fit Lines & Curves

Author : Alan R. Jones
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351661442
Total Pages : 498 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Best Fit Lines & Curves by : Alan R. Jones

Download or read book Best Fit Lines & Curves written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations (Volume III of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) concentrates on techniques for finding the Best Fit Line or Curve to some historical data allowing us to interpolate or extrapolate the implied relationship that will underpin our prediction. A range of simple ‘Moving Measures’ are suggested to smooth the underlying trend and quantify the degree of noise or scatter around that trend. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed and a simple way to offset the latent disadvantage of most Moving Measure Techniques is provided. Simple Linear Regression Analysis, a more formal numerical technique that calculates the line of best fit subject to defined ‘goodness of fit’ criteria. Microsoft Excel is used to demonstrate how to decide whether the line of best fit is a good fit, or just a solution in search of some data. These principles are then extended to cover multiple cost drivers, and how we can use them to quantify 3-Point Estimates. With a deft sleight of hand, certain commonly occurring families of non-linear relationships can be transformed mathe-magically into linear formats, allowing us to exploit the powers of Regression Analysis to find the Best Fit Curves. The concludes with an exploration of the ups and downs of seasonal data (Time Series Analysis). Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling

Author : Alan R. Jones
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351661353
Total Pages : 242 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling by : Alan R. Jones

Download or read book Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-09-13 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling (Volume 1 of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) sets the scene of TRACEability and good estimate practice that is followed in the other volumes in this series of five working guides. It clarifies the difference between an Estimating Process, Procedure, Approach, Method and Technique. It expands on these definitions of Approach (Top-down, Bottom-up and ‘Ethereal’) and Method (Analogy, Parametric and ‘Trusted Source’) and discusses how these form the basis of all other means of establishing an estimate. This volume also underlines the importance of ‘data normalisation’ in any estimating procedure, and demonstrates that the Estimating by Analogy Method, in essence, is a simple extension of Data Normalisation. The author looks at simple measures of assessing the maturity or health of an estimate, and offers a means of assessing a spreadsheet for any inherent risks or errors that may be introduced by failing to follow good practice in spreadsheet design and build. This book provides a taster of the more numerical techniques covered in the remainder of the series by considering how an estimator can potentially exploit Benford’s Law (traditionally used in Fraud Detection) to identify systematic bias from third party contributors. It will be a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Applications of Networks, Sensors and Autonomous Systems Analytics

Author : Jyotsna Kumar Mandal
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811673055
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (116 download)

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Book Synopsis Applications of Networks, Sensors and Autonomous Systems Analytics by : Jyotsna Kumar Mandal

Download or read book Applications of Networks, Sensors and Autonomous Systems Analytics written by Jyotsna Kumar Mandal and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-11-27 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents high-quality research papers presented at International Conference on Applications of Networks, Sensors and Autonomous Systems Analytics (ICANSAA 2020), held during December, 11 – 12, 2020, at JIS College of Engineering, Kalyani, West Bengal, India. The major topics covered are cyber-physical systems and sensor networks, data analytics and autonomous systems and MEMS and NEMS with applications in biomedical devices. It includes novel and innovative work from experts, practitioners, scientists, and decision-makers from academia and industry.

Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves

Author : Alan R. Jones
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351661477
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves by : Alan R. Jones

Download or read book Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-09-13 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learning, Unlearning and Re-learning Curves (Volume IV of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) focuses in on Learning Curves, and the various tried and tested models of Wright, Crawford, DeJong, Towill-Bevis and others. It explores the differences and similarities between the various models and examines the key properties that Estimators and Forecasters can exploit. A discussion about Learning Curve Cost Drivers leads to the consideration of a little used but very powerful technique of Learning Curve modelling called Segmentation, which looks at an organisation’s complex learning curve as the product of multiple shallower learning curves. Perhaps the biggest benefit is that it simplifies the calculations in Microsoft Excel where there is a change in the rate of learning observed or expected. The same technique can be used to model and calibrate discontinuities in the learning process that result in setbacks and uplifts in time or cost. This technique is compared with other, better known techniques such as Anderlohr’s. Equivalent Unit Learning is another, relative new technique that can be used alongside traditional completed unit learning to give an early warning of changes in the rates of learning. Finally, a Learning Curve can be exploited to estimate the penalty of collaborative working across multiple partners. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists, as well as students of cost engineering.

Hormones, Sex, and Happiness

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Hormones, Sex, and Happiness by :

Download or read book Hormones, Sex, and Happiness written by and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Book of Why

Author : Judea Pearl
Publisher : Basic Books
ISBN 13 : 0465097618
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (65 download)

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Book Synopsis The Book of Why by : Judea Pearl

Download or read book The Book of Why written by Judea Pearl and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2018-05-15 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

Sources of Proof

Author : Missouri Bar. Committee on Legal Education
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 198 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Sources of Proof by : Missouri Bar. Committee on Legal Education

Download or read book Sources of Proof written by Missouri Bar. Committee on Legal Education and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking

Author : Stephen K. Campbell
Publisher : Courier Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0486140512
Total Pages : 210 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (861 download)

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Book Synopsis Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking by : Stephen K. Campbell

Download or read book Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking written by Stephen K. Campbell and published by Courier Corporation. This book was released on 2012-05-14 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nontechnical survey helps improve ability to judge statistical evidence and to make better-informed decisions. Discusses common pitfalls: unrealistic estimates, improper comparisons, premature conclusions, and faulty thinking about probability. 1974 edition.

Probability Theory

Author :
Publisher : Allied Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9788177644517
Total Pages : 436 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (445 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability Theory by :

Download or read book Probability Theory written by and published by Allied Publishers. This book was released on 2013 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability theory

Why We Sleep

Author : Matthew Walker
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1501144316
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis Why We Sleep by : Matthew Walker

Download or read book Why We Sleep written by Matthew Walker and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2017-10-03 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Sleep is one of the most important but least understood aspects of our life, wellness, and longevity ... An explosion of scientific discoveries in the last twenty years has shed new light on this fundamental aspect of our lives. Now ... neuroscientist and sleep expert Matthew Walker gives us a new understanding of the vital importance of sleep and dreaming"--Amazon.com.

Statistics for Terrified Biologists

Author : Helmut F. van Emden
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119563682
Total Pages : 413 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistics for Terrified Biologists by : Helmut F. van Emden

Download or read book Statistics for Terrified Biologists written by Helmut F. van Emden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-07-09 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Makes mathematical and statistical analysis understandable to even the least math-minded biology student This unique textbook aims to demystify statistical formulae for the average biology student. Written in a lively and engaging style, Statistics for Terrified Biologists, 2nd Edition draws on the author’s 30 years of lecturing experience to teach statistical methods to even the most guarded of biology students. It presents basic methods using straightforward, jargon-free language. Students are taught to use simple formulae and how to interpret what is being measured with each test and statistic, while at the same time learning to recognize overall patterns and guiding principles. Complemented by simple examples and useful case studies, this is an ideal statistics resource tool for undergraduate biology and environmental science students who lack confidence in their mathematical abilities. Statistics for Terrified Biologists presents readers with the basic foundations of parametric statistics, the t-test, analysis of variance, linear regression and chi-square, and guides them to important extensions of these techniques. It introduces them to non-parametric tests, and includes a checklist of non-parametric methods linked to their parametric counterparts. The book also provides many end-of-chapter summaries and additional exercises to help readers understand and practice what they’ve learned. Presented in a clear and easy-to-understand style Makes statistics tangible and enjoyable for even the most hesitant student Features multiple formulas to facilitate comprehension Written by of the foremost entomologists of his generation This second edition of Statistics for Terrified Biologists is an invaluable guide that will be of great benefit to pre-health and biology undergraduate students.

PSI: Personalized System of Instruction

Author : John Gilmour Sherman
Publisher : Addison Wesley Longman
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis PSI: Personalized System of Instruction by : John Gilmour Sherman

Download or read book PSI: Personalized System of Instruction written by John Gilmour Sherman and published by Addison Wesley Longman. This book was released on 1974 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Statistics Hacks

Author : Bruce Frey
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 0596553994
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (965 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistics Hacks by : Bruce Frey

Download or read book Statistics Hacks written by Bruce Frey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2006-05-09 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Want to calculate the probability that an event will happen? Be able to spot fake data? Prove beyond doubt whether one thing causes another? Or learn to be a better gambler? You can do that and much more with 75 practical and fun hacks packed into Statistics Hacks. These cool tips, tricks, and mind-boggling solutions from the world of statistics, measurement, and research methods will not only amaze and entertain you, but will give you an advantage in several real-world situations-including business. This book is ideal for anyone who likes puzzles, brainteasers, games, gambling, magic tricks, and those who want to apply math and science to everyday circumstances. Several hacks in the first chapter alone-such as the "central limit theorem,", which allows you to know everything by knowing just a little-serve as sound approaches for marketing and other business objectives. Using the tools of inferential statistics, you can understand the way probability works, discover relationships, predict events with uncanny accuracy, and even make a little money with a well-placed wager here and there. Statistics Hacks presents useful techniques from statistics, educational and psychological measurement, and experimental research to help you solve a variety of problems in business, games, and life. You'll learn how to: Play smart when you play Texas Hold 'Em, blackjack, roulette, dice games, or even the lottery Design your own winnable bar bets to make money and amaze your friends Predict the outcomes of baseball games, know when to "go for two" in football, and anticipate the winners of other sporting events with surprising accuracy Demystify amazing coincidences and distinguish the truly random from the only seemingly random--even keep your iPod's "random" shuffle honest Spot fraudulent data, detect plagiarism, and break codes How to isolate the effects of observation on the thing observed Whether you're a statistics enthusiast who does calculations in your sleep or a civilian who is entertained by clever solutions to interesting problems, Statistics Hacks has tools to give you an edge over the world's slim odds.