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Probabilistic Forecast Models For Hydro Environmental Characteristics And Risk Based Adaptive Reservoir Operation
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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Forecast Models for Hydro-environmental Characteristics and Risk-based Adaptive Reservoir Operation by : Han-Goo Lee
Download or read book Probabilistic Forecast Models for Hydro-environmental Characteristics and Risk-based Adaptive Reservoir Operation written by Han-Goo Lee and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Third, probabilistic BOD and TP models were developed using Bayesian networks. The relationships between reservoir release and risk of violating the water quality standards were derived. The case study clearly demonstrated that the probabilistic models overcome the weaknesses of deterministic water quality models by offering information about risks of violation of standards.
Book Synopsis Advances in Hydrologic Forecasts and Water Resources Management by : Fi-John Chang
Download or read book Advances in Hydrologic Forecasts and Water Resources Management written by Fi-John Chang and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-01-20 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impacts of climate change on water resource management, as well as increasingly severe natural disasters over the last decades, have caught global attention. Reliable and accurate hydrological forecasts are essential for efficient water resource management and the mitigation of natural disasters. While the notorious nonlinear hydrological processes make accurate forecasts a very challenging task, it requires advanced techniques to build accurate forecast models and reliable management systems. One of the newest techniques for modeling complex systems is artificial intelligence (AI). AI can replicate the way humans learn and has great capability to efficiently extract crucial information from large amounts of data to solve complex problems. The fourteen research papers published in this Special Issue contribute significantly to the uncertainty assessment of operational hydrologic forecasting under changing environmental conditions and the promotion of water resources management by using the latest advanced techniques, such as AI techniques. The fourteen contributions across four major research areas: (1) machine learning approaches to hydrologic forecasting; (2) uncertainty analysis and assessment on hydrological modeling under changing environments; (3) AI techniques for optimizing multi-objective reservoir operation; (4) adaption strategies of extreme hydrological events for hazard mitigation. The papers published in this issue will not only advance water sciences but also help policymakers to achieve more sustainable and effective water resource management.
Book Synopsis Routledge Handbook of Water Economics and Institutions by : Kimberly Burnett
Download or read book Routledge Handbook of Water Economics and Institutions written by Kimberly Burnett and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-12-05 with total page 427 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growing scarcity of freshwater worldwide brings to light the need for sound water resource modeling and policy analysis. While a solid foundation has been established for many specific water management problems, combining those methods and principles in a unified framework remains an ongoing challenge. This Handbook aims to expand the scope of efficient water use to include allocation of sources and quantities across uses and time, as well as integrating demand-management with supply-side substitutes. Socially efficient water use does not generally coincide with private decisions in the real world, however. Examples of mechanisms designed to incentivize efficient behavior are drawn from agricultural water use, municipal water regulation, and externalities linked to water resources. Water management is further complicated when information is costly and/or imperfect. Standard optimization frameworks are extended to allow for coordination costs, games and cooperation, and risk allocation. When operating efficiently, water markets are often viewed as a desirable means of allocation because a market price incentivizes users to move resources from low to high value activities. However, early attempts at water trading have run into many obstacles. Case studies from the United States, Australia, Europe, and Canada highlight the successes and remaining challenges of establishing efficient water markets.
Book Synopsis Improving Multi-reservoir Water Supply System Operation Using Ensemble Forecasting and Global Sensitivity Analysis by : Reza Limon
Download or read book Improving Multi-reservoir Water Supply System Operation Using Ensemble Forecasting and Global Sensitivity Analysis written by Reza Limon and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this research is to improve the cost-effectiveness, reliability and resilience of water supply system operation through the utilization of ensemble forecasting and optimization of the operating policies. For the effective operation of a multi-reservoir water supply system skillful inflow and outflow forecasts are required. To that end, this research first assesses the value of medium-range ensemble precipitation forecasts generated with the HEFS developed by the US NWS in increasing skill and lead time of ensemble inflow forecasts. The skill of reservoir outflow forecasts is then assessed using three different models with varying complexity. Also assessed in the above is the relative importance of meteorological, hydrologic and reservoir modeling uncertainty in outflow forecasts. Lastly, the proposed policy modifications were optimized via global sensitivity analysis using the variance-based Sobol method to improve cost-effectiveness of the system operation further. The analysis results identify influential policies, assess their impact on the cost response of the system operation, and determine policy modifications. Main conclusions of this research follow below. Compared to using only the 72-hr RFC QPF, the use of the medium-range precipitation forecasts from GEFS increases skill and lead time of mean daily inflow forecasts from HEFS by up to 3 days for significant events. The HEFS-produced multi-daily inflow forecasts are significantly more skillful than the daily inflow forecasts, and extends the lead time of skillful forecasting further. It is demonstrated that the use of the HEFS-produced ensemble inflow forecasts results in significant savings in mean annual pumping cost, compared to the TRWD's current practice of inflow forecasting. Among the three reservoir models considered in this work, RiverWare provides the largest skill in MEFP-GEFS-forced outflow forecasts. It is shown that meteorological, hydrologic and reservoir modeling uncertainties are comparably importance in improving skill of reservoir outflow forecasts. However, the decomposition of total predictive uncertainty into the above three indicates that the relative importance varies significantly with lead time and among different reservoir models. Evaluation of reservoir outflow forecasts for specific large outflow events shows that, although the reservoir outflow forecasts forced by the HEFS inflow forecasts are not probabilistically unbiased for very large to extreme events, the ensemble spread of the outflow forecasts is generally able to encompass the observed pool elevation and outflow. As such, the HEFS inflow forecasts provide additional critical information not available from single-valued forecasts for risk-based decision making in reservoir operations.Among the five operating policies selected for considered for modification, only one or two exert large influence on the cost for a given year. The influential polices, however, vary very significantly from year to year. The cost response of the system to policy modifications is complex and shows large interannual variations. Hydroclimatic conditions, storage states, inflow, and demand largely determine the influential policies and their modifications. It is shown that annually-varying, or dynamic, determination of policy modifications offer significantly larger potential for cost savings than using optimized, but fixed, policy modifications.
Book Synopsis Advances in Hydrologic Forecasts and Water Resources Management by : Fi-John Chang
Download or read book Advances in Hydrologic Forecasts and Water Resources Management written by Fi-John Chang and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impacts of climate change on water resource management, as well as increasingly severe natural disasters over the last decades, have caught global attention. Reliable and accurate hydrological forecasts are essential for efficient water resource management and the mitigation of natural disasters. While the notorious nonlinear hydrological processes make accurate forecasts a very challenging task, it requires advanced techniques to build accurate forecast models and reliable management systems. One of the newest techniques for modeling complex systems is artificial intelligence (AI). AI can replicate the way humans learn and has great capability to efficiently extract crucial information from large amounts of data to solve complex problems. The fourteen research papers published in this Special Issue contribute significantly to the uncertainty assessment of operational hydrologic forecasting under changing environmental conditions and the promotion of water resources management by using the latest advanced techniques, such as AI techniques. The fourteen contributions across four major research areas: (1) machine learning approaches to hydrologic forecasting; (2) uncertainty analysis and assessment on hydrological modeling under changing environments; (3) AI techniques for optimizing multi-objective reservoir operation; (4) adaption strategies of extreme hydrological events for hazard mitigation. The papers published in this issue will not only advance water sciences but also help policymakers to achieve more sustainable and effective water resource management.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts in Hydropower Systems Operation by : Michael Osina Torrez
Download or read book Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts in Hydropower Systems Operation written by Michael Osina Torrez and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Canada, like in many OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, the more efficient use of existing hydropower assets is becoming increasingly relevant. The optimal operation of a hydroelectric system is a sequential decision making problem. A sequence of release decisions must be determined over a given planning period taking into account a variety of physical and ecological constraints. Since this planning period may extend over a more or less distant future, release decisions are influenced by the availability of reliable hydrologic forecasts, including hydrological ensemble prediction systems (H-EPS). Hydrologists often rely on statistical scores to assess the reliability and accuracy of H-EPS, but those scores do not give any indication of the economic value of the forecasts. This study seeks to identify the most relevant attributes of ensemble hydrological forecasts in hydropower production. To do this, a large set of forecasts is built from 20 hydrological models and ensemble meteorological forecasts of 50 members over a period of 6 years (2011-2016). From this large set, several H-EPS are then produced (configured) and used by a hydroelectric optimization model. The management of the water system is then simulated on a rolling horizon over a period of 6 years (2011-2016). The simulation results indicate that there is a trend between the overall quality and the value of the forecast in terms of energy production, but that this relationship is not directly proportional (1: 1). The multi-model setup works a bit better than the other setups. In addition, the simulation results show that the ensemble forecast at short-term (ST) has value, but the room for improvement is clearly in the forecast at mid-term (MT, seasonal), as a large reservoir upstream controls the availability of water throughout the system. In addition, probabilistic forecasts give better performance than determinists, because they provide information on the uncertainty of the optimization model. Finally, ST forecasts have value while ST-MT optimization models are coupled.
Book Synopsis Reservoir System Management Under Uncertainty by : Martin Kistenmacher
Download or read book Reservoir System Management Under Uncertainty written by Martin Kistenmacher and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reservoir systems are subject to several uncertainties that are the result of imperfect knowledge about system behavior and inputs. A major source of uncertainty arises from the inability to predict future inflows. Fortunately, it is often possible to generate probabilistic forecasts of inflow volumes in the form of probability density functions or ensembles. These inflow forecasts can be coupled with stochastic management models to determine reservoir release policies and provide stakeholders with meaningful information of upcoming system responses such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. This information on anticipated system responses is also expressed in the form of forecasts that must reliably represent the actual system behavior when it eventually occurs. The first part of this study presents an assessment methodology that can be used to determine the consistency of ensemble forecasts through the use of relative frequency histograms and minimum spanning trees (MST). This methodology is then used to assess a management model's ability to produce reliable ensemble forecasts. It was found that neglecting to account for hydrologic state variables and improperly modeling the finite management horizon decrease ensemble consistency. Several extensions to the existing management model are also developed and evaluated. The second portion of this study involves the management of the uncertainties in reservoir systems. Traditional management models only find management policies that optimize the expected values of system benefits or costs, thereby not allowing operators and stakeholders to explicitly explore issues related to uncertainty and risk management. A technique that can be used to derive management policies that produce desired probabilistic distributions of reservoir system outputs reflecting stakeholder preferences is developed. This technique can be embedded in a user-interactive framework that can be employed to evaluate the trade-offs and build consensus in multi-objective and multi-stakeholder systems. The methods developed in this dissertation are illustrated in case studies of real reservoir systems, including a seven-reservoir, multi-objective system in California's Central Valley.
Download or read book Hydrometeorology written by Kevin Sene and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-12-12 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes recent developments in hydrometeorological forecasting techniques for a range of timescales, from short term to seasonal and longer terms. It conveniently brings together both meteorological and hydrological aspects in a single volume.
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Book Synopsis Selected Water Resources Abstracts by :
Download or read book Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods by : Fi-John Chang
Download or read book Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods written by Fi-John Chang and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-02-28 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nowadays, the degree and scale of flood hazards has been massively increasing as a result of the changing climate, and large-scale floods jeopardize lives and properties, causing great economic losses, in the inundation-prone areas of the world. Early flood warning systems are promising countermeasures against flood hazards and losses. A collaborative assessment according to multiple disciplines, comprising hydrology, remote sensing, and meteorology, of the magnitude and impacts of flood hazards on inundation areas significantly contributes to model the integrity and precision of flood forecasting. Methodologically oriented countermeasures against flood hazards may involve the forecasting of reservoir inflows, river flows, tropical cyclone tracks, and flooding at different lead times and/or scales. Analyses of impacts, risks, uncertainty, resilience, and scenarios coupled with policy-oriented suggestions will give information for flood hazard mitigation. Emerging advances in computing technologies coupled with big-data mining have boosted data-driven applications, among which Machine Learning technology, with its flexibility and scalability in pattern extraction, has modernized not only scientific thinking but also predictive applications. This book explores recent Machine Learning advances on flood forecast and management in a timely manner and presents interdisciplinary approaches to modelling the complexity of flood hazards-related issues, with contributions to integrative solutions from a local, regional or global perspective.
Book Synopsis The 41st Conference of the International Association for Great Lakes Research by : International Association for Great Lakes Research
Download or read book The 41st Conference of the International Association for Great Lakes Research written by International Association for Great Lakes Research and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design by : Patrick A. Ray
Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.
Book Synopsis Conference of the International Association for Great Lakes Research by :
Download or read book Conference of the International Association for Great Lakes Research written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 776 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) by : Mendoza, Guillermo
Download or read book Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) written by Mendoza, Guillermo and published by UNESCO Publishing. This book was released on 2018-12-31 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Data-Driven Modeling: Using MATLAB® in Water Resources and Environmental Engineering by : Shahab Araghinejad
Download or read book Data-Driven Modeling: Using MATLAB® in Water Resources and Environmental Engineering written by Shahab Araghinejad and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-26 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Data-Driven Modeling: Using MATLAB® in Water Resources and Environmental Engineering” provides a systematic account of major concepts and methodologies for data-driven models and presents a unified framework that makes the subject more accessible to and applicable for researchers and practitioners. It integrates important theories and applications of data-driven models and uses them to deal with a wide range of problems in the field of water resources and environmental engineering such as hydrological forecasting, flood analysis, water quality monitoring, regionalizing climatic data, and general function approximation. The book presents the statistical-based models including basic statistical analysis, nonparametric and logistic regression methods, time series analysis and modeling, and support vector machines. It also deals with the analysis and modeling based on artificial intelligence techniques including static and dynamic neural networks, statistical neural networks, fuzzy inference systems, and fuzzy regression. The book also discusses hybrid models as well as multi-model data fusion to wrap up the covered models and techniques. The source files of relatively simple and advanced programs demonstrating how to use the models are presented together with practical advice on how to best apply them. The programs, which have been developed using the MATLAB® unified platform, can be found on extras.springer.com. The main audience of this book includes graduate students in water resources engineering, environmental engineering, agricultural engineering, and natural resources engineering. This book may be adapted for use as a senior undergraduate and graduate textbook by focusing on selected topics. Alternatively, it may also be used as a valuable resource book for practicing engineers, consulting engineers, scientists and others involved in water resources and environmental engineering.
Book Synopsis Climate Impacts on Energy Systems by : Jane O. Ebinger
Download or read book Climate Impacts on Energy Systems written by Jane O. Ebinger and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2011 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible."
