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Probabilistic Day Ahead Forecasting Using An Analog Ensemble Approach For Wind Farm Grid Services
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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Day-ahead Forecasting Using an Analog Ensemble Approach for Wind Farm Grid Services by : Andrew Kumler
Download or read book Probabilistic Day-ahead Forecasting Using an Analog Ensemble Approach for Wind Farm Grid Services written by Andrew Kumler and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts by : Stéphane Vannitsem
Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. - Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place - Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts - Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner
Book Synopsis Renewable Energy Forecasting by : Georges Kariniotakis
Download or read book Renewable Energy Forecasting written by Georges Kariniotakis and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. - Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume - Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries - Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting - Contains chapters on operational applications
Book Synopsis Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment by : Jan Kleissl
Download or read book Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment written by Jan Kleissl and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-06-25 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators' concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. - The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world's most renowned experts. - Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. - Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction.
Book Synopsis Integrating Renewables in Electricity Markets by : Juan M. Morales
Download or read book Integrating Renewables in Electricity Markets written by Juan M. Morales and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-03 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This addition to the ISOR series addresses the analytics of the operations of electric energy systems with increasing penetration of stochastic renewable production facilities, such as wind- and solar-based generation units. As stochastic renewable production units become ubiquitous throughout electric energy systems, an increasing level of flexible backup provided by non-stochastic units and other system agents is needed if supply security and quality are to be maintained. Within the context above, this book provides up-to-date analytical tools to address challenging operational problems such as: • The modeling and forecasting of stochastic renewable power production. • The characterization of the impact of renewable production on market outcomes. • The clearing of electricity markets with high penetration of stochastic renewable units. • The development of mechanisms to counteract the variability and unpredictability of stochastic renewable units so that supply security is not at risk. • The trading of the electric energy produced by stochastic renewable producers. • The association of a number of electricity production facilities, stochastic and others, to increase their competitive edge in the electricity market. • The development of procedures to enable demand response and to facilitate the integration of stochastic renewable units. This book is written in a modular and tutorial manner and includes many illustrative examples to facilitate its comprehension. It is intended for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in the fields of electric energy systems, applied mathematics and economics. Practitioners in the electric energy sector will benefit as well from the concepts and techniques explained in this book.
Book Synopsis Forecast Verification by : Ian T. Jolliffe
Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
Book Synopsis Big Data Application in Power Systems by : Reza Arghandeh
Download or read book Big Data Application in Power Systems written by Reza Arghandeh and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2024-07-01 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Big Data Application in Power Systems, Second Edition presents a thorough update of the previous volume, providing readers with step-by-step guidance in big data analytics utilization for power system diagnostics, operation, and control. Bringing back a team of global experts and drawing on fresh, emerging perspectives, this book provides cutting-edge advice for meeting today's challenges in this rapidly accelerating area of power engineering. Divided into three parts, this book begins by breaking down the big picture for electric utilities, before zooming in to examine theoretical problems and solutions in detail. Finally, the third section provides case studies and applications, demonstrating solution troubleshooting and design from a variety of perspectives and for a range of technologies. Readers will develop new strategies and techniques for leveraging data towards real-world outcomes. Including five brand new chapters on emerging technological solutions, Big Data Application in Power Systems, Second Edition remains an essential resource for the reader aiming to utilize the potential of big data in the power systems of the future. - Provides a total refresh to include the most up-to-date research, developments, and challenges - Focuses on practical techniques, including rapidly modernizing monitoring systems, measurement data availability, big data handling and machine learning approaches for processing high dimensional, heterogeneous, and spatiotemporal data - Engages with cross-disciplinary lessons, drawing on the impact of intersectional technology including statistics, computer science, and bioinformatics - Includes five brand new chapters on hot topics, ranging from uncertainty decision-making to features, selection methods, and the opportunities provided by social network data
Book Synopsis Interpolation of Spatial Data by : Michael L. Stein
Download or read book Interpolation of Spatial Data written by Michael L. Stein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A summary of past work and a description of new approaches to thinking about kriging, commonly used in the prediction of a random field based on observations at some set of locations in mining, hydrology, atmospheric sciences, and geography.
Book Synopsis Wind Resource Assessment by : Michael Brower
Download or read book Wind Resource Assessment written by Michael Brower and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-06-19 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical, authoritative guide to the assessment of wind resources for utility-scale wind projects authored by a team of experts from a leading renewable energy consultancy The successful development of wind energy projects depends on an accurate assessment of where, how often, and how strongly the wind blows. A mistake in this stage of evaluation can cause severe financial losses and missed opportunities for developers, lenders, and investors. Wind Resource Assessment: A Practical Guide to Developing a Wind Project shows readers how to achieve a high standard of resource assessment, reduce the uncertainty associated with long-term energy performance, and maximize the value of their project assets. Beginning with the siting, installation, and operation of a high-quality wind monitoring program, this book continues with methods of data quality control and validation, extrapolating measurements from anemometer height to turbine height, adjusting short-term observations for historical climate conditions, and wind flow modeling to account for terrain and surface conditions. In addition, Wind Resource Assessment addresses special topics such as: Worker safety Data security Remote sensing technology (sodar and lidar) Offshore resource assessment Impacts of climate change Uncertainty estimation Plant design and energy production estimatio Filled with important information ranging from basic fundamentals of wind to cutting-edge research topics, and accompanied by helpful references and discussion questions, this comprehensive text designed for an international audience is a vital reference that promotes consistent standards for wind assessment across the industry.
Book Synopsis Operational Weather Forecasting by : Peter Michael Inness
Download or read book Operational Weather Forecasting written by Peter Michael Inness and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-end process of forecast production, and bringing together a description of all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; with plenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues and examples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole process of forecast production, from understanding the nature of the forecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which to initialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (or models) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time and then interpreting the model output and putting it into a form which is relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is the generation of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales, often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecasting having been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations in practices between different forecasting centres. Thus the authors have tried to be as generic as possible when describing aspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despite the reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part to play in producing weather forecasts and this is described, along with the issue of forecast verification – how forecast centres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use this book to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-day applications of weather forecast production. In addition, professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional users of weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member of the RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series a valuable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecasting process Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the book discusses the practical choices that operational forecasting centres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use and when they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studies to contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemble methods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of ‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satellite imagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experience in both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather and Climate’
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309388805 Total Pages :351 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (93 download)
Book Synopsis Next Generation Earth System Prediction by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting by : Qingyun Duan
Download or read book Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting written by Qingyun Duan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hydrometeorological prediction involves the forecasting of the state and variation of hydrometeorological elements -- including precipitation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater, etc.-- at different space and time scales. Such forecasts form an important scientific basis for informing public of natural hazards such as cyclones, heat waves, frosts, droughts and floods. Traditionally, and at most currently operational centers, hydrometeorological forecasts are deterministic, “single-valued” outlooks: i.e., the weather and hydrological models provide a single best guess of the magnitude and timing of the impending events. These forecasts suffer the obvious drawback of lacking uncertainty information that would help decision-makers assess the risks of forecast use. Recently, hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approaches have begun to be developed and used by operational collection of hydrometeorological services. In contrast to deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are a multiple forecasts of the same events. The ensemble forecasts are generated by perturbing uncertain factors such as model forcings, initial conditions, and/or model physics. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they not only offer an estimate of the most probable future state of the hydrometeorological system, but also quantify the predictive uncertainty of a catastrophic hydrometeorological event occurring. The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), initiated in 2004, has signaled a new era of collaboration toward the development of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. By bringing meteorologists, hydrologists and hydrometeorological forecast users together, HEPEX aims to improve operational hydrometeorological forecast approaches to a standard that can be used with confidence by emergencies and water resources managers. HEPEX advocates a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework that consists of several basic building blocks. These components include:(a) an approach (typically statistical) for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs and generating statistically consistent space/time meteorological inputs for hydrological applications; (b) a land data assimilation approach for leveraging observation to reduce uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the hydrological system; (c) approaches that address uncertainty in model parameters (also called ‘calibration’); (d) a hydrologic model or other approach for converting meteorological inputs into hydrological outputs; and finally (e) approaches for characterizing hydrological model output uncertainty. Also integral to HEPS is a verification system that can be used to evaluate the performance of all of its components. HEPS frameworks are being increasingly adopted by operational hydrometeorological agencies around the world to support risk management related to flash flooding, river and coastal flooding, drought, and water management. Real benefits of ensemble forecasts have been demonstrated in water emergence management decision making, optimization of reservoir operation, and other applications.
Book Synopsis Aviation Turbulence by : Robert Sharman
Download or read book Aviation Turbulence written by Robert Sharman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-27 with total page 529 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anyone who has experienced turbulence in flight knows that it is usually not pleasant, and may wonder why this is so difficult to avoid. The book includes papers by various aviation turbulence researchers and provides background into the nature and causes of atmospheric turbulence that affect aircraft motion, and contains surveys of the latest techniques for remote and in situ sensing and forecasting of the turbulence phenomenon. It provides updates on the state-of-the-art research since earlier studies in the 1960s on clear-air turbulence, explains recent new understanding into turbulence generation by thunderstorms, and summarizes future challenges in turbulence prediction and avoidance.
Book Synopsis Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry by : Alberto Troccoli
Download or read book Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book showcases the burgeoning area of applied research at the intersection between weather and climate science and the energy industry. It illustrates how better communication between science and industry can help both sides. By opening a dialogue, scientists can understand the broader context for their work and the energy industry is able to keep track of and implement the latest scientific advances for more efficient and sustainable energy systems. Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry considers the lessons learned in establishing an ongoing discussion between the energy industry and the meteorological community and how its principles and practises can be applied elsewhere. This book will be a useful guiding resource for research and early career practitioners concerned with the energy industry and the new field of research known as energy meteorology.
Download or read book Hydrometeorology written by Kevin Sene and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-12-12 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes recent developments in hydrometeorological forecasting techniques for a range of timescales, from short term to seasonal and longer terms. It conveniently brings together both meteorological and hydrological aspects in a single volume.
Book Synopsis Automated Surface Observing System by :
Download or read book Automated Surface Observing System written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309380979 Total Pages :187 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (93 download)
Book Synopsis Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
