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Prices Rents And Rational Speculative Bubbles In The Sydney Housing Market
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Book Synopsis Prices, Rents and Rational Speculative Bubbles in the Sydney Housing Market by : Eden Hatzvi
Download or read book Prices, Rents and Rational Speculative Bubbles in the Sydney Housing Market written by Eden Hatzvi and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine whether asset pricing theory can explain residential property prices. Using quarterly data for Local Government Areas in Sydney from 1991 to 2006, we find little evidence that variations in price: rent ratios anticipate future real rent growth. Instead changes in price: rent ratios apparently reflect changing expectations about future discount factors. Some important geographical differences in the behaviour of property prices across metropolitan Sydney are identified. A significant proportion of the variation in property prices in outer western regions of Sydney is not explained by either rents or discount factors; pointing to a possible role for a speculative bubble.
Book Synopsis Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles by : Sanjay Kalra
Download or read book Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles written by Sanjay Kalra and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Housing Boom and Bust by : Thomas Sowell
Download or read book The Housing Boom and Bust written by Thomas Sowell and published by Basic Books (AZ). This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Book Synopsis Explosive Behaviour in Australian Housing Markets by : Philip Ji
Download or read book Explosive Behaviour in Australian Housing Markets written by Philip Ji and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using recently developed econometric procedures (Phillips, Wu and Yu, 2011; Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2015), we find evidence of temporary episodes of explosive behaviour in price-to-rent ratios for established houses, in five of Australia's largest cities. One interpretation of our results is that stochastic, rational bubbles were a feature of Australia's major housing markets; particularly during the early to mid-2000s. However, further analysis of each city's price-to-rent ratio indicates a very different pattern of behaviour in Sydney and Perth to that experienced in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra. For the latter three cities, we present evidence suggesting the explosive root tests are likely capturing the effects of a one-time structural break in their respective price-to-rent ratios. In any event, based on the estimated timing of the explosive episodes in Australia's housing markets, there is little evidence that what might be identified as house price bubbles had any important negative consequences for the wider economy. Despite the ability of the econometric procedures to provide a real-time signal of explosive behaviour, results from Australian housing markets, suggest policymakers need to be cautious in responding too aggressively to a positive signal from the tests.
Book Synopsis How Predictable? Rent Growth and Returns in Sydney and Melbourne Housing Markets by : Glenn Otto
Download or read book How Predictable? Rent Growth and Returns in Sydney and Melbourne Housing Markets written by Glenn Otto and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct rent-price ratios for houses and units in 82 local government areas in the Sydney and Melbourne markets for the period 1985/86-2015. Using this annual data we employ long-horizon regression techniques and find that rent-price ratios (i.e. rental yields) have predictive content for both future real housing returns and future growth rates of real rents. However rents and returns have greater predictability in Sydney than in Melbourne. Using a variance decomposition for the rent-price ratio implied by the present-value model, we find that variation in rental yields of units in Sydney is almost fully accounted for by expected changes in future rent growth and returns. There appears to be no role for rational bubbles in influencing the prices of Sydney units. In contrast - on average - lesser portions of the variance in rental yields on houses in Sydney (two thirds) and Melbourne (one third) and units in Melbourne (60 percent) is explained by expected future returns and rents. Evidently there is scope for (stochastic) rational bubbles to have affected these markets. Our results point to an important difference between the behaviour of residential housing markets and stock markets. In the stock market, current changes in dividend-price ratios do not appear to reflect important variations in future dividend growth. Our results for Sydney and Melbourne suggest that current changes in rent-price ratios do signal future changes in rent growth.
Book Synopsis Asset Price Bubbles by : William Curt Hunter
Download or read book Asset Price Bubbles written by William Curt Hunter and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.
Book Synopsis Property Asset Bubbles by : Patric H. Hendershott
Download or read book Property Asset Bubbles written by Patric H. Hendershott and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The cyclical variation in office construction, vacancies, rents and values over the last decade has been enormous throughout the world. Reasons advanced for this enormity include prolifigate lenders, egotistical developers, and even rational behavior in the face of uncertainty and long construction periods. Our analysis of the Sydney office market suggests a fourth contributing factor: the failure of investors to understand the workings of property markets. Given the incentives of developers to build when value rises substantially above replacement cost and not to build when value is low relative to replacement cost, the property market has to be mean reverting. We provide direct evidence that Sydney investors did not incorporate mean reversion into their facancy rate forecasts at the cyclical trough and as a result under valued properties. We provide indirect evidence that mean reversion of cash flows was not incorporated at the cyclical peak and that this triggered excessive construction and vacancies. That is, the Sydney office market in the late 1980s is another example of quot;excess price volatilityquot; or an asset price bubble.
Book Synopsis Bubbles and Crashes in the Australian Residential Property Market by : Dirk G. Baur
Download or read book Bubbles and Crashes in the Australian Residential Property Market written by Dirk G. Baur and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of Australian property prices, the relationships between cities, houses and units, the stock market and monetary policy. Using monthly house and unit prices for all eight capital cities we identify extended periods of explosive positive price changes followed by comparatively small corrections and no crashes. A comparison with Australian equity prices further reveals that the average risk and return are more favorable in the housing market emphasizing fundamental differences of the two markets such as liquidity and short-sale constraints. We also find evidence for financial contagion from the equity market to the housing market. A Vector Autoregression (VAR) shows that house price changes have a relatively strong effect on cash rate changes and thus monetary policy. The relative stability of Australian property prices over the last 20 years suggests that policy makers played a role by providing an accommodating environment.
Book Synopsis Fundamental and Speculative Demands for Housing by : Weicheng Lian
Download or read book Fundamental and Speculative Demands for Housing written by Weicheng Lian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-19 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper separates the roles of demand for housing services and belief about future house prices in a house price cycle, by utilizing a feature of user-cost-of-housing that it is sensitive to demand for housing services only. Optimality conditions of producing housing services determine user-cost-of-housing and the elasticity of substitution between land and structures in producing housing services. I find that the impact of demand for housing services on house prices is amplified by a small elasticity of substitution, and demand explained four fifths of the U.S. house price boom in the 2000s.
Book Synopsis Famous First Bubbles by : Peter M. Garber
Download or read book Famous First Bubbles written by Peter M. Garber and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001-08-24 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.
Book Synopsis Housing and the Financial Crisis by : Edward L. Glaeser
Download or read book Housing and the Financial Crisis written by Edward L. Glaeser and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-08-19 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional wisdom held that housing prices couldn’t fall. But the spectacular boom and bust of the housing market during the first decade of the twenty-first century and millions of foreclosed homeowners have made it clear that housing is no different from any other asset in its ability to climb and crash. Housing and the Financial Crisis looks at what happened to prices and construction both during and after the housing boom in different parts of the American housing market, accounting for why certain areas experienced less volatility than others. It then examines the causes of the boom and bust, including the availability of credit, the perceived risk reduction due to the securitization of mortgages, and the increase in lending from foreign sources. Finally, it examines a range of policies that might address some of the sources of recent instability.
Download or read book A Global House Price Bubble? written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Housing Affordability by : John Daley
Download or read book Housing Affordability written by John Daley and published by . This book was released on 2018-03-04 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Ideology of Home Ownership by : R. Ronald
Download or read book The Ideology of Home Ownership written by R. Ronald and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-05-28 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demand for owner-occupied housing has expanded dramatically across modern-industrialized societies in recent years leading to volatile increases in residential property values. This book explores the rise of modern home-ownership as a cultural, socio-political and ideological phenomenon.
Book Synopsis Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel by : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Download or read book Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-06 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve’s survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante risk taking by banks (as measured by the risk rating of the bank’s loan portfolio) is negatively associated with increases in short-term policy interest rates. This relationship is less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods when banks’ capital erodes, such as episodes of financial and economic distress. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability and suggest that monetary policy has a bearing on the riskiness of banks and financial stability more generally.
Book Synopsis Price Dynamics in China by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Price Dynamics in China written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-09-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chinese inflation, particularly non-food inflation, has been surprisingly modest in recent years. We find that supply factors, including those captured through upstream foreign commodity and producer prices, have been important drivers of non-food inflation, as has foreign demand for Chinese goods. Domestic demand and monetary conditions seem less important, possibly reflecting a large domestic output gap generated by many years of high investment. Inflation varies systemically within China, with richer (and urban) provinces having lower, more stable, inflation, but this urban inflation also influence that in lower-income provinces. Higher Mainland food inflation also raises inflation in non-Mainland China.
Book Synopsis Market Analysis for Real Estate by : Rena Mourouzi-Sivitanidou
Download or read book Market Analysis for Real Estate written by Rena Mourouzi-Sivitanidou and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-08-06 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market Analysis for Real Estate is a comprehensive introduction to how real estate markets work and the analytical tools and techniques that can be used to identify and interpret market signals. The markets for space and varied property assets, including residential, office, retail, and industrial, are presented, analyzed, and integrated into a complete understanding of the role of real estate markets within the workings of contemporary urban economies. Unlike other books on market analysis, the economic and financial theory in this book is rigorous and well integrated with the specifics of the real estate market. Furthermore, it is thoroughly explained as it assumes no previous coursework in economics or finance on the part of the reader. The theoretical discussion is backed up with numerous real estate case study examples and problems, which are presented throughout the text to assist both student and teacher. Including discussion questions, exercises, several web links, and online slides, this textbook is suitable for use on a variety of degree programs in real estate, finance, business, planning, and economics at undergraduate and MSc/MBA level. It is also a useful primer for professionals in these disciplines.
